Boom – latest Roy Morgan Poll is out and Māori Party are back in as Kingmakers…
Labour: 31%
National: 31.5%
ACT: 13.5%
Greens: 12%
Māori Party: 4.5%
NZF: 3.5%
What is most fascinating that a staggering 54.5% believe the country is going in the wrong direction, yet National are only beating Labour by .5%.
National are selling a Labour minority led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party as the ‘coalition of chaos’ which exposes a grotesque level of ignorance on Chris Luxon’s behalf.
So how would a Labour led Government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Maori Party would actually work?
If Labour + Green are reliant on the Māori Party for votes to get the 51% necessary to pass the budget, there would be a price extracted from Labour for that supply and confidence. vote
There will be bottom-lines that the Māori Party will require in return for that supply and confidence vote.
If those bottom-lines are universal policies like GST off food and taxing the Rich, the Maori Party say themselves up as true disruptors and build legacy towards 2026.
The Māori Party would then go onto the cross benches and if their list of demands on policy is too great, it allows Labour to turn to the National Party for votes instead.
The cross bench giveth and it can taketh away, if the Maori Party demands are too great it allows National to offer up votes for legislative changes.
This isn’t ‘chaos’, this is how MMP is supposed to work.
The issue for the Left are what the bottom-lines the Maori Party will demand.
They could be very selfish demands that will permanently damage the Māori Party or they could be wide ranging policy like GST off food that would make an enormous difference to poor people.
That is the true question of the 2023 election, what can the Maori Party gain for their supply and confidence vote.
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Boom! Boomer Bradbury strikes again!
There’s nothing like a good like idea. Nobody remembers who’s idea it was to build roads. Nobody knows whose idea it was to bang stones together or light a fire. Nobody knows who birth humanity. But it was a good bloody idea.
Well we know that polls a dud. That would mean another 100-ish thousand more peeps will have to vote for the CRTMP.
It ain’t gunna happen. They’ve shat the bed with Meka and Big Bro Willie is gunna have a crack at that seat soooooo…gud luck with that theory.
Tell us more… not about the interpretation of the polls.
I am interested to understand CRTMP.
But, too scared to ask…. I also suffer from a wokerightist.
Greens 12%? GTFO
Yeah, no way they get that number. They’ll struggle to get 5-7%. None of the recent polls support this.
So 54 percent of the country think National and Labour are same same but different?
GST off food would help,the rich more than the poor .zThe 2018 tax review said losing the income from scrapping gst off food would have an effect on help to the poor than the rich and as well the rich pay more than the poor on that food gst .If it came off there would not be a drop in price by 15 percent due to administration costs . Silly idea from a now show pony party.
That’s hard to follow but generally the issue is not who pays the highest amount of GST but who pays the highest proportion of their income to GST.
A poor family that can barely make ends meet will be very grateful for any drop in the cost of living and it could well stop some going into debt, which is very significant. Meanwhile a rich family will just get more money to spend on their yearly overseas holiday – even if it is of a greater numerical value it’s not going to make much of a difference to their lives.
Bro if you needed 15% off your food bill you’d understand.
Ever Tuesday I cook a meal at the city mission for between 30 and 40 men. I buy the vegetables they supply the meat.I work out the meal and check the local green grocer and the 2 supermarkets to get the best price and sometimes it can be up $15 difference so how would you know if the gst was off or not as the cheapest is not always the same outlet
It’s not about the rich at all is it Trevor. 15% is nothing when you are loaded but a whole lot when you are lower income.
Food stamps?
Link it to community services cards.
Then government can target specific products.
Massive benefits at a relatively low additional administrative cost and very little loss in tax revenue.
GST on food hurts the poor much more than the rich. This is because the cost of food is much more of the total budget of a poor individual whereas, although rich might have a bigger shopping list due to having higher disposable income, as a percentage of total expenditure it is much less for a rich person.
GST should be cut to 10% (0% for food) and funded by either CGT or FTT – which would more than cover this cost.
Really? Maybe a little too much pipe weed.
Time to wake up Martyn, you’re dreaming again.
If that happens, it will be chaos, have doubt of that. This country can’t handle anymore of Labour’s killing kindness.
The thing is, New Zealand has been getting progressively worse for decades and VOTERS voted for that.
Voted Labour.. Vote National.. you voted for the current state-of-the-nation.
So.. ..the chickens have come home to roost – honestly, cry me a river!
There is a growing number of Kiwis who just feel sad for people that watch the 6 O’clock News and 7 O’clock shows like the one with that old lady and the dude who use to be on the energy commercials.
Labour.. National.. that’s who they vote for. They’ll have lots of chickens but few eggs.
The training wheels will come off if we give them another turn. Yeah, right!
And then watch them fly…
Arse over tits across the handlebars.
Unfortunately they are taking us for the ride too, if we allow then to take us for a ride.
No. 48.5 plays 47.5.
The pint of Lion Red at the Duke of Marlborough is becoming more and more a reality and I don’t believe Luxon has the pride of English nor his backers the patience to forgo this.
The more of these polls the more chance Shane Jones is given a free swing in Northland. Oh I can’t wait for Peters to recall Mallard and publicly not support Ardern’s UN ambitions……
Do you really believe the Greens are pulling 12% Martyn? Really?
Cos if you do, how about this shiny bridge?
Definitely looking like a Labour/Green/TMP Coalition.
What a relief.
Nearly though we may see a change in our fortunes.
Greens getting 12% indicates how much we van trust this poll…or any. As credible as food/wine critics.
Main purpose of those polls seems to be as “inspiration” for lazy journos to reuse/recycle their comments
Your tallest player always jumps highest.
Yep, Greens that high suggests they’ve been nowhere near power. That is a wildly wrong number!
They eliminated the traitor.
Of course everything will be fine from here on in.
Happy family.
I don’t think that GST off food is going to occur in the near future regardless of what major political party wins the 2023 general election.
Labour Greens and TMP will just force more woke identity politics on this country at the expense of the economy, the environment and education.
NACTZ will unleash more destructive neoliberal hyper capitalism on the long sufferring workers whilst lining the pockets of the rich.
Labour and National are separate wings of the same vulture.
Nothing Labour promises is going happen, ever. Unless some other party does it. Dream if you want, but know you are being lied to.
Don’t be so negative folks. Just say BOOOOOM!
I think shit hitting the fan makes a different sound.
That sound you hear isn’t the rightwing utopian dream of war, brother against brother, prisons for life instead of jobs for life macerating around an electronic fan. It’s poor people sitting those imaginary wars on fire. Burn baby burn.
there would be a price extracted from Labour for that supply and confidence. vote
Wrong, that price is extracted from the current and next generation of tax payers.
I almost hope they get in and we get to see what a cluster it will be for our own eyes.
No problem.
JT will be there.
What can go wrong?
Here is the thing.
Those who choose to vote determine who will govern.
When you poll they tell you where they will tick if they vote.
There are those who will not vote because they cannot vote for their side but they cannot get them selves to vote for the other side. The pollster cannot distinguish.
54% is the most reliable marker.
” What is most fascinating that a staggering 54.5% believe the country is going in the wrong direction, yet National are only beating Labour by .5%. ”
I can’t remember the last time the two main neoliberal parties polling so low and at the same position at 31% of the party vote.
Sure ACT have hoovered up a decent chunk of National voters and at this stage of the game they aren’t coming home.
The Greens at 12 ? why anyone who classed themselves as environmentally concerned or believe in social justice thinks that the Greens represent that at all anymore.
There is a massive vacuum of confidence out there that LINO or the Nasties have the answers or are talking about doing anything to address the current crises we are not dealing with.
31% of the party vote is low for a major party and shows just how far LINO has fallen after the landslide win in 2020. They have squandered that mandate and could still loose in October.
Greens on 12% ???????????
Of course they are!!!!
National: Vote Labour for Chaos
Labour: Vote National for financial Pain.
Where is vision. Where is the promise to lead us to a Fair Go Society backed up with the competence to implement it.
hard to believe in as much as I am perplexed by what is making the green vote so high. They should be polling at 5 – 6%. The rest I believe showing a widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo and our supposed options. Also I think NZF is probably already at 4 and has a good chance at hitting the 5% mark in the election providing matters continue the way they are.
So if NZF make 5% then the Maori Party will no longer be Kingmakers. The election is still anybody’s. I dont remember the last time this sort of thing happened.
Winston and Winston First have stated that they would not go with Labour however he ahs been known to change his mind ?
Haaaa love it….are you going to make ‘BOOM’ posts every time maori party get 4% or thereabouts, but no ‘BOOM’ posts when they at their normal 2.5/3.0% for other polls…go for it Martyn, I will enjoy watching your roller coaster of hope!
Nzf will be king makers , right in the middle making the far left and right impotent
No
https://theconversation.com/the-real-cost-of-new-zealands-two-tier-health-system-why-going-private-doesnt-relieve-pressure-on-public-hospitals-206491?
Finally someone saying out loud what I have been saying for a decade.
https://theconversation.com/the-real-cost-of-new-zealands-two-tier-health-system-why-going-private-doesnt-relieve-pressure-on-public-hospitals-206491?
What a bunch of sad sacs when the right polling is ahead you believe the polls religiously when the right is in the shite (struggling or even) you rubbish the polls. Why don’t you just admit it, it is going to be very close we are a divided country like many others.
GST off beer and close all Vape shops the only way to win swinging voters
” GST off beer and close all Vape shops the only way to win swinging voters ”
Yeah we really are fucked Marco.
Fantail why is hard to believe the Greenies vote is high when we have had unprecedented flooding as has other countries like Italy.
You could be right if you assume voters still think the Greens represent a commitment to the environment. Increasingly people dont and the Greens have done themselves no favours this year with their endless dramas that have been well publicised.
Given that everyone knows the Greens will likely struggle to get 5% this election cycle (and deservedly), you can see what a rogue poll this is (if not utterly fabricated to give the illusion it will be a close election, which imo it won’t).
Greens overachieve every election, same again this year.
Continuing to drag them down will only leave you in tears.
Winston and Winston First have stated that they would not go with Labour however he ahs been known to change his mind ?