As I’ve pointed out, the decision by the Greens to abandon the spirit and symbolism of the Memorandum of Understanding to contest the Mt Albert by-election against Labour is a strategic blunder of such a magnitude that whatever clown staff member in Wellington brain farted it up should be removed.
Most of my contacts inside the Greens have privately admitted to me that it’s a fuck up but have all assured me that there’s no chance of a real threat from Genter’s candidacy becuase Gareth Morgan would never stand or have any hope of winning.
To which I say, “Really”?
Here are the 5 reasons why Gareth Morgan would be a fool not to stand in this by-election…
1 – He needs the practise and a dry run in February would be powerful to train him.
2 – His involvement would guarantee massive media attention and he is far better at challenging existing policy and proposing better solutions than either Genter or Ardern.
3 – TOP policy will be released in the first week of February, perfect timing to run and get that policy out.
4 – Could argue to the electorate that Genter and Ardern are already in Parliament and that voting for him him sends a far more powerful message to the Government.
5 – Genter and Ardern could split the vote and he could possibly come through the middle.
…now let’s look at the numbers.
In 2014 election, Labour took 10,823 party votes and Greens took 8,005 party votes. But look at the National Party vote take – a staggering 14,359 party votes!
In a field that has Penny Bright, Joe Carolan, Jacinda Ardern AND Julie Anne Genter, the ability for Gareth Morgan to come through the middle with numbers like that in the electorate is actually entirely possible!
The Greens have already damaged the perception of unity by running in this by-election, let’s all pray to Gaia that Gareth Morgan isn’t serious about his political party and won’t run.
We’ll know when candidate nominations close midday on the 1st of February whether or not Morgan is in. The clever money would be him running and announcing as late as possible his candidacy to ensure the Greens remain in the race.
The damage caused to the sense of unity by fighting the by-election is bad enough, losing the electorate altogether would ensure the Greens got shafted by Labour and NZ First in any post election Government formation.
Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.