Latest Internal Poll: Labour up, Greens plunge & Māori Party Kingmakers

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Good to see Newshub Nation catching up with a 3 year old TDB talking point regarding the rise of ACT.

Comrades, you can read it here first on The Daily Blog or wait 3 years for a NZ on Air taxpayer funded current affairs show to pick it up 3 years later.

Latest internal Talbot poll is out and makes for fascinating reading:

LABOUR – 36%

NATIONAL – 35%

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ACT – 11%

GREENS – 7%

Maori Party are kingmakers and most interestingly, Chippy has gone up 6point to 38% preferred PM against Luxon dropping down to 23%.

What is infuriating Right Wing strategists is that no matter the Labour Party fuck ups and lack of real progress on the big issues is that Labour’s vote is holding and solidifying.

The problem for National is the more extreme ACT gets with their subhuman and Mogadishu comments (alongside their radioactive Treaty referendum and extreme amputation of the State) the more it scares the bejesus out of the middle.

Those middle voters see the extremism of an ACT/National Government and have picked sides with Labour so no matter how Labour MPs fuck up, the middle voter is voting Labour because an ACT/National Government is simply too extreme for serious contemplation.

The polarisation on the right is an existential crisis to National and it will continue to be so as Green Party middle class woke identity politics activists keep handing ACT culture war ammunition.

This election the power is in the cross benches.

NZF, TOP, the Māori Party and now ACT have all stated they will sit on the cross benches rather than join a Government.

In NZ, all a Party needs to form the Government is a segment to the Governor General that the can get a majority vote for their budget.

That’s it.

Previously with MMP most smaller parties become part of the Government and get tripped up by the collective responsibility obligations of Cabinet and tend to get blamed for decisions while gaining little in wins.

What we are seeing this election is smaller parties choosing the cross benches and instead off being bound by majority decisions, will wait for the legislation to come to them and then cherry pick what they want.

We haven’t seen that type of MMP before, but it’s very much how MMP works overseas.

Take the example of a Labour led minority Government with supply and confidence with the Māori Party.

The Māori Party would demand concessions from the Labour led minority Government in exchange for their supply and confidence vote and then move to the cross benches on all other policy.

If the Māori Party make demands on legislation that the Labour led minority Government felt was too extreme, that leaves the Labour led minority Government to go to National to get the votes instead, so there is a built in hand break to stop policy that is too extreme.

Seeing as Labour and National vote together 70% of the time, this isn’t much of an issue.

NZers have had a very FPP MMP for 30 years, this election looks to splinter the MMP spectrum and deliver us a very different style of democracy.

I think that would be a far better outcome.

 

 

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42 COMMENTS

  1. And Luxon’s ‘tough on crime’ announcements this afternoon won’t help him.

    He’s expecting the police to do a lot more with probably fewer police (judging by Nats past record); he rubbishes Labour’s reduced prison population so a lot more criminals will go into the Uni for Crims; and is still talking about military academies for ram-raiders etc. Hasn’t anyone told him the the military are fast losing personnel because of their non-military duties ever since Covid and MIQ’s? That exodus will only be made much worse if the military are now forced to be jailers.

    Never will (land)Lord Luxon admit that increasing poverty is the real problem – he’s only interested in the greedy, not the needy.

    Does this egghead, wannabe PM never learn?

    • Can you please send a photo of yourself so we can see if you’re an egghead or another funny shape? Childish lefties love mocking physical features. Shall we start with Blobbertson and the little freckled Chipmunk?

      • What’s the go here? Depending on where the chips fall post election I think Labour could build a billion dollar prison and relax gun laws. Soften Genetic engineering laws maybe even penalise false rape allegations the same as rape. But we ain’t getting rid of the treaty and we ain’t getting rid of the human rights Commission etc. And the Greens can think again about there more suicidal tendencies. Like what ever Krautus. Twirl your moustache harder boy.

  2. So. Let’s talk about what a Hung parliament will look like??

    Maybe a minority government gets cobbled together, left or right, maybe.

    Then it collapses.

    Then another election! Woo Hoo!

    Then WWIII.

    So. What was that song that Prince wrote? Something about 1999!?

    Amene.

    • I guess you must of skim read the bit in the article that explained how minority governments work in MMP electoral cycles. Perhaps if you read the article again?

      • Ok wise one. Tell me that they don’t, haven’t fallen apart before??

        Ask Winston Peters!

        • Stop being so lazy, why don’t you give me a list of all the countries that have had their democracies fall to pieces because of hung parliaments and proportional representation. Feel free to ask Winnie.

  3. Te Pati Maori are not kingmakers. They can’t go right.

    They are part of the Labour/Green/Te Pati Maori bloc, although Te Pati Maori may choose to sit outside the coalition, just like the Greens did in 2017 to 2020.

    The right bloc is National/Act and potentially NZ First. Te Pati Maori is not part of it, with both Te Pati Maori and National ruling out any arrangements between them.

    • They are in the sense that if both blocks need them they can decide between a Labour-Green govenment or a hung parilament, same with NZ First for National-ACT since they ruled out working with Labour… If you think kingmaker strictly means being able to choose between both sides then TOP are the only ones who would fit that definition

  4. Thrilled to see the Green Party slipping.
    Love to see them below 5%.
    They are no longer an environmental party but rather a rag tag bunch of opportunists searching for a well paid job.A job where you don’t work you don’t do anything.
    Ok Boomer.

    • Thank you for giving everyone their daily dose of stupid. Quick question, how do you contain so much stupid in one human form? It must just want to seep out of you like pus from a gangrenous wound.

      • You actually have a typical, talk down to people , lefty superiority complex tone to your replies there Stand….the pattern starts with a polite thank you , and as per usual ends in a barrage of abuse towards a fellow commentator…..A usual, your welcome, is standard reply as well….perhaps some counselling might be in order , or drink Speights bud to chill out..

  5. Meh. Preferred PM poll is always extremely noisy and almost always heavily favours the incumbent (since any potential new PM is an unknown). I have said for over a year now that this election is National’s to lose after the debacle that was Labour. If National somehow mess this winning hand up, it’s all on them. National has a Full House, and Labour has at best a Pair.

  6. “The problem for National is the more extreme ACT gets with their subhuman and Mogadishu comments (alongside their radioactive Treaty referendum and extreme amputation of the State) the more it scares the bejesus out of the middle.”

    Here’s another hypothesis: the problem for National is that it’s hard for people to work out what they stand for.

  7. Is there a Peace No More War party in NZ?

    Not one nz political party is against US, NATO proxy Wars on other nations’ soil?

    Anyone?

    WWIII knocking on the door and not one of them can be bothered to get off their fat arses to answer the door.

  8. ” LABOUR – 36%

    NATIONAL – 35% ”

    71% still believe voting for the same old parties means the same old failure of the status quo with nothing new to offer except continuing as we are with some variation.

    Its not working.

    The choice of preferred PM doesn’t inspire much confidence either.

    • It’s remarkable how little choice there is, even amongst the parties outside Parliament. The only party with any major policy differences would be Grant Gillon and the Social Credit Party, but they appear to have fallen below 500 registered members.

    • Wait for the last 30 day run-up to the election. That’s when they’ll reach out to the cancelled lot. The “15-20 percenters”.
      That part of the population that the fascist labour government cancelled for having an opinion about the covid scam(s) and dictatorship style of government that was in play then.
      Remember, covid was a political issue, not a medical one for NZ. Why so you may ask? Because the ex-PM bailed out because she received a letter in September 2021 from a few business folks and then as if by magic, it was all over in days. The end of lockdowns and the floodgates were to open and they did, and they have.

      The rest is history, to be written.

      They’ll be kissing their nono, hard out!

  9. Just another friendly reminder that under ACT/National, no worker will get a payrise every again.

    • Probably a pay decrease if anything based on David’s proposal to let businesses ignore minimum wage laws in wake of natural disasters…

    • If inflation is not running at 12 percent then automatic pay rises are not needed .Any rise would come through increased productivity

      • In a decent society, ie one where rich pricks like you want to hoard all the wealth, get automatic payrise because it is the right thing to do

  10. It surprises me to read just how many people still think we have quaint version of that old first past the post politics when in reality, we have no politics at all. Neo-liberalism isn’t politics and it should be chilling to consider that neo-liberalism is now well dug in to under the skin of our democracy. One could liken [it] in fact to a disease. A cancer, effectively, because Labour is still neo-liberal and National’s the inbred uncle fucking a good and innocent thing which gives rise to that most vile and despicable bastard child, neo-liberalism, and neo-liberalism isn’t a politic with good intentions, it’s a scam, a scheme. A dodgy, crooked, criminal disease who’s etymology is in greed as being good.
    AO/NZ is in a dire and dangerous place because #A. It doesn’t matter which fly finds its purpose within politics because all our politics are the same thing.
    #B Our finances are rural in creation and agricultural is our primary industry yet our rural sector has no power at all. Agricultural politics is represented by cunning arse holes well educated beyond their intelligence in how to steal farmer money plausibly thus maintaining the illusion that our farmers have strong political representation when, in fact, the opposite is true.
    The politics of agriculture is one of the cunning leading the determinedly ignorant. Our farmers bumble from one liar to another in gaunt hope while those same liars bend our farmers over and reach around into their pockets while never straying far from the brothels along Ponsonby Road or the Old Boy Clubs of Herne Bay.
    Our politics is dead. We literally have no real politic. All we have is an ugly little shop full of crooks pimping cheap ideas to the terminally stupid and the morbidly penniless.
    We need a very public royal commission of inquiry immediately to lance the boil or we’re fucked.

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