Chips falling: Election preliminaries, specials, scenarios.

47
2049

As I began writing this the day after the general election (15/10/2023) it became apparent to the voters that NZ First will be needed in some capacity to support a presumptive National-Act government. This is, after all, what the voters wanted. Or at least it should be apparent. The last RNZ news bulletin I heard on Sunday night said National and Act would form government, Luxon is to be the next Prime Minister etc. oh but by the way NZ First might be needed, said as if it was a minor detail. ‘Tis no detail. This despite Luxon proclaiming victory at 11:20pm and Hipkins saying he had conceded to him by phone at about 10:00pm on Saturday. The suicidal ineptitude being played out on such a grand scale was infuriating and yet so predictable. What are you doing man!?

The whole campaign, indeed the whole government since Jacinda abandoned them, had been one slow act of falling on their sword, and last night Chippy pre-emptively completed the coup de grace by falling on his own sword when the battle was still going on and the other side hadn’t even won. An unprompted, unconditional surrender. Don’t try; rather a drop kick of victory straight between the uprights of defeat to bring things to a tidy conclusion. A ginger drop kick indeed. Christ what a fucking loser. Is he just thick? Not a hundred? Is he even on our side? Is he even on his own side? Is he wrestling with the demon of meth addiction? Help me understand. I couldn’t watch, I couldn’t meet his pained eyes on the three channels that were on when they all switched to this livestreamed untergang. Shameful. At least the lackadaisical Black Knight from the Holy Grail film had the dignity of having his enemy lop off each of his limbs in turn rather than cut them all off himself as he had done during the course of the entropic, doomed campaign.

He never expected he would be PM, he never quite knew how to be PM, he certainly never looked like a PM – and then, on Saturday night, he just gave up being PM, so he never should have been PM, should he. Not to overstate his gravitas, but he had looked like a maths or economics teacher bearing the visible anguish of being burdened with the role of Deputy Principal for a term. His team must have had little respect for him; the open wholesale caucus and cabinet back-biting on the wealth tax proved this. Hipkins was a mistake in retrospect, albeit obvious enough and safe enough of a choice at the time, but Labour’s logic was once you’re locked into a fatal spiral you just have to keep swimming with the current because it’s easier to die that way.

And he picked up that phone and called that ballhead, happy-clappy, Rolex-bashing wannabe John Key and cucked himself, and he got on that stage and made that speech of total surrender in between announcements about a girlfriend, for fuck’s sake, and threw the whole party, the Labour movement, more than a quarter of the electorate, the security and hopes of the beneficiaries and the working class under a fucking bus – a NActional bus that he let Winston drive. Monumentally hopeless with the emphasis on mentally and less. Would any other Labour leader have given up like that – hell no! Mike Moore faced a similar predicament on election night 1993 and gave the mother of all speeches vowing never surrender. A man famed only for pretending to like sausage rolls and absent any recognisable personality was always incapable of such heights. Goeth the hour, goeth the man.

Winston was clearly delighted at the return of NZ First being well clear of the 5% threshold early on. But – incredibly – the ferry from Russel leaves at 10pm so he was forced to make his remarks at 9:30pm that had the tone of a concession, telling reporters on the way out his offer to help in any way possible if needed was an act of patriotism. Hold your horses rodeo man and hold your tickets punters – the thing is not settled at all.

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There was a weird lull – like the times in a big rugby game when the crowd become uninterested in the play and nothing is seeming to happen, a moment of atrophy. It is at these moments of inattention when things often turn decisively in a game precisely because they are unnoticed initially by the teams or the observers, fumbles occur. My twitter post records it was 9:54pm. A collective pause where people have the space to ruminate. Something didn’t seem right. It was a silent period. All three streams same thing. Odd. Too quiet. What is occurring? National began tanking, NZ First began rising, Labour started to claw back. A tidal shift in booths when reporting goes from rural to urban. I bet that was the minute when  Mr Hipkins dialled Mr Luxon and proceeded to shit his pants and fuck it all up. Was he taking his own advice or Robertson’s? The moment of death. Hope was killed – sacrificed, for what?

At 9:56pm Marama was beside James on the stage at Greens party central just after this ebb waving her hands around wildly, pointing and jabbing and chopping and flinging. Her earrings – reputedly James’ gold-plated testicles – were dancing around like poi as she railed against Versailles. I kept the sound off, she is yelling, clearly. I have no intention of listening to her spectrum-level pitchy assailment that does her no favours, it is embarrassing. The closest I can think of is Judith Collins during the TV debates with Jacinda going full hysteria and gasping and flailing and cackling like the Joker played by Caesar Romero in the original TV series. Ma has those vibes when she’s in full Fuhrer mode. Not a fan. James just stands there like the modern man must, to support, to affirm, to listen – did he even get to speak? Wellington is doubtlessly a hermetic bubble blowing around the rest of the country’s cash into the pockets of the conformist dolts of the capital creating a subsidised artificiality where the Greens prosper – Wellington Central was predictable and Rongotai was a possibility, both turned Green with accompanying huge party votes.

Lots of middle-aged women competing with all the middle-aged men on all three streams for who has the biggest, chunkiest fuck off black rimmed glasses. It’s like a Kenny Everett show every time you check back the glasses get bigger. By 10:12pm it emerged that Te Pati Maori’s massive landslide electorate votes may well cause an overhang. The movement in the Maori seats is substantial and signals a break with Labour and the effective rise of the next generation. Waititi’s thumping majority – when he has barely been in the electorate (!) – foretold the mood was “unapologetically” for self-determination. Excitement. Trepidation. Rimmer arriving at 10:18pm. He would give his usual robotic speech, chastened as he has been in the last week of campaigning by sliding opinion polls coming home to roost after his speed wobbles caused by his own arrogance, race baiting and exposure of his weaker candidates. Brooke looked rouged, almost to the point of exhibiting human complexion and emotion, she was being coy but had beaten Godboy soundly to take Tamaki. A substation will have to be commissioned for Purewa cemetery so they can hook up Rob’s spinning corpse to the grid.

Hooton was the first to twig on the dicey numbers at 10:20pm. My own forecast published on The Daily Blog on Election Eve gave National-Act only a 20% chance of a clean 2 party government – every other realistic combo would definitely have NZ First included. It could well end up a hung parliament 60-60 (or 61-61). (My forecasts and scenarios following the preliminary count on the night are as below). But five minutes later a deflated, shattered looking Hipkins arrived at the Labour wake and the count on screen has Labour at 26.3% and National at 40.2%. At 10:30pm I’m on twitter begging Hipkins to wait another hour if he has to “Will Hipkins make his final bad call and chuck in the towel?” You betcha. 10:37pm He said he rang Luxon to concede. 10:49pm Hipkins stops to hug Robertson on the way out, you can’t see the dagger in Robbo’s hand but I’m very sure it’s there.

10:56pm and the ZB drongos are musing with Hooton that maybe Hipkins shouldn’t have conceded. And then, just to double down – as this dumbbell has done every time – Chumpkins starts popping up in each feed in sequence doing interviews which can only be to confirm that he has conceded, followed by awkward questions about his failings and future that he can’t and wont answer. So, why the hell is he doing these fucking interviews!? Humiliating and pointless – does he think this is somehow cathartic for himself, did Robbo advise him to do these rounds as well? My God, man, you loser, get the fuck out of our faces you ginga drop kick loser – how many times do I have to say it and you have to think it?

Luxon had left what must have been his John Key copycat mansion just before 11pm. And so Luxon, his pre-melanomic head dusted in low sheen make up, sporting a glowing near iridescent blue tie, under the lights, moving like an egg floating in a pool made his way to the microphone at the downtown wharf of Nats party central and announces victory at 11:19pm. The chant of “National’s back!” that went up had a hateful inflexion.

It was telling that on Newshub Nation the morning after the panel agreed Hipkins had to go and fast that when the host said who should take over there was silence. No names were mentioned, not Robertson, not Parker, no-one. There is no one. Bereft.

Forecasts and scenarios

My forecast at Election Eve v. Election night. Plus two Specials Scenarios – 2017 basis and my forecast scenario for the top 7 parties.

Vote +Electorates = Total MPs

Scenarios [difference from preliminary to final]

National

Forecast: 38% +41* = 48*

Election night: 38.95% +45 = 50

2017 Specials scenario: [-1.58%] 37.37% +45 = 48

Forecast Specials scenario: [-1.20%] 37.75% +42 = 48

Labour

Forecast: 24.9% +25 = 31

Election night: 26.90% +17 = 34

2017 Specials scenario: [+1.10%] 28.00% +17 = 36

Forecast Specials scenario: [+0.70%] 27.6% +20 = 35

Greens

Forecast: 13.5% +1 = 17

Election night: 10.77% +3 = 14

2017 Specials scenario: [+0.42%] 11.19% +3 = 14

Forecast Specials scenario: [+0.50%] 11.27% +3 = 14

Act

Forecast: 8.5% +2 = 11

Election night: 8.98% +2 = 11

2017 Specials scenario: [-0.01] 8.97% +2 = 11

Forecast Specials scenario: [-0.30%] 8.68% +2 = 11

NZ First

Forecast: 8% +nil = 10

Election night: 6.46% +nil = 8

2017 Specials scenario: [-0.31%] 6.15% +nil = 8

Forecast Specials scenario: [+0.20%] 6.66% +nil = 8

Te Pati Maori

Forecast: 3.5% +3 = 4

Election night: 2.61% +4 = 4 (overhang)

2017 Specials scenario: [+0.10%] 2.71% +4 = 4

Forecast Specials scenario: [+0.30%] 2.91% +4 = 4

TOP

Forecast: 1.5% +nil = nil

Election night: 2.07% +nil = nil

2017 Specials scenario: [+0.23%] 2.30% +nil = nil

Forecast Specials scenario: [+0.20%] 2.27% +nil = nil

New Conservatives

Forecast: 1.1% +nil = nil

Election night: 0.15% +nil = nil

Democracy NZ

Forecast: 0.3% +nil = nil

Election night: 0.24% +nil = nil

Freedoms NZ

Forecast: 0.3% =nil =nil

Election night: 0.31% +nil = nil

ACLP/NZLoyal/NewZeal/NZOFP

Forecast: all <0.3% each +nil =nil

Election night: NZLoyal 1.15%, NewZeal 0.56%, ACLP 0.39%

 Total = 121 MPs*

*Nats to win Port Waikato by-election

BLOC TOTALS

Forecast: Nat+Act = 59 (need +2) and Lab+Grn+TPM = 52 (need +9)* /121 incl. Port Waikato by-election win by Nats.

Election night: Nat+Act = 61 (majority of 1) and Lab+Grn+TPM = 52 (need +9) /121 overhang of 1.

2017 Specials scenario: Nat+Act = 59 (need +2) and Lab+Grn+TPM = 54 (need +7) /121 overhang of 1.

Forecast Specials scenario: Nat+Act = 59 (need +2) and Lab+Grn+TPM = 53 (need +8) /120 no overhang.

ANALYSIS

See – National and Act will not have a majority based on what happened in 2017. I am using that basis because 2020 was such an outlier. My forecast scenario is adjusted 2017 data taking into account NZ First surging and Act declining. The Maori Party may pick up more party votes eliminating the overhang.  The three seats with Labour short by less than a hundred should go back to them on specials but this will not affect the overall result. It all hinges on NZ First.

Is it too late for Labour to approach NZ First to work out an alternative? What is the mood of the Labour caucus? Neil Jones on RNZ this morning advised Hipkins to stay on for six months – keep taking his appalling advice some more why don’t they. Time to change.

47 COMMENTS

  1. The fact that we are even entertaining a Duckworth Lewis scenario after rain delay, shows you how fucked this form of MMP is. Pinch 0.3 here, add 0.0002 there, divide by 1.0345 and subtract 0.00001. What kind of govt do you think you’d get with Labour using that kind of system. The country just told them “we don’t want you anymore, fuck off”. And there you go trying to find an Einstein Calculation to force the same shit show back onto us poor citizens. Enough! Go away now Labour.

    • Wrong. If enough parties agree to form a majority, that is how the system should work. Your ignorant ravings are irrelevant.
      And stop over-simplifying – it reflects badly upon you.

    • Not the country 39% of the country. Our country is very divided . Seymore got 8.9% yet he wants to redefine the TOW Not exactly a overwhelming majority to make something so significant insignificant. And if we do a break down of voters many will be newbies to our country Not good for us as a country or public relations. Social cohesion is non existent people want change but change will take a very long time and come at a costs. Many NZers have become very selfish and it’s sad for us as a country.

      • ” Many NZers have become very selfish and it’s sad for us as a country. ”

        Yes which is a direct result of the greed and encouraged plutocracy that neo liberal polices encourage.

  2. If there’s one good thing about the enduring disease that’s roger douglas’s neo-liberalism it’s that all our political parties have it so no risk then of catching it. We can discuss the in’s out’s of the mythologies of AO/NZ’s different political leanings until the polluting cow comes home to shit on the carpet roger’s swept our economy under because that’s where roger’s cock-roach accomplices slither about as they move money from there to further over there.
    I’m going to ask this one question. Let’s see who has the correct answer.
    Of the 14 Aotearoa/New Zealand multi-billionaires, the 3118 multi-millionaires with a minimum of $50 mil each and the four now foreign owned banks stealing, or perhaps more defrauding, $180.00 a second out of our AO/NZ after tax every second 24/7/365 is farmer? A farmer who farms exclusively and only for his/her/they/them’s income? As a farmer who provided AO/NZ with its PRIMARY industry finances.
    The reason I ask is because #A. I’m a farmer and I don’t have $millions much less the all but mythical $Billions and yet a once was panel beater and tow truck operator, graeme hart has 14 of the billions? #B Should I ask?
    How? He says he can smell money. I say I smell the bull shit coming out of the bull that’s fucked aforementioned cow that’s yet to come FUCKING home. #C How come we never talk about who earns our money, ever, and #D how does that money mysteriously disappear between the consumer and the farmer who farms that which we ship then sell? # E Where the fuck is our money? # F For Fucks Fucking Sake! Where the fuck is our primary industry money? Less than .70cents worth of wool becomes a $200 jersey! A bale of exported wool goes all the way there then becomes carpet to be in a flash house in Herne Bay which the banks will launder via the home owner which will then return billions of dollars to everyone except the sheep farmers who’s sheep grew the stuff but wait, there’s more. Those sheep-farmer farmers are broke as fuck and have to, you guessed it, borrow money from the same banks that broker dirty deals with the same wool. Is that a double-bubble of what?
    #G A lot of money is disappeared between the woolshed and the carpeted plasti-mansions with views of a shitty, rattly, ugly bridge and a polluted, muddy swamp. Aye Boys?
    You had a blubbering little twit and now you have Psycho-Baldylocks who’s soon to be in bed with a Pink Twerker and there’s a vast crime happening right under our noses. Honestly, you couldn’t invent this shit. While swollen farmers drive their tractors around in small circles then slink home to service bankster debts there, are in the cities, people who are not farmers buying Ferrari’s for half a million.
    For those of you who still can’t tie your own shoelaces and are in grieving at the election outcome, then here’s a word or two of comfort for your little selves. National? Labour? The same fuckin’ thing man.

  3. Talk about self preservation, captain Chippy ran for the lifeboats before the women and children, and the ship wasn’t even sinking. And we have everyone congratulating National for their victory before the votes are even counted, including Elon Musk, which could be interpreted as foreign interference in our election. Musk is not just another social media influencer or businessman. He isn’t just another elite grooming fanboys or another tycoon filling land and space with junk in the name of progress, he has intimate ties to the security state, he has provided technology for foreign armies and he has said “America will coup who they want to coup”. He has to be considered part of the American State apparatus and one which could have influenced the negotiations between New Zealand political party’s if negotiations are needed.

    • Clutching at straws Ethan?
      Tell us how the left can possibly form a Govt when the specials are counted?
      500k all for Labour you reckon?
      There will be no ‘left’ majority in those specials after what Labour (Chippy and Ardern) did with the NZ population Covid blockade.
      (Although DJs and entertainers could come and go as they pleased it seems)

  4. Labour , Greens, Maori Party, all in opposition……thumb twiddlers, ……it will be interesting to see how many companies from the media , print and broadcasting, will still be around in the next 3 years, unemployed gravy train drivers all gone , the unemployment lines will be an interesting and fruity mix of overheads , some ex university hangers on , some ex government paper shufflers, …..the young , uneducated , unskilled youth might have some competition from this new lot for the McDonald’s type jobs….

    • Why do you think the public servants were so keen on Robertsons ‘unemployment tax’?
      So they could take a 6-8mth break when they get made redundant, not now…they will have to live off the redundancy cash till they find another job, same as the bloody rest of NZ has to do when we were all made redundant at some stage in our working lives.

        • Really In Vino, you can’t be that stupid, almost everyone who posts here either have had redundancy or it’s already part of their work contract…..If you work for a Govt dept, a bank, almost every company of a reasonable size to the huge ones in NZ, ALL have redundancy as part of their contracts. How much depends on the company but usual is 3-4 weeks for year 1 then either 2-3 weeks for every year worked thereafter. Some companies limit it to either 26 weeks some 52 weeks and others it just keeps adding up.
          Are you ignorant of how contracts work, have you never worked In Vino?

          • “Almost everyone” ?
            Bollocks. I for one worked continuously until I was 75, and never had any redundancy.
            Perhaps you should examine your own ignorance.

          • I’m Right….do you mean Chardonnay redundancies…?? The battlers at the bottom of the heap get very little….

      • These are people you are talking about they deserves to be treated decently not crapped on. Many will have mortgages, rates, insurance so can you stop being a cunt I’m right.

  5. It all became so complicated. We had the Luxon fan girls wetting their pants on live TV. We had the fan boys calling it a victory at 7pm what did they call it “ blue phobia” or some such media beat up nonsense. There was none so sad to see as Chris Hipkins all on his own on that stage, however he was taking full responsibility for the loss. Remember not one day as PM there was the Auckland flooding and cyclone Gabrielle, I defy anyone to come out of that unscathed. Then he had his ministers running amok all over the show. Surely they must take some responsibility for this debacle. Then of course the collective misinformation from the media from day one of the Labour government in 2017 . They were relentless in their criticism especially during covid. History will show how dangerous they were at this time with their inane rhetoric, questioning and nitpicking on a scale never seen before. Aided and abetted by this collection of NACT politicians we now have to try and run this country. The next few months will be telling ,but I have a bit of advice for Luxon he may want to run this country like a CEO but I ain’t one of his employees.

    • Ahhh Queeny, running the old ‘not my PM’ line.
      I didn’t vote for Ardern but had to suck it up that she got to be anointed by Winnie in 2017 and won out right in 2020, the majority voted and alliances via MMP made, it’s how politics work in NZ.
      The difference with me and you is I didn’t fucking moan and cry about it like you apparently will for the next 3 years (more likely 9!)
      How old are you, 12?

      • The media would like to be the ones who write history, and if they get the chance, you can be sure that History will not judge them badly.

      • True I’m right who is in charge does not effect me but coming from a business background sometime as an employee sometimes as an employer I hated to see the way the country was being run.The waste of money ,the racism, the lack of law and order ,inflation caused by poor policy so many thinks that need to be brought back into line and we now have the team to do it.
        I

      • I’m right, are we not entitled to our opinions any more, what happened to your jibes of woke and free speech. The difference between you and me is that I don’t make things personal, also the difference between you and me is you are a wa***r and I am not !!

    • I keep telling the likes of “Queeny” that if the MSM were as right-wing as she claims, or even slightly right-wing, Righties like me would be buying the papers, subscribing, watching, and listening to them.

      But we’re not. We want them to die. The only Righties who don’t are the 65+ crowd who can’t change after a lifetime of switching on the news at 6pm.

      • Well Theasus thank you for your sage advice, I guess if you don’t read newspapers you won’t see the right wing propaganda or if you don’t look at the news especially all the breakfast shows and hosts you can feign ignorance and be in denial. Now that we know that Luxon et.al ran a complex social campaign with fake trolls and misinformation which captured the media headlines you might change your mind. These are the same people who got Boris Johnston elected and look how that went ??? also Scott Morrison who holidayed while Australia burnt, and what about good old Eion Musk . No doubt Luxon’s team has shares in twitter . So the question still is was Luxon actually on holiday in Te Puke or Hawaii I guess we will never know because of his AI persona.

    • You got that right queeny, that Bald fucker Luxon was despised by his Employees at Air when he was CEO, apparently he was a right arsehole when it came to wage increases & then when he left that Company, Air NZ was $33 billion in debt, which required a nearly $1 billion dollar Taxpayer bailout, but old Baldrick left with his $4.2 million Salary & bonuses as reward for nearly bankrupting Air NZ! What a prick & now he’s in charge of NZ & its Finances, we are truly fucked with this arsehole in charge?

      • I think your story would not stand up to a fact check.He didd very well at Air Nz as he did at Unilver but facts do not fit your story

  6. You have 121 seats in your scenarios. There are already 121 because of the overhang from the Maori seats. Then there will be an extra from the by-election. so shoudl be 122 total? You also have Nats losing two seats, but only one gain for Lab. What happened to the other seat? Or does one seat go away somehow?

  7. The election has been decided according to these media headlines:

    “Incoming PM (Luxon)”
    “PM-elect Luxon”
    “Luxon lands politics top job”
    “Luxon gets the job as PM”
    “Labour didn’t win”
    “Labour lose election”
    “Greens expect to do good work in opposition”

    • Oooh Jody
      Labour have ruled out working with Labour…NZ1st ruled out working with Labour.
      Now tell me which of the below is not fact? Oh you may not like it, hate it in fact, but which one is incorrect?!

      “Incoming PM (Luxon)”
      “PM-elect Luxon”
      “Luxon lands politics top job”
      “Luxon gets the job as PM”
      “Labour didn’t win”
      “Labour lose election”

      • Please respect the rights of those that cast a special vote. You don’t start negotiations before democratic elections are even completed.

      • Labour has no right to rule anything in or out, they capitulated and just gave up before the votes were even counted. The Labour voters should have the decision as to who to coalition with, not these quitters.

  8. Always enjoy your columns Tim but on this one, I have to say -Of course, it’s too late to get a deal out of Winston!

    Maybe if Chippie hadnt used the “I’ll not work with Winston” lever but he screwed the pooch (and I thought this at the time) because Winnie doesnt like to be screwed over and Winnie likes to prove he can run rings around others.

    But more to the point, this is Winston’s legacy election so he will not be pushed off the scent trail of a few issues he sees as vital to NZs future. At 78 years old and the country in tatters, what’s in it for Winston? He cant take money with him but he can leave behind a legacy (in his eyes).

  9. Looking forward to our trade agreement with India. And the ZB lot will have to find someone new to slag off now labours met there demise. I wonder if Luxons lists of lies will surpass his buddy Keys.

    • Don’t forget, no more pot holes, ramraiders or crime within the first 100 days cip. So looking forward too it.

      • Yes and how many state jobs gone by Xmas said tricola whose looking at luxon like a puppy waiting to suck on his mummy’s titty.

  10. Really? You still think NZ First might go with Labour? If so, I think you need to watch the NZF candidates’ video on repeat mode for an hour or two… until their message sinks in!
    I guess Hipkins did that before Saturday night.

  11. Yes, I agree with ya antforce62, but it was always going to be difficult up against the 8.6-million-dollar rich donors. Baldrick also had Joyce and Key working hard. I saw keys face when Baldrick won, he looks ten years older despite him being a rich fucker he has been working hard behind the scenes campaigning. The lockdown costs Labour too but it unfortunately means we have to suffer again let’s hope it’s a short three-year term for this nasty lot. I am really worried about health for our Māori and PI peoples and our poor Pakeha whanau. Then we have the new sinister Minister for police Mitchell the mercenary. I believe there will be anarchy on the streets and in our prisons. I foresee another hikoi much larger than we have ever seen if Baldrick does not have the balls to stop the TOW referendum.

  12. Yes, I agree with ya antforce62, but it was always going to be difficult up against the 8.6-million-dollar rich donors. Baldrick also had Joyce and Key working hard. I saw keys face when Baldrick won, he looks ten years older despite him being a rich fucker he has been working hard behind the scenes campaigning. The lockdown costs Labour too but it unfortunately means we have to suffer again let’s hope it’s a short three-year term for this nasty lot. I am really worried about health for our Māori and PI peoples and our poor Pakeha whanau. Then we have the new sinister Minister for police Mitchell the mercenary. I believe there will be anarchy on the streets and in our prisons. I foresee another hikoi much larger than we have ever seen if Baldrick does not have the balls to stop the TOW referendum.

  13. Yes and how many state jobs gone by Xmas said tricola whose looking at luxon like a puppy waiting to suck on his mummy’s titty.

    • Yes cip they are like kids in a candy store, very juvenile and still to reach kindergarten. Even Chris Bishop said he’d do anything his boss asks him to do, eewwww!

      Just Fuck off would be a start.

  14. These are people you are talking about they deserves to be treated decently not crapped on. Many will have mortgages, rates, insurance so can you stop being a cunt I’m right.

  15. ACT, who also have a much more critical attitude on China issues, may also want to see a more ‘hawkish’ Foreign Minister, particularly if it means Peters is out of the country and regularly away from economic and political dramas. See more below, including detail on National’s connections with China through former National MP Jian Yang and donations to National from business people connected to CCP-linked organisations, along with the Security Intelligence Services’ naming of China with Russia and Iran as states engaged in foreign interference in a report in August.

    Bernard Hickey from The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

  16. What rock has Seymour been under? He thinks we should have a discussion on ‘The Treaty’. I have news for him, that discussion has been going on officially since the Act was passed in 1975 and for many years before that. So now he doesn’t like the outcome of that process he wants a yes/no referendum to get his way. Will Luxon have the moral fibre, and common sense, to say No?

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