Why Jacinda needs to lose this election

By   /   September 19, 2017  /   91 Comments

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I believe that there will be a financial crisis next year (see my recent ’New Zealand’s Cyclical Growth Contractions’, 12 Sep 2017), and that Labour at present is ill-equipped to handle such a crisis. Further, it may take a major financial crisis (with Labour in Opposition) to drag Labour into the present century, just as the 1930s’ crisis belatedly dragged Labour into the twentieth century.

I think that Jacinda Ardern has the potential to be an excellent, even a great Prime Minister. Certainly she promises to be much better than Helen Clark. Ardern wants to address (rather than ignore) the issues that arise, to find and promote innovative solutions, and to build the coalitions required to act. She is hamstrung by a party that remains firmly in the twentieth century.

 

Andrew Little tried to bring Labour into the 21st century, with his emphasis on the Future of Work, and his understanding that a Universal Basic Income would be necessary to arrest and ultimately reverse the post-1984 pattern of increasing inequality. The Labour rot set in after the Future of Work Conference of March 2016, when Labour turned away from these initiatives, too afraid to be even just a little bit bold. Instead we saw Labour (and the Greens) tout the austerian ‘Fiscal Responsibility’ mantra, while offering little more than increased spending in health and education.

 

I believe that there will be a financial crisis next year (see my recent ’New Zealand’s Cyclical Growth Contractions’, 12 Sep 2017), and that Labour at present is ill-equipped to handle such a crisis. Further, it may take a major financial crisis (with Labour in Opposition) to drag Labour into the present century, just as the 1930s’ crisis belatedly dragged Labour into the twentieth century.

 

I have suggested a simple income tax policy which could be interpreted either as a tax-cut for all lower earners (and only people earning less than $70,000) or as a way-post towards an affordable universal basic income (see my ‘Letter to Labour about Income Tax’, 21 Aug 2017). (If elected this month, Labour could implement this simple tax scale in 2018 without breaching its promise to wait until 2021 to implement tax reform.) I sense that Jacinda Ardern would be partial to such a tax change – given her explicit commitment to universal superannuation – and given that Bill Rowling did something similar in the 1973 Budget (along with a ‘Property Speculation Tax’) to what I suggested in that Letter.

 

In 1931, Labour dodged a bullet by losing the election that year. Thanks to an overhaul of leadership and policies, Labour arrived in 1935 and 1938 to oversee the most important social and monetary reforms in New Zealand’s history. At the same time, Labour Governments elected in the United Kingdom and in Australia in 1929 – both elected before the Wall Street crash – become casualties in 1931 of that crisis. Labour in the United Kingdom was too fiscally conservative. Labour (at Federal level) in Australia was too radical too soon. The upshot was that both the United Kingdom and Australia had bland conservative post-crisis governments, whereas in the late 1930s Labour in New Zealand was able to build a broad progressive coalition for change; a coalition of interests the likes of which few countries have ever seen since then.

The next ten years – 2017 to 2027 – represent an unprecedented intellectual opportunity to develop bottom-up non-partisan thinking around public property rights (public equity), and also around modern monetary principles (public debt). Further, I sense that the generation now in their 20s is up for it.

 

Labour has some good people. 2018/19 is the time for them to break their shackle of Rogernomics. My sense is that Labour needs one more term in Opposition to caste out its mercantilists (Winston Peters is a mercantilist) and its commitment to neoliberal macroeconomics. The next couple of years may not be pretty, neither for New Zealand nor for political and economic dinosaurs.

 

I look forward to Labour in the 2020s redefining progressive politics, and helping to provide a new template for other more complex polities to reform themselves.

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91 Comments

  1. esoteric pineapples says:

    A lot of species can’t afford another three years of National – starting with the Maui dolphin and blue whales off the south Taranaki whose habitat is about to be destroyed by off sure mining. The same applies to areas of the West Coast about to be mined, white bait and long fin eels, et etc. Another three years will take some species to the point where is no return.

    • Mary Paul (id:mpaul) says:

      Species child and mother too!

    • Nick J says:

      Totally agree, our fresh water creatures are in a death spiral, our marine not much better. They must come before any human considerations because without them we are nothing, just another species due for extinction.

    • Gramscite says:

      And the human species

      [Published after 7PM, 23 September. – Scarletmod]

  2. patricia bremner says:

    We have waited too long already!!!

    This would allow the last assets to be sold off to “Overseas interests”

    We need to win this!!! Let’s do this!!!!

  3. patricia bremner says:

    We have waited too long already!!!

    This would allow the last assets to be sold off to “Overseas interests”

    We need to win this!!! Let’s do this!!!!

  4. patricia bremner says:

    We have waited too long already!!!

    This would allow the last assets to be sold off to “Overseas interests”

    We need to win this!!! Let’s do this!!!!

  5. roy cartland says:

    Yikes! This aligns to what Bomber has suggested in previous posts (2020 is the year).

    Thanks for giving me something to cling to if the haters somehow prevail again.

  6. CLEANGREEN says:

    “Labour has some good people. 2018/19 is the time for them to break their shackle of Rogernomics.”

    Good article thought provoking Keith, you are an asset to our country because we need a ‘Rankin thinking outside the square’ policy as we all dont think of the possiblities that may occur.

    Rogernomiics was the sinlge policy that has ruined our once proud solid
    performing resilient ecomony thast kept all our “essential services tocking along” but sinnce everything wasn’privatised’ we aretruly rogered now with broken state housing, hospitals, schools, roads, rail, local councils, electricity systems, health sevices, clinics, jails, and ACC services.

    We are heading into another depression sooner than later, and Auckland will survive the fall if labour reverse their continuim of rogernomics.

    All labour now needs to win the election is to say “we are disbanning all rogernomic’s policies.”

    • Jerko says:

      What makes you think they have turned away from the Future Of Work initiatives. They have been working on these for three years. Where were you Keith Rankin? Did you offer your insight when they were asking for input and did you join one of their policy groups? It’s all very well to put your opinions in a column and or submit one opinion but if you want to change the way things are, you need to get in there and do it. I volunteered a lot of information on Health care and the system failure. I have no idea whether they have take any of it on board except for an email from one of the committee asking about my ideas on Trauma Centers run and paid for by ACC. It may be that they don’t want to disclose all of their initiatives because National will sure as hell latch onto it and claim it as their policy.

  7. Dean Reynolds says:

    Don’t be so fucking stupid – the poor of NZ cannot withstand 3 more years of this shitty government. Based on your theoretical bullshit, you’ve obviously never had to bring up a family on the minimum wage. Jacinda as PM after this Saturday, will be infinitely preferable to thieving, lying English

  8. Louis says:

    What? so you think National is equipped to handle such a crisis? We have seen a self interested National govt crash, burn and fail this country and people particularly at the worst of times. So yeah nah Keith disagree with you, theres too many people suffering already without National given another mandate to kick them further down the street. Jacinda needs to WIN this election, lives depend upon it.

  9. syd says:

    when you have nothing, waiting for more propitious circumstances isn’t really an option

  10. David says:

    A recession is coming, it is normal part of the business cycle. In NZ, the housing market coming off the boil is usually the first indicator. The US has had the longest economic expansion for decades and is reaching the last stanza.

    If Labour wins, and recession comes in the next couple of years. Little of their agenda is on the cards. Especially if they’ve ruled out big tax changes.

  11. countryboy says:

    Oh, that’s just fucking great.
    I entered my beautiful life with joyous vigour and have watched, with ever increasing horror, at how that life was unpicked by scum bag neo liberal politicians. Thirty three years, the best years of my life stolen from me by greedy lying scum fuckers!
    Ok. It’s not been all bad. It’s just that I know, it could have been a whole lot better. I mean a WHOLE LOT better. Now, as I wait travel to see my girl in Auckland, I know I’ll see there poor bastards living in the streets, living in cars, for fucks sake, living in miserable hopelessness and as I write, I see our forests being loaded by the millions of lineal meters on to boats to ship to fuck knows where as thousands of Kiwis don’t have roofs over their heads. As those same Kiwis cower in fear of some little fucker with a fluro vest and a clip board insisting the dwangs need to be at 450 mm centres and the joists must hoist the floors over the bearers or bad Bob the builder will be neutered by the courts ! FUCK THAT ! Just grab a few nails, find a road side, build a dwelling. Tar and feather the little freak with the clip board and tie him/ her to a post for eating later at the barbi.
    I was like you in some ways @ Keith Rankin. I know, instinctually, that the next twelve months are going to be dire. I too, thought that maybe it’d be better for national to retain its ‘ leadership’ of our ‘ nation’ ,if, for no other reason than to be seen to choke on their own shit.
    But I have a better idea.
    I hope to Gods Labour ‘get in’. Ideally with a Green partner.
    Then, I pray to the same Gods, that they go on a rampage of righteous wars against the traitors who did this to us. I want to see imprisonments after inquiries. I want to see mass sacking at the MSM’s. I want to see a free to air our-tax-funded TV station or several. I want to see kath ryan sacked off RNZ along with jim mora, fascist apologists the pair of the fuckers. Spreading their fungi like a hot, tropical foot.
    I don’t want to see snivelling, snide, brinkmanship anymore. I’m fucking over slithery , back door, dark ally shit. I want to see DIRECT accountability BEFORE tax promises, better living conditions, safer water, etc. Fuck all that. We know how to deal with that. Thanks to scum Nat’s we’re all well skilled at surviving.
    I want to see G-Nat blood run black in the gutters ! We all do.
    “ Lets do this ! “

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      100000% COUNTRY
      You can speak for my whole family there, yes lets do this!!!!!

    • Teresa says:

      good on you country boy – couldn’t have said it better!

    • Sarah says:

      Spoken for me too, exactly how I feel.
      I’ve spent the best part of today knocking on doors to encourage people out to vote in one of the poorest areas, and guess what 99.9% have now voted. I’m shattered but this has given me hope.

      [Published after 7PM, 23 September. – Scarletmod]

  12. Samwise says:

    Excellent post, Keith. Some great points made. One question though; if Labour loses the election an an economic crisis hits us, wouldn’t the Nats attack the poorest in society by cutting back on services and raising user pays charges? It’s what Key did, post GFC.

    • Nitrium Nitrium says:

      aka “austerity”. Agreed, I think I’d rather have a compassionate leader than someone who is driven by religious/economic principle. I tdoes mean she will be voted out in 2020 though, since Labour will get the blame for the (imo inevitable) crisis.

    • Sam Sam says:

      Don’t know the exact figure but a lot of New Zealand’s industrial tooling is coming to the end of it’s use by date. Even Tauranga Port Cranes are second hand with a bit of paint. Who ever thought those things could handle 2000+ conex containers is a muppet. That’s going to take at least 50 years to unfuck. And don’t get me started on trying to truck shipping containers over the Kaimai ranges. Lots of pain ahead.

      • CLEANGREEN says:

        Excactly Sam,

        But National have been bought by the truck lobby for years now and are drven by trucking interests untilthe deisel stops pouring out of the pumps.

        We need a Government that is brave enough to reverse National’s plan to kill rail off, and restore rail as the prime mover of freight, that is the only way back to sanity.

        • Sam Sam says:

          Knowing National they’ll try and Shepard in a Tunel under the Kaimai’s. I’m mean it’s like do these people understand New Zealand sits on a Volcanic cliff edge. Such a disaster they are.

    • Aaron says:

      Although National has attacked the poor they actually borrowed heavily to avoid serious and sudden cutbacks in government services since they knew this would spell electoral doom. I presume they would do the same again.

  13. Great for those who are not in urgent need of change. Let them eat cake.

  14. roy cartland says:

    Not quite convinced.

    That was the argument behind Trump – let him in and the revolutionaries will wake up. Might happen one day, but he’s still fuckin things up a hell of a lot in the meantime.

    And if NAT gets in again, they’ll know it’s their last bite of the cherry. They’ll go hell-for-leather to make the situation irreparable, at least without significant violent revolt. Risky much?

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      National are about tofinish off NZ by sigbing TPPA and let the Global elite come here and rape our last vestages of every money making comodity and then leave us to bleed to death with massive debt and disaster.!!!!!

  15. Dave says:

    I am sorry Keith, but from what I have seen from Jacinda for some years now is a willingness to address major issues that need changing. Being Prime Minister, will allow Jacinda if elected as PM to possibly take a different tack that will be more fairer than the punitive sanctions Key/National placed upon the less well off citizens in our society.

    If as you have predicted 2018 brings another financial crisis, then the Government of the day has a duty to respond as best they see fit, supported by their coalition partners, and supply and confidence arrangements if required. It also gives that Govt of the day the mandate to respond outside of previous election promises, since the PREFU does not foresee the financial crisis that you have predicted, and which may eventuate.

    Cullen/Clarke/Labour were great financial stewards of our economy, and had they been at the helm during the GFC, Labour would have seen us safely through the crisis, no worse as a nation than National, and most definitely in a manner that would have been a lot fairer for all New Zealanders and not just the wealthy.

    I have total confidence that Jacinda, Labour and their supporting parties if elected this weekend as government, are more than capable to meet the challenges that your predicted financial crisis will bring.

    Not only will they meet such a challenge, the importance of Labour being seen to be able to successfully negotiate NZ’s path through such difficult times will evaporate National’s ability to then claim Labour are unable to work effectively through challenging financial times as National are incorrectly claiming this election.

    Let Jacinda cut her teeth as PM this election and watch a more inclusive society benefit through the good times and the bad.

  16. savenz says:

    Totally disagree. “Why Jacinda needs to lose this election”.

    Even if there is a financial crisis National has shown absolutely zero ability to handle any crisis, financial or otherwise. They claim there is no crisis in housing or health care for example.

    National’s approach in the economy would be to sell of state assets, increase polluting industries (the only ones they seem to be able to identify with) and use that money to bribe other countries and cronies to get free trade agreements that will decimate NZ and increase ‘trade’ with countries like Saudi Arabia.

    At the same time they will ramp up immigration in NZ further increasingly stress on housing, hospitals and congestion.

    National will then increase taxes to user pays, decrease social welfare to those who need it and increase the punishment culture to beneficiaries.

    In short no matter how bad the economy may or may not be, it is very important to vote National OUT this election for people and the planet.

  17. Dean Reynolds says:

    You’re an idiot Rankin. How much longer do the marginalised have to suffer to fulfill your loony theoretical views?

  18. Historian Pete says:

    “It may take a major financial crisis[with Labour in Opposition ] to drag Labour into the present century,just as the1930’s crisis belatedly dragged Labour into the Twentieth century” .
    Quite so, Keith.But I dare say that there are actors on the right who fear a situation as you portray as well.Like Gareth Morgan for instance, who may fear that a financial crisis will midwife a new socialist order, threatening their accumulated riches! So, Gareth Morgan: THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG!!Gareth would like us to believe that his primary motivation in entering politics with the Top party is to create a more egalitarian and democratic NZ.Nothing could be further from the truth , in my opinion.His motivations are revealed by two of his policies.Namely, giving NZ a second House of Parliament and introducing a Constitution.If you look at countries with constitutions you see an ever widening gap between the Super wealthy 1% and the rest of the population.If you look at the U.S. you will see that the constitution has stopped any efforts to bring about any equality.This is not surprising as this was the reasons the Founders introduced a constitution in the first place. They feared the power of the common people, and they cleverly introduced a hurdle that would stultify any efforts in that direction.The U.S. Constitution has presided over the greatest inequality that exists in the developed world! And there is the two Houses of Parliament, the Senate and the House of Representatives in the U.S.[Congress].They also were created to protect the wealth and position of the Landowners and to prevent democracy. The House of Lords, aptly named, in the U.K., is also just such an instrument to protect the rights and property of the wealthy, the Aristocracy and the monarchy . Need I say more!!
    So, basically the TOP policies are there to protect the wealth of the Oligarchs in waiting in N.Z. The U.S. is now an Oligarchy, having ursurped the Democracy of the people.Lord Gareth is anticipating taking up his rightful position in N.Z. as we follow in the footsteps of the more progressive U.S. and U.K. And he will be supported by the ever growing number of the Super Rich and their sycophants , that are naturally increasing in N.Z. with the efforts of the National Party government . N.Z has become a bolt hole for the oligarchs of the world ,people like billionaire Peter Thiel,connected to the five Eyes and of course an adviser to U.S. President Herr Trump.Thiel was given instant citizenship by another one of our home grown one percenter oligarchs in waiting Sir John Key. And guess who was supportive of Peter Thiel’s instant citizenship? Founder of Trade Me Sam Morgan wrote a letter in Support: “We should be encouraging more such immigrants”. Get the picture? Birds of a feather flock together.
    So, a N.Z. constitution and upper house as a TOP policy is a plan so cunning that you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel! Do not be fooled by this insidious TOP party Trojan Horse!!!

    • Sam Sam says:

      Gerrymandering is a blight on democracy, and organisations that engage in it deserve to have their collective teeth kicked in, irrespective of their country, electorat, political party or ideology. Non-partisan electoral commissions should be the ones drawing electoral boundaries, not the people who have a direct interest in how the election turns out. but under the current paradigm the people with the power to stop gerrymandering are the ones who benefit most from it. Hence why constitutionally justified judicial intervention is such an interesting option. Or we could just roll constitution powers back into legislation so that only land owners can vote on it.

      If you want an example of the benefits of having an upper and lower Houses of Parliament, the 2013 Australian Election saw the election of an Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party senator and almost saw the election of an Australian Sports Party senator.

      http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit…te-in-new-hung-parliament-20130908-2tdqm.html

      It’s highly telling of Australians that the two fringe senators elected are not socialist fools or weasels but a sports bloke and a car bloke. Imagine an Upper House sending back legislation to Parliament House. Then there’d actually have to do there jobs and explain policy to there constituents. Or perhaps Māori Council could be given primacy in a future Upper House, having the power to send legislation back to parliament.

      As for the rest of your comments about oligarchy. I’m mean WTF? Surely it’s also worth considering non-elected branches of the government i.e WINZ culture, and the entire judiciary that makes up the DeepState. These powerful groups have their own required qualifications and their own cultures, and they disproportionately recruit from certain sections of the country.

      None of which is wrong in itself. It’s just that the iron law of oligarchy is in effect. Given time, every organisation develops oligarchic elements.

  19. Black Lemming says:

    Not sure we need another 3 years of record suicides , filthy rivers , massive child poverty , 40,000 homeless , overimigration ,unaffordable housing and being ruled by corporations under the TPP

    Kieth is right to highlight that automation and the mass displacement of labour will require a UBI or as I prefer, a Universal Citizens Allowance .( UCA ) We also need a concerted effort on Climate change , because as Russell Norman say’s ” there’s no Jobs on a dead planet .

    Both of these are well beyond Nationals ” business as usual model “. Its a logical impossibility to grow infinitely in a finite world so the neoliberal ” business as usual ” model contains the seeds of its own destruction and with a huge cost to our world ecosystem and quality of life. We can and we must do better .

    John Campbells and Nigel Laters innovative TV show Whats next gave the sort of critical thinking required to look past the 3 year election cycle and really produce a whole new vision of how our society needs to adapt.

    Overall the most progressive vision of a sustainable NZ is currently the Greens and Tops have some great social policy as well .30 years ago they were just a bunch of hippy tree huggin scruffy dope smokin loonies .But saving the planet has become a priority and the worse climate breakdown becomes the more they will become the common sense party of choice.

    Anybody here not want to save the world ?

    Thought so .

    Kieth raises good points but do we really need another 3 years of National ? I for one have had enough .

  20. e-clectic says:

    Sounds like a rationale for having TOP alongside Labour – but they are monetary conservatives – Democrats for Social Credit or even NZF could be up for modern monetary principles.

  21. Louis says:

    After what the last 9 years of a National govt has shown you think National is equipped to handle such a crisis?

  22. Louis says:

    Too many people are suffering in poverty and homelessness and neglect under a National government, why would you want that to continue?

  23. ZZ says:

    If Labour loses, the poor people will be pissed on even more as soon as the crisis hits

    • darth smith says:

      what we are looking at is nz households that are screwed paying there debts off isn’t going to happen.

  24. esoteric pineapples says:

    A lot of species can’t afford to wait another three years. They will be beyond the brink by then.

  25. Andrea says:

    “It’s capitalism’s dirty little secret – but don’t worry – I won’t tell anybody!”

    Can’t tell anybody.

    So many think the money for landlords and Working for Families is giving the wrong sort of people ‘unearned money’. Reality is – it’s going straight back, with very little in the way of quality or improvement to show for it. Corporate welfare under the veil of fake benevolence.

    I’m not convinced by this piece: Labour being ill-equipped to face another GFC. That implies that the only resources Labour can call on are those sitting on the comfy seats in Parliament. That’s plain wrong, surely?

    I know Treasury is a bit of a lost cause: chronically cautious and raised in the mire of neo-liberal clap-trap; yet there are others. Surely there are others out there for hire? Surely we have people who learned the helpful lessons of the last GFC? If we haven’t, all that policy trialling and pain was for nothing.

    And why, oh why do we have to endure another three years of the neither wit nor imagination crew currently pretending to economic competence?

    If this next GFC comes the the frizzly aftermath of the braggadocio boys (Kim and Trump) playing war games, there may be other things to concern us. Not money.

  26. Louis says:

    Are my comments floating around in cyber space?

  27. Barry says:

    Labour has been in the position before when the economy had been less than vibrant, for example the Muldoon government legacy, yet they managed that situation reasonably well.
    I agree that the next few years don’t look so rosy, with the manufactured 3.5 billion surplus for this year reverting to the usual state of deficits as announced by National.
    But we just can’t carry on with this government for another three years.Their short sighted vision is causing huge social disruptions. My son is involved in tourism and has been stood down without pay because of the fuel crisis, as bookings have been cancelled.
    All seems to be very brittle, we need to remove National from government before New Zealand degenerates further.

  28. Quicksilver says:

    Yeah nah.
    Labour can break out of it’s neoliberal shackles on the Govt. benches thanks.
    Crisis is opportunity – so if there is one, it will allow room for a more socialist type of response than what was imposed by the treasonous Roger Douglas in response to the “crisis” of 1984.

  29. jpo73 says:

    I’m not quite sure you have your numbers right on tax-free below $70k. IRD data from 2015 show that only 15% of the population earn above 70k. Only 6% earn above $100k. I assume the 70k tax-free band will also have to apply for those earners. That’s not many people or much taxable income available to pay for Government services, pensions, and benefits.

    http://www.ird.govt.nz/aboutir/external-stats/revenue-refunds/income-distrib-individual-customers/income-distrib-individ-customers.html

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      JPO73 – No no no no no!!!

      It is time to rob the rich as they have done to us for years.

      Time it is to feed, cloth house and employ the poor now!!!!!!!

      • Jpo73 says:

        I don’t understand. A 70k tax free band is a tax cut for most New Zealand PAYE taxpayers. Somebody on 100k at the moment pays $23,920 in tax. $14k of that tax is in the first 70k of income. To get the same tax take for a person on 100k they would need to be taxed at 80% over 70k.

  30. Historian Pete says:

    Are my comments about Gareth Morgan and TOP not published because he is a sponsor?

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Gareth Morgan is a ‘rich prick’ (his words)

      Gareth Mogans words are juist a ‘cheap shot’ he is using to get his ‘jollies’.

      If Gareth Morgan was ‘genuine’ when did he ever dole out some of his money to feed, house & cloth the poor?????

      Trash he is; – just a rich prick.

      • Sam Sam says:

        When you’re rich you can just pay people to feed and cloth people. And get even richer doing it.

      • e-clectic says:

        It’s fashionable to diss Gareth Morgan but he does dish out his money for – perhaps read this page and then have a crack at him.

        http://morganfoundation.org.nz/funding-applications-and-donations/

        • Historian Pete says:

          What Gareth Morgan is doing is the modern day equivalent to the Lord of the manor sending out his minions to distribute rancid cabbages and baskets of rotten apples to the deserving poor of his Barony. How marvellous and condescending of Lord Gareth of Weasel Manor! I look to a time when charity is not needed because everyone has a well paying job who can work, and those that can’t are given a good standard of living.We actually could afford to do this right now if the greedy like Lord Gareth and Sir John Key did not have such an unfair and unsustainable share of resources.

        • Sam Sam says:

          Are you ducking me bro?

          Pushing the Landed Gentry narrative is a big fucken yawn.

          You will thank us later when we’ve changed the narrative from individual accountability to community accountability.

          And that starts with convincing the oldies to save there own children.

  31. Marc says:

    What New Zealand definitely seems to face is major constraints in the form of banks not being able to provide more credit, as they would over-leverage and take on too great risk.

    There has been much borrowing for those investing and buying on the price inflated housing market, developers have taken on projects to build, that are now becoming un-affordable, as there has been price hikes for building materials, there is shortage of labour, costs shot up and are not going to come down any time soon.

    Infrastructure is not able to cope, nor are services, with the population growth and boom in tourism, we see right now, what happens when parts of the system break down, Air New Zealand has to cancel flights, and other restrictions are imposed, which will damage New Zealand’s reputation.

    Look at health services, at public transport, aviation, shipping, rail, it all needs urgent investment, but cities like Auckland cannot borrow more, as they risk losing their credit ratings.

    We still depend on fossil fuels, people have bought high numbers of new petrol and diesel powered cars over recent years, and we are missing the bus to prepare to invest in alternatives, costing much also.

    In Auckland the East West Link that the government and Council want to ram through, it will cost more than any roading project anywhere in the world, setting us back 2 billion, likely more, if it goes ahead.

    This country has been put in between a rock and a hard place, it is perhaps not even necessary for a financial crisis to strike us, the new government, no matter which party wins, will face HUGE challenges. That is what worries me about Labour taking over government this weekend.

    Not that I want another Nat led government, but Keith has a point here, but then again, any crisis that may hit, it could well be a global one, and then we need progressive alternatives everywhere, it may not matter whether Labour are in charge then.

    John Key and his inheritor Bill English will go down in history as the greatest economic bandits, or charlatans in New Zealand history, having screwed up things to a degree, it is near criminal.

    Capacity constraints are everywhere, we will not be able to fix things in many years to come, yes, things may well get worse before they get better.

    And to change this, we must first put a stop on mass immigration, as that will make everything even worse. Only those most urgently needed, doctors, nurses, psychologists, engineers, scientists and technicians with needed expertise should be allowed in, if Kiwis have not got the skills to fill the jobs. All others must be told, no thanks, we are booked out and FULL for a fair few years to come.

  32. frank says:

    and if your wrong and the worlds central banks manage to keep the balls in the air for a few more years can NZ society survive another term of corruption?

  33. Danyl Strype says:

    Certainly if there is a choice between a Labour-NZ First government, or a National-NZ First government, I think it would be much better to let English and co swallow that dead rat. No doubt they’d happily lift corporate taxes and start imposing tolls on the motorways we all just paid for (both NZ First policies by the way), but it would make it clear to voters who want change that letting NZ First make your choice for you is not the way to get it.

  34. Cemetery Jones says:

    I usually like Keith Rankin’s analysis, and however much it would seem to me that we urgently need a change (maybe not for me myself but certainly for those kids sleeping in cars, garages, or their local Marae), there’s a definite logic to his point about economic cycles (see Keith’s blog post in the link), and we are after all in a fourth turning period.

    Plus, even if Ardern loses, she has revived the fortunes of the Labour party to such an extent that she’s going to be unassailable from within and arguably just so from without. A fourth term National government plunged into economic crisis would once and for all end any arguments that the policies failed because ‘unfinished business’ rather than because they suck, are cruel, and amount to the hollowing out of society. Jacinda 2020 would have the mandate to actually follow through on Future of Work and maybe even go further. The chance for a genuine reset of likes we haven’t seen since the 1930s.

  35. Louis says:

    After 9 years National has proven time and again they are ill-equipped to handle any crisis, financial or otherwise.

  36. Louis says:

    Too many people are hurting living in poverty homelessness and have been neglected by this National government. Time for change is now.

  37. Louis says:

    hey thanks Daily blog for putting everyone’s comments up!!!

  38. bert says:

    Hey Keith, Why Jacinda needs to WIN this election, is written in David McPherson’s mental health piece, otherwise how many more “record Deaths” will there be.

    So whilst you look at this through the eyes of the almighty dollar, I look at this through the eyes of the soul.

  39. CLEANGREEN says:

    Jacinda is a one in a lifetime leader, I’m inspired so if she turned my 73yr old ingrained head around I will give her the benefit of my doubt to give her my vote and use the other vote to keep NZ First afloat as Winston is also a very wise old head we need to keep the young ones on track to turn this country around for all not just the bloody rich pricks who dont have any moral campass now as my dear departed mum always said “money is the root of all evil”

    Boy was my Mum right there.

    Lets do this. – ilovejacinda.

  40. Nick J says:

    Keith, we are approaching what Steve Keen describes as a Minsky Moment, yes there is an economic train wreck coming. So to challenge your thinking why would we wait for this to come in as the cavalry on white steeds? Would we not be better off understanding this is coming and holding the position already?

    So to reality: can the worse off in our community wait another 3 years for relief whilst concurrently being expected to sit through a crisis in the gentle hands of Bennett and Collins?

    Can the environment, rivers and threatened species be left in the gentle hands of Nick Smith and Fonterra / Fed Farmers aka National in Gumboots? Are they expected to die waiting?

    To lose and hope for more propitious times seems to me to be a non option.

    • Sam Sam says:

      That’s Professor Steve Keen to you nub.

      It’s one thing to know the truth about the economy and its a totally different thing to build consensus around sound monetary policy.

      One reason building consensus around sound monatary policy is so difficult is people no one understands it. Not totally, Proffesor Steve Keen understands and has dedicated his whole career to building consensus around Hetrodox Economics. Investors who want to make money picked up his work pretty early. But making money isn’t apart of the economic orthodoxy that says models can be made to fit data. And investors have a word for these nubs: Sucker

      • Nick J says:

        Whats with the “nub” and “sucker”? Do you want the poor to suffer another 3 years of Natz? Who cares if Steve is Prof?

        • Sam Sam says:

          Yeah, great, so you’ve pointed out the obvious that the rich and powerful with in agro business basically pushed off the majority from productive land essential to the survivability of complex leaders and cities.

          Again, thanks for pointing that out.

          Actually I’ll cut short the banana rant thesis that voter participation fuelled by butthurt are incapable of sustaining popular polling. Detailed policy might sustain popular polling.

    • Barry says:

      Totally agree, we just can’t wait.

  41. Glenn says:

    I’m with Countryboy. 33 years of Friedman neoliberalism. May its terminal decline start Saturday night. We have waited too long!

  42. Michael says:

    Meat and potatoes middle New Zealand is scared of tax, Maoris and strong women leaders. A large number of voters are too selfish or are to uneducated to vote for a party with policies that help the vulnerable. And too many young people, who continue to get shafted by National, are disengaged from politics and are not voting. I am bursting with frustration and I tremble with anger. Educate and politicise young people – it is the only way forward.

  43. Cynical jester says:

    No anyone who wants anything but a labour govt on saturday I’ll hold personal responsible the next time one of my mates kill themselves.

  44. Priss says:

    unfortunately it may take a property values “crisis” to get rid of this government.

  45. […] KEITH RANKIN IS WRONG about Jacinda needing to lose this election. If that’s what happens on Saturday: if National somehow hauls itself back onto the Treasury Benches; then it is the purest folly to suppose that the election of 2020 will be a Labour walkover. If the Centre-Left cannot win in 2017, then the question that begs to be answered is: “Can it win at all?” […]

  46. Gramscite says:

    Whilst I agree that Labour is ill equiped for the coming inevitable crisis (“crisis what crisis”), pinning our hopes on a socialistic new world order is unlikely to happen. Neoliberaism and the contemorary post liberal economy (think PPP’s) have hegomised the space of finacialisation and subjectivisation of the political mindset in societies. NZ is subjected to the greater neoliberal context (as all countries are) of the hegemonic aparatus of the global elite. Thus political promises are very rarely ever going to be actualised.
    However I disagree that another term in opposition will remove the neo-liberal rot as this has been set in the mindsets of 30plus year’s of education in the ideology of individualism as the cure for a prosperous society for all. Whilst the talk of failed trickle down has ceased, the manoeuvres of the plutocracies passive revolution to control the economy have never ceased since the official new beginnings of democracy. That being the american and french revolutions. The former locking out the slaves and the latter the populistswho without their help in storming the Bastile a french revolution would never have been possible.
    Making a departure from the 1800’s contemporary political hegemony intersects with new apparatus of control in terms of technology and precarious employment, terrorism and post-racist ideology as mainstream discourse. In many respects these are not new as they too have existed for centuries. What is new is the spead of change and the real risk of political revolution from The transformation of the political space intersecting with global issues such as Global warming, Terrorism (or more accurately the manipulation of fear tactics by the opposing positions), and international migration. NZ politics while protected somewhat is not removed from the very real threat of the social order impacting on the confluence of social and political upheaval. Or in other words opportunities for transformation potentially exist in the cracks Capitalism creates in the fracturing of society for the accumulation of wealth to the top. There will be an inevitable consequence. I just don’t see Labour as the Modern Prince. It may be party to the destruction of the current Hegemony but it certainly is not the answer.

    [Published after 7PM, 23 September. – Scarletmod]

  47. […] This will remain a bubbling wound. Economy: There are real dangers of an economic collapse that demand more than more immigration and milk powder. National’s relationship with […]