Latest leaked UMR Poll – Pandemic saving Labour – Winners & Losers
Act leader David Seymour has overtaken National Party leader Judith Collins as preferred Prime Minister in a new UMR poll, a result described as “unprecedented” by the polling company.
The UMR July poll for showed Seymour had risen to 12 per cent as preferred Prime Minister, leapfrogging Collins who was on 10 per cent.
The poll noted that was “an unprecedented result” in its poll – the first time an Act leader had out-polled a National Party leader.
Labour – 48%
National – 24%
ACT – 11%
Green – 8%
The leaked UMR Poll is an attempt to counter the narrative of the Roy Morgan Poll. The problem is that this Poll started and finished before the full impact of the Hate Speech legislation had sunk in so it dangerously gives Labour a false sense of supremacy the way driving a 4 wheel drive Land Rover to pick up the Kids from an inner-city school does.
Here are the winners and losers
WINNERS
Covid – keeping it out of the country while we see so much of the world still suffering means all the domestic pressures like housing, climate change, inequality and poverty are ignored. As long as Covid is kept out, children could be living in cardboard boxes eating out of the trash and the vast majority of NZ would blame the trash for being delicious rather than criticize Jacinda.
ACT – As TDB has been pointing out since the election, ACT have become the de facto Right wing values party and have maximized the culture war backlash. Our prediction is that ACT will almost eclipse National at the 2023 election which will set up a polarized political spectrum that will make 2026 an explosive political election. The woke hate speech fiasco will only empower ACT more.
EV Rebate – The secret to Key’s 3 term electoral success was that he wooed 30 year old Labour female voters away from Helen and kept them. They didn’t vote for Jacinda in 2017 but after Jacinda’s Covid Leadership they flooded to her in a seismic political shift in 2020. These 45+ women admire Jacinda and they are the most likely to use the EV rebate. Male Ute drivers don’t vote Labour but 45+ women buying EVs sure as hell do! If Labour hold onto this new 45+ female voter demographic they win 2023.
Judith – Despite being upset by Seymour in the preferred PM ratings, she is still the preferred leader of those who do vote National.
Simon Bridges – Simon’s only chance at leadership again is reaching out to the middle National needs to compete electorally with Labour. His new book on masculinity could be that spark.
LOSERS
Mental Health – because National are useless as an Opposition and Covid safety is all we care about, the massive ongoing failures in mental health as highlighted by Mike King continue to be ignored.
Housing – because National are useless as an Opposition and Covid safety is all we care about, the 22 521 people on the emergency housing wait list and the generations locked out of home ownership continue to be ignored.
Child Poverty – because National are useless as an Opposition and Covid safety is all we care about, the 190 000 children in poverty continue to languish.
Climate crisis – as the planet melts from an unprecedented global heating event, the Greens are missing in action.
National – their death spiral into irrelevance continues as ACT cannibalize their vote.
Greens – missing in action. If James Shaw made an announcement and no one noticed, did he really make it? 8% is going no where fast when you consider the lack of delivery in important policy.
Race baiting – National’s race baiting separatism stuff just doesn’t work any longer. Most people under 45 know enough NZ history to recognize historic injustices and aren’t fearful of Maori culture or co-governance.
CONCLUSION
We won’t see the Hate Speech damage until the next poll which is likely to be one of the TV Network Polls.
While Covid rages outside the Shire, we will be grateful to Labour, but that gratitude relies on a smooth vaccine roll out and no more outbreaks which can be traced to border incompetence.
The Hate Speech damage will intensify in August when submissions are being called for.
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22,000 on the emergency housing list? Let’s put them up in motels. While they’re there let’s build lots of houses. Hang about, how easy it is to get builders? They all seem to be busy.
Rome mightn’t have been built in a day, neither was a massive housing shortage. Neither will 40,000 new homes be.
It’s amazing how many builders are needed to create mega mansions (might explain the shortage of builders) https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119699816/the-liquor-barons-who-have-mansions–and-underpaid-staff https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123432621/should-new-zealand-become-a-playground-of-the-superrich and tear down the ‘ugly old’ housing the poor used to live in, but now don’t.
Lucky (sarcasm) the new and Neoliberal friendly sanitised high rises with ‘social bond’ prices owned by rich business who are ‘partners’ with the government and make the taxpayers pay the eye watering new rents for motel like, high rise, living…. sadly as we see from Grenfell and what is already happening in NZ when people are too afraid to live in these glamorous but soon to be turned slums, this seldom ends well.
Might be time for the secret Brethran society to put out some pamphlets on behalf of the National party, given National’s race baiting separatism stuff, just doesn’t work anymore.
The gun toting society have moved to ACT which only leaves big Chinese donations to keep them afloat.
Nice try Martyn but it won’t convince many. 12% – pah, might as well be zero for all the good it will do.
All the Govt’ has to do is drop a juicy little policy on the runup to election that us peasants really want and boom, another landslide. The twirker is a dangerous little idiot that gun nuts and hardcore neo liberals adore and there is only small % of them.
Suppressing freedom of speech, doesn’t affects a small amount of people, it effects everyone and Labour and Greens are going to lose a lot of votes.
I can’t see the Daily Blog lasting long or any independent media who says anything against anyone (otherwise known as ‘news’)…. because freedom of speech and tolerance (aka tolerance of others view points on religion, humour, race, sex, gender etc) is a basic right.
Not to mention that real terrorism starts to flourish in suppressed countries, as the Stasi go after the ‘other’ and our justice starts to become overwhelmed, and full of ‘noise’ and witch hunt prosecutions, that the terrorists get cover.
It is why Animal Farm is still a classic book. You can’t stop power abuse in what ever form it takes, and sometimes those that overthrow become worse than the original aggressors because they use ‘words and propaganda’ to organise and displace, not just easily understood aggression. It also becomes progressively worse. The Zionists vs Palestinians is a classic example, both groups believe they are right and are persecuted and it doesn’t work to criminalise the speech, because those in power have the advantage to decide – the only solution will eventually be a power share arrangement.
More violence, suppression and stupidity after the UK implemented their so called ‘hate speech’ laws in 1986. Terrorism before then, was mostly IRA related, that only ended by Good Friday Agreement.
Sadly real news and social damage goes out the window when nobody is allowed to say anything that could be deemed ‘insulting or alarming’, as throw away comments and witch hunts abound, carried out by the dim.
Countries that implement suppression of speech, seem to destroy collaboration and independent thinking and ideas rather than encouraging it and eventually fail. Look at Brexit in the UK. They are less united than they used to be, due to forcing through changes that did not work for many, while labelling anyone who disagrees as hate speakers, so they did not have to listen to alternative view points. China, Russia, Saudi Arabia etc are all countries that do not allow freedom of speech.
Why just Labour and the Greens?.Surely ACT and National fit the mold, given Collins shut down Muller and Nick Smith.
The promoter of free speech suppresses a man by calling him a dickhead.
Will ACT lose votes over this?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/david-seymour-confronted-by-lee-williams-who-was-sacked-from-synlait-over-his-youtube-channel/VHUU6CIOSMSMDFCBNOSZNPA2AI/
Labour and Greens are pushing it. The Natz will support it, they love suppression of freedom of speech, they will pretend not to want it, but secretly are rubbing their hands. The woke and right wing are pretty much the same thinkers!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/jane-clifton-a-disunited-and-chaotic-national-party/326WCPX2FPB7PHK2AUZE3W73UQ/
Say’s it all, I thought it was only me?
*cough* Jacinda Ardern on 55% *cough*
You are probably right more like 65%.
Luckily for you and thanks to Jacinda, your’s is just a little cough rather than covid.
Why does Labour sit idly by and do next to nothing about housing? Why?
As John Minto pointed out Labour have turned down Kainga Ora’s request to up state house building. They have left the settings as per National.
As Chloe Swarbrick pointed out, Labour block MP’s questions as to why Treasury get house prices so wrong, with all the problems that causes moving forward.
And utterly unsurprisingly the grand announcement of 4000 houses at the Unitec site in Mt Albert 3 years ago has provided 0 houses in 2021 and there is nothing to show for it.
Why bother being in government if all you want to do is watch this crisis implode?
How can Labour be this callous and cold? What is wrong with them?
The Greens and Labour have sold off more assets to overseas interests than the Natz. They also have pushed through more residents into NZ in particular temporary permits, (students, workers) but then the people never leave. So there is a massive build up of people who arrive, but never leave, or they do leave but are citizens of NZ and can legally hold property here with satellite families on welfare living in them.
The young people I know are leaving NZ. They had hopes and dreams when Jacinda got in. Now they have nothing but depression and despair. Jacinda is a fraud.
No, she is essentially a neo literal apologist. And when she is kicked out, another neo liberal will take power. Our aim should be to dismantle the neo liberal edifice wherever it may be. And that includes Labour and Adern.
Ex-Labour? Really? Young people are leaving a Covid-free country, to take up residence elsewhere because of Jacinda? You first Ex Labour, revoke your citizenship, your dairy farm and your aertex shirt. You can still access TDB site while you are overseas, or chewing on biltong back in the Transvaal. BTW, did you also agree with the guy who rang up a radio station pretending to be Hone Carter?