Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov just said, ““All these territories are inalienable parts of the Russian Federation and they are all protected. Their security is provided for at the same level as [it is for] the rest of Russia’s territory.”
He was asked if the regions were under Moscow’s nuclear umbrella.
Moscow is clearly signalling to the West that Ukrainian roll back of land Russia has claimed is under their nuclear umbrella.
This follows Putin’s same threat last month.
The Russians can’t keep drawing these redlines if the Ukrainians keep crossing them.
I think the battle for Kherson will be the flash point where a tactical field nuke is used on the advancing Ukrainian forces.
Putin will sacrifice Kherson on the alter of his ego.
This will require Russia to cause a multiple front response of global chaos.
Expect the price for Iranian drones to be the final technical skills for Iran to complete their own nuke.
This would trigger Israel’s own existential redline and either learn of this via their own CIA/Mossad intelligence or by Iran successfully testing a nuke.
Imagine a scenario where Russia uses a field nuke and days later, Iran successfully tests a nuclear weapon.
Israel has threatened to conduct complex air attacks deep within Iran to target all their nuclear manufacturing, this would cause an eruption of violence and Oil price shockwaves.
While this was all happening, Xi might chose to strike Taiwan.
I’ve argued while I don’t think Xi would invade Taiwan directly, I do believe they would invade one of the islands around Taiwan as a gesture of dominance.
I think the checkpoints are:
- Russian forces using a field nuke over Ukrainian forces entering Kherson.
- Iran successfully testing a nuclear weapon from Russian technology swapped for drones and missiles.
- Sudden rush of Intelligence chiefs to the President with news that Iran is about to test a nuke.
- Chinese commercial Ferry’s being converted to being military capable.
I think the West have enjoyed too much glee from Putin’s actions while making the American Military Industrial Complex very wealthy.
Russia keeps making the threat that they will use nukes, their threats are becoming a constant test of their weakness. They will calculate that a tactical nuke is an acceptable response to de-escalate.
At this point we are cornering an angry bear armed with a nuke.
If Putin does this, he has to spread the risk out across multiple fronts, giving the Iranians the secret to detonating a nuclear bomb while gaining their drones and missiles broadens the conflict front.
While such geopolitical shockwaves were occurring, Xi could also calculate now is the perfect time to invade Taiwan, the issue of commercial ferry’s being transformed for military service is the Lynch pin to that decision.
The chances of miscalculation and cascading escalation are too numerous and the risks too high.
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The thing about committing genocide is that the perpetrators always try to keep it secret or at least deniable.
Weapons of Mass Destruction, like gas or nuclear fall into that category.
The use of gas weapons in the First world war was so terrible that even Hitler who had enough Sarin to wipe out London never had the nerve to openly use gas weapons on the battlefield. But used Zyklon B in secret. A secret that would never would have come out if the Nazi empire had not been cracked right open for all the world to see its inner workings.
The same with nuclear weapons the effects were so horrible that the populations of both sides will never tolerate their open use.
The first ever use of nuclear weapons at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was so terrible that no one wants to see that again.
Like all acts of genocide the Americans tried to keep it secret, and banned all reporters from the nuclear bombed region, so that the full horror of their crime was kept secret from the world.
No matter the cost to themselves, no matter the level of repression inflicted, the Russian people will storm the Kremlin and and physically tear Putin and his guard to pieces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WretINpCzO0
Pat+O’Dea, the british first used chemical weapons in Iraq
The British also used chemical weapons against rebellious Pashtun Tribes in Afghanistan.
Genocide is in the tool box of all imperialist and wannabe imperialist powers.
Martyn, you are painting a dystopian scenario here. The consequences for Russia dropping a nuclear weapon are so dire that Putin would not dare. The Black Sea fleet would be blown out of the water and all Russian forces in Ukraine incinerated. Russia itself may be targeted with conventional weapons.
Finally you get something right, your first sentence. Russian nuclear doctrine and law confirms this, no first use. Anybody who reads widely will know that the US abandoned the SALT years back and that Russia has called for it to recommence. The US idea was that they could develop defence against ICBMs which apparently they have. That would leave Russia open to a US first strike. Consequently Russia decided on hypersonic delivery that can’t be stopped.
This is total madness, both sides need to accept MAD is the status quo, and get back to SALT.
You are full of doom & gloom this morning. The situation you describe is possible although I suspect that the Chinese & maybe even the Iranians are motivated by financial considerations & possible internal dissent to hopefully prevent the worst result possible. I guess we will find out soon although I suspect that the end result will be that the USA ends up with more control & a restriction of liberty worldwide.
The trouble with apologists for Russian imperialism like yourself Bonnie, is that, you are so one-eyed in your hatred of American imperialism, that you see American imperialism as the only evil in the world.
Your one-eyed hatred of western imperialism sees the impending defeat of Russian imperialism as a bad thing. Whereas I see it as a good thing. The defeat of any imperialist is something to be celebrated and championed by the people of the world.
In my opinion, the conclusive defeat of Russian imperialism at the hand of the Ukraine and Russian people will be a setback for all imperialists, including here in the West.
Slava Ukraine.
Where Pat is your condemnation of US Imperialism? Spell it out.
Russian imperialist??? Where about is this beside invading Ukraine which really isn’t imperialism? Sounds like you Pat+O’Dea are an apologist for US imperialist.
The Monroe Doctrine
US President James Monroe infamously declared all of South America a “US sphere of influence.”
The Russian Monroe Doctrine and all the ‘Near Abroad’ Russian Federation “sphere of influence”
Wikipedia:
In the political language of Russia and some other post-Soviet states, the term near abroad refers to the independent republics that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Increasing usage of the term in English is connected to assertions of Russia’s right to maintain significant influence in the region.[92][93][94] Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the region to be a component of Russia’s “sphere of influence”, and strategically vital to Russian interests.[94] The concept has been compared to the Monroe Doctrine.[92]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_imperialism#Contemporary_Russian_imperialism
Why would China attack Taiwan? Taiwan is not attacking mother China. China’s military attack capabilities will be focused on unfriendly western forces. Also they will be ready to support their good friend Russia.
https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/photo/map-russian-empire-1914
Russia’s impending defeat in Ukraine is another reason China will not try to invade Taiwan.
Russia’s set back in Ukraine must have given any wannabe Chinese imperialist pause for thought.
A rolling invasion over flat land border in Ukraine, proven troublesome for Russia. Would be easier than invading a mountainous island with a sea border and difficult rugged coastline plus the same sort of united hostile reception from the population that the Russians received in Ukraine. Even the most belligerent superpower would be worried about such a prospect.
The death toll on both sides of such a conflict would be horrendous. Would the Chinese people tolerate fratricide on such a scale?
Would the Beijing regime be hollowed out by internal dissent, much as the Kremlin regime is being hollowed out right now?
The age where governments could send millions to slaughter each other for geopolitical aims is coming to an end.
Slava Ukraine
Where Pat is your condemnation of US Imperialism?????????
My record speaks for itself. PYM member, protested Vietnam war, Protested nuclear war ship visits, protested against US invasion of Iraq, protested US invasion and New Zealand involvement in Afghanistan. Kia Ora Gaza member, crossed into Gaza in defiance of the Zionist and US sanctioned blockade of that city to deliver aid to the Palestinians.
I stand by my record of opposing US imperialism.
To be applauded. I’m not hearing anything re US imperialism in Europe / Ukraine. Can’t have it both ways, either you are anti imperialist or you are not.
Would this have happened on Trump’s watch – no.
Notice how the old coot’s minders don’t seem to want to come to the negotiating table. They actively want this war.
What wouldn’t happen Frank? Putin would not have invaded or Trump would have said help yourself Vlad ( I get a boner just looking at you shirtless on a horse)? I be assume you mean the later.
I assume
It is essentially about Arctic undersea resources. Human lives are just “colateral damage”.
Drawing a bit of a long bow there LB?
Ukraine is fighting for their independence, from Russian domination.
Russia is fighting for colonial conquest and domination of Ukraine.
Where the hell does the Arctic undersea resources come into it?
Not about Arctic resources but it is about Ukraine’s massive energy reserves of oil and gas and some coal, in the South and East. Ukraine has the second? largest gas reserves in the world. Also, in a world where climate change brings about global food production pressure, capturing the European breadbasket doesn’t hurt either.
I think Putin’s intentions are imperialist in a wider sense, however Ukraine is the stepping stone to energy domination of Europe and therefore almost unfettered Russian influence. So imperialist in a sense.
Iran is a military super-power it has the capacity to defend itself and Israel even though it is a formidable army will be foolish to try and attack Iran. Also Iran proxy in Lebanon ‘Hezbollah’ will attack Israel’s Dimona Nuclear facilities in the Negev desert and its cities like Haifa, Tel Avi, Petah Tikva , Central District, Ashkelon, Ber sheba, Or Yehuda, etc… And Iran doesn’t need Russia help to build a nuclear weapon they’ve had the capacity for decades but choose not to possess ‘WMDS’ because its against their religion.
And Russia isn’t losing. They have changed their tactics and have entered a new phase to their SMO and are upping their game by knocking out Ukraines power grids which they were urged by their Russian citizens to initiate at the beginning of this SMO and they’ve deployed their 300,000 new recruits into the arena.
Shills for the ‘MIC’ or the corrupt ‘collective west’ claiming that by stating the truth that I get labeled as a Putin paid puppets is a cop-out and deny the inevitable that this SMO is gonna be ova real soon and it won’t be the Ukrainian that will be the victors who have actually been the pawns in this saga since the overthrow of their democratically elected president ‘Viktor Yanukovych’ in 2014.
“I think the battle for Kherson will be the flash point where a tactical field nuke is used on the advancing Ukrainian forces.
Putin will sacrifice Kherson on the alter of his ego.” MB
if it’s about ego.
Nobody wants to be the biggest arsehole in human history, not even Vladimir Putin.
Putin isn’t going to jack shitski.
He or Russia aren’t under any direct threat. He could pull out of Ukraine tomorrow and little would change for him and his inner- circle of mobsters. They would be insulated and carry on with their corrupt high life style.
However, release a nuke, even if only a tactical LND, the whole scenario changes significantly. Now the risk to the decadence and opulence they have become so accustomed to suddenly comes under direct threat.
The beloved Kremlin, the luxurious dachas, uber yachts, super cars, expensive hookers, all potentially will be kaputski.
Will they put everything on the line with the introduction of nukes. Hell shitski nyet.
They love their expensive hookers.
It is highly unlikely Putin would use a tactical nuke over Kherson. The Russians have almost certainly factored in that they will lose Kherson, all that part on the west of the Dnieper River.
Would he use a tactical nuke to defend Crimea? That certainly is much more possible, though I imagine Russia considers it can defend Crimea with conventional forces. There are natural defence lines that make it relatively easy to defend Crimea.
One of the strategic challenges for NATO will be to dissuade the Ukrainians from even trying to invade Crimea.
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