Boom!
The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out and the Māori Party are kingmakers again.
LABOUR – 30%
NATIONAL – 32%
GREENS – 12%
ACT – 12.5%
Māori Party – 4.5%
NZF – 4.5%
TOP – 2%
These numbers suggest National offering Shane an Epsom cup of tea in Northland is worth the consideration.
The Greens peculiar brand of hating white cis males and strangling Free Speech is a winner on the Roy Morgan numbers (a number I just don’t believe btw), but it’s the Māori Party who have constantly polled well in the Roy Morgan that is interesting.
With the cost of living crisis so intense and with Labour doing very little, the Māori Party promise to remove GST from food and tax the rich has electoral appeal.
The polling from the Taxpayers’ Union, TVNZ and Newshub are all due out next week, if these trends follow, this election will be decided by the fringes, not the middle.
There’s no way the Greens are on 12%.
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Martyn – NZ First is also at 4.5% — so they are also Kingmakers…Greens at 12% – pulling my leg
Hang on Nath, you are being selective.
Charles – So is the media….
So that makes it right in your eyes?
Charles – Nope…but, have you been critical about the media yet Charles?
Nope, no platform other than here to do so Nath. If I was critical it would be how so much attention National are being given considering many right wing commentators here say NZ media is pro Labour, bought and paid for by the government.
Have you been critical of this fact Nath?
Charles – The media is nearly always Labour – Green cheerleaders,example, the Albert Park riot…was, according to the media, Trans Joy …so no…
It’s an old poll. Pre-Pidgeon Crybaby season.
Maybe Martyn, people think differently about strangling free speech”. Assuming you are referring to Albert Park they might think “trannys” getting agro is unacceptable but it is adults behaving badly of their own accord not because some party told them to. As for Davidsons comment I think if you were actually a supporter of hers before Albert Park you are kind of ok with stupid anyway.
I am shocked there are 12 percent in support of zGreens i would have thought it would be hard to find 12 people in support of the Greens
12.5% of folks in this poll think what remains in public ownership should be sold to foreign landlords. Turkeys, queueing up for Thanksgiving.
Yes a good snapshot for the Greens.
What % refused to answer?
What % are just f#$#king with the pollsters?
What % change their mind every poll?
What % know the policies that the party they are backing are taking into the election?
What makes up the other 9%
More questions than answers aye.
Good comment.
Re: “What % are just f#$#king with the pollsters?”
In my continuing efforts to blow up the woke and it’s racist discriminatory philosophy. I am an “unemployed 18year old Trans Maori” whenever it comes to responding to polls, questionnaires, feedback etc….
In reality I am a…..well I’ll leave you to guess at that!
The rule is; Polls are great when they support your particular views and suck when the reverse applies. Polls are generally run by for profit companies and should always be treated with caution.
But I’ll say it again…the Green brand is strong enough to have a number of MPs remain in Parliament this year, regardless of professional pundits and infantile online loud mouths and trolls.
I wish you were wrong but I think you’re right.
There are enough people who will tick the “green” box without really thinking it through. I don’t think the recent stupidities have stained the green brand sufficiently to break through to the wider demos.
This is not disseminated where most of those who tick green find their information. However, this will become part of discourse now that labour MP’s are showing dissatisfaction with the direction that Hipkins is travelling by necessity and/or opportunity.
I have read a comment somewhere that the one that jumped ship is leaning conservative, I fear there are progressive labour MP’s who are not happy with the current direction of travel of labour.
Comes down to Winston. Labour are in a pickle. Drop 3 waters and co-governance and court Peters but lose their Maori caucus. Or hold their line and watch Peters deliver his post-ardern Utu.
Fried Irish Duck would appear a must in any post-election discourse.
The herd of elephants in the room is Christopher Luxon. He is the reason National are misfiring and they know it. So what do they do, this close to race day too? I see Hooton speaking up last week, off the back of Prebble. The oompa loompa’s are getting restless!
But Winston, eh? On the home straight, surging forward. That tells me there is defecting from both the Nats and Labour and Labour more so because the more they have to dance with the Greens and TPM, the more he’ll thrive!
Weirdly if they put Winston in charge of National, Natz would probably get a huge surge in the polls.
Many people are working hard in NZ, having mortgage debt and looking at neighbours that have not contributed a cent to NZ society who then make out they are the victims! The first political party who captures those people with real policy and not just marketing spin, (Winston tends to do well at that but is nobbled by Shane Jones), will get enough edge to wipe out the so called kingmakers.
In addition most polls now are completely wrong, Brexit, OZ, US elections etc.
Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong
Princeton’s Sam Wang had to eat his words (and a cricket) in 2016. He talks about the impacts of the pandemic and QAnon on public-opinion tallies in 2020
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-polls-were-mostly-wrong/
(In another weird twist, the pollsters than get it completely wrong, are then asked their opinions again by media – it’s like lets get our opinions off those proven to be wrong!).
Will Australia’s opinion polls be more accurate in 2022 than at the last election?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/16/will-australias-opinion-polls-be-more-accurate-in-2022-than-at-the-last-election
So you want welfare chopped then? No work no eat. If you get sick, hard luck.
well, if abled bodied they might get a job as all the others that pay the taxes for the non workers to live of.
Hadn’t you heard?
Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr said that for the good of the economy (ie. to suppress wage inflation) we must act to increase unemployment.
I still wouldn’t trust Winston not to go with Labour even if he was in charge of National. Lol
The guy could lie straight in bed
They need to dump Luxon. Then it will all look very different.
And replace him with whom? I’m no Luxon fan (understatement), but the Nats seem to have run out of leadership options.
Left field suggestion – Chris Penk.
Agree James+Brown, Penky impressed me when he featured on The Working Group.
Yes I’ve been impressed by Penk too. Comes across as a conservative, rather than a neoliberal. But he’s not on the Nats’ front bench as yet.
That’s decided then Penk it is – I will email the Nats to let them know.
I;ve been saying that for a while. National lacks likeability and intellect, Penk has both. IMO Willis doesnt have what it takes although she was groomed by Key and English and isnt too bad. Reti is awesome but no leader but Reti and Penk I could buy into. Problem is I think they think Penky is too legal for them ie: Being Attorney Gen (In waiting) is always seen as a kind of sideways move. Nobody who has ever lined up for it has ever got the top job?? In recent memory?
Willis is tainted by Key especially Keys lie on not raising gst. She comes across as a hypocrite on defending not having a CGT or wealth tax and on the claim Labour has a hidden agenda.
Adding that she does come across as a screecher, so you are correct, she is not relatable.
Agreed. Willis also showed very poor judgment in leading the putsch to replace Simon Bridges with the clueless glass-jawed Muller.
Yup have been impressed with Reti whenever I have heard him speak on National Radio and I am in no way a fan of the Nats . . Penk with Reti as deputy would seems to be like a pretty fresh and solid combination to me (Reti ticks the Maori box as well for those who need it to be ticked).
Reti is very good if you like a Christian liar
That’s a no for Reti then . .
Maureen Pugh ??
National is stuck with him, for better or for worse.
Hipkins is on borrowed time, though.
Austerity is just not well liked by progressives who also love wealth taxes and are ignorant of unintended consequences.
Every single worker in this country deserves a payrise. Every year. Like 40 years ago. National and ACT will make sure that no one get a payrise every again.
They will also privatise healthcare, cut benefits and sell off state housing. All we will get is a dog eat dog society in which only the strong survive.
Since when do you care about individuals?
I think you slipped up there Millsy.
instead they get inflation. Oh my.
Global headline inflation in the baseline is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly. Inflation’s return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases.
The consumers price index increased 6.7 percent in the 12 months to March 2023, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.
Brilliant work by Labour to keep inflation below Global inflation. Oh my.
And then of course there is a government committed to lifting wages to match inflation.
Oh my.
Annual wage cost inflation is at its highest level since the series began in 1992, up from 4.1 per cent in the year to the December 2022 quarter,” Stats NZ business prices manager Bryan Downes said.
”This aligns with other wage measures, like the unadjusted LCI (labour cost index) and average hourly earnings, both of which also had the largest annual increases on record.”
Note that in the 1990’s when we had low inflation, hardly anyone had a payrises.
note that you are now in 2023 and you still have not gotten a net pay rise thanks to inflation.
Well that statement is false.
So you want payrises? Our productivity is shocking. Maybe we should show something as a country before we can afford to crank up wages. Oil and gas production, minerals and industry, more diary exports and timber production would go a long way. But by the sound of it, you guys all scream for “less this, less that…but more money!” From more comes more.
We had more dairy production when John Key was PM, and wages were sluggish right through that era. The only people who made any money were the farmers. It didnt flow through to the rest of us.
5 percent pay rise 7 percent inflation spells decline ..and a Labour government
3 percent pay rise 2 percent inflation spells happy campers and a National government
There was this pothole repair site with 6 workers. 4 stood around picking their noses and surfing on their phones. Do they deserve a pay rise? Or should they be lucky to have work?
Every single worker in this country deserves a payrises. Not just rich pricks like you
Every worker needs a pay rise and/or a tax cut.
Sorry, not many deserve a pay rise. And no businesses can afford increasing pay for all their workers.
Government can afford to give tax cuts but choose to subsidise the wealthy into Teslas.
Pay rises are earned. I know…it’s a foreign concept.
Higgins or Fulton Hogan ?
Higgins Hogan…merger!
cabbage hut did you actually see that or is your feeble mind getting confused between life and a 70s comedy sketch?
Millsy, it’s already a very bad poddle eat poodle society. The Nurses and Teachers will get paid more under Nat’s anyway.
Really? I think the nursing education loan relief will be seen as an alternative
On these numbers the Labour austerity party and the National party win the next election hands down and we have a moderate government.
We will be moderately FUed but moderate all the same.
We can tell its election time the NZ media always seems to put the boot into the Greens at this time as do the right-wing commentators. As for Meka switching parties this does not surprise me she is merely aligning herself with a party that shares similar views and ideology. I am on the Māori roll and in the Ikaroa Rawhiti area and I will give Meka my vote again this election, but I will be giving Chippy my Party vote at this stage primarily as I don’t want Act and National in power again. I can see our country going backwards under the Nacts. Both the National and Act parties have shown they care mainly about the rich and we all know the trickle down does not trickle down it trickles up. In fact, many millionaires globally became billionaires, and this tends to occur when there is a war or epidemic event. We only have to look at what has happened in Russia. Why some dumb NZers like Trevor above continue to call the Māori party racist when our entire political, judicial, social and economic systems are founded and based on racism and discriminative practices justifies the need for a Māori political party.
Covid you are so right. It is becoming more obvious that New Zealanders are worried about everything but they are not willing to sacrifice anything to pay for it. They want action on climate change, the best education system, the best health system, they want new roads , . The farmers want government support at the drop of a hat. These are the same farmers who lost subsidies under Roger Douglas go figure. But nobody wants to pay for it all they want is tax cuts. We are becoming a selfish society aka survival of the fittest never mind a bugger about anyone else. As for the racists on this page ( you know who you are) who ever is in government will have to abide by the Treaty of Waitangi because its a legal requirement of all NZ governments no matter the color and any party telling you any different is not telling the truth.
The voters in this country are like children playing with fireworks.
They have absolutely no clue as to the level of damage done by the current government and what a catastrophe a left/brown/green government would be.
Expect the best & brightest to abandon ship is this eventuates.
As a voter, you are childlike, correct. The best and brightest left during the Key years, thus NZ needing to import all genre of workers.
A right yellow/blue government would be cataclysmic for the country.
Andrew you’re right (unfortunately) about the horrific damage being done to this country. Seen Jerry Coyne’s recent coverage on his blog “Why evolution is true”? But I don’t agree that all of our best and brightest will leave – some are very attached to this country, and will stay and fight to save our institutions.
Thats good my comments appear to have upset you Andrew now you are saying our so-called bests and brightest may abandon ship if they don’t get there way perhaps, they will look for a tax haven.
I think you read wrong.
He said “will” and that is no maybe.
Personally, I feel a little disappointed. I was hoping that Andrew might ‘abandon ship’..
I assume that the Greens have been strengthened by Labour’s move to the right. Not sure that the Posie Parker / trans stuff is what most people vote on, tho’ it’s great for interminable ranting on social media.
LINO’s move to the right in what sense? They’ve soaked the school curriculum in Critical Race Theory and radical gender ideology, and the PM doesn’t know what a woman is.
LINO haven’t moved anywhere lately. They’re the same combination of neoliberal economics, Critical Race Theory and radical gender ideology that they were under Ardern.
Yup i think you are right, cup of tea in Northland otherwise National will lose the election.
I think there’s a “shy right” effect with these polls – i.e. the Lab/Green/TPM vote is being overestimated.