Old Zealand beats New Zealand – Election 2023 Winners, Losers & Predictions

We have just elected a Government of antivaxx quacks, anti-indigenous Māori racists and climate deniers who will do the bidding of the real estate pimps, Trucking Industry, the Farmers, the Banks and the Gambling industry.



Now I’ve staggered back from an all consuming wake that became a weekend long bender, let’s surveil the damaged ruins of our new political landscape.

I said it wasn’t over until the fat bloggers sings..

…well, here is me singing!

- Sponsor Promotion -

The electorate has spoken, and apparently it has said, ‘This potato headed meat sack is our new Prime Minister and we all lose’!

Potato Headed Meat Sack spends half his weekly shopping budget on KFC

First up, this election wasn’t won, it was bought!

How much per vote

Act: $20.90

National: $9.34

NZ First: $6.91

Green: $5.62

Labour: $1.79

Te Pāti Māori: $1.69

The knee jerk bullshit policy alongside counterproductive punitive measures alongside Real Estate Lobbyist wet dreams have all combined to vandalise our Egalitarian State!

We are collectively a far worse country for this outcome!

I’m not pissed off National won, that’s democracy, what I’m pissed off by is that they won with such vapid and venal policy.

National will rob 2 year olds, mutilate public transport and literally steal from climate change funds to pay 3000 rich landlords the full $250 per fortnight tax cut funded by a magical foreign buyers tax that will never ever produce the revenue the Property Lobbyists who wrote National’s policy are pretending it will.

The reason why this mutilation has won? Because the electorate hated Labour so much.

That voters didn’t care National, ACT and NZ First would unleash madness highlights how much voters were burnt by Covid lockdowns and Labour’s grotesque incrementalism.

Add into that one of the worst campaigns by Chippy ever and Labour have been destroyed this election.

With the specials always leaning left and the Māori Party possibly creating an overhang, National and ACT will gloriously be forced into Government with Winston.


Rat. Fucked.

We have just elected a Government of antivaxx quacks, anti-indigenous Māori racists and climate deniers who will do the bidding of the Real Estate Pimps, Trucking Industry, the Corporate Farmers, the Banks and the Gambling Industry FFS!

If you thought Labour were bad, after 3 years of this National/ACT/NZ First nightmare, you will be screaming for Covid to make a come back!

There are of course after an election some political Winners and Losers…



Real Estate Pimps – The lobbyists who wrote National’s property policy are all having drug fuelled orgies in celebration of this devastating win for Landlords and obscene inequality. The Real Estate Pimps paid $2million in donations to the political right to remove the Foreign Buyers Ban, give Landlords massive tax loopholes that’ll benefit mega landlords to the tune of hundreds of millions and give Landlords the right to evict, and what a pay day the Real Estate Pimps have gained! The trick of announcing National were removing the Foreign Buyers Ban and selling that grotesque manipulation as a revenue source rather than locking another generation out from home ownership is the greatest lie ever perpetrated on the people of Aotearoa, and the sleepy hobbits of muddle NuZilind swallowed it hook, line and sinker because of WEF Jabcinda and the Plandemic! The Real Estate Pimps are the true winners of this Election and using Paula Bennet as their proxy in the mainstream media was a stroke of genius.

Māori Party – The backlash to this being the most racist election ever held generated an enormous drive within Māoridom to step up for themselves. Nanaia being beaten by a 21 year old highlights the power of demographics that now rule Māori politics. 70% of Māoridom are under the age of 40 and they won’t put up with the Right using them as a political punching bag any longer. When ACT start their racist race war inducing referendum, the resistance will be based from these Māori electorates and will generate immediate friction to any referendum.


Naked white fragility racism – Never before have so many fragile white egos all risen at once to scream, ‘but what about cracker’ quite like this election. Because Labour are cowards, they never explained what the fuck 3 Waters or Co-Governance was and on the odd occasion they did try to explain it, like the fishhook laden 3 Waters and the ludicrous Tamati Coffee induced attempt to weight votes more to Māori, it only fuelled white fragility fears even more. Because Labour wouldn’t engage, Astroturf dark money filled the void and convinced white voters that this was an existential race war secretly developed by Radical Nationalist Māori to steal da water when it was nothing of the sort. As raw sewage pumps into Auckland Harbour and water contamination rises with 70% of rivers unswimmable, watching fragile white egos forced to boil their water before they can drink it after muttering ‘but He Puapua is apartheid’  seems a perfectly acceptable outcome.


Brooke Van Veldon – As a 30 year old, Brooke is the only woman in NZ who dresses like she’s 53! Brooke’s wardrobe will receive the pension before she does, which is probably why ACT are so keen to push Super up to 67! Surprise win for Brooke in Tamaki, and I say surprise because after the debate we held in Tamaki, I thought Simon O’Conner would win. There’s an odd glow that comes to Brooke’s eyes when she talks about the State standing over poor people and telling them how to live, like the way Gollum speaks about his precious. During the debate, Brooke almost seemed aroused by the idea of slashing 15000 Government jobs where as O’Connor took a far more dignified and compassionate approach by calling for no slash and burn. Unfortunately this is Tamaki, which is Maori for, ‘Angry White Rich people living near the beach’, and anything less than the sacking of all public servants and sowing salt in their gardens is unacceptable. Look out poor people, Brooke is here to smother you to death in her off pink robe. No seriously. She is. RUN!


Privatisation Agenda – Alongside the Real Estate Pimps, every consultant wanting less regulation and more juicy public private contracts are rejoicing at this win. We can already see anyone who donated to National are now in a conga line for a tsunami of crony capitalism the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

…National’s conflicts of interest are about to make all Labour’s collective sins look like child’s play. We will yearn for the day Stuart Nash sent Cabinet briefings as the highest point of ethical standards in comparison.


National Party Caucus Meeting

Corporate Farmers – The corporate farmers win again! After rigging the entire political system to empower them and their profit margins no matter the cost to our environment or  geopolitical safety, the corporate farmers have managed to put off doing anything meaningful on emissions for another fucking 5 years! When you consider Helen Clark first called for emission reductions in 2003,  Corporate Farmers have managed to prevent any changes for 25 years now! That is an incredible feat of political manipulation and fuckwittery. All hail the Golden Cow we slavishly worship in NZ! Remember, whatever the problem, the NZ solution is MORE COWS!


CTUs Craig Renney – Where the fuck has this CTU been? Since the passing of Helen Kelly the CTU has drifted without any real purpose or direction as woke identity politics seemed to become more important to the Wellington clique than you know, worker rights. The breath of fresh air CTU Economist Craig Renney injected in the last month of the election with research that undermined the economic credibility of National’s deeply flawed tax policy was what the Left should have been doing for the last 3 years! The Left have walked away from economics and focused on the low hanging fruit of identity politics which only divides using pure temple politics rather than Broadchurch Solidarity. The common ground between people is their class, not their identity and Craig Renney is the blueprint for how the Left wins in 2026.


Bank Oligopoly and Supermarket Duopoly – The powerful who shape our under regulated capitalism are safe because National builds monopolies, they don’t break them. ACT and National want to gut MBIE who are the only Department that polices our under regulated capitalism so the rich win. Again.


Steve Able & Efeso Collins – One of the few wins was the election of former Greenpeace Activist Steve Able and People’s Hero Efeso Collins. Both will bring an activism and dynamism desperately needed in the 3 year resistance to the right wing onslaught we are about to face.


Chris Penk – There is no reason why Chris Penk is in this list, but you can’t have a list of winners without The Penky! Deserves a Cabinet position as the only National Party MP with more charm than a road accident.


Jacinda – It was weird that while Covid shaped everything, we refused to talk about it like it was a taboo trauma. So much bitterness towards a shared universal experience was always going to cause cultural and political backlash. For many their Covid sacrifice was unequal in an unequal society and for those who made anti-vixx and anti-mandate their identity it created an ostracisation they had never encountered and warped them with terminal resentment forever. How else can you explain the existence of The Platform?  As the election closed, research was released showing Jacinda’s leadership in her Covid response saved 20 000 lives! Labour were ready to fight the Covid War but lost the Covid Peace.That research was a reminder in the dying days of the campaign that Jacinda’s courage will be noted by the historians even as those who benefited rebelled against her. Pity she did nothing with the unprecedented MMP majority and reverted to incrementalism instead of true transformative change.



Haha. Now explain why you fucking sold us out on the wealth tax clown!

Chippy – You sausage roll eating muppet! ‘Captain’s call????’, and who were you the Captain of Chippy? The Fucking Titanic! Every single step in the campaign Chippy fucked up because he was cut from the exact same timid incrementalism Jacinda was locked into. When the GST off fresh Fruit and Vegetables was leaked, Chippy had a chance to save this insipid meaningless policy by extending it to ALL Supermarket bought food, but he didn’t because he was too weak. He killed the bloody Wealth Tax, something that would have been funded by the mega wealthy to give every Kiwi their first $10 000 tax free, but he refused to do it because he’s weak. Chippy should step down immediately as Leader, his never ending feckless missteps cost Labour the election. What the fuck was the point of Bread and Butter politics if no one could afford the Bread and Butter? I don’t want to see another fucking sausage roll for the rest of the year!


Labour – Look, I’m not saying there wen’t some gains over the last 6 years: Free school lunches, trust tax, new top income rate, free prescriptions, most state houses in 50 years, record investment in housing, healthcare and investment, regulate property managers, clean car discount, apprenticeship scheme, benefits to wages, FPAs – all great first steps, but after 6 years of ‘first good steps’, you realised you were just jogging on the spot! We were promised transformative, what we got was less left wing than the British Tory Party! Labour are over run by the Professional Managerial Class, they see the solution is better bureaucratic structures rather than an upgrade of the Capacity of the State and so spent 6 years recreating bureaucratic structures without the necessary upgrade of capacity. Labour refused to explain what the hell 3 Waters or Co-governance meant because Jacinda hated conflict (her Cabinet meetings were nicknamed ‘The Good Ship Lollypop’ because she wouldn’t tolerate any negativity) and wouldn’t engage on co-governance or 3 Waters which allowed astroturf dark money to take over the debate and manufacture it into an existential race issue. Fundamentally Labour needed to tax the rich to pay for the social infrastructure we needed, but because Labour at heart are intellectual cowards, they refused to engage in that, which left voters asking, ‘why bother voting for Labour’. Why indeed. Labour face oblivion, will probably gain 2 MPs from the Specials so will limp home with 28% or 29%.


Greens – Will do far better from the Specials and picked up two new electorates because the woke like to live together. So on paper a great night, but they are now totally impotent with Labour out of power. The worst mistake the Greens could make now is to misconstrue this result as proof positive their alienating woke middle class dogma was somehow successful, it wasn’t. Greens only gained because Labour were so spineless. The Greens need to step back and consider the future because resistance to what National/ACT/NZF are about to attempt will be desperately required. It is obvious Chloe is the future leader and that transition should occur after the Summer.


Of course Chris Luxon believes in dinosaurs!

National – Ran possibly the worst election strategy in history. Refused to rule Winston out, then ruled Winston him in, then begged the electorate to not make National work with Winston.  Pushed a policy platform of spite and created fake Foreign Buyers Tax revenue to magically gloss over their tax policy. Luxon is thick as two planks and sold deodorant and left Air NZ with $3billion in debt. If there is a God, he will leave National with no option other than working with Winston who will promptly kill lifting their Foreign Buyers ban.


I’m Captain Icarus and I’m going to drive this plane like a chariot into the sun!

ACT – Started out with so much promise by using the culture war ammunition the woke middle class activists generated and leveraged the resentment against Labour, but the naked extremism of ACT and what they intended to do scared voters once they got over their blind anger towards Labour. ACTs extremist policy agenda spooked voters and left ACT with gun lobby fetishists and Treaty race baiting. We all wait to see if ACTs race war generating racist referendum will be allowed past Winston after the Specials.


Chris Bishop – Did Captain Grumpy Pants have a break down?

Bishop acted like a teenage tantrum for most of National’s disastrous campaign, and kept attacking things like a dog chasing parked cars. For a 40 year old, his gaunt bitter appearance has aged him, I can’t work out if it’s nicotine or being in the National Party.


Simeon Brown – The more I see of Simeon Brown, the more I despise him.

…Simeon gets sadistic kicks out of race baiting about da gangs da gangs as if he’s some tough guy. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was caught with a huge number of unexplained children’s shoes under his house.


Climate Change – National/ACT/NZ First are a climate denial Government who will do all they can to allow polluters to do what they want to keep profiting from their pollution. The planet will burn while Luxon makes loves to a cow, the planet will boil while David Seymour decries climate alarmism and the planet will melt as Winston mumbles about gambling and cigarette taxes.

We are fucked on the climate change front for a full 3 years until these lunatics get thrown out.


Beneficiaries – No one ever lost votes bashing beneficiaries and when National wasn’t blowing the real estate industry, they were bashing beneficiaries. All the punitive measures about to be launched against our sickest and weakest will be the blueprint adopted to privatise welfare. Outside agencies will be paid a bonus when shifting beneficiaries off the list and that can be done two ways, 1) if you find them a job or 2) – you cut them off for some bullshit infraction on their ridiculous work ready conditions. Expect an enormous suffering to come out of this.

Drug addicts and disabled – Not content to bash beneficiaries, ACT wanted to target drug addicts and the disabled as well and have promised terrible retribution for their ‘welfare fraud’. White collar criminals who take billions each year however will receive a free pass.


Home Ownership – Already at the lowest level in 70 years, National’s removal of the Foreign Buyers Ban will lock out another generation from home ownership as the speculators rush back into the market.


Woke Middle Class Identity Activists – After handing so much culture war ammunition to the Right, our woke middle class identity activists literally drove male voters into the arms of the political right. In woke Wellington world, ALL white men are irredeemable cross burning racists, B-E-L-I-E-V-E ALL women that ALL men are rapists and anyone defending free speech is a uniform wearing Nazi who hates the trans community. Turns out that identity politics mentality alienates rather than brings together. ‘Pure Trans Joy’ probably helped cost us the election.


Prisoners – Are about to have their underfunded, corrupt and violent prisons jammed full to the point of prison riot with zero rehabilitation whatsoever. Expect ACT to call for private prisons.


Race Relations –  The manner in which NZF, ACT and National have race baited this election will cause wounds that will not heal over their 3 years in office. ACT have made it clear their racist referendum to redefine the Treaty and force it upon Māori is a bottom line. National will pass their gang patch law (that will target Māori more) and NZ First intends to make all domestic gangs terrorist organisations. Māori have been punching bags once more and the deep fury at how ACT, National and NZF have been allowed to race bait without condemnation has lit a fuse. This country will become ungovernable if National + ACT + NZF push this referendum.


Public Services – When Winston kills off National’s lifting of the foreign buyers ban, National’s entire economic house of cards collapses requiring mass public service cut backs, which will be funny because even if Winston greens lights it, it can never raise enough revenue to prevent National from slashing public services.

Public Transport – National will mutilate public transport just as oil prices are about to skyrocket due to the looming war in the Middle East.

Workers – Bosses to gain back the right to fire and scrap the Fair Pay Agreements which were the most substantial workers rights legislation passed in the last 40 years.

Renters – Landlords to gain the right to evict, social housing builds will stop and Landlords will gain enormous powers as rental regulations are all rolled back.


The Spinoff – NZ On Air has given The Spinoff $6.1 million while the Left have been in power so that the woke feel loved. While we all desperately want a new Trans Decolonizing Feminist Podcast hosted by Mummy Bloggers, whoever the new Broadcasting Minister is can’t seriously believe this is money well spent. Maybe, JUST MAYBE, The Working Group, NZ’s best weekly political podcast NOT funded by NZ on Air might finally, FINALLY be able to get one red cent out of them!





Specials + Overhang – 20% of the votes are Special and will be the largest amount in NZ political history. They overwhelmingly go Left so Labour, Greens and Māori Party will do well. Labour will pick up more and turn some electorate seats, Greens will go up, National will lose two and the Māori Party may win another electorate and generate an overhang forcing National and ACT to form a coalition with NZ First. If there is a God, ACT and National deserve Winston.

Gang Tangi Shoot Out – National have pledged to pass their stupid gang patch law in the first 100 days meaning the first Gang tangi held after that in Summer 2024 will have all eyes on Luxon to demand Police enter the tangi and remove those patches, the way he did during his Paddy Gower debate. The resulting police shoot out at a funeral will generate negative global media attention, which won’t help with our tourism brand. If NZ First manages to designate gangs as Terrorist Group expect the shootings to start earlier.

Prison Riot – The prison system is already near riot conditions due to severe understaffing and over crowding, dumping another 2000 prisoners into the system will push it over the top.

Rates rise before Christmas – Inflation is still burning and the geopolitical tensions about to explode in the Middle East will force another OCR before Christmas ruining many first time home buyers New Years. The squeezed middle will scream at National to do something.

Gaza – The looming war crimes about to be committed by the IDF will spark a revolt in the West Bank and invasion by Hizbollah which will generate an American response, which will generate an Iranian response which will generate an Israeli response which will generate a Russian response which will generate another American response. The new Government will have to deal with the evolving meltdown with nuance and justice. Unfortunately a National/ACT/NZF Government will have no concept of nuance and justice.

Entire National Party Economic Policy vetoed by NZ First, spark second election – National’s entire economic house of cards is based on lifting the foreign buyers ban which Winston is diametrically opposed to. Winston could slash his own throat by selling out and allowing foreign speculators to manipulate our domestic real estate market again, or he will say no. If he says no, National’s entire economic model falls to pieces and all those Real Estate Pimps who funded the Rights campaign will be incandescent with rage.

If Winston refuses to budge, National and ACT will blame NZ First and demand a second election. Everything for National rests on lifting the foreign buyers ban, and if Winston won’t budge they have no choice but a second election.

That’s how powerful the Real Estate Pimps have now become politically in NZ.




New Zealand – Ultimately the biggest losers are New Zealand. NONE of ACT’s, Nationals or NZ First policy will provide well thought out consequences.

This wasn’t an election, it was a grudge fuck!

With a 78.4% turnout, so it was lower than 2017 when Labour barely won.

That’s over a million who could have voted but didn’t.

That’s a heavy rejection of the options presented.

An embittered and angry electorate wanted to hurt Labour and voted accordingly, Labour didn’t help by being hopelessly incompetent.  The poorest amongst us will fund a tax cut to rich landlords while the most vulnerable from beneficiaries, state house tenants, prisoners, drug addicts, the working classes and the disabled are all going to face insufferable and punitive sanctions.

A National/ACT/NZ First Government will only serve to compound counter productive policy that will deform, punish and mutate those stereotypes the Right despise and used to whip up the worst angels of our nature.

We are a poorer people for this change.

The Left needs a good hard long look at themselves.

Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.

If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media


  1. I think it is time for you to actually analyse Nationals economic policy, rather than talk about in slogans.
    Total expenditure for 2024 is about 1.5% is less than Labor intended.
    Government expenditure is about 35% of GDP, up from around 30% in 2017. National will aim to get the percentage down to about 32 or 33% by the next election. Basically by a slower growth path.
    There won’t be a firestorm of firings as Act proposed, rather there will be a freeze in new employment.
    One of the major advantages of National doing well is that Act’s influence is reduced. There is no chance of Act simply dictating to National as to what the government will do. It should be obvious by now as to who is the boss. And it isn’t Seymour.

  2. Great article & an accurate description of events. At least the party I voted for improved their position so it was not a wasted vote. Greed is good will be how the government operates for the next 3 years (if they last that long) so being in the water filter/purification business might be a good earner as the privileged few decide that as they can afford their own clean water there is no need to have safe public water supplies.

  3. Spot on summary Martyn.
    At least not everyone was taken in by this con man & his all-bluster-no-numbers financial “policy”.

  4. Unfortunately for Labour as soon as they get into Govt the Unions go Gangbusters, with Strike after strike making the Govt look bad and now Docs, Nurses and teachers have has their biggest payrise in years they will sit quietly for the next 3 years and the Nats will take the credit for that I’m sure as they will for the declining ram raids.
    Labour should also have kept the fuel discount, they could have raised it again once reelected or left it to National to have to raise it as people clearly don’t care where the money is going to come from and as with John Keys lie about not raising GST, people forget.

    • I think you are right.It would have been sensible to float a wealth tax and CGT to have a point of difference a couple if dollars of fruit and veg which most believed they would not get was hardly a winner.
      Personally I am very happy with the result and think we will see the results of policy change in 18 months to lead into 2026.

      • Yeah, wages getting held down, more homelessness, as people get kicked out of rentals and state houses, unemployed localsgetting dispaced by immigrants. But the ram raids and gang funerals will still carry on as usual. The emergency wait times will still continue, but people will be sent home after 6 hours with a pamphlet and an 0800 number.

        • So you DON’T want terrible hospital wait times to come down, ram raids to stop? You want them to continue as they have been?
          Well Millsy I have news for you, the outcomes will change for the better…I know you are terrified that things get better under a National Govt and your drug crazed ‘predictions’ will not come to pass.
          If so, all we can hope for is you will announce your departure from blogs ‘again!’ that you promised before, but like Labour…another broken promise eh?

          • Bollocks. National will not fix ram raiding ( which has been coming down anyway). They probably won’t fix hospital wait times, and they sure as hell won’t help in cost of living (again inflation has turned already). They have already said rent won’t come down despite all the breaks they will give the poor wee property investors

          • I’m Right, you might be interested with what’s happening in Whangarei with the hospital. Shane ‘ride around in an ambulance’ Reti is already sounding dodgy about the new hospital. BECAUSE NATIONAL are full of it.

          • Ram raids continue even after the election. There’s your answer you muppet things won’t get better under a National government, they never have. Perhaps your ego better suits Whale Oil type blogs, certainly your intelligence is at Slaters level I’m Wrong.

            • Bert/squeaky don’t be an idiot, there IS NO GOVT, so ram raids still continuing under Labours ‘soft on crime’ policy.
              Let’s see how many continue when National/ACT actually in Govt with new laws in place. (You know, CONSEQUENCES for criminals, that thing that’s been missing for criminals for last 6 years)

        • I am sick and tired of ignorant commenters who unfairly slate unions.
          A common meme is that the teachers did nothing under National, then struck like mad under Labour. As a former teacher unionist, I would like to point out that contracts now tend to last for 4 years, so it is only once every 4 years that teachers can legally campaign and strike.
          Secondary teachers were all set to fight like hell in 2011 , under the John Key Govt.
          But at the critical time, the Christchurch earthquakes happened.
          Work it out for yourselves, muppets like Jules and Trevor. Could teachers choose that moment to strike and cause trouble?
          Simplistic bullshit on your part.

          • Lets not forget 8 chch schools got closed down or merged.
            Plus John Key threatened ALL the public service unions with being closed down and deregistered if they struck.

          • So an earthquake in one city stopped the strikes in 2011 but a Global Pandemic, Floods and cyclones during Labours reign didn’t garner the same consideration…odd?

            • Not odd. How many of those calamities actually occurred during the teachers’ strikes? How many were as great and deadly as the Christchurch earthquakes? Use your head.

    • This new government – the coalition of destruction – will lead to more crime and more violent crime as those who might consider this sort of behaviour become more alienated.
      In addition this government are likely to cause even more young people to join gangs – again increased alienation – not to mention the ACT idea of bringing back psuedoepidrine to pharmacies (making working in these places much more risky) and National’s staunch opposition to drug law reform will empower gangs like never before – thanks National/ACT/Winston First – keep up the destruction of our country … not that any of those pricks give a shit – they will just up and relocate to a country with lax tax laws to remove their ill-gotten gains from NZ.
      Not that this post will ever see the light of day as the moderator is obviously a dumb fuck!

  5. Old Zealand with a sizeable chunk of New New Zealand… Hell, many aren’t even citizens. Wait for that to become common knowledge as people realise there will be perma-NACT on the back of foreign voters. Shh! don’t tell the truth, now!

    • Yep the nats spent millions on Tik tok advertising any time labour got mentioned a national add came up.
      Same on instagram.

      • But how many did Bennett have to sleep with to get that result Geoff?
        And how did Bennett get to be on an election night panel coverage considering she was part of Nationals campaigning? Hardly politically neutral?

  6. Assumung thr specials shift a seat or two, I suppose there’s still no chance of a LAB/GRN/NZF/TPM coalition?

    If NAT policy is so abhorrent to Winston, is there a chance?

    • To do that NACT have to lose two seats, or one seat plus there needs to be another overhang from a flip of a Maori seat to TPM. Probably less than 50% chance of that. That includes the by-election.

      • There are two Māori electorates that are less than 500 votes apart, so if those flip to TPM under specials, we will have the following (assuming Port Waikato brings in a National overhang):
        Total seats = 124 (3 from TPM, 1 from National)
        Lab – 34, Greens 14, TPM – 6 = 54 seats (9 short of the 63 seats needed to govern)
        Nat – 50, ACT – 11 = 62 seats (1 short of the 63 seats needed to govern).
        NZF – 8, can only form a government with NACT.

        However, add in a typical shift of a seat to the left bloc under specials, and you have:

        Lab + Greens + TPM = 55 seats (8 short of the 63 needed to govern),
        NAT + Act = 61 seats (2 short of the 63),
        NZF = 8, can form government with either bloc.

        In this scenario Labour should just call Winston and offer him the PM-ship for the lulz and to troll NACT. Everyone knows if that happens, he will go for it lmao …

        If none of that happens, and the specials simply go the way they did in 2017, then the news for the left bloc is even better (in terms of being closer to forming a government with Winston). But Labour seem to have thrown the towel in so .. who knows really …

        • Won’t happen. Winston knows he fucked up in 2017 just by being petty and childish about his beef with National. He knows he’s responsible for the fucking mess the country is in by putting a kindergarten govt in charge. He won’t shit on his conservative voters again.

          • If you think Winston won’t throw anyone and everyone under the bus for being PM you don’t know Winston lmao …

        • Labour should start a rumour that they are calling Winston to discuss this possibility – hell they should start the rumour by actually doing it. It will give Winston so much bargaining power it will be hilarious.

          Plus Winston at this point is the only one that can save us from Act’s extremism. I know he says all sorts of crazy shit on the campaign trail but the entire reason he set up NZ First was to oppose neoliberalism. And the whole reason Roger Douglas set up ACT was to extend neoliberalism so I can’t see it being an easy negotiation.

          If Luson was smart he wouldn’t go into coalition with either of them and just play them off against each other. I don’t think he is that smart but I’m open to being surprised.

          • Winston in government is quite different from Winston in campaign mode. I’m no fan of the crazy shit he spouts, or his weird racism, and to be honest a lot of his policies.

            But his track record on policy is that of a moderate conservative, in a way that’s quite similar to a lot of Labour conservatives.

            • How is Winston racist? He’s Maori, as are Shane Jones and his No threeCostello.

              Same with Act, Seymour has Maori heritage and so does Michelle McKee and Karen Chour.

              I think the left have failed to realise that a part of why they lost the election is that if you have concerns about the interpretation of the Treaty or you have questions about co-governance, you are accused of racism and white fragility (de Angelo’s discredited CRT shows in the later accusation).

              A lot of NZders were bloody sick of this and pissed off that it suppressed the debate we should be having.

              Btw the best bit of election debate/coverage I saw was the working group debate at the Backbencher, where Damien Grant insisted Simon Wilson answer Jordan Williams question “I don’t agree with co-governance so does that mean I am a racist?” When absolutely pushed by Grant, Wilson conceded Williams wasn’t a racist. Then Fran O’Sullivan said there are a whole lot of things were are not allowed to discuss, co-governance, gender and frankly it’s evil.

              Many thanks to Grant, O Sullivan and Martyn B for that bit of truth

        • exactly. have been saying all of the above to anyone who will listen. Found myself cheering for the Let bloc at the end of the night. Most interesting election since Helen Clark was first elected, IMHO.
          Te Atatu will almost certainly go back to Labour and Debra Russell could also regain seat. It ain’t over.

    • Even if Winston had a change of heart I don’t think Chippy would go with him after his penis police proposal, and especially not Greens or TPM

    • No. I hope it got NZ an end to the absence of choice. An end to forcing the left and the working-class into voting for a right-wing Labour with the threat of ‘worse under National’. Not courage, vision, policies and positive action, just the ever-present threat.

      It doesn’t work anymore. It’s over. I don’t think the political class had any idea of the level of anger in the community. Blaming the electorate’s stupidity needs to end quickly – the left has a lot of work to do.

      If Labour survives as anything more than a quaint nostalgia party for National to rely on for a few more votes for the right, there must be some serious soul-searching. This must be the end of standing for nothing.

      • You wouldn’t have said that when Labour were polling at between 50-60% eh?
        National are just opportunists for those who are looking for “change” not knowing that this change will definite;y not be for the better.
        National (and ACT even moreso) are incompetent and bereft of any “new” ideas. Assuming the power of the “market” is not new – it is older than Methusalah … but redistribution of wealth is not even 100 years old.
        This government will remove New Zealanders from owners of NZ and hand it over to foreigners – thanks National!

  7. Quote for the week:
    “We are fucked on the climate change front for a full 3 years until these lunatics get thrown out.”

    – actually, for far longer than 3 years, the cumulative damage will contribute to consequences that’ll continue for a millennia.

    The future will curse us with a hatred unimaginable.

    • Richard you are so right. History and our grandchildren will not judge us kindly for the feckless right wing greedy voters. I had almost come to terms with the whole debacle yesterday and there was some relief at not having to listen to the media’s relentless propaganda against the government. No doubt mistakes were made but how on earth do you recover from a global pandemic in 5 mins. In reflection I think Labour was doomed when it was elected as a majority government. They were always going to fall from a great height and there are obviously no real friends on the left. Then the expectations from the same left were very high. While in reality it enabled the right wing to rebuild and not have to do very much in opposition for 3 years. Luxon has been out and about campaigning for the last 2 years, while Jacinda and Chris Hipkins we’re dealing with disasters. Very quietly the money was rolling in to both National and ACT. Were the Labour party blinded by the very businesses (who stated they were broke ) and they then supported through covid . Now these very same businesses were probably donating the same tax payer dollars to the right wing parties. Also in the last few weeks of this campaign we have seen no other but the media darling John Key in the mix no doubt Stephen Joyce is also in the background pulling Luxon’s strings . We are in for a torrid time nothing will be what it seems there will be no honesty, no transparency In fact its already started with negotiations behind closed doors.

      • What a load of bollocks Queeny. That money given to businesses wasn’t given to make them rich but given so they could pay staff who were sitting at home doing nothing. The labour government couldn’t give a shit about business but didn’t want mass unemployment. After dealing with two lockdowns an explosion in crime and an extra petrol tax, Auckland especially had no reason to vote for this Labour government. As for the environment I agree that National need to keep the promises to try and attain targets they set, but if you think smashing a few farmers and plugging in a few electric cars will make one iota of difference to the world situation you are delusional.

        • And business doesn’t give a shit about people, just profit, you’d be retarded to think otherwise. Labour are right to try to protect employees because we know sure as hell, National won’t, 90 day trials an example.

      • The answer is for all rooms to close their cat doors and help in the repairs to the roof, not the idiotic course you are too cowardly to even say out loud, i.e. to do nothing and wait for the typhoon. You stupid, stupid “any excuse will do” freaks just make me sick.

    • Ahhh Richard, So we are all just going to ignore the hundreds of thousands of tons of Indonesian coal imported to NZ over the last 6 years (whilst NZ sitting on about a trillion tons of the stuff underfoot.)
      Sooooo ‘NO MINING!’, but buy in hundreds of thousands of tons from another country.
      Guess if National was doing this you would all be outraged, but shhhh Labour did it.

      • Ahhh tighty righty so National will immediately stop the importation of coal?
        Fuck you are thick but shhh it’s okay when National do it.

          • Probably because it will cost 29 lives , not that it affects you, such is your insular opinion and it has know affect on you gutless prick.

  8. From my conversations with workmates and family, and observations from people whose opinions I respect, there are three reasons the Labour vote collapsed while the Greens and TPM didn’t. They are a) Jacinda and Chippy didn’t adopt CGT and Wealth tax as their core support wanted, b) they didn’t implement any of the recommendations from the beneficiary inquiry, and c) they didn’t engage with clarity exactly what 3 Waters and Co-governance was about.
    When the low income and beneficiaries don’t get listened to they either switch – as many did, or they don’t vote – as many more did.
    They know they’re in for three rough years, during which the growing underclass in this country will harden. If it coalesces into an organised group, look out, because the parliamentary protests over vaccines will look like a quarrel in kindergarten. Just remember which branch of our military their children join if they don’t join a gang, and also remember what the predominant race of our SAS is.
    What may happen is both the CTU and Labour party might, just might, remember where it’s roots lie, and return to them. Then it might adopt policies that will suit the 75% of Kiwis that earn less than the average wage.

    • Wasn’t voter turn out 78.4%? Not quite the 1.7 million who didnt register or vote, but still a substantial number of disengaged, either don’t care, feel it makes no difference to them or purposefully withholding their democratic right.

      The all time low of 25.8% in 2011 prompted Jeoffery Palmer and Jim Bolger to argue for compulsory voting, like Australia. Jacinda Adhern was against it. Haven’t googled voter turn out in Australia but one would expect it to be higher than NZ, though the fines are small and not sure if they are really enforced.

      We’d have a different result if everyone who is eligible voted but itiswhatitis. Civic engagement is a gift of democracy but maybe Adhern is correct in saying legislation isn’t the answer to better participation.

  9. Chippy needs to stay on, and Labour needs to hit the ground running and work to winning the next election. NACT needs to be prised out in 2026 no matter what it takes. It will be difficult, but not impossible, they almost did it in 1993.

    For what its worth, I think a referendum should be held on a CGT/Wealth tax. Throw it out to the people and let them decide.

    • Since most people take out more from the system than they put in, no government is going to hold a referendum.

  10. Labour had all the advantages of incumbency including resources and implemented policies such as the funding of MSM to the tune of $55 million plus more than double that in government advertising spend largely promoting their brand/policy/ideology. Thus I don’t think the election was bought as despite all this advantage they lost badly. National attracted funding because their ideas were popular and the converse is true too; Labour donations were low because their policy was unpopular and performance poor.

    IMO the public IMO punished Labour for lack of delivery and general incompetence. National seemed more credible and the feeling that it was time for a change gained strength as the elections approached. Imploding ministers and the useless GST removal proposal reinforced a sense that Labour had done their dash. [BTW I did not vote National or Labour and was once a long term Labour supporter]

    • You do realise that workers will be screwed under National? So will the sick and the poor? Escept the wealthy cancer patients who will get their designer drugs.

      • Not necessarily Millsy I’ll respond to the health aspect. Note that many people believe health outcomes were better under National. It is a bit hard to quantify with Labour in some areas as they scrapped key performance indicators. From what indicators we do have things did go down hill under Labour. Focusing on spending not outcomes was a bad and elementary mistake from Labour as was scrapping targets. As for the sick I note today Tariana Turia saying health outcomes were better under National and she looks forward to the Nats being back in as they will be better for Maori health outcomes.

    • Now Trevor et.al. with all the revelations about Luxon’s smoke and mirrors on social platforms ie. trolls and misinformation etc.etc. . I want to know are you and Bob a real troll or a bot, are you now going to be un trolled for the next 3 years. These revelations about the manipulation of social media networks bought us the likes of Boris Johnson. Unfortunately it didn’t take long to recognize he was in over his head and thought himself much too clever for the common people and his own good .This truth is now only just coming out for NZ . This is what money does Trevor and not in a good way. When the people of NZ wake up to the realities of a right wing government they will eventually realize that it was all brought about by fake propaganda and false promises . Money talks hey Trevor and it obviously buys governments but thankfully not quite with a tenuous majority of one ,so there is a glimmer of hope for the future when the truth does come out.

    • Yes minor implosion here today. And the future isnt yet written. Who knows what we’ll be saying in a years time.

    • Those bloody useless yoofs didn’t show up again! Who woulda thunk?

      B Hickey.

      “1.060 million missing voters in the election out of a total eligible population of 3.871 million, with enrolment data and surveys showing most were young renters.

      That meant the ‘quorum’ for the election was just under 73% of the voting age population, with the vast majority of those missing voters being under the age of 40. The voting rate for the 18-24 year olds is likely to have slumped back towards 50% from over 60% in 2020. These young non-voters were also more likely to be Māori, Pasifika and recent young migrants from China, India and the Philippines.

      Both enrolment and voting rates dropped compared to the 2020 election, resulting in 183,169 fewer voters than if we saw the same enrolment and voting rates as in that last election.”

  11. ” Public Services – When Winston kills off National’s lifting of the foreign buyers ban, National’s entire economic house of cards collapses requiring mass public service cut backs, which will be funny because even if Winston greens lights it, it can never raise enough revenue to prevent National from slashing public services.

    Public Transport – National will mutilate public transport just as oil prices are about to skyrocket due to the looming war in the Middle East.

    Workers – Bosses to gain back the right to fire and scrap the Fair Pay Agreements which were the most substantial workers rights legislation passed in the last 40 years.

    Renters – Landlords to gain the right to evict, social housing builds will stop and Landlords will gain enormous powers as rental regulations are all rolled back.

    And the Nasties bought the election and did not win it.

    LINO and Hipkins are to blame for thinking they could coast along with the promise of getting back to basics and they couldn’t even deliver that because they represent the Managerial CLASS and those tears Hipkins wept weren’t for his traditional supporters he has thrown to the corporate wolves but for himself !!!!

    ” I expect the next three years to be vicious, cruel, and stupid – and that’s before even considering the divisive effects of ACT’s proposed Treaty referendum (which is an invite for social unrest). My hope is that National is forced into the arms of Winston, and then suffers his curse (two out of three governments forced to work with Winston have lost the next election – the exception being Ardern, who was saved by covid) ”

    ” So, yesterday we voted, and unsurprisingly, the party which stood for nothing and offered nothing lost. Anyone surprised by this clearly hadn’t been paying attention – the collapse in Labour’s party vote had been clear for the past two months, and while there was a bit of a rally in the last week, it was too little, too late. So, we’re stuck with National and ACT – and if the specials go the usual way, they’ll be forced into the clammy embrace of Winston, which means its chaos ahoy!

    Labour hacks are already blaming the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, both of whom had a very good night, which just shows that the relic status quo party still doesn’t understand MMP. As a reminder, electorates don’t matter – all that counts is the party vote. And the equation for the left there is that the Greens need to deliver 10%, and Labour 40% (TPM and the wasted vote can fudge these numbers a bit, but that’s the basic shape of it). The Greens kept up their end. Labour didn’t. This is their loss, and they need to own it, recognise why (I’d start with being a bunch of useless, uninspiring, status quo hacks), and most of all, fix it. But this being the Labour Party, I doubt that will happen. Instead, we’ll have three years of them deciding they need to be more centrist and promise even less – and then they’ll whine “why does nobody like us?” again.


  12. Winners:
    Luxon – he is the next PM. Simple, he won
    Peters – back inside the tent despite everyone saying he wouldn’t a couple of months back
    Greens – by being less shit than Labour.
    Nz Indians – evidently half an Indian is worth more than 3 Asians in the inner West of Auckland.

    Ardern – this is your legacy
    Hipkins – clearly middle NZ didn’t warm to Richie Cunningham on meth during the debates
    Act – Should be mid teens. At least.
    Wood – from heir apparent to out of the game in less than 6 months. Likely the next mayor of Auckland if his ego can handle it.
    Mahuta – overconfidence in the Iwi elite failed to translate into votes.
    Jackson – Labour’s Maori vote just got hit where it hurts. Will he now defect to join his mate JT?
    MSM media – Campbell held back the tears, Jess wanted to punch somebody and I believe Cunliffe again apologised for being a man. In for a hard 3 years especially if Peters or Jones is broadcasting Minister.

    • Put a pair of fishnet stockings back on Bennett and she’s back in her old job. With the Westie style hairdo that was done by Freddy the blind man Paula is open for business.
      Perhaps she should have apologized for being a women.

    • Just heard a stat that Nationals nationwide vote was 38%.

      In Auckland it was 46%

      No way the minister of filth is getting anywhere near the the mayoral chains.

    • Loser. Gerry Brownlee as speaker.
      You can just hear the words now I’m on my feet”
      I can”t as that requires effort.

    • Reads very well Frank, especially the bit about Cunliffe. His gob-smacking apology for being a man was seen as an embarrassing aberration back then, but in hindsight it portended what was to come from LINO.

  13. Now we know where you were. Far too long an accusation. Mostly right as I passed it by. So, god help us. The last years of the felicity of words. Hope you’re having fun.

  14. Willis and Bishop will have a crack at rolling Luxo I recks. Or Seemorebutt will have a hissy because he’s not the boss and doesn’t get his way and alienates himself causing a split and Winston will call him out…

    But the big question is. Will TMP jump into bed with them all because that’s the smart move. Also it might protect JT’s $170m Whanau Ora contracts.

  15. The special votes will be interesting and may not favour the left this time around. Remember there has been an ongoing brain drain overseas of our best and brightest and they will probably vote National/Act plus there are a lot of kiwis that couldn’t come back during Covid who would have wanted a change of government as well.

  16. ” The Spinoff’s Hayden Donnell also cites Hipkins’ decision to reject radical tax reform for Labour’s demise: “Hipkins’ ‘captain’s call’ sealed off election opportunities for Labour…. Without real tax relief to offer people on lower incomes, Hipkins became a salesman with nothing to sell”.

    And Donnell says that this was a real problem during a cost of living crisis: “When it came time to present his alternative, Hipkins could only offer 45c off parsnips and some free dental for some people in three years’ time.”


  17. ” Despite the shiny veneer of ‘change’, National and ACT are simply returning us to failed policies of the past and doubling down on a climate-devastated future that will deepen poverty, racism and injustice – while offering relief for millionaires.

    They may have won the election, but we must not forget that they needed to rile up racism, lie about their tax cuts and procure mega political donations to pay for it.
    We will not pretend that the coming months and years will be easy, but we can promise you that we will fight their divisive, biased and backward policies every step of the way.


  18. Brooke Van Veldon – As a 30 year old, Brooke is the only woman in NZ who dresses like she’s 53! Brooke’s wardrobe will receive the pension before she does, which is probably why ACT are so keen to push Super up to 67!

    lol – great segue – at least she ain’t a 73 year old who dresses like a 30 year old. O’Connors supporters would have been crying mascara and botox in the 1071 – dahling

  19. Labour just made big strategic mistake. Instead of relaunching themselves with a fresh look and lineup and some bold new ideas, they reappointed the same guy who lost them the election and 30 odd MPs. Of course, we know who is behind the decision…it’s the fan club with Sepuloni, Woods, Davis and other useless deadwoods who would be in a very very very uncomfortable position with a dynamic new leader. They may find themselves out on the street sooner than they want! But with same ol’ Chippie in charge, status quo is preserved. Salaries are safe!

    • Labours strategic mistake was letting a corrupt right wing coalition win, same ol corruption.

Comments are closed.