GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Pacific Intelligence Update

A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

Taiwan’s President meets United States Speaker – China responds

The biggest news in the Pacific region this week was Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen meeting with United States Speaker, Kevin McCarthy.  This meeting took place in Los Angeles on Wednesday and is significant because it demonstrates the United States recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty.  A direct contradiction of China’s position, that Taiwan is not a sovereign state but rather a wayward province that should be absorbed back into China; as happened to Hong Kong. 

The Chinese reaction is swift and dramatic with a rapid escalation of activity in the Strait of Taiwan both in the air and on the sea.  The Strait of Taiwan is bisected by a median line that both sides generally stay behind, China is flouting this convention with aircraft crossing the line; and a carrier group moving to the south of Taiwan.

China has also stated that its coast guard and navy will stop, board and search Taiwanese vessels in the area. Possibly, a very escalatory step because of the physical nature of boarding and because of the legal status of such actions. Taiwan has instructed its vessels to resist Chinese attempts to board them.

Last year’s visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan initiated a similar response. Large-scale manoeuvres are a ‘show of force’ designed to threaten and intimidate.  On Saturday about 70 Chinese aircraft crossed the median line; forcing Taiwan’s air defence network to evaluate the threat and decide how it responds each time because it is always possible that those jets will be armed.  This is tiring and stressful and probes like this also provide China with intelligence about Taiwanese defences.

However, the biggest risk relates to China’s intent to board vessels in the area.  Chinese coast guard and naval vessels are already playing dangerous ‘cat and mouse’ games in the South China Sea demonstrating a willingness to be aggressive.  Boarding Taiwanese flagged ships that are actively resisting could lead to physical clashes either in the process of boarding or when Taiwanese (or allied nations) warships respond to distress calls.  It could be a very dangerous situation. 

New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) reports increase in foreign intelligence activity

This week New Zealand’s SIS released its annual report detailing an increase in foreign intelligence activity in New Zealand.  The agency reports that foreign intelligence agencies are becoming more aggressive; and that it has been involved in operations to monitor and disrupt this activity. The report highlighted increasing activity by foreign agents in New Zealand stating that “The NZSIS has identified increasingly concerning activity from these individuals over the reporting period, including the cultivation of a range of relationships of significant concern.” Further, the report noted that some foreign powers intelligence agencies were ‘‘active and persistent’’ in New Zealand; gathering information, seeking political influence and spreading disinformation. 

That there is an increase in foreign intelligence activity in New Zealand should come as no surprise to regular readers of this column.  The Pacific is a key area of interest for powers that are not military allies of New Zealand including China and Russia. Further, intelligence agencies often look for an indirect approach to gathering information and New Zealand has a close relationship with the world’s most powerful intelligence network ‘Five Eyes’ and because it is a small nation may be viewed as a possible weak link.  

Another troubling aspect of the report is the activity of individual agents working for un-named foreign powers that are tasked with monitoring and influencing individuals living in New Zealand; but deemed subversive by their home countries. The report stating that “Foreign state interference activities cause some members of New Zealand’s communities to feel less safe, secure, and free, thereby impacting their ability to exercise basic human rights, such as their freedom of speech and freedom of association.” 

Although predictable, this is a dangerous trend because if Sino-American competition increases in the Pacific ‘information war’ will become more active in the region. The term ‘information war’ referring to the militarisation of information; including gathering intelligence and then using it to shape future battlefields using propaganda.  An example of information war could be the secret spread of divisive propaganda on social media to undermine trust and confidence in democratic governance. If trust and confidence in government and state institutions can be undermined; it is much easier for a hostile foreign power to create opportunities to influence political decision-making. 

New Zealand is probably well-governed and networked enough within ‘Five Eyes’ to be able to manage this trend but other nations in the Pacific may not be so well-placed; and policy makers in leading Pacific nations should consider how to support other nations. 

Solomon Islands sack anti-Chinese provincial premiere

This week Solomon Islands Minister for Provincial Government and Institution Strengthening, Rollen Seleso disqualified Daniel Suidani, Malaita’s Premiere from the Malaita Provincial Assembly. Suidani is an outspoken critic of Chinese involvement in the Solomon Islands. In 2019, he opposed Solomon Islands cancelling diplomatic relations with Taiwan and switching to China. Recently, it has been claimed that Suidani is independently liaising with Taiwan.  An activity that is at odds with the Solomon Islands national position supporting the ‘One China Policy.’ 

The political heat has been on Suidani for some time and he has been subject to three motions of no-confidence in his provincial assembly.  Supporters claiming that these motions were initiated and bank rolled by his political enemies in central government. 

Malaita is one of Solomon Islands most populous provinces; and is of special note because of its role in the violence of the early 2000s.  Malaita and Guadalcanal being the key protagonists in the conflict and local tensions still exist. 

And; at the heart of this issue is governance and whether the Solomon Islands national government can sack an elected official. Solomon Islands Minister for Provincial Government and Institution Strengthening, Rollen Seleso stating that that “An executive of a provincial assembly is an agent of the national government and the provincial government is included in the concept of the crown and therefore must always abide by the decisions of the national government” or that as Premiere of Malaita, Suidani has an obligation to comply with national policy.  

I am not an expert in the constitutional law of the Solomon Islands, however this is a difficult situation.  China is actively involved in the Solomon Islands, including building infra-structure and supporting the Royal Solomon Islands Police for this year’s Pacific Island Games. In 2022, Solomon Islands signed a security arrangement with China.  Regardless of China’s actual involvement, the sacking of a politician critical of the relationship raises difficult questions about Chinese influence in Solomon Islands politics.  

Exercise Ssang Yong 23 – United States, South Korea and United Kingdom exercise amphibious operations

The United States Marine Corps 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) recently finished a large amphibious exercise in Korea. A MEU is a reinforced infantry battalion, mounted in a landing ship ready for immediate deployment.  It has about 2-2,500 personnel supported by artillery, attack aircraft, light armoured vehicles and helicopters.  The United States has seven MEU on very short-notice to move able to react to threats around the world.

And; this is what the United States and South Korea were practising, responding quickly to a security threat.  Exercise Ssang Yong used to be a regular exercise but in recent years has not taken place; the last one was in 2018. 

Exercise Ssang Yong is notable because it re-starts the series of exercises and because of the presence of the United Kingdom’s 40 Commando.  A Royal Marine Commando is also a battalion-sized rapidly deployable task force.  The point to note for Pacific observers is the increasing defence relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom in the region.  The United Kingdom is already committed to the Pacific through the AUKUS deal and an exercise like this demonstrates that the United Kingdom and the United States are planning to work together closely in any future Pacific conflict.

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger