An exciting week, as Ukraine transitions from small shaping and probing operations to larger offensive operations, however last week did not produce the ‘tipping point’ discussed in recent weeks. A point at which Ukraine decides that; either
- The offensive is not working, so it is time to slow down consolidate its gains and preserve its reserve; or
- The offensive is working and that it is time to commit its reserve.
Ukraine has developed a large reserve of roughly 50-60,000 soldiers formed into two corps, each of about 25-30,000 soldiers. 9th Corps is equipped with a mixture of Russian / Soviet and modern NATO equipment, while 10th Corps is equipped almost exclusively with modern NATO equipment. Both corps have experienced soldiers that received training overseas, returned to Ukraine and joined their units. In military terms, 9th and 10th Corp’s are Ukraine’s heavy hitting formations that can be deployed on the campaign’s axis of ‘main effort,’ and are the force that will be used to break through Russia’s defences and exploit their rear areas.
Over the last eight weeks Ukraine has slowly but surely probing Russia’s defences using small units of about 100 soldiers and a dozen vehicles. This activity’s aim is to gather intelligence and ‘shape’ the enemy. It tests Russian defences and allows Ukraine to map out the things that can’t be seen on satellite photos. Things like minefields, defensive positions dug under the cover of trees, artillery hidden in woods or buildings and hidden groups of reserve soldiers. This testing forces Russia to reveal its artillery and to move its own reserves out of hiding to counter attacks. Whenever these forces are spotted Ukraine tries to destroy them with long-range precision attacks by weapons like HIMARs, steadily reducing Russia’s combat power. Further, it forces Russia to move forces around the frontline allowing Ukraine to influence their location; or to ‘shape’ where the enemy is strong or weak. Meanwhile, 9th and 10th Corps have been held safe, behind the lines, well-rested and ready to strike when weaknesses start to appear in the Russian frontline.
This week there are unconfirmed reports that units from Ukraine’s 9th and 10th Corps are entering the battle possibly indicating that Ukraine is getting ready to commit its forces to a ‘main effort’ section of the frontline and try to achieve a breakthrough. On Tuesday and Wednesday military bloggers started to report large groups of Ukrainian tanks near Orikhiv, however in the earliest stages these reports were not in mainstream media and of limited credibility. Then over the last few days, more information has started to emerge providing a better picture of what is happening in Ukraine; and how the campaign may develop. At this stage there are five key areas of interest in Ukraine;
- A Russian counter in the north-east.
- The area around Bakhmut.
- Ukraine’s advance from near Orikhiv towards Tokmak; and perhaps further toward Melitopol.
- The Velyka Novosilka salient.
- Crimea.
The next few paragraphs provide a summary of the situation in each of these areas of interest.
Russia’s counter attack in the north-east
Over the last few weeks Russia has been concentrating forces along the Svatove-Kremina Line that roughly parallels the T1312 motorway running north from Kremina into Russia. The force build up was significant, around 100,000 newly mobilised soldiers. Early, last week Russia used this force to conduct an offensive near a village called Novoyehorivka that lies in very broken country roughly 15km west of Svatove. This advance was sudden and effective pushing the Ukrainian defenders in the area back. However, by the end of the week the situation stabilised Ukraine stopping the attack; and the broken nature of the local terrain makes it unlikely that the Russians will be able to advance quickly and create a significant issue in this area. This was the same terrain that caused the culmination of last year’s Ukrainian offensive in Luhansk.
Bakhmut
Ukraine’s offensive includes considerable pressure on Bakhmut. South of the city, Ukraine has flattened out the Russian salient centred on Klishchiivka, advancing about 5-6km over a frontage of approximately 11km. The towns of Klishchiivka, Andrivka and Kurdyumivka appear to be under Ukrainian attack. In the north, Ukrainian forces are pushing hard against Berkhivka about 5km from their start line and sitting on high ground that would allow for artillery observation supporting an advance to Krasna Hora or Soledar helping to encircle Bakhmut.
The most important development is related to Klishchiivka, Andrivka and Kurdyumivka all of which sit on a system of ridgelines and high ground that run north-east on an orientation that could allow Ukraine to advance more easily in that direction and cut-off Bakhmut. Essentially, in recent days Bakhmut got harder for Russia to hold. If Klishchiivka falls it opens the way for a rapid Ukrainian advance north and east, protected by high ground towards the main road that supplies Bakhmut. A very high-risk situation for Russia’s defenders.
Orikhiv towards Tokmak
The biggest news this week though relates to the advance from Orikhiv, early in the week there were reports of large Ukrainian forces attacking in the area. Later, we discovered that Ukrainian forces had attacked the village of Robotyne about 10km from their start line and been pushed back, at which point they swung east and made some significant ground increasing the depth of the advance in this area to about 6km over a 10 km frontage. This advance appears to include capturing a section of Russian trenches.
This activity included reports of modern NATO tanks and armoured vehicles that indicated deployment of 9th and 10th Corps units may have started and that perhaps that Ukraine’s main effort is this axis. However, as this article is being written there is not enough information to confirm the situation.
The Velyka Novosilka salient
The salient has almost been flattened, Ukrainian forces advancing on a frontage of about 30km have pushed Russian forces back about 8-9km across the length of the salient. The big news in the last couple of days is that Ukraine appears to have captured Stariomaiorsk, an important village because it sits on a road junction and dominates an area that can be used as a base for Ukraine’s next push south.
Crimea
Throughout the week Ukraine has maintained a constant series of attacks against logistics hubs, ammunition dumps, barracks and other key military infra-structure in Crimea. Activity likely to be closely linked with the wider land campaign stripping away Russian ammunition reserves and damaging their supply lines.
In summary, the situation is developing quickly and Ukraine’s hard work may soon pay dividends. Reports of 9th and 10th Corps assets entering the battle are circulating in the military blogging community, but they are not confirmed yet. Further, the reports of major attacks in the south near Orikhiv appear to show an escalation in Ukrainian activity. An assessment that is supported by President Zelenskyy’s recent bullish statements and visiting the frontline. Previously, most Ukrainian operations have been relatively small about 100 people and a dozen armoured vehicles and this week we have had reports of attacks involving 40-80 vehicles.
However, this is not a huge number of vehicles for instance a NATO battlegroup (a task organised combat team based around a battalion organisation) consists of roughly:
- 2-3 infantry companies each with about 14-16 armoured vehicles.
- A tank company/armoured squadron with 14-16 tanks
- Support vehicles including engineers, mortars, anti-tank vehicles, artillery forward observers and armoured ambulances; or about another 20 – 30 armoured vehicles.
A total of between 60-90 vehicles. Russian, Soviet and possibly Ukraine tactical organisations are smaller but still tally around 50-70 armoured vehicles per battlegroup.
This ‘back of envelope’ analysis suggests that although the size of Ukraine’s attacks in the south has increased from roughly combat teams to battlegroups, we are not yet seeing the full weight of Ukraine’s reserve being deployed. A Ukrainian corps fields approximately 4-5 brigades, each with 2-3 battlegroups. If Ukraine commits fully, we should expect to see a couple of hundred armoured vehicles (tanks, armoured personnel carriers and engineering vehicles) deployed on a relatively narrow frontage or across a width of about 20km. Based on this reasoning, we can assess that this week’s reporting indicates a steady escalation rather than a final commitment of Ukraine’s reserves to one axis of advance.
It does appear that near Orikhiv Ukraine has made a small ‘break in’ on the forward line of Russian trenches, known as the ‘Surovikin Line.’ Ukraine’s next step there appears to be flanking Robtyne to the east and looking at how to bypass that area’s strong defences. Next week, in this area we should expect to see more activity most likely Ukraine widening the break in point and preparing for the next step forwards. This will probably be slow work as Ukrainian soldiers push east and west along the Surovikin Line widening the gap so that there is room for a larger force to penetrate and assault the next line. A battlegroup needs kilometres of secure frontage to easily pass through a defensive line, then shake out into combat formation for its next attack; and at this time the breech is only about 1.5 kilometres wide.
Further, opportunities are developing near Bakhmut and Stariomaiorsk, both axes having potential to suddenly change and provide opportunities for Ukraine to advance. For instance, if the Ukrainians capture Klishchiivka, that will allow a rapid advance north-east 8-10 km to the road that supply’s Bakhmut protected by the ridgeline the village sits on. Even the threat of this manoeuvre could force the withdrawal of Russian forces from Bakhmut.
A point that brings us to this week’s key piece of analysis, although advances are being reported and the size of attacks has increased in the south near Orikhiv. We need to be careful and considered in our analysis because we are still yet to see a large enough operation to indicate Ukraine’s main effort. And; if we are finding it hard to predict where Ukraine’s main blow will fall, imagine what it is like for Russia’s field commanders. Perhaps, Ukraine has not yet decided where to commit its main offensive force preferring instead to keep weakening the Russian defences across the whole frontline and waiting to see how the situation develops.
Ukraine’s offensive may appear to be moving slowly and at this stage they are not gaining huge amounts of ground but is clear that they are setting the tempo of operations. Choosing when and where to fight, defeating Russian counter attacks and probably still able to choose where and when to commit their reserves. This week we may not have seen the ‘tipping point’ but we are getting closer and we can be more optimistic that offensive is not spent yet.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger
An example of Russian humour:
Ukraine is referred to as Country 404
Pro war humour is a weapon of hate.
There is nothing funny about it.
Like racist jokes targeting blacks or Maori or Jews, the underlyiing purpose of such humour and jokes is to dehumanise the targets of your hate.
To buy into this sort of humour is to excuse violent attacks and even genocide committed against the targets of these jokes.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/30/russias-imperial-arrogance-is-destroying-ukrainian-heritage/
Country-404: a reference to the internet’s “404 Page Not Found” error—is what pro-war Russians have dubbed Ukraine. The ghoulish joviality of this nickname is a startling representation of a broader insistence among Russian politicians and propagandists that Ukraine has no right to exist…..
https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/networks/radicalisation-awareness-network-ran/publications/far-right-extremists-use-humour-2021_en
Humour has become a central weapon of extremist movements to subvert open societies and to lower the threshold towards violence….
…As far-right extremists strategically merge with online cultures, their approach changes fundamentally. This trend has been especially facilitated by the so-called alt-right and has spread globally.
This predominantly online movement set new standards to rebrand extremist positions in an ironic guise, blurring the lines between mischief and potentially radicalising messaging. The result is a nihilistic form of humour that is directed against ethnic and sexual minorities and deemed to inspire violent fantasies — and eventually action….
Oh Yeah, I agree , like using the slur “orcs” (because Russians aren’t human)or “katsaps”, or firing “Bandera smoothies”, the Ukrainian self named version of molotov cocktails., referencing big time and current hero Bandera who killed thousands of jews and russians and Poles.”Rashists from Mordor” or” Kolorady” all great dehumanising terms used for not just Russian soldiers but all Russians
Yes, but if I was Ukrainian, I’d be happy to stop calling them “orcs” once they got the f#ck out of MY country.
You tell em Stan – the Putin Aplogists seem to think you should be cool with somone invading your country and massacring civilians.
Yeah, boo hoo hoo. Humour is a weapon of hate but cluster bombs and long range missiles are fine. Pat, the woke warrior of the war machine.
Ukraine is 404 thanks to your ilk, please can we just start firing nukes already. That’ll make it better, Pat O borris Johnson.
\“….cluster bombs and long range missiles are fine.” OFF WHITE
But only, if they are being fired by Russia.
From Wikipedia:
….On February 28, 2022, during the battle of Kharkiv, around 10:00 AM, the Russian Army fired Grad rockets into three different residential areas in Kharkiv.[2][3] Nine civilians died. Four people were killed when they left a shelter to get water and go shopping between curfews; a family of two parents and three children were burned alive in their car.[4] The locations hit were residential buildings and a playground,[5] dispersed between Industrialnyi and Shevchenkivskyi District. Explosions in the city were recorded as late as 2:23 PM.[2]
Investigations
Human Rights Watch
Human Rights Watch investigated the attack and concluded that the Russian forces used Smerch cluster munition rockets, which disperse dozens of submunitions or bomblets in the air.[5]
Not only are Russian cluster munitions OK with Off White. Off White pleads to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
“Ukraine is 404 thanks to your ilk, please can we just start firing nukes already.” OFF WHITE
Nuclear weapons are the quickest way of committing genocide.
There is no level of violence or atrocity that Off White will not support to achieve Russia’s imperial war aims.
Pro-war fanatics like Off White might support using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. I have always maintained that the Russian people would not tolerate it.
No matter how Putin huffs and puffs about using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Putin knows that there is a lamppost waiting for him in Russia with his name on it.
Well its coming up to 250,000 dead russian occupation soldiers Ivan.
Have you got Westmoreland doing your body counts?
Remember how he had killed the entire North- Vietnamese army 3 times over before the Tet offensive?
Excuse me if I don’t quite believe your wishful figures
Ben – Here is some very sad facts
– 150,000 Ukraine soldiers killed
– 700,000 Ukraine soldiers wounded
– 20 million Ukrainians displaced
– NATO is running out of ammo, hence cluster bombs
– Foreign Fighters are leaving due to no pay, witnessing war crimes…
Why is this war still going…Ukraine is getting bled dry
I can only assume the war goes on because Ukraine citizens want to remain free from Russian control.
Exactly – The Ukrainians are only fighting because they have (relatively) recent first-hand experience of what being occupied by Russia is actually like (i.e. a Russian dominated USSR pre-1991) and for the same reason that is why many of the Eastern European countries are so willing to help.
That’s a fantasy. Ukrainian and Russians have lived and bled together like brothers. We’re just seeing the product of a typical CIA “Khmer Rouge”/Shah Savak ethnic cleansing operation. Over 3 decades Ukraine the nation was hollowed out and radicalised in the same way. Hence 404.
Western imperialism runs on the big lie at every level. You have to be completely ignorant of history or a brainwashed turnip to not see the agency of evil when it keeps slapping its starred and striped phallus in everyone’s faces.
My bet is on your being the quiet weird guy at the office Xmas party standing alone in the corner with a Sprite.
I like how your comment perfectly encapsulates your capacity to contribute to basic geopolitical history.
And your ‘capacity to contribute to basic geopolitical history’ is encapsulated in your earlier ‘slapping its starred and striped phallus in everyone’s faces’ comment is it?
How lucky we all are to have you here with us . .
I like how ‘slapping its starred and striped phallus in everyone’s faces’ apparently encapsulates your own contribution to basic geopolitical history.
Very nuanced . .
And what is that “big western imperialist” lie?
That free speech, liberty and democracy is worth protecting?
Our entire culture is thick with lies. Every day when stuff goes wrong, people don’t fix things or come clean, it’s “what will we say about this”. To maintain control and power.
The big lie is that we’re all guilty fats cats exploiters sitting on the wealth of the world, and we are complicit with letting the uber elite run it into the ground so of course we deserve bayonets up the arse.
So of course, we embrace the “free speech liberty democracy” lie and tell ourselves everyone who despises and resists us for our “leaders” global rapine are the real bad guys.
Paul pompously dismisses James comment as making no contribution. But Paul’s claim to understanding of geopolitical history. Is undermined by Paul’s total gullibility in brainlessly parroting Kremlin pro-war propaganda. This shows that it is Paul not James that is completely ignorant of basic geopolitical history.
https://www.salon.com/2023/07/29/how-russian-colonialism-took-the-western-anti-imperialist-left-for-a-ride/
How Russian colonialism took the Western anti-imperialist Left for a ride
Blindness to Russian colonialism distorts Westerners’ view of the Ukraine war
By ALARIC DEARMENT
31/07/2023
…..Russia’s conquest of Siberia
Starting in the 1580s, included the enslavement of indigenous peoples whom it forced to pay tribute in the form of furs known as yasak on pain of death, resulting in starvation as people struggled to meet yasak quotas instead of feeding themselves in a system some historians have compared to Belgian King Leopold II’s enslavement of the Congo. Russian Cossack gangs raped and murdered while Orthodox missionaries stamped out native religions and alcoholism and smallpox decimated local populations.
Today, indigenous people in Siberia and the Russian Far East frequently live in poverty while Moscow strips their lands’ rich natural resources to line the pockets of oligarchs and fuel the glitz of cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, while their men disproportionately make up the cannon fodder that Russia sends to the Ukrainian front….
.
trevor – at what cost? There might not be an Ukraine left at this rate
And if they pick the alternative that Putin is offering?
Will there then be a Ukraine…
JKT – Yes, there will be a Ukraine
Fair point Trevor. There seems to be this notion that handing over the country to an invading aggressor should be a no brainer. Easy to say when it’s not your country
Wheel – Once Russia wins, which will happen, what then for Ukraine??
Russia is losing the war, looking good for Crimea beach party 2024.
Nathan my point is that it is easy for us to sit at the other end of the planet and say give up, hand over your country. Clearly a whole lot more Ukrainians don’t want the Russians there than do. Yes it’s at a terrible cost. They must think the alternative is worse
Citizens of Ukraine do not get a say in their government’s actions. The only say they got was at the ballot box, where they voted in Zelenskyy partly because he touted peaceful and better relations with Russia. Of course, elections are off the board now, till the war is over, but their recent history shows that that doesn’t matter anyway because Ukraine suffers from that all too common affliction of possessing politicians who tout false promises.
A O – Yes, I have heard this too…that half of Ukraine wants to be Russia, the other wants to be Ukraine…
Well, to be fair, politicians telling porkies to win elections and then doing as they please thereafter, is unfortunately, hardly unique to Ukraine.
So Putins answer is to kill them? He doesn’t appear to be trying to liberate anyone
He isn’t. But you, Wheel seem to lack the cynicism to see through the bullshit we are being fed. Our side is not innocent. Whichever side wins, I fear that nobody will be truly ‘liberated’.
Why? Because I don’t think it’s so easy to say just give up your country to an invader. Easy to say from here
Well, he tried.
He only believed that Putin would invade when the Russians tanks arrived at the gates of Kiev, remember?
We all sat watching in disbelief as the build up happened and Ukrainian officials declaring that there was no threat of invasion.
That was what I saw on my TV….
He didn’t try anything peaceful. He did inflame relations between the two countries even more, however, thanks to the many anti-Russian initiatives he passed, culminating in the 100,000+ Ukrainian troop build up on the Donbass border that prompted Russia’s reaction and the conflict we now have.
He was negotiating with Putin even after 24 February 2022.
What was that all about then. An eye blind by Ukraine while they were leading the Russian army into a trap?? For real.
Yes, they were in negotiation, and it looked promising until it was curtailed by Boris Johnson. Zelenskyy, will not bite the hand that feeds him, his country be damned! But again, we must not forget the huge Ukrainian build up on the Donbass border that had the Donbass governments appealing to Russia for help that then led to the tragedy we have now. And then there’s the two+ years in power that Zelenskyy spent cozying up to the West rather than doing what he was elected to do. The people of Ukraine have been shafted while their elected leader is now a mega millionaire – makes you wonder.
” The only say they got was at the ballot box, where they voted in Zelenskyy partly because he touted peaceful and better relations with Russia.”
Check out Scott Ritter’s doco Agent Zelensky. It can be viewed on Rumble seems to have been deplatformed on YouTube. You will see Zelensky smirking as Putin signs the Minsk Peace agreement.
I do not understand how many people just do not grasp that very simple fact Trevor
And Russia is losing no one Ivan?
Princess Di must be turning in her grave watching these degenerates trample on her life’s work on children and eliminating cluster munitions. And people like the black eyed homicidal maniac Blinken are doing world tours to promote this death cult and the ruining of the world. Ukraine should put on their big boy pants, admit they were wrong, replace the government and accept the generous peace plan, before their Western masters kill everyone.
Started off poorly with the Princess Di comment and then downhill from there . .
Do you have an opinion on the matters or do you just go on the comments section to whinge like a child
Not sure – I will check with Princess Di and get back to you.
This comment is an insult to kids and will be retracted, I stand and withdraw the statement
Seems Princess Di is still very much dead and in fact not active in any way within or without her grave.
Whoever has been feeding you false hope of a Second Coming of Di has been doing you a disservice Mr Woke.
The fog of war is real. I have no real idea what is going on, but I’m pretty sure that Ukraine isn’t winning bigly.
“I’m pretty sure that Ukraine isn’t winning bigly.” NITRIUM
But it is winning.
Ukrainians will never cease resisting.
The end result for Russia is inevitable, ignoble defeat.
Ukrainians can “resist” as much as they like but reality says when Ukraine in forcibly conscripting people to be cannon fodder by rounding them up from the streets then logic suggests Pat is wrong yet again. The question is im man enough to own up if im wrong, but is Pat?
We are all a long way away from it all here, Pat.
Your optimism is refreshing..
The only fog is in your head if you think Ukraine isn’t winning ‘bigly’ . .
The amount of occupied territory held by Russia is shrinking steadily. A lot of Russian military equipment in use is decades old and the soldiers are by and large are poorly trained. Pat is on the right track but Russia’s demise in Ukraine will take time and continued Western support. A great point was made earlier that it is the countries previously occupied by Russia that are staunchest in not wanting Russia to occupy them ever again. If Russia had been good occupiers in the past and Ukrainians thought Russian occupation would improve their lives then surely they would have been welcomed by cheering crowds and showered with flowers like the Russian propagandists predicted. That was not the case and Ukraine have the will to throw out the Russians.
That was my comment and I thank you for your appreciation . .
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Of course, the other argument is, Ukranazi haven’t breeched one of the defensive lines of the Russian Federation. Not one. That these ‘wins’ are all in the grey zone and so; the psychotic leadership of the Kiev Banderites are resorting to provocations against Moscow etc with nuisance drones to provoke and utilize the decrepit NATO articles into the greater war-for-democracy in a country under martial law, with no elections and no free press and no opposition parties – with crazy Victoria NULAND to somehow lead the charge.
That The Russian Army is basically goading these last poor souls dragged off the streets of Ukraine by the Nazi press gangs; goading their last gasp in the meat-grinder in futile sacrifice! Sacrificed by the corrupt BIDEN/UK/EU and NATO nazi regime. Drawn into the final attrition before the real Russian advance begins.
Time will tell.
Won’t it.
Yeah, the people of Ukraine embraced the invaders (sorry I meant the saviours…) when they arrived at the gates to Kiev on 24 February 2022, just like Putin predicted!! Yeah, right..
Maybe Putin miscalculated the spirit of Ukrainians?
Correct Ukraine have not breached one defence line of Russia. They have breached multiple forward defence lines and recently secondary and intermediate defence lines have been breached both east and west of Robytene. What real Russian advance? Russia are very low on reserves and are struggling for manpower and equipment.
I called it weeks ago, nothing has changed. The offensive is a ruinous failure. The Russians are sitting tight bleeding Ukraine and the West dry. Once you get past the propaganda and bullshit regardless of your position you will recognise what the offensive is, a debacle.
Hey Nick, maybe you are right, maybe the Ukrainian offensive is a debacle and a failure.
But so what?
The Tet Offensive was a debacle and failure for the Vietnamese and a victory for the US.
But it didn’t change the final outcome of the Vietnam war.
Why? Because the Vietnamese refused to allow their country to be subjugated to US colonialism and refused to stop fighting. The same in Ukraine.
It is inescapable, Russia will inevitably be driven back to its internationally recognised borders and out of Ukraine, including out of Crimea.
What the Russians do after that is up to them. Dmitry Medvedev who currently heads the Russian government Security Council has threatened to use nuclear weapons. The Russian people won’t tolerate the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, and Medvedev knows it. Just as Nixon knew the American people wouldn’t tolerate him using nuclear weapons against Vietnam.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/vietnam-war-documentary-nixon-nuclear-weapons-pbs#:~:text=He%20was%20never%20going%20to,force%20them%20to%20the%20table.%E2%80%9D
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