What a crazy week! Russian Victory Day is fast approaching and this week we saw clear signs of the strain the Ukraine War is putting on Putin’s kleptocracy. The first big news item this week was the Kremlin drone attack. This attack happened on 3 May and the attack is most likely to be either:
- A ‘false flag’ attack, committed by Russia against Russians to engender support for the war; or
- An attack carried out by Russians opposed to Putin. Most likely ultra-nationalists concerned about the conduct of the war and Russia’s impending defeat.
The evidence clearly points to one or other of these options. A drone launched from Ukraine penetrating Moscow’s air-defences is highly unlikely. The fact that the drone attack happened to be captured on camera is more likely, but the graphic and dramatic footage raises a red flag. Compare this footage to the video that we see of any drone or missile attacks Ukraine executes in Crimea. Shaky blurry footage consistent with being filmed at short-notice or captured by accident. This attack’s footage on the other hand is relatively clear and makes dramatic viewing.
Another red flag is the drone’s small size, the people on the roof of the Kremlin providing a good indication that this was not a long-range drone. A drone able to fly long distances for instance from either Ukraine; or from a base area safely outside Moscow needs fuel. Carrying fuel requires size and the drone in the footage is not a long-range aircraft. In fact, it appears to be a relatively small drone.
Finally, the explosive charge is small and either the drone’s fuel tank was full; or the explosive was doctored to contain incendiaries because the flash and flame captured on the film is not consistent with a simple high-explosive device. Real-life high-explosive detonations are underwhelming to watch after years of movie special effects explosions. The flash of a high explosive device is instantaneous and relatively small. The long, slow burn shown is not consistent with a damaging charge. Put simply, it looks like a special effects explosion.
Russia has already blamed Ukraine and the United States. A predictable statement. Consideration of the factors above makes it unlikely that it was an attack launched from Ukraine. It is possible that Ukraine has supported; or encouraged local Russian dissidents but there does not seem to be much to gain from an attack as small as the one shown. And; if the attack was initiated by or on behalf of the United States it is more likely that it would have hit the right place with sufficient force to have produced a meaningful result. Instead, the Kremlin drone attack reeks of a staged attack carried out by Russian actors. The question is why?
Although it is possible that the attack is orchestrated by Russian dissidents, this theory seems unlikely. Moscow air-space is some of the most heavily defended in the world so it is unlikely that a drone was flown into the area from the surrounding countryside. Further, the area around the Kremlin is under constant security surveillance meaning that finding a launch point nearby is difficult. So, although Russian dissidents cannot be ruled out it seems more likely that the attack is a false flag attack.
If the attack is a ‘false flag’ operation then its motivation is probably twofold. The first possible motivation being that the attack provides a reason to scale down Victory Day celebrations. In a couple of days on 9 May, Russia celebrates its victory over Nazi Germany. A significant date in the Russian calendar generally celebrated with massive parades of soldiers and military hardware. Unfortunately for Putin, most of his soldiers and military hardware are in Ukraine. If Victory Day parades happen and cannot demonstrate the power and might that Russians are used too; the parades could demonstrate the cost of the war to ordinary Russians. Something we can be sure that Putin does not want to happen. A convenient terrorist threat could provide a reason to cancel all or some of the planned parades.
The second and more obvious motivation for a false flag attack may be a desire to escalate the war. Or as the Institute for the Study of War assessed the situation on 3 May, ‘Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization.’ That the attack is propaganda aimed at convincing the Russian people that there are good reasons to suffer the effects of mobilising not only more manpower but also the domestic economy for war. Both actions that will impact heavily on ordinary Russians. The attack on the Kremlin could also be used to justify direct attacks on President Zelenskyy or for further more brutal bombing attacks on Ukraine’s cities.
The second big issue this week is Yevgeny Prigozhin’s meltdown in Bakhmut. Prigozhin, the founder of Russian mercenary company Wagner Group on 5 May released a video stating that he intended to pull his Wagner Group soldiers out of the battle for Bakhmut. A couple of days later he released an even more powerful video full of swearing and personal attacks on Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov blaming them personally for his failure.
Tension between Wagner Group and the Russian military is not new and has been rising for months. Prigozhin using the Battle of Bakhmut as an opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of his mercenaries. The Wagner Group entered the battle with a big reputation built on their activity in Africa, Syria and other Russian areas of interest. Unfortunately, for Russia Wagner Group failed to live up to Prigozhin’s hype or Putin’s expectations.
This is not a surprise to military observers, for all their brutality and macho posturing Wagner Group soldiers have proved no match for trained American soldiers on the occasions there has been direct contact. In Syria during the Battle of Khasham, in February 2018, 40 American special forces soldiers fought off an attack by 4-500 local forces allegedly led by many Wagner Group mercenaries assaulting an outpost protecting a Conoco gas plant near a city called Deir al-Zour. Further, Wagner Group soldiers have not performed well in combat taking heavy casualties in several of their African operations, especially in Mozambique where anecdotal information from experienced African private military contractors suggests that they have a low level of capability.
The reality is that Wagner Group’s soldiers are not the ‘supermen’ of Cold War tropes, instead they are relatively poorly trained and led thugs that have developed a reputation of being effective based on propaganda and fighting poorly trained opponents. When confronted by competent and trained soldiers they are found lacking. That is why they have not captured Bakhmut.
Prigozhin is not; and never was a soldier. He bought the Wagner hype and thought that his soldiers could deliver Bakhmut for Putin. He was wrong and is smart enough to know that he needs to blame someone else quickly; and for months has been loudly complaining on social media about the Russian Army not providing enough support and ammunition. The Institute for the Study of War, on 5 May assessing that the Russian Army is deprioritising Bakhmut and brigading ammunition and logistics support elsewhere as they prepare for Ukraine’s attack. A situation that is dangerous for Prigozhin who has risked his political future on taking the city.
And; this week Prigozhin’s claims escalated into a full-scale, social media tantrum. Prigozhin blaming Shoigu and Gerasimov for the failure to take Bakhmut; and stating that he will withdraw his forces from the battle. This type of public infighting demonstrates the weakness of Russia’s kleptocracy. If ‘Team Putin’ are fighting like this in public imagine what is happening behind closed doors. A year ago, I would have assessed this display of dysfunctional leadership as being a maskirovka or Russian strategic propaganda designed to deceive Ukraine and its allies, enticing them to take greater risks by providing a perception of weakness. After more than a year of studying the Russians, it is most likely that this behaviour can be explained by the politicking and in-fighting that a dictator’s henchmen all too often fall prey too, it is not unusual but the lack of unity undermines Russia’s ability to face the coming Ukrainian offensive.
Further, the tension is reaching a point at which Putin will need to take action and his options are limited. He can mediate the situation, weakening the Russian army’s ability to manage its resources in the campaign; or he can withdraw his patronage of Prigozhin. Unfortunately, trying to speculate on why this situation exists and about how it will resolve is impossible. Instead, it is better to consider the effects of Putin’s options. If Putin mediates it will weaken the already weak Russian command chain and further dissipate Gerasimov’s ability to create unity of effort in his force. If Putin withdraws Prigozhin’s patronage, we can expect that he will soon be ‘accidently’ falling out of a hotel window.
Mainstream media’s commentators continue to downplay expectations of the Ukrainian offensive. This seems wrong, in my opinion the evidence points to a strong likelihood of a major Ukrainian success. Ukraine’s forces are as ready as they will ever be, trained and well-equipped. Already, we can see that Ukraine is making preparatory moves. This week Ukrainian HIMARS strikes have been reported along the length of the Zaporizhian frontline in the south and along the Svatove-Kremina line in the north. In Russia’s depth, we are seeing burning fuel facilities and logistic infrastructure. Further, Ukrainian forces are slowly probing forwards and ‘closing the gaps’ along the entire frontline. Examples include at Vuledhar and Aviidivka where local Ukrainian advances have taken place in recent days. Essentially, Ukraine is isolating front-line Russian units from the fuel, ammunition and support then ‘closing up’ trying to pick where the Russians are weakest.
And; the Ukrainians are likely to be spoilt for choice. Avril Haines, the United States Director of National Intelligence stated on 4 May at the Senate Armed Service Committee that Russia would be unable to conduct even modest offensives in 2023 without receiving third party ammunition and starting mandatory mobilisation.
The facts are that Russia has approximately 370-400,000 soldiers in Ukraine. Most are not frontline combat soldiers, probably only a third are frontline combat soldiers. Perhaps 120-130,000 actual fighting soldiers; or around 100 – 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG). Covering a frontline measuring about 500-600km excluding the section that is on the Dnipro River. Along the front any defence requires ‘depth;’ or local forces behind the frontline able to make local counter attacks. And; at operational level (i.e. within the Russian army in Ukraine) there should be larger reserves ready to counter attack. An operational reserve is often a third to a fifth of a force’s total strength. During the Cold War, a third of the 1st British Corps was held to the rear ready to counter attack. Across the Northern Army Group’s area of operations, that 1st British Corps was part of, a large United States corps provided depth and a reserve for the four NATO corps on the frontline.
We can speculate that Russia will retain 30-40 BTGs in depth, or behind the frontline out of immediate contact but ready to counter attack a Ukrainian breakthrough. Therefore about 80-90 BTGs covering their 5-600km frontline or at least 6 km of frontage per BTG, about double Russia’s normal aim for a BTG’s defensive frontage. This correlates with the Institute for the Study of War’s assessment of the Russian order of battle published on 23 April that described Russia’s army as ‘degraded and decentralised’ and stated in part that “It is highly likely that the majority of Russian elements throughout Ukraine are substantially below full strength due to losses taken during previous phases of the war.” The Russians have too few soldiers, spread to far and without a large counter attack force.
Even if Russia has a large reserve getting it to the battle will be very difficult. Tanks and other tracked vehicles have very limited ‘track life’ meaning they can only travel short distances (about 500km) before needing major maintenance so they are normally moved long-distances by truck or train. Russia has a very limited fleet of tactical trucks and we can see that Ukraine is currently using HIMARS to batter rail lines and other infrastructure used to move forces around. Essentially, Russia’s problem is that they need to have their reserves nearby or it is unlikely they will get them to the decisive point of the battle in time to stop a large Ukrainian break out.
The Russians are mitigating this problem by digging trenches and fortifying areas. Aiming to either defeat the initial assault; or to slow it down enough that reserves can be brought forwards. Unfortunately, Russia’s key issue is that these defences are held by very poor-quality soldiers. A group of people that have been idle for months on most sections of the front, sitting out a cold and wet winter in trenches waiting for Ukraine’s offensive. Thinking about what summer has in store for them. It seems unlikely that this force will be able to put up much of a fight; and NATO engineering tanks and precision guided artillery is a factor provides Ukraine with the capability to defeat prepared defences. I am reminded of Iraq’s defensive lines in the 1993 Gulf War, easily defeated by the coalition’s modern engineering and artillery and think observers will be surprised by Ukraine’s ability to breach Russia’s defences.
In summary, the Ukrainian offensive is coming, as inevitably as the ground is drying out. We do not know where the offensive will develop, but my money is still on it finishing on the coast of the Sea of Azov severing the Crimean Land Bridge and isolating Crimea. However, the more I study the situation and put myself in the average Russian soldier’s shoes and observe the fractured nature of their leadership the more optimistic I am that Ukraine’s offensive will defy expectations and produce a war winning result.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger
Ben – So Russia bombed Russia?? Yeah, right!
And all those political opponents just fell down the stairs yeah?
Also still questions around Putin’s role in the 1999 apartment bombings:
https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible
Spot on James. Everyone should read Litvinenko’s book ‘Blowing Up Russia’.
A person located inside Russia launched these drones.
Surely if Russia did it the outcome would have looked very different. A bit of white phosphorous or at least a kind of impressive blast.
Only NATO and Ukraine can plan and execute this type of assassination attack.
The idea it was an assassination attempt is absurd. There was no way the attacker would have known where Putin was. The size of the bomb was so small, it couldn’t even damage the roof.
Most probably it was little more than demonstrative theatre. The drone was small, sufficiently small enough to fit into a car and to launch from a apartment or back garden. It would have been launched within Moscow. It had to be in relatively close range (radio signal) so the controller could get video to guide it into the flagpole. It wouldn’t surprise me if the controller had an actual line of sight view
Wayne – Perhaps, yet Ben still accepts that Russia blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline…no real thinking
Hey y’know a Royal New Zealand Air Force intelligence operative was done in for meth and handing over state secrets. Y’know every state in the world gets caught doing dumb stuff. Most of the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan was due to bright eyed young people straight out of uni coming up with foreign policy decisions on the fly. This is what states do. We all do dumb stuff.
Sam – Sounds good
The Scandinavians believe Russia did it.
Gadfly – SOME Scandinavians
Totally. But sanity is in short supply.
Demonstrative theatre is a good description. The question is by whom? I don’t find the false flag arguments at all conclusive or credible.
And what is plausible?
Good question which is why we should be very skeptical and questioning.
Johan Thiart – Bingo!
Assassination my arse
Ben only gave two options, Russia did both. Very shallow thinking indeed.
Alternately Ukraine and Western psyops did it in a further attempt to make Russian troops and civilians question their leadership, to sow discord. If that is the case all that has been achieved is to unite Russia more. Expect no rush, dishes will likely be served cold.
You want Russia to win dont you Ivan, you are a fucking disgrace as a human being
Hi Ted, I certainly don’t want Nazis and people who put up statues of mass murderers of Jews to win. That really would make somebody a disgrace of a human being. Do you?
You are totally deluded in seeing the Ukrainians as Nazis Nick J. There are some but there are a helluva lot of neo-Nazis sitting in the Donbas and Crimea let alone the rest of Russia! Read Timothy Snyder’s: ‘The Road to Unfreedom’. Schizofascism. I think Ted has a point when you state your Putinist doctrine manifesto.
You are in denial Blowfly. The evidence was even being published in Western msm until 2014 when they suddenly became good guys.
PS Snyder… I read Bloodlands, won’t waste time reading neo Con interpretations of the world from a man who knows historic facts yet will stand in a photo with Zhelensky.
Oh come on Nick J, by no stretch of the imagination could Snyder be called a neo- conservative. Your tendency to label people creates crass generalisations plucked from the Putin playbook.
Read the ‘Road to Unfreedom’ Nick J but you don’t like to have your fixed ideas challenged so I know you will never read it. I dare you to go to Yale and allege that Snyder is a neo-conservative. You’ll get run out of town!
I want Russia to WIN, along with the Global South, Africa, China & the Middle East, that’s 75% of the World’s Population HeathTed you dumbfuck Moron!
Well they are dependent on their military prowess by a bunch of mostly convicts headed by a former crim and hotdog vender, so you never really know.
I think Ben’s arguments about the drone attack being staged are certainly worthy of consideration. Did the Ukrainians think Vlad might be on the roof fixing a loose tile?If not it just shows the Kremlin is defenceless which is incredibly embarrassing when you are invading a neighbour and haven’t considered this? Bollocks.
The Russian conquest of fascism and terrorism in the mid 20th century is the only reason you are alive and blogging today, so show them some respect. History will also remember those promoting the extremist regimes today, encouraging the American far right and their mass murdering ideologies and greed. Our government and media are complicit in these crimes against humanity, sending weapons and support abroad while preaching kindness and empathy at home. Not only have Western governments lost their collective minds, they will lose the fight to promote their Nazism and hate, they will lose the fight to remove the rule of law, they will lose any morality they have left and they will finally lose any support they had when the public awakens and turns on these degenerate terrorists.
Ukraine fought on the Soviet side too don’t forget.
“The Russian conquest of fascism and terrorism in the mid 20th century is the only reason you are alive and blogging today” – The only reason Russia (or the USSR at the time) were involved in WW2 is because Germany invaded them in ’41 and after the USSR worked in concert with Germany in the earlier invasion of Poland.
Thanks Ben
There are solid reports, supported by photos, of the mass evacuation of civilians along the Kerch bridge. Is this the Russian occupiers running for their lives or is it a preparatory move for a nuclear strike?
Andrew – Golden rule of the NATO – Russia war, never believe the main stream media…use common sense instead
That’s like cutting off your nose to spite your face Nathan. The MSM has a wide spectrum of positions mostly far superior to wack job alternative sites.
Prigozhin isn’t a military man he’s a rich prick billionaire that likes playing wargames acting like a 6 year old throwing a tantrum because he can’t get whateva he wants. He probably suffering from PTSD seeing death and destruction on a massive scale isn’t good for the soul.
What also telling about this latest article of Ben Morgan is admitting that the US are in Syria even though he doesn’t mention the important piece out loud “illegally”. The US also uses local and outside forces to fight the Syrian govt and their allies the Russian, Iranians. The Timber Sycamore report highlights these groups that the US arms and trains in Syria are Takfir Jihad fighters that are aligned with Al Qaeda and ISIS. The US with its proxies/Jihadis/Takfir/ISIS are occupying Syrian oil and wheat fields denying the Syrian population of much needed resources.
The Ukrainians had 8 years of fortifying themselves in Bakmut which is an important strategic location of supply routes and logistical towards the Donbas. Zelensky has lost many men defending this important strategic location 7-1 in favour of the Russian noted in the current leaks coming out of the US intelligence apparatus. Even General Cavoli before the senate arms committee admitted that the Russian haven’t been significantly impacted negatively by the Ukrainian and other theatre of war.
Lastly when Ben Morgan mentioned that the US 1993 attack on the Iraqis proves how well trained the Ukrainian forces are that they can breakdown any military defences? The russian defences that have been compromised has little strategic use probably why they’ were easy to infiltrate. The Iraqis were no match for NATO led forces beside undergoing crippling sanctions before the NATO lead attacks in 1991 so their defences was already weakened by the time that the Ukrainian forces were deployed to the frontline.
Was reading time magazine from June 1944 just before D Day. There’s an article in it saying that America was sending troops to “defend” Britian. In reality we all know they where planning an invasion.
New Zealanders got sucked in by Helen Clarks “benign strategic environment” comments as if states suddenly forgot how to amass an invasion force. Just because America is our wonderful police officer for the world doesn’t mean that increasing U.S military spending amounts to a “peace keeping force.”
You guys have to be a set of absolute economic geniouses worthy of a degree in economics from the humanity’s department at Waikato University.
Absolute correct, Prigozhin threw a Tantrum because he’s being replaced for not following the Russian Military Chain of Command!
It was a crap “assassination” attempt and the comments about what high explosives actually look like is interesting. Ultimately it did no harm and just provided some nice visuals.
So then what good does it do Ukraine or NATO? Nothing. Just propaganda for Putin. As with everything, starting with Cui Bono is a good thing to do.
Note forthright bannable speech!
Back into the future. War will never go out of fashion – it’s a great base of consumer demand for…arms of many kinds.
The Vietnam War brought forth the musical ‘Hair’.
This is one of its numbers performed by Australian cast 1969. (with outspoken lyrics).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSsRlWFgJas
Information – historical. Note language may be banning material by some.
Quick Google search turned up this:
What does 3-5-0-0 mean?
Answer #1: According to James Rado, it represents the number of G.I. casualties (either per week or per month, he isn’t sure) at the height of the Vietnam War. (Thanks to Jessica Kardos for this answer.)
Answer #2: Three-five-zero-zero, or the number three-thousand-five-hundred, is the number of Americans (Marines), who, on March 8, 1965, landed in Vietnam, the first ever to be specifically designated as COMBAT troops, thus marking a turning point, the official beginning of America’s (or LBJ’s) escalation of the War in Vietnam. (Thanks to Joseph Tioga for this answer.)
From The Hair Pages
posted by Hargrimm at 9:00 PM on March 21, 2007
Best answer: 3,500 US Marines that landed at Danang in Vietnam on March 8, 1965, thus signifying the official shift in America’s role from an advisory one to an active combat one…
Even more controversial is the reference to DC as “Niggertown” in the same song.
posted by klangklangston at 9:54 PM on March 21, 2007
Loosening a few roofing tiles on their seat of government, the Kremlin, hasn’t impressed anyone. The German Nazis were prepared to burn down the whole seat of German government, the Reichstag, for a false flag attack.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire#1955_testimony_of_SA_member_Hans-Martin_Lennings
Great article and analysis. The Ukrainian counter attack has already begun with Bakhmut – that was only intended to suck in resources and weaken the Russians. Putin and the Orc in the photo shouldn’t have staked their reputations on taking Bakhmut and instead sat tight for the winter. Defending always easier than attacking and the Ukrainians have been able to sit there and slowly grind the attacking Russians down in prep for the summer offensive.
My pick on where they’re going to break through – Zaporizhzhiya and across to Mariupol – cuts off the Crimea and gives the the full buffer width of the Sea of Azov.
There is a certain amount of panic among Russian bloggers now the counter attack shaping is happening. It is not just Prighozin being highly critical of Russian strategy and saying the counterattack will be successful. Girkin is now predicting Russia will lose the war and is pushing damage limitation strategies for Russia. There are traffic jams on the roads leading to and out of Crimea (again) and Russian HQ’s are being shifted out of Zaporizhiya. Confidence from the world’s self proclaimed second best military is very low. I’m interested in seeing how capable Russian defence will be. Their winter/spring offensive was underwhelming and a failure considering the resources lost for very small gains. Russian military impotence and frustration leads to the go to attacks on civilians which just hardens Ukranian resolve and results in almost worldwide disgust in the Putin regime. The recent UN vote was an eye opener with even China not supporting Russia.
Full Putin Speech at the Victory Day Parade 2023
“..We see how in certain countries they ruthlessly and cold-bloodedly destroy memorials to Soviet soldiers, demolish monuments to great commanders, create a real cult of the Nazis and their proxies, erase and demonize the memory of true heroes. Such profanation of the feat and sacrifices of the victorious generation is also a crime, an outright revanchism on the part of those who were cynically and blatantly preparing a new march on Russia and who brought together neo-Nazi scum from around the world for this. ..”
URA!
https://twitter.com/upholdreality/status/1655948103206465539
People are seeing that the Nazis Germany and Stalin and Putin Russia are peas from the same pod. Remember Nazi Germany and Stalin’s soviets were allies who formed a pact splitting Poland between them and it was only betrayal by Hitler’s Germany that turned Stalin against Nazi Germany. Modern Russia are now the pact breakers (betrayers) and are the new Neo Nazi’s. One must remember who invaded who and who is behaving like the Nazi’s of old. Clue; it is not Ukraine. IMO and that of many others Putin and his henchmen are Neo Nazis. Yet Putin continually “gaslights” just like Hitler’s regime used to! Regarding Russia, “judge them on what what they do and don’t believe what they say” is a good maxim learn’t long ago by Russia’s Baltic neighbours.
Putin and co. are the new Nazis with all their atrocities against war prisoners and civilians. Overnight an expensive missile was directed at a Red Cross/Crescent food warehouse near Odessa killing one civilian. Putin and co. your version of the Nuremberg trials await.
What a Moron you are Trev! Russia lost 27 million defeating the Nazi’s you idiot, they recently celebrated Victory Day over Nazi Germany, a solemn Day, their version of Anzac Day but the Anzac’s celebrate a Military failure while Russia destroyed the Nazi’s & are doing the same to the Ukrainians who were Nazi Collaborators during WW2 & are full of them today & shamefully supported by the USA!
I know who the moron is – and it is not Trev! Putin has an ideological position based on the Eurasianist teachings of Dugin, Ilyin, and Gumilev – all fascists/Nazis to a man. Read Snyder’s: ‘The Road to Unfreedom’ where this is revealed. Alternatively you can imbibe your Putinist propaganda until your hero is on trial at The Hague.
Z at the BBC discussing Schrodingers offensive.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427
Who is feeling embarrassed?
Yevgeny Prigozhin had a meltdown…okay, so he’s human. One could say also that Putin had a meltdown when advised of the number of bio-labs in the Ukraine. WW3 and WW4 are contemporaneous.
Prigozhin is a sub-human criminal. Have you been looking at those conspiracy theory sites again? Try getting some balanced news for a change.