OCR stall leaves everyone struggling


Reserve Bank holds Official Cash Rate at 5.5 percent

The Reserve Bank has held the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.5 percent, but repeated concerns about stubborn inflation pressures and dashed hopes of early rate cuts.

Economists had expected the benchmark rate to be left unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, but acknowledged the risk of a surprise rise to put further pressure on domestic price pressures and get inflation back into the 1-3 percent target zone more quickly.

The central bank said inflation has eased to a two-year low of 4.7 percent as consumers and businesses trimmed spending, and labour market pressures eased because of a large influx of migrants.

“Core inflation and most measures of inflation expectations have declined, and the risks to the inflation outlook have become more balanced,” the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement.

“However, headline inflation remains above the 1 to 3 percent target band, limiting the committee’s ability to tolerate upside inflation surprises.”

It said the rate rises of the past two years were having the desired effect, and inflation would return to the target band in due course.

Has inflation peaked?

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That’s the hope after bewildering testimonial from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr to Bernard Hickey that the recent immigration surge was deflationary!!!!!!


Now, that seems disturbingly broken if mass migration and food for basics jumping 50% combine to create deflationary pressures???

This OCR stall seems to be more a moment of blind panic because the inputs are creating outcomes that defy basic economic principles.

It suggests the surge in immigration is in incredibly low skilled exploitable migrant labour that is placing sinful pressure on the domestic renter population.

You also have those with a Mortgage who have already faced increases of 27% alongside 55% of mortgage holders still yet to cross over from low rate mortgages to the new highs they are now.

The Middle Classes are hurting like never before.

The low turn out this year at Splore is a Lulu lemon wearing canary in the coal mine for Middle Class spending aspirations.

It’s bad news for the 600 000 needing food banks each month as well.

No one seems to understand what is happening as enormous pressures never before seen in terms of immigration, infrastructure degradation, worker exploitation, climate change impacts and adaptation all collide with a political will to use the State to bash those the new Government’s reactionary voters despise and call that social policy.

I do not believe that we are ready for this Jelly.

As for Key’s claim that house prices will double in a decade, who is he saying that on behalf of?

His own opinion or the Bank he was employed by?

Whenever the Right speak, you need to ask who is actually saying what you are hearing, the person or the interest they represent?

When Casey Costello speaks, is it for her and the NZ First Party or Big Tobacco?

When Nicole McKee speaks is she speaking for herself and ACT or the Gun Lobby?

When Key speaks, is it for him? The Banks? Or the Chinese Government?

Who knows, one thing is for certain however, our collective post Covid bitter anger at Jacinda for saving 20 000 lives through her actions that we all paid a price for, that fury has elected a hard right racist climate denying beneficiary bashing Government whose interests are the venal selfishness of corporations wanting to deregulate our capitalism for their exploitation!

This is a Government of Corporate Interests using culture war revenge fantasies to keep you distracted from scrutinising their blatant malfeasance.

A Government should never push 13 000 children into poverty to fund a billion dollar tax cut to the wealthy.

This in’t trickle down, this is arseholes want to defy economic gravity and have trickle up!

Things are going to get far worse.

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    • When you’ve got Newshub ‘anchors’ wanting Youtube-level remuneration, without the Youtube subscriber base, something had to give.

      And let’s face it, diverting ex-Newshub NZ on Air funding, into the NACTNZF tax cuts election promise, would be more palatable than “13,000 children into poverty”

      National’s John Key was willing to sell Kiwi actors down the river for Warners Brothers and the Hobbits.

      WarnerCorp is now repaying NationalCorp for Key’s favour.

      Luxon is right (sic.) …’it’s a corporate decision…’ Looks like Luxon is carrying on Key’s legacy of 435 lies. Nothing new to see here, business as usual…move along.

    • Labour’s legacy was fixing Nationals legacy in the health, education & transport infrastructure along with a few other issues along with bringing the country through a pandemic, yes they made mistakes and did not have a decent leader once Jacinda left but 3 years with the current clowns in control & things will be a mess with rampant 3rd world problems although that will not bother the 5% in their gated communities with US soldiers as security.

  1. You seem to delude yourself that the reaction to covid contro is the only reason for voting Labour out .Among people I mix with from both didescif the spectrum it never has come up .Those on the left were simply disillusioned with lack of action and positive results those on the right never believed in the Jacinda magic in the first place .
    They were simply a very poor government from the start . I did vote for 2 of Clarke’s terms so I am not locked in one side or the other.

    • The delusional Trevor suggests M.B. of being delusional. I see.
      “Among people I mix with from both didescif the spectrum it never has come up.”
      The people you mix with must love mixing with you. Do they run the shower cold later?
      The only thing you brush against that has an element of accuracy about it is re labour.
      Labour was buried in a shallow grave by roger douglas and his gang of ugly gangsters back in 1984-ish.
      What we must endure now is the run-on effect of 40 years of lies, greed and fancy shenanigans down at the Pelican Club. Aye boys? Neo-liberalism might work in non democratic countries or at least until someone walks into the bar where the neo-liberals drink with a machine gun but here, in Aotearoa / New Zealand, we can only bare witness to poverty, hardship and brand new range rovers parked along Ponsonby Road ready and willing for any impromptu and sudden mud event.

    • Well Trevor, being disillusioned with Labour ( while not without cause) should not lead to blind cheerleading for these muppets. I don’t see how anyone with a dose of common sense can believe about 70% of the Bs that comes out of this coalition. Peters, Costello, McKee, Seymour, are about as disingenuous you can be (Shane Jones is just flat out corrupt) and now Luxon goes from looking not in control to losing it.

    • And in the first 100 days this government is corrupt Trevor. Policies that kill are an appalling way to run a country. If you think Labour were bad this lot are atrocious and the people I mix with have said they could never ever vote National again. They simply can’t be trusted.

        • Of course he did Bob, he thought about it and wrote down his thoughts and observations. You however run on a script prepared probably by you or someone who is delusional anyway, and you follow the script so no thinking involved. Keep it up it’s good to have a hobby and you could be worse. In fact try to be worse, you shouldn’t get lazy and complacent (like the rest of us hah hah.)

    • Yes very well said Trevor, I was never a fan of Jacinda either,I think she was sincere but totally out of her depth plus she was very naive.
      Fortunately in the Coalition of the capable we have real government,real leadership.As a country we will now go forward.

  2. 5.5% – 4.7% = 0.8% real interest rate.

    That’s still a pretty stimulative rate. Consider that the 100-year C.P.I. average is hovering around 3%, and the average Fed Funds Rate since 1800 is about 5.2% — so just like that old saying about rates says: “Always and everywhere, two percent.”

    Of course both parties are beholden to the mega-donors, who will never allow an end to the housing bubble, let alone allow a return to sound money and permanently normalised rates. Industry will eventually get bailed out again via a return to Q.E. and Z.I.R.P., and workers will take the hit once more.

  3. What we are seeing is a direct result of Labour spending like Nicholas Cage on speed with pretty much every social metric nose diving.
    If National had not done something, the country would be bankrupt within 10 years.

    Here’s some simple rules:
    1. Criminals belong in jail.
    2. If you are unwilling to work, you should be willing to be homeless and starving.
    3. Education is important and children should attend school.

    • Oh good – simple rules for the simple. This is a good indication of why freely available democratic voting doesn’t work. Nothing is quite as politicians present it, and they present nothing that clearly indicates what they are most concerned about, and are likely to get up to. But we have been simple enough to think that because we can tie our shoelaces we are up to choosing people who have our concerns at heart and brain, when we don’t even understand what our concerns are, and what they should be. What a whirlpool of personal electrical activity that wouldn’t even turn on a light bulb. As the robot in Short Circuit elucidated – ‘More input, need more input’ – as he whipped through encyclopaedias at breakneck speed.

    • Lol your so last century, I can imagine you being spoon feed by robot a incontinent dribling old fool, shaking your fist at the clouds, “you must work you can’t be free to just float by!

    • What utter rubbish. You have no f’ing clue.

      If we were going to be bankrupt why promise tax cuts? That makes them sound completely irresponsible.

    • [If you are unwilling to work, you should be willing to be homeless and starving.]

      Perhaps they should be whipped. But, hold on, I thought slavery was abolished a couple of centuries ago.

    • So let’s lock up all the tax avoiders then? Certain criminals belong in jail but locking up innocent people & those with pathetic offenses that are not a threat to society is the sort of thing only village idiots want to do. There has to be enough work that different types of people are capable of doing before any restriction can be considered, you might be lucky enough to only know healthy people but if you get out of your comfort zone & actually mix with the real world you would find a multitude of situations that make any one size fits all policy incredibly harmful. I do agree that education is essential so hopefully, you are booked into your local pre-school as you have a lot to learn before it would feel safe letting you loose in a civil society.

  4. That’s tough jays but very true.The biggest problem we have is the number of people who need to be told what to do by Government.

    • No it’s not remotely true. They haven’t achieved anything apart from confirm they have no answer on water, will cost us ultimately more on removing the clean car discount (while masturbating over pictures of utes), have further hindered Akl transport infrastructure which they won’t stump up for, and are openly in the pocket of the tobacco and fishing industries. Oh and started race baiting and talk about all kiwis being the same, unless it’s tobacco where it’s apparently vital to ease the burden on Māori and Pacifica smokers. Shane Cigaretti wants the experts from the defunct Maori health authority to join health nz to help them deliver for Maori. But somehow that’s not centralised bureaucracy!!

  5. 1-3 % guarantees austerity all for the benefit of investors who don’t want to see their profits nibbled at by inflation. It’s all about cosseting the money-makers who have found a way of accreting material wealth and possessions without actual physical effort. That’s so lower class, until one finds that one has the need of physical skills, especially in building. (Hence fascination with tv series like How I converted my run-down fantasy-Castle. See old film The Money Pit.)

    1% would stultify the economy which would be at odds with the desire for fast money – prices were stable in the century with limited war and change, people were servants and in poorly-paid jobs. When the eager, mercantile class got going things changed. We can’t have 1% as the base, it must be changed – 2% rising to 4.5%? – which would be livable and ease things. But the financiers and economists don’t want to change because it would admit they might have been wrong originally, and that would never do. It would be as horrific as watching someone being hanged where everybody gasped in delighted horror and all looked on despite. And there would be spite too.

    It would be a bit like Ignaz Semmelweis who found through piloting practices in changing hospital routine behaviours, particularly in extremely careful handwashing, that he could save new mothers’ lives. He couldn’t explain the reasons and the science but found a practice that worked and prevented the higher deaths of the hospital to those of the less esteemed midwives. However the senior men at the hospital didn’t approve the ‘slipshod’ method that could not be backed with proper theory and forbade the practice and the death toll resumed upwards. He ended up coerced into an asylum, kept there, and was dead in six weeks. Sort of Julian Assange treatment.

    This summary from a piece on his descendants connected with Semmelweis University
    Medicine and Health Sciences in Budapest, Hungary:
    As for what it was in Semmelweis’s story that affected his offspring most? Dr. Artúr Hüttl says that for him, the attitude of the professors who refused to recognize Semmelweis’s achievements and attacked him is a cautionary tale. When we impulsively say that something cannot be true, that the other person is wrong, we should always be aware that ideas that sound absurd at first could also turn out to be true. Dr. András Hüttl believes that the greatest tragedy of Semmelweis’s life is that his work was not valued while he was alive. The recognition that should have been his has gone instead to his descendants, as today Ignác Semmelweis is the pride of the entire Hungarian medical community, and in fact the entire country. (My bolding.)

    No wonder that the workmen at the financial investment coalface are afraid to make changes for the better. They would be regarded as whistleblowers. We would see that the Emperor had no clothes. Can anyone drag their minds away from the narrow path of financial wonderland magically turned into reality to see the levers behind the whole shenanigans. We need to think more widely than just sip the pap we are fed by our 5-Fingers allies, who actually only give us one.

  6. Biden seems to have gotten inflation down fairly quickly. I’ve no idea how he did it, but whenever you mention it to conservatives they go all shitty.

  7. Augh, Bomber, another self entitled its me look, IM in charge, Im! the man, The Prime Minister, im entitled to this rent pay back.
    We had the Dipton diper, WHAT CALL this, HIM.
    No need the print.

  8. The average death rate for oecd countries was 1% of the population .Jacinda should have just done what the oposition wanted and taken no action and allowed 50000 die .She could have saved billions not keeping business going as they would have just closed down .Luxon would not have inherited a country that has done well but a real basket case with a million unemployed and very few business around .Thats if he survived covid .

    • While I do not disagree with much of what Jacinda did the figure of those saved has gone from 20000 to 50000 .
      Labour failure came in the way the country reopened. there did not seem to be any planned moves and the. Cost to both the economy and the people was high.

    • 100% Care about first home buyers!? In our neoliberal hellhole that’s how the big dosh is made by buying houses getting the renters to pay the mortgage and cashing out on capital gain. Plus obstructing CGT’s politically.

  9. “As for Key’s claim that house prices will double in a decade, who is he saying that on behalf of?

    His own opinion or the Bank he was employed by?

    Whenever the Right speak, you need to ask who is actually saying what you are hearing, the person or the interest they represent?

    When Casey Costello speaks, is it for her and the NZ First Party or Big Tobacco?

    When Nicole McKee speaks is she speaking for herself and ACT or the Gun Lobby?

    When Key speaks, is it for him? The Banks? Or the Chinese Government?”

    Fantastic critical thinking that should be taught in school.

    And what is the all so powerful entity that is blocking a sensible adult discussion regarding legalizing weed in a way that benefits the economy. ie: r18 sales without so much compliance costs attached that its not viable. This would be a huge earner if done correctly.

    Tobacco and alcohol are on the way out. Weed and psychedelics are the future. Why not just dump the current old boys club and embrace the new one?

    What interests are preventing this? American far-right? Big pharma? The tobacco industry could sell weed so I can not see them caring too much. Big liquor could make cannabis drinks. Is this bullshit purely yank far right using us as a petri dish to see what might work over there in future? Or is there some other entity at play here I am missing?

  10. Right we are all agreed that the government is inadequate, unconcerned about the country it is supposed to be serving, including the nation within the land of the country.   Because it is getting land and physical stuff for themselves using ephemeral means of exchange ie money.  

    As a learner about economics and fiat money etc I have looked at my economic textbook, an oldie but goodie and thought about our dire straits now.  How did we get into this mess and how out of it then?  Some small island used cowrie shells as money, they were scarce and therefore held value and that could be established by agreement between the people.   We used to use gold in the same way.   But the minds of the ambitious and wily could see how the system could be expanded  beyond what gold could back as collateral, and we started using money as promissory notes instead.
    Terry Pratchett has written some amusing stories that involve money, which people with imagination and nous who read for pleasure and expansion of thought can enjoy.   Such as the story ‘Making Money’ The 36th book in the Discworld series is titled “Making Money”. It chronicles the exploits of Moist von Lipwig, a former con man who joined the government and is now in head of Ankh-Morpork’s Royal Mint. It is his responsibility to develop a new currency and overhaul the city’s banking system.21 Oct 2023
    “Making Money” by Terry Pratchett: “A Hilarious Journey …
    Medium   https://medium.com › making-money-by-terry-pratchet..

    Then also the early book The Colour of Magic about the tourist who comes to the city of Ankh Morpork with his suitcase filled with gold, common at his home place, but not in Ankh Morpork and therefore of much  higher value, resulting in his paying triple the norm unconsciously and untroubled.   Those are the tourists we all like!   He also brings the idea of insurance as a new concept;   which has to be watched for fraud, another work of the imaginative and ambitious.

    Can we be ambitious and wily enough to make some change  and devise a parallel minority currency, call it UET (Universal Exchange Tokens) that enables trading and is based in value on something that keeps value stable and doesn’t allow for speculative flights?   It would have to be recognised by the taxation system as money, but would be a secondary, lower-class system without opportunities for speculation, as it would have to be earned by work exchange and could not be saved. 

    This would be similar to Green $ but that was not a tight enough system in its rules and understanding to make it viable for long.   The rules have to be strictly adhered to!   And it would not have recourse to the nation’s legal system.  Having to declare returns to the IRD at some level would be inevitable to enable it to be recognised as not just a tax dodge which would then be illegal.  Once accepted it would encourage individuals to interact and help each other.    And it would need to be kept active, and part of that it would have limited shelf life to encourage activity and exchange within each operative area.  Think of how Flybuys are lost if not used, or that’s how they used to be.   The plan for this would have to be set up by hard-headed community-oriented people who understand how trading works, how money works, and thinking of assisting the M1 level of exchange that circulates around in the everyday trading that we all participate in.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply
    I think that each area would need to have a food market once a week with stalls that would accept say half, of their price in UETs so people could spend their UET vouchers or tokens, and usually pay part in kiwi money that would cover their expenses from the mainstream economy.   This would help lift us from the poverty that governmental laxness and maliciousness is imposing on so many people.  

  11. Jacinda saved 20,000 Nzers the same way Bush saved 1000s from Saddam Hussein.
    Saving an ill or old person for one day only to die the next – while crushing life, rights, reputations, livelihoods, childhoods, communities, families, aspirations on the way.


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