There is an argument amongst the Right that the Specials won’t go the Left’s way and that MIQ resentment from overseas will see ACT and National win.
If this is true then the destruction of the Left will be far greater than it currently is. The Specials present a chance for the Left to win back from bruised pride, if they don’t even get that, it will be devastating.
So will the Specials swing right?
I’m not convinced.
Firstly the Specials encompass people who enrolled on the day and who are transient. This is a demographic that benefits the Left, not the Right.
Graeme Edgeler is the genius on this and has broken down the previous voting patterns in a must read blog.
The last minute surge to Labour we saw in the Polls will come through in the Specials and as for the overseas vote, you are looking at 80 000 votes with the majority of those from Australia from voters who have just gained citizenship rights there under Labour, so that might blunt some of the anger at MIQ.
If the Specials split Left where we expect them, National + ACT will need Winston to form a Government.
If the Specials defy predictions and break Right, the Left won’t gain power back util 2029.
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I know at the Greens are getting at least one special vote from a friend of mine in Christchurch
Two more from us in Germany
Overseas peeps hate Labour more than Aucklanders ..MIQ
But how many of the special votes come from overseas and they are overseas we live here. those that live overseas didn’t care about us getting covid and our hospitals like the many other countries not able to cope nah! they though only about themselves.
I’d the500000 special votes I was told 83000 are overseas voters and the rest are votes made in a different place to where you are registered, A majority of those overseas will return and in the past their vote has favored the left but that may be different this time.
According to the electoral commission, there are around 560,000 special votes, of those around 80,000 are from overseas voters.
Only residents should vote.
I have dual citizenship and right to vote in both countries but only vote in the country of my residence.
I know people who have left NZ 30 years ago and their vote counts as much as ours.
Perhaps tax residence should be the criterium?
That’s the thing that annoyed me about Labour at this Election Martyn, they spent far to much time negatively concentrating on National’s policy faults instead of running on their own accomplishments & good record, which they did have like the one you mentioned here with NZers gaining access to OZ Citizenship, a huge & major diplomatic win which NZers should have rewarded Labour for & also ran on their lifesaving record on Covid & many other wins, like saving the Economy during that time by supporting the Businesses & people & other thingd but Labour completely blew it, they failed to articulate this to the NZ Public & their good record built up over 6 yrs & allowed the Media & the Right to walk all over them & set the narrative that Labour was incompetent & you know what happened, they lost! Labour needs to hire better Publicists because they lose the Information War every time, even the CTU did a better job of communicating to the Public & highlighting Labour raising Workers conditions & pay increases for Workers & condemning Nationals lousy policies? I hope the specials can give the Left some good news Martyn cos we sure as hell need it to minimise the Neoliberal carnage to come?