New Poll has Hung Parliament
A leaked Talbot poll suggests Election 2026 is shaping into a knife-edge contest, with Labour and National effectively tied and smaller parties determining who governs. The numbers point to a likely hung Parliament — and a brutal political fight to come.
- Labour – 35%
- National – 32%
- ACT Party – 7%
- NZ First – 11%
- Greens – 11%
- Te Pati Maori – 1.7%
- TOP – 2.4%
What the latest New Zealand poll reveals
New Talbot Poll has been leaked to The Spinoff, (where the middle-class woke go to complain about Bluesky) and it’s interesting in that it is painting a hung Parliament.
Greens vs NZ First: the battle for kingmaker status
Greens are still struggling with NZF over 3rd largest party privileges.
If Winston gets higher than the Greens, they have no choice but to bend the knee and suck the boot.
Minor parties and the shifting vote
Interesting that Talbot have TOP on 2.4% up from TU on 1.9%.
Why polling trends may still favour Labour
Note that National tend to over poll and Labour under poll.
How MMP overhang could decide the election
Te Pati Maori generating an MMP overhang makes it harder for the Right to win.
Why the political attacks are escalating
This is why we are seeing character smears, the election is going to be that close.
This is what a genuinely competitive election looks like under MMP — fragmentation, volatility and leverage concentrated in the hands of smaller parties. If this poll is even close to reality, Election 2026 won’t be decided on policy brilliance, but on who can survive the chaos and stitch together a Government from the wreckage.
Of course the dirty CoC are desperate to get back in and do more damage to our country. This motivates me to get as many of my whanau to ensure they are registered and vote. Some if NY whanau have already indicated they want to get rid of the lot in power who are mostly for the sorted and their millionaire/billionaire sponsors. dirty tactics have started,lies will be spewing out of the CoC lots mouth. I’d like to see how many state houses and land have been sold due to their policy of not wanting kainga ora to carry any more debt. This CoC lot have funded and built 330 social houses so far disgusting given the rate of homelessness. Unemployment record high, prisons packed to the rafters, higher gang numbers,domestic violence on the rise, costs of living spiralling, hard to see a GP, almost impossible to get to see a specialist, womens wages being supressed. Not exactly a good track record and I haven’t mentioned the environment.