Why the Chippy vs Luxon TV Debates will be so important this election

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With the polls on a knife edge, I believe the TV debates between Chippy and Luxon will be more important than ever.

First let’s acknowledge the awkwardness of debates where it is just the two leaders of the 2 big parties. While many of the networks will attempt debates with all the Leaders, it’s never in National or Labour’s interests to appear on those debates so they are far and few in between.

There will be set debates between the two and they usually attract enormous audiences.

With the don’t know at 15% of the electorate, there is everything to fight for in these debates.

Luxon has the most to win and Chippy has the most to lose and they should be in debate prep now, but my guess is neither Party have their Election Policies realised yet limiting their debate training potential.

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In the Blue Corner:

Luxon seems to agree to anything anyone asks him which requires him doing a u-turn 24 hours later. This is sold as ‘endearing’ because he’s ‘not a politician’. To everyone else it looks confused and incompetent and you fret a bit that he was running Air NZ while you were flying on it once.

But because the bar is so low for Luxon, if he actually dazzles during the debates, it could be the winner of the election. There have been times when he has actually sounded passionate and invested in NZ progressing, unfortunately he’s only ever sounded that way  when he wants to cut benefits from disabled teenagers on welfare, military boot camps for kids and putting ankle bracelets on 10 year olds.

Chris seems to take ‘spare the rod, spoil the child’ literally.

But if he can surprise NZ with a passionate moment, he can turn a moment into a defining election event.

So, Luxon is fighting for his political career, because he is goneburger if he doesn’t beat Labour this year. National tolerate many things, a rigged capitalism for their mates, obscene profits for Banks, sexual attraction towards Landlords and a fetish for punishment, but they WILL NOT tolerate losers.

In the Red Corner:

Cut beyond the Chippy from the Hutt routine and look at Chris Hipkins for the cold hearted political killer that he is.

Over the years of watching him and talking to him I think there are 3 sides to Chippy.

There is the behind the scenes interaction and management style with his staff and colleagues that is actually almost magical. He is incredibly kind and deferential to all his colleagues and is a leader who draws out the best from his people and empowers them to step up and perform rather than push and dictate to. Expect a phenomenal loyalty to him from the Caucus.

Then there is the Chippy who loves sausage rolls, Chippy from the Hutt, spread your legs, sausage roll loving, dorky competence, affable and lover of sausage rolls Chris Hipkins who you trust with your best interests at heart.

And then there is the Political Assassin Chris Hipkins who is the person the Party gets to go out and do political knee-capping. He has been the wielder of Labour’s sword many times because beyond the publicly affable and privately differential, Chris is a hard hitting pocket battleship.

The difference between Chippy and Jacinda, is Chippy will throw a punch.

 

Who will win?:

Luxon has a chance, and in an election this close, it could be the magical moment that propels National into the lead.

So you can’t rule it out and that’s what makes the Debates so fascinating.

However.

Chris Hipkins is a high ranking Left Wing Jedi Knight. He’s Luke Skywalker, Harry Potter and a fully automatic machine gun all rolled into one. He will eviscerate Luxon with a level of detail that sounds spookily like Helen Clarke with the knockout wit power of David Lange while authentically connecting to the middle emotionally like Jacinda.

Chippy ain’t no chump and if National walk into this trying to debate Chris Hipkins, they will lose. Luxon’s only chance is to talk to the audience and connect with them emotionally NOT debate with Hipkins because he will get whipped.

Luxon has never been punched in the face and he has a political glass jaw, if Chippy unleashes, he will go down in the first round and that will resonate with the huge viewing audience.

 

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61 COMMENTS

  1. This is nonsense.
    Chris Hipkins, by doing an Ardern and promising not to introduce any wealth tax or capital gains tax, has betrayed Labour voters.
    No one should vote Labour while Hipkins remains its leader.
    Vote Greens, vote Te Pāti Māori, vote NZ First, vote TOP. Anyone but Labour.

    • I’m voting ACT for the first time in my life. It’s the only political party that accepts reality, strives for common sense and doesn’t have its head in the clouds.

    • No one should vote Hipkins he’s turning out to be a dishonest, plus he’s a career politician in it for himself.
      What does he believe in?

      • No one should ever vote Seymour, he’s a career politician and no one should ever vote Luxon he’s a CEO of an air line company, both dishonest and what does he know about the world or the poor?

    • JT No Greens either; they’re the originators of divisive identity politics and the shocking gender ID scenarios which are harming school children. Better that the Greens vanish.

  2. It will be interesting to see if National’s PR people have the sense to try and keep Luxon away from trying to engage in debates. This is the only sensible move given his complete lack of any human personality, but he’s arrogant enough to override them.

  3. “Gonzo” Bradbury well on form here, the tory trolls will love this post! But, butt…Layybah…Layybah…Laybaah!!
    The country is doomed–only Baldrick religious fruit cake can save us–Layybah!!

  4. Yes ..excellent analysis…

    Luxon flounders and founders as soon as the pressure goes on and he gets the ‘please explain yourself better’ adjunct to a question that he’s been fudging the answer to. Seymour is the same.

    He’s a choker and you cannot teach people to be quick on their feet. He’s uncoachable and it’s not covered anywhere in any of his ‘How To Win Friends and Influence People’ books lining his bookshelf . So he’s lost …all at sea and always deferring to the “and i’m telling you” …blah blah blah line…which tells you nothing other than the fact that he’s got nothing.

    When it comes to the pointy end of politics .You’ve either got it, or you haven’t, and Luxon doesn’t know who he is or even what the fuck he is doing in politics …and so hasn’t got it !! Rudderless…. Look at what he believes in. That tells you a lot!!

    They are throwing colossal amounts of money at him … huge amounts… trying to con people with propaganda about him and yet he still can’t break out past the margin of era in the polls and is well behind in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

    He would make a pathetic Prime Minister and the majority of people know that.

  5. Chippy will be asked about Labour’s many failures, and why they should get another three years to fail further.

    • I’ve given my electorate vote to Labour every election since MMP. But no more, not after the renunciation of wealth tax.
      I won’t vote Labour again as long as Treacherous Chippy is leader.
      Greens, Te Pāti Māori, NZ First, TOP … anyone but Labour.

      • Leadership change in the wings for labour?
        Little can take the helm and then hand over to someone more suited with three weeks to go to election day.
        Labour is searching for a new leader with ideas, anyone out there…..? Grant, David.. Mahuta…. Kiri…. anyone?

        Maybe there is hope for you, John Trezise!

    • And Lex Luther will respond with, ” let’s have a tax cut, that will fix everything “!

        • He may well do but even Lex Luther’s non popularity is tanking so no, you are completely wrong, again. Chippy is still above Luther albeit with all the negative right wing media sucking from Nationals war chest.

    • extending the brightline test and removing interest deductability… healthy homes initiatives… those failures? not a lot but luxton tissues will wipe out another generation together with his property fetishists. the cost of shelter is the bane of our society and at least Labour have paid lip service to it.

  6. Meh. Hipkins sold us all out yesterday with his BAU no taxes policy. He deserves to go. Vote Hipkins for farmers, Luxon for banks. If you’re a kiwi working class person or less, the message is super clear – NO ONE CARES, move along. Masters of the universe are united. Arseholes.

  7. Chippie is no executioner. It requires repeated serious offending by any cabinet member to get stood down as has been often seen with the likes of Wood and Nash.
    Jenna Lynch has called Chippy “cowardly” for dropping CGT and wealth tax options. He’ll drop anything to save votes as we’ve often seen with these and all the other policy bonfires.
    He’s weak and incompetent as seen on his day one parliamentary vote count fiasco.
    Luxon will roast him in a debate. He’s got limitless ammunition. Wait and watch. Chippie will be a stuttering mess.

  8. Covid…Covid…Covid
    This the reasons that Chippy will give for the state of the country, no point debating if we already know Labours excuse for everything they haven’t fixed, made better and of course will be the reason for their broken promises.

  9. Maybe Act & Labour can replay 1984-1989 all over again!
    A Makeover! Or just replay 1989 to 1991 again?

    Whatever they come up with, it won’t be what NZ needs.

  10. Watching a debate between such weak candidates will be unbearable. I thought Anthony Albanese vs. Scott Morrison was totally unwatchable, and although they are also weak candidates, neither are as poor as Chippy/Luxo.

    If this weren’t a rigged political system, these debates might have been between a Labour prime minister called Carole Anderton (succeeding a former P.M. called Jim Anderton), and a certain Muldoonite leader of the Tories called Winston Peters (perhaps a former three term Prime Minister). Now that’s a debate that might actually be worth watching.

  11. Depends who the moderator is ??

    If it’s Mike Hosking or Jack Tame then we might see a worth while debate. If it’s one of the Break fast crew, then it will probably be a waste if time and not change the poll s at all.

  12. With both groups at the bottom of popularity with their voter base. It’s probably a good time for some militancy from the real lefties to retake the party.

    Neoliberalism needs to be denounced and put to the sword as well of many within the party and rank & file cause they’re sellouts.

    Then a new constitution to jettison the shite policy and gatekeeping protections.

    And then a regime change all at the same time!

    That shouldn’t take too long when they’re at 27% or worse!

    The opposition will be probably doing the same thing!

  13. Martyn – Labour, especially Chris Hipkins, destroyed the Wealth Tax, and Capital Gains Tax…scoundrels’, mongrels’…direct enemy of 80% to 85% of NZers…vote them out ASAP

    • @ nathan. I hope you’re merely wrong and not a Kiwi neo-liberal criminal waiting for a prison cell.

      • Replaced by a Commissioner for Vulnerable Children, freedom of speech, adherence to the Bill of Rights, no special privileges for gender extremists, and if Winston Peters leads, revisiting the pernicious gender ideology which is wrongly and dishonestly being taught as a science as part of the school curriculum.

  14. Its time for some militancy to remove these cucks! Once and for all. MPs and Constitutional reform within, gatekeepers and moronic followers of neoliberalism. They’ll be at 27% in the next poll so with little membership opposition. It’s probably the right time to roll the party.

  15. Here here Grant I couldn’t have said it any better, Luxon is not a politician despite all the rants by some of the bias whiners on this site. Yes, he ran Air NZ but there’s a big difference between an airline and a country. When he talks about powering up, he sounds like he is talking about an airplane. And as for those selfish ones on this site who are prepared to turn a blind eye to him (Luxon) being so unsuitable to lead our country through times of turmoil it says a lot about them. To me it says they just care about them fucken selves not the rest of the many New Zealanders who are struggling. Every time National are in power inequalities rise.

    • Inequality under this Labour Government is at its highest in our history?
      Where are you living covid is pa?

      • When Labour came to power there were 600 people living in cars in just one park in South Auckland plus numerous other locations. National was turning a blind eye whilst allowing all sorts of people to buy up houses in our country and profiteer off the back of a rampant property market. Thus lining the pockets of their real estate agent mates , lawyers and accountants.
        Luxon has benefitted hugely from those corrupt practices . In our area alone there was a guy who owned 22 houses, (quite a few sat empty), who lived in Bejing and had an agent buying on his behalf.. the classic ghost house syndrome …while he then clipped the ticket on them making $100,000 a year tax free.

        National then sold off large numbers of state houses only to compound the problem.

        That is just one problem that Labour has been tasked with sorting out . That is huge in itself.
        But wait…there’s more …National ramped up immigration significantly without any idea of how they were going to deal with all these people and their extended families when they get sick and at the same time cut funding to the hospitals on a dollar per person basis. Throw an epidemic into the mix, (that National had not even considered might happen), and you’ve got a clusterfuck of massive proportions.
        That’s 10 years to sort that mess out.

        But wait …there’s more… Bill English spent a fortune building a network of concrete irrigation canals for the farmers across the South Island but forgot to look at future climate conditions. Already the rivers are drying up as the last vestiges of life are drained out of them . Drive around the South Island and you’ll see many bony dry river beds where the waters used to flow freely…not any more .That’s a death knell in the making right there.
        There are many more examples. National were, and still are, such hopeless short sighted , short term thinkers. Basically, let’s not sugar coat this, a little bit dumb really.
        Their continuous stupidity cannot let you draw any other conclusion!

        • The dry rivers in the South Island have been that way for years,the main flow is below the surface,underground.
          National and Act are forward thinking while Labour don’t do anything,hamstrung by a talentless pool of MPs.
          We have 6 years of proof.

          • Bullshit Bob, what would you know about the South Island rivers, you live close to Morgans son and he’s no where near. You’re just full of shit, the last 6 years is proof of that.National are in the 80s just like you Bob, you probably own a brown suit.

            • Gareth Morgan’s son has property in the South Island?
              To know about rivers in the South Island doesn’t mean you have to live in the South Island anyway that you have to live in England to know about the Thames.
              Your geological knowledge is wanting.
              Don’t have a brown suit but do have a few of the old pinstripe jobs.

  16. it might matter if anyone cared we are all squatting in our trenches and contrary positions are rejected with no thought…’cuz moi team’

  17. The implosion from 2017 to date is spectacular! How is that even possible, when they had Jacinda Ardern, the most popular PM ever (in the USA) – competently running her country (down) by way of the most transparent, most honest govt ever! It’s hard to fathom what happened to Labour, isn’t it? Anyway, I better catch Te Huia…gotta get to Hamilton by tomorrow.

    • What happened? Labour were exposed by their MP’s,a group of people bereft of any ideas.
      Made promises they had no idea how to deliver.
      Fortunately Luxon is not a career politician like Chippy who has no business acumen he just plays for votes,which he’s making a mess of.
      Luxon will be a breath of fresh air,he will deliver for all New Zealanders not like Labour who have made the poor more poor and the wealthy more wealthy.

      • The Romeo and Juliet of spewing their vile on TDB. 9 years of racism, underfunding and elitism by National and the above two Muppets are like the leaders of Gloriavale.
        Anyway I better catch Bob and Kraut s syphilis, handed down to them by their threesome bro Jamie Lee Ross.

      • Soooo looking forward to TPM fucking up your drilling ,fracking, cracking, neoliberal global ending, wealthiest crashing spectacularly. Clearly Luther and Rimmer have no social morals whatsoever. They promote a low wage economy and will make the poor so much poorer and create record levels of mental health issues. Expect undertaking taking off as a career should Natct win.Remember they created homelessness, broken health and education and in 2013 a record net migration of kiwis to Australia .
        Luxon is so stale, hand picked by a ponytail pulling fettish PM to complete the destruction Key started.
        Luxon promises tax cuts that will deliver him $18,000 a year but the poorest $104 a year.
        At least Hipkins has real life polical acumen and unlike Luther he doesn’t pay for votes. Luxon has already proven to be an embarrassment. Businesses acumen means nothing when you are a possum in the headlights. Like you Bob he’s a novice.

      • bahahahahahahahaha!

        The Blobby and Krauty duet sung to you by the sound of Sonny and Cher’s “I got you babe” “copyright infringement pending, National party to pay your fine”.

        Bhahahahahaha

  18. Chris Hipkins is in a position to revolutionise AO/NZ. Lets see of he’s a Lange or a Kirk or a jonky. Or is he a mike moore or a helen clark.
    Our current politics is a criminal enterprise managed by the crooks who most benefited from stealing farmer money before it made its way back to the farmers who delivered the goods so to speak.
    That’s why 14 multi-billionaires and 3118 multi-millionaires with individual wealth in excess of $50 million each. How else do we pay the four foreign owned banks $180.00 a second in net profits? Tourism?

  19. They should call it TV1 Toastmasters. Labour is toast so may as well have an appropriate theme.

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