The NZ Herald Poll of Polls keeps pointing to a Labour led minority Government with supply and confidence from the Māori Party.
This remarkable turn of events where the Māori Party could have this position of obligation and influence is multifaceted.
The first is demographics. The Māori electorate is younger and there are more Millenial and Gen X voters than Boomers this election.
The second is a welcoming and embracing online social media culture that has built true online community and allows for strong promotion of strategic voting.
The third is that the more reactionary the Right get, the more previous non voting Māori voters are engaging as a counter to that level of race baiting.
What could take the Māori Party to a new level of support is what the bottom lines they will demand of Labour in return for Supply and Confidence. If those 3 bottom lines are broad based policy that every struggling Kiwi would want, the Māori Party could gain a large influx of non Māori voters.
The economy is hurting and GST off food bills would attract huge support from many voters.
If the Māori Party push for policy that benefits all as the price of their Supply and Confidence vote and then moves to the cross benches, they will be building legacy and will set themselves up for a true political partnership.
There is everything to win and lose this election.
First published on Waatea News.
TPM are well aware of the age bubble re young Māori numbers…
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/maori-population-estimates-at-30-june-2022/
Get ’em enrolled, get ’em on the Māori roll, and importantly–get ’em voting! At Kaitaia market every Sat an Electoral Commission stand has been doing good business. The guy in charge has full moko and has been around a bit, he even gets paid too. It is a great market with Christians alongside Cannabis oil sellers.
Martyn – Why? The Maori Party will be doing well if they get back into Parliament.
Based on what Nathan?
Waititi will get back in and thus TPM gets in. The question is how many get back in with him.
And even if they are a radical party they are no more radical than ACT.
Gus – Based on this https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/next-new-zealand-general-election-6227335
Based on a Gamble?
What’s best for NZ is TPM form part of a coalition. Because a Nact government will finish off NZ.
Based on what’s best for New Zealand.
Radical, you mean much fairer and caring about those on the margins. Thank goodness, I am a 73 year old pakeha, a previous Greens voter, I have joined Te Pati Maori and I am absolutely convinced they will have more MPs in parliament this time round. ACT is frankly terrifying. National – need to dump Luxon he just doesn’t cut it. And I haven’t voted Labour since the mid eighties, a founding member of New Labour, then the Alliance and then then the Greens.
“There is everything to win and lose this election”
I’m not sure any of the available options represent a “win”, but if a LINO-Rainbow Party-TMP government is elected we do stand to lose plenty. Namely, free speech and the principle of one person = one vote.
Well put.
Yawn
You might even say Stephen, Yawn+Yunctilious+ll
As a former Act voter, I am entirely comfortable with the votes of Act voters being worth less.
The best thing I can imagine coming from a coalition of LAB./GRN./M.P. is that it could totally discredit both major political parties. They are incapable of being much different from the Tories, and neither side are popular.
It might end up like the disastrous government in Germany at present. The result of that, together with the weakness of the C.D.U. conservatives, is that Sahra Wagenknecht (Left Party) and Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany) now can start to mount a serious challenge to the two major parties (along the lines of recent Italian elections).
The Roy Morgan poll for June is just out.
National/Act on 45%
Labour/Green on 40%
The Maori Part up to a solid 7%
LGM could form a government. God help us.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9292-nz-national-voting-intention-june-2023
Many voters may call for GST of food but if they think food would drop by 15 percent over night they will be sadly wrong .It is done in Australia but causes a great deal of cost and the only winners are accountants and public servants. It will be like brexit in the UK a great idea followed by huge regret It is interesting that the 2 Parties calling for the move are not business friendly and live in a dream world
you know trev… one thing i have not ever heard of, is ozzies complaining and trying to put GST on food in Oz. no one screaming from the rooftops, “we need GST on food!”. no one in Australia is pointing at NZ and saying, “see! thats how you do it!”. except maybe those lunatics at SkyNews, they might, but then they howl at the moon so who cares.
It’s hard to believe New Zealanders will vote to end universal suffrage.
It’s hard to believe New Zealanders will place their future with people who have no idea how to manage an economy.
You are sounding scared Bob. I thought you were so certain National and ACT were going to win ?
Definitely scared for New Zealanders it would be disastrous.
For me personally I can manage my way through the mayhem.
Your right Bob .In the figures today we are 5 billion shy on expected tax take .The local,24hr medical centre had to close for 4 hrs due to being overwhelmed . The wheels are falling off but hopefully the ship will stay afloat for 15 more weeks
So, in 15 more weeks time ED and medical centers around the country will be clear and I can rock on up and be seen instantly? Please say no, it will take time to undo the mess we have because then I can tell you it only took Nact 9 years to get us to the state we’re in now.
Well you had 9 years of mayhem under National yet still come across as entitled.
Who’s too scared to publish comments? What a loser.
Sadly it’s not really that hard Bob.
If the last few years have taught us anything it’s that NZers, generally speaking, are a very apathetic bunch with no great desire to see themselves or the country do better than piss poor and seem quite fine with the current shit show. The politicians know this that’s why they have no oozing the arrogance, and in some cases blatant self seeking greed, they do.
Thanks PB.
It’s amazing isn’t it how people can still support this dreadful Labour Government.
Actually you are incorrect in everything you say. We learnt a tragic lesson in the 9 years leading up to Labours reign. Just ask the teachers and the nurses. Their net worth was so undervalued by National it’s taken Labour a record 4 billion to bring them up to today’s income standards. The politicians of those 9 years were so arrogant that when they were booted out they all deserted the sinking ship. They could no longer suck kiwis dry so went elsewhere for their greed fueled self interest. Chow Chow!
Yes Peter Barry many New Zealanders are not only apathetic but also politically naive.
And particular people politically immature. Incredible to think how very naive people are to think the horrendous National party is a viable alternative given their appalling history.
Bob what in hell makes you think National will be any different? By most metrics you probably find important our economy has not done badly. Has the gap between the haves and have nots grown? Absolutely! Would National do anything about that? Absolutely not. All of the fat cats and corporations that have done very well and that’s all National are interested in. The farmers despite all the bs hand ringing got off with some tax deductible ute tax while having a few hundred million sunk it to eradicating a virus that some farmers are guilty of spreading. It’s business as usual.
Wheel, you lost me at “Bob what in hell makes you think “?
It’s all the Maori bashing Neihana its counterintuitive if our Māori people vote strategically, we can have the best of both worlds. I hope that doesn’t upset you too much if so, too bad suck it up mate.
The question is do they want to participate in this colonial system. You obviously are closer to the Maori voter than I am so will they vote .Many did not take part in the census or line up for vaccinations for them and their children.
It occurred to me that present economists have much in common with Rimmer* from Red Dwarf. They concoct great patterns and beautifully present their theories at which they spend all their time, that have fatal flaws. They don’t pay attention to knowing the real stuff that is needed for good outcomes for all the mass of us, but are the great western fakirs of our era; not dedicating their lives to God and spirituality but to Mammon and machiavellian-type worship, being sly (having or showing a cunning and deceitful nature). We should be aware that they are the power behind our free market experience that is stripping us of all our resources both physical and ethereal.
I think today’s economists should be called rimmernomists to honour this great character from Red Dwarf who epitomises today’s semi-substantial, basically incorporeal wealth-obsessed incomers.
*Report on Rimmer’s performance: https://www.quintusteal.com/study.htm
…The first week of study, he would always devote to the construction of a revision timetable. Weeks of patient effort would be spent planning, designing and creating a revision schedule which, when finished, were minor works of art.
Every hour of every day was subdivided into different study periods, each labelled in his lovely, tiny copperplate hand; then painted over in watercolours, a different colour for each subject, the colours gradually becoming bolder and more urgent shades as the exam time approached. The effect was as if a myriad tiny rainbows had splintered and sprinkled across the poster-sized sheet of creamwove card.
The only problem was this: because the timetables often took seven or eight weeks, and sometimes more, to complete, by the time Rimmer had finished them the exam was almost on him. He’d then have to cram three months of astronavigation revision into a single week…
NZ has 15 weeks before we put our marks in the Big Test. How are we getting on with our plans for asserting our ideas sufficiently robustly before The Great Election in October? Another failure of our expectations it may be, but at least we should know that we have embraced the best contract for all citizens that is on offer.
And ‘Never Mind the Quality, Feel the Width’. That tv presentation about two tailors one Jewish and one Irish Catholic, 60-70s, got a disparaging review which said it was outdated farce because it played on ethnic stereotypes. I reckon it’s still relevant today. Don’t let’s expect too much, go for the offering that is best for us, being prepared to patch and darn the holes later where the fabric’s thin!
We need to get GST off anything, it is such a regressive tax, hits the poorest the most, bring in a Financial Transactions tax, bring in a wealth tax, bring in capital gains, that would cover GST.
I hope TPM get a seat or two in Parliament.
They have been on the outer for too long.
Let them have responsibility in power, see what unfolds.
They might just surprise everyone.
If it doesn’t work out for them I am sure they will learn from the experience.
Being in power brings a lot of pressure on leaders. It’s easy to be a critic when you are on the side lines and not much responsibility.
It’s more intense when you are busy with demanding portfolios and fickle people to manage. Plus pissy mainstream media.
People really start being critiqued.
That’s life if you want power.
TPM could be interesting with responsibilities to work with. See how it unfolds for them.
We could be heading into an exciting new era in politics.