Panic should be setting in for National

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The last two polls should worry National.

Roy Morgan had tham at 35.5 while Taxpayer’s Union Curia Poll had them at 34%.

These are both down from the highs Luxon’s Honeymoon had projected the into of 40% and 39%.

It follows after Luxon’s Te Puke via Hawaii blunder and his constant u-turn blunders where he gets caught out on detail that underpins his justifications for change.

His desire to punish teenage beneficiaries misread the middle and his flakiness under the big ball always underwhelms.

I think Jacinda will smash him during the campaign. Despite some of the worst media and press they’ve received since coming to power alongside extreme economic problems looming, Labour are still solid mid 30s, that’s extraordinary.

I think National’s ceiling is 35%, their challenge is to stop ACT being in double figures while trying to win the middle, something they are finding very difficult to achieve.

Worst case scenario for National is an ACT at 15%, that leaves National in the very low 30s.

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I think David Seymour will be dazzling on the campaign trail despite his race war inducing conflict politics.

The rapid polarisation of NZ politics means there isn’t much middle left for National to hollow out with empty words and false promises, a truth Labour are finding our right now.

National and ACT won’t be able to get to 51% on their own, they will need NZ First getting over 5% or the TOP leader winning Ilam and bringing in a few MPs off the coat tailing.

Remember, Luxon was elected not because he was the best candidate, but because Judith Collins hate club pack voted against Simon Bridges.

That is becoming clearly apparent now.

Luxon will be removed as leader if National doesn’t win the next election.

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159 COMMENTS

  1. The truth is that this country can not afford Adern and her band of simpletons at the wheel for another 3 years.
    Luxon may we’ll be crap but I’m sorry but at this point simply ANYTHING is better than Adern. I would earnestly welcome back Muldoon if it were the only way to rid us of Adern.

    • Yes Jays, the next election is a depressing prospect. As I see it, NZ has some serious problems that only a genuine left-wing government is likely to make a dent in – we have a growing underclass racked by poverty, family dysfunction, educational underachievement and crime. But the Ardern government has proved unwilling or unable to tackle these problems in earnest. So they need to be ejected at the next opportunity, because they are actively exacerbating another suite of problems – the capture of our institutions by woke identity politics, and the resulting fragmentation of NZ society. In the present age, only a right-wing government is likely to address this second suite of problems in earnest, because the contemporary left is besotted with identity politics. But the problem for NZ voters is there is no serious conservative party in this country. National are the party of business, and business is increasingly woke. ACT are classical liberals, not conservatives, and I’m no fan of their economic policies. But at least the current leadership of ACT will have no truck with race-based policies, and has put forward the sensible idea of abolishing the identity-based ministries.

      • Pope Punctilious II, But at least the current leadership of ACT will have no truck with race-based policies, and has put forward the sensible idea of abolishing the identity-based ministries.

        What is these Race Based Policies?????

        • National won’t rule out Act policy that would see ministries axed
          https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/05/10/national-wont-rule-out-act-policy-that-would-see-ministries-axed/

          Under Act’s alternative budget released this week, it would abolish the Māori Development Minister, Ministry for Pacific Peoples, Ministry for Women, Ministry for Ethnic Communities, and the Human Rights Commission.

          But Stephen….wait, there’s more!

          13 months till 2023 NZ election – The Daily Blog full 360 degree battlefield special By Martyn Bradbury -September 11, – ACT are good for 10%-15% on plus 1 electorate on Election Day.2022

          https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/09/11/14-months-till-2023-nz-election-the-daily-blog-full-360-degree-battlefield-special/

          ACT are good for 10%-15% on plus 1 electorate on Election Day.

          That’s just the start…

          Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
          Interest back on all student loans
          No Kiwsaver subsidy
          Cancel winter energy payment
          Dump all climate crisis legislation
          no more best start payments for families with new borns
          cut welfare payments
          no tax credits for research and development
          cuts to working for families
          $7b a year cut in public services
          Abolish Maori seats
          Oh and ankle bracelets on [predominantly deprived Maori children], don’t forget that!

          This is Romper Stomper Hard Right insanity that makes Qanon look reasonable and because there is no way National can win without ACT, every vote to National empowers ACT.

          Careful for what you wish for Stephen

    • It’s OK, Jays, when you vote your hapless FARQ and VFF, Destiny and the 4 Umbrellas, you’ll get what you deserve.
      And it will be way worse than Muldoon, or the Ruth Richardson years.
      An alliance of my namesake Luxon, Seymour, Tamaki, Winston, New Conservatives, White Power Arps and Alp.
      An ungovernable shit-show of epic proportions, God help us all.

    • What’s more interesting is Jacinda hasn’t done anything scandalous herself. Sure she’s surrounded by scandal but she’s remained steady in her convictions.

      We can’t give up someone like Jacinda just cause her party is full of shit cunts. The whole parliament is loaded with shit cunts!

      You’ll need better reasons than trauma amulets to roll Jacinda. Not happening.

  2. You may well be correct.
    What astonishes me is how anyone could vote Labour?
    They have not fulfilled their election promises the wealthy are wealthier and the poor poorer.
    To deliver for the people struggling we need a strong economy and Labour are incapable of doing that.
    I’m a strong advocate for helping those that are struggling.
    For some reason many on the left think those on the right don’t care.That’s wrong.

      • But Peter that’s exactly what Labour have done?
        Largest transfer of wealth to the wealthy under their time in office.

    • I am sure there are people “on the right” that care Bob. Question is what does that have to do with anything National have said in terms of ideas? I have heard tax cuts that don’t help, attacking minimum wage increases, “bottom feeders”, and the classic ambulance at the bottom of the cliff…’tough on crime’ especially for youth (rather than any real acknowledgement of the factors that lead to it). Completely agree Labour are putting band aids on gaping wounds but National will use the same first aid kit, at best, and ACT will probably go for amputation.

  3. Should it?
    I’m not voting for the Nats but Labour is a tragedy.
    If the government doesn’t change on the appalling track record of the current shitshow then there will be many people leaving these shores and no, NZ or even Aotearoa will not be better off.

  4. One of Labour’s biggest problems is that they continue to underwhelm, if not atually disappoint, almost everywhere you look. I wish it were different, but it’s not. it is a long time (in politics ) until the election, plenty of time for more wheels to fall off and for some opposition party to be gifted a stick with which they can inflict damaging beatings which might be what causes more voters to abandon Labour. Also, still time for them to pull off something truly progressive though, eh? How likely is that, given the record of the last five years?

    • Just a question on delivery or lack of.
      Who promised to build a new hospital in Dunedin and didn’t and who promised to build it and is?

      • “Less nuttier than FARQ, VFF, Destiny and the 4 Horsemen of the Umbrellas”, could be a good slogan for National or ACT.
        “More popular than National and ACT” could be a good slogan for FARQ, VFF, Destiny and the 4 Horsemen of the Umbrellas.

        Win-win slogans for the far-cough-right!

  5. Martyn
    Fact is, the country needs a lot of the ACT type policies to fix some of the sit going down right now. Lots of their ideas are very practical…and will stop the habit of spend spend spend spend spend spend…on fuck all.

    • Sour Kraut, Seymour like using racial talking points like ‘race based’ ‘practicing apartheid’ to get the bigoted Pakeha on board and you knowit as I do that there are plenty of them (yous) in our country.

      His dog whistling isn’t new in our politics which has been around since we’ve had an elected parliament in our country. Sounds like ‘woke identity politics’ don’t yah think?

    • You mean like these policies Sour Kraut?

      National won’t rule out Act policy that would see ministries axed
      https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/05/10/national-wont-rule-out-act-policy-that-would-see-ministries-axed/

      Under Act’s alternative budget released this week, it would abolish the Māori Development Minister, Ministry for Pacific Peoples, Ministry for Women, Ministry for Ethnic Communities, and the Human Rights Commission.

      But Stephen….wait, there’s more!

      13 months till 2023 NZ election – The Daily Blog full 360 degree battlefield special By Martyn Bradbury -September 11, – ACT are good for 10%-15% on plus 1 electorate on Election Day.2022

      https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/09/11/14-months-till-2023-nz-election-the-daily-blog-full-360-degree-battlefield-special/

      ACT are good for 10%-15% on plus 1 electorate on Election Day.

      That’s just the start…

      Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
      Interest back on all student loans
      No Kiwsaver subsidy
      Cancel winter energy payment
      Dump all climate crisis legislation
      no more best start payments for families with new borns
      cut welfare payments
      no tax credits for research and development
      cuts to working for families
      $7b a year cut in public services
      Abolish Maori seats
      Oh and ankle bracelets on [predominantly deprived Maori children], don’t forget that!

      This is Romper Stomper Hard Right insanity that makes Qanon look reasonable and because there is no way National can win without ACT, every vote to National empowers ACT.

      Careful for what you wish for Sour Kraut

      • Gone quiet again Sour Kraut?
        Feigning “…”No understandee zee Inglish?”
        Your right-wing 2ic David Seymour wants to rip the heart out of a caring New Zealand.
        I can understand your alt-right-wing reticence Sour Kraut!

  6. National we’re an absolute disaster for New Zealand during their 9 years when last in power and the country was never ad divided as it was back then. How anyone could vote for them and take our country back decades is beyond me. Of course there are a few loyalists who don’t care and it is utterly false to believe a right wing government help the poor and socially compromised. The evidence is overwhelming.

    • It’s all perceptive Bert. National were so bad they kept getting re elected. If NZfirst hadn’t gone with labour it would have been a fourth term as National as a party won the majority. Labour have improved nothing in five years. Jacinda is a figurehead PM who speaks (lies) well. There will be another useless minority government next time whoever gets in. If Jacinda wins you can celebrate Bert but will you, Martyn and the rest of the left really be winners.

      • Let’s get one thing straight. Jacinda is a perfectly pleasant human being. No debate there. That’s where it ends unfortunately.

      • New View, tread very carefully on PM’s and lies or is that your perspective?
        NZ First went with Labour because as Winston quite rightly said, neoliberalism National promoted had created a divided country, a have and have not society. National could not form a government under MMP, when will you learn.

          • BJK. So what does Winston stand for. He’s changed sides with every election and this coming election would be no different. This is why I don’t like MMP. It’s meaningless as far as quality government is concerned.

        • Bert. Peter’s joined labour more out of spite in my opinion. If he chose Labour because he didn’t like neoliberalism and thought Labour would make real systemic change he got it very wrong. If NZ1st get 5% this time they will likely choose National out of spite also. No where here do I see anything good for the country. Just BS MMP. Same with the Greens and the Maori party. Big talking puppets. As for calling Jacinda a liar. If Luxon or in the past Key, broke a promise, back tracked on policy or used their oratory skills to avoid public scrutiny and transparency, you would be the first person to call them liars Bert. Because of that I’m not worried about your little tread carefully threat. Yes I don’t like MMP. To me It’s BS but I have to suck it up and put up with it.

        • Neoliberalism National? You do know who gave neoliberalism to New Zealand right Bert?

          No, you clearly dont. Stop embarrassing yourself.

          • To be sure, to be sure MickeyBoyle, but you really are showing your ignorance of ACT and National’s 30 year alliance, from at least 1993 to the present day. And the only reason they used Labour from 1984 to 1990, was because of National’s rogue dictator, Rob Muldoon.

            You need to read Richard Prebble’s “I’ve been thinking” and realise that ACT and National have way more in common for 30 years than ACT and Labour EVER did for 6 years

            So much so, that even a basic Wiki search will give you this:

            “In 1993, Douglas co-founded the Association of Consumers and Taxpayers with Derek Quigley. Douglas and Quigley intended the Association to serve as a pressure-group promoting the Douglas economic policies”
            Since then:
            Don Brash (2011) leader of National and ACT
            John Banks (2012–2014) leader of ACT and cup of tea with John Key
            …to the present alliance between ACT’s David Seymour and successive National govts.

            I know someone has told you this before MickeyBoyle. Don’t be thick and share this shit again.

            But, selective memory goes hand in glove with you right-wingers. Tories – Margaret Thatcher, Roger Douglas, Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev – right wingers sold off public assets to line the pockets of the wealthy and introduced GST to rob and economically suppress the poor even more.

            MickeyBoyle: Neoliberalism National? You do know who gave neoliberalism to New Zealand right Bert?

            And you definitely know who keeps it going in New Zealand from 1993 to the present now and into the future bert?

            The current National Party and its unholy alliances, year after year with ACT…..

            …… now you clearly know MickeyBoyle….you have the evidence …so….
            Stop embarrassing yourself MickeyBoyle.

            • Douglas was a Labour minister, and Labour continue on with neoliberalism just as much as any other party.

              But you keep trying to convince yourself that it was someone else’s fault lol.

              • You Irish aren’t renowned for your insight MickeyBoy.

                6 Years ACT in Labour 1984 to 1990
                32 years ACT WITH National 1990 to 2022

                Simple Maths MickeyBoy

                Can’t simplify it any simpler! I can’t draw a diagram for you in a blog. Ask your kids, if you have any to explain the Maths for this.

                6 vs 32 (and still going)

                Get your head out of your arse MB!

          • Yes MB the Lange Labour Government introduced neoliberalism.
            BJK why didn’t/haven’t Labour Government’s since dumped neoliberalism?

    • Humens are strange people . We both lived and worked through Nationals 9 years and Labours 5 . Where as you saw disaster I saw mainly success now I see disaster and you see success.
      I am sure that both of us have been let down by some of the the actions of our respective teams and for a time I found my team hard to support due to their leader but I am backing them again.
      Interesting times but we can share our distain for Hoskings and anti vaxxers

    • National were a disaster yet all key metrics such as inequality, debt, inflation, emissions, housing affordability, gang numbers, hospital waiting times, elective surgery numbers, emergency response times and the social housing waiting list are considerably worse under this governments reign.

      Jeez you’re a clever guy eh Bertie. Well done you!

  7. We are effectively 12 months out from the election A LOT can happen during this time. Te Reo won’t win an election however elections are very rarely won. The covid election was an outlier.

    Labour’s problem is a lack of delivery and the covid truth leaking out slowly.

    After the Northland debacle they better hope another truth bomb doesn’t hit regarding Delta getting into the country.

  8. There is plenty of time to go before the elections and these are unsettled times .Every day we we see the abject failure of Labour on so many fronts it is hard to believe they are so bad at running this great country. The homeless in Rotorua abused but Minister Woods dismiss their plight lawlessness as we have never seen so bad with gangs and young children lost to society.The possible lose of local power over water and buildings .
    The normal voting public feel so let down by Jacinda and crew that they doubt themselves to choose another party in the fear they will not do a better job. It will be interesting to see how the right fair in the local elections which will give people a heads up of where the country is heading

    • They’re the fucking same ‘Lab rats’ and the ‘nasty Nats’ it’s a sham they both have their ‘PMC’ regiments ready to be slaves to the ruling class!!

      • Ahhh Bert, from the Labour website, how very loyal of you!
        MORE homeless than in 2017
        MORE children in poverty than 2017
        LESS houses built (notice you have never posted on the John Minto posts about the terrible housing figures…guess sometimes defending the indefensible becomes pointless, afterall the statistics and facts are against you (and Labour and St Jacinda)

        • Can you deny any of these accomplishments? I didn’t think so but it suits your far right extremism not to promote left wing success. If you were a dog, you’d be a pit bull.
          I guess you can’t take the mongrel out of the pit bull.

          • Don’t bother answering Im right bert.
            He/she/they is/are too thick to:
            (a)use an apostrophe in his pseudonym
            (b)ever give any evidence to support his National Party shill comments.
            (c) ……
            ….sorry bert, can’t be bothered with Im right, because he/she/they never is/are. Just another Cam Slater acolyte toxic Tory troll.

                • Yes bert, im rightcould be Cam, but he isn’t interested in women, apart from rock-throwing practice.

                  Because, here’s what Cam and Zippy Williams, and by right-wing, DP association im right have written about women. What woman in their right (or left) minds would want to associate with these misogynist National and ACT Party slime of the worst order.:

                  January 10, 2013
                  ————————-
                  Jordan Williams, 1/10, 10:11am

                  women; if they didn’t have a fanny between their legs they’d have a bounty on their heads…

                  …Cameron Slater, 1/10, 10:13am

                  if they didn;t have cunts we’d chuck rocks at them.

                  And these sad, policy-maker “influencers”, pond-scum specimens of National Party/ACT are representatives and poster boys for Dirty Politics.

                  Dirty Politics attack dogs, lifting their hind legs and pissing on women, and good-hearted, socially-responsible kiwis.

                  Pissing on Kiwis who care about fairness, kindness and those less fortunate than themselves. Pissing on kiwis who care about the planet and fresh drinkable water, with every post they make!

                  Pissing on Maori aspirations for turangawaewae, mokopuna, dignity, tāonga and tangata https://natlib.govt.nz/records/22703273

                  Cam Slater (National) and
                  Jordan Williams (Taxpayers Union) – anti-women, anti-Maori, anti-Kiwi-social-humanity.

                  Im right; Cam Slater; Jordan Williams: Pond-scum of the National Party

                  – Making National Lose Itself!

                  Go on … im right …keep having a go at me … I’ve had three children and have worked with psychiatric patients. None of your misogynistic filth, nor Zippy Jordan’s, nor Cam’s comes close to what I’ve been through.

                  You’re puerile little right-wing pissants, not worthy the time spent outlining your lack of pedigree. Right-wing haters.

      • OH BOY! I CAN’T WAIT FOR MORE EXPANSION OF FREE TRADE AND CLAIMS OF ‘INCREASES’ IN VARIOUS METRICS WHICH ARE NOT ADJUSTED FOR POPULATION OR INFLATION!

    • Funny the polls at least the last two don’t agree with all the Jacinda bashing on this site. All do we dis the polls or do we only dis them when National is not doing so good.

  9. I think 2023 will be the election of the rise of minor parties. ACT, TPM, and NZF will all do ok, and perhaps TOP. Don’t think a Christian/ antivaxx party will go far, the “optics” of how flakey they are, and coupled with a lack of economic policies, will have any sane voter not seriously considering them.

  10. I think a lot of you want some sort of Kamikaze David Lange government to reverse the last 30 years. Sorry it just doesn’t exist.

    • @ds
      Then National and ACT, who have had a close alliance since 1990, need to pull back from it.

      But they won’t because they are all about being mouthpieces for Rogernomics and have been joined at the hip, and neoliberal lip ever since 1990, till now. They’ll go on into the future. BJ King above gave a good history of the parasitic/symbiotic relationship between Banks, Brash Douglas and cups of tea between the two right wing scourge of NZ/AO.

  11. Funny the polls at least the last two don’t agree with all the Jacinda bashing on this site. All do we dis the polls or do we only dis them when National is not doing so good.

  12. Funny the polls at least the last two don’t agree with all the Jacinda bashing on this site. Or do we dis the polls or do we only dis them when National is not doing so good.

  13. ” Panic should be setting in for National ”

    And LINO with its middle class managerial offspring if we could just drive down the two party neo liberal stranglehold.

    • No need to worry Mosa, Labour, or National won’t get in, according to two of the latest polls:

      “VFF and FARQ off, the chart in Counterspin poll shows clear leaders” (Poll count: 503+/- 3 people):
      Alp 52%; Arps 14%; David Seymour 12%; Jacob Chansley 13%; Hanna Spierer 6%; Trump: 6%; QAnon 7%)

      “Destiny and the 4 horsemen of the Umbrella poll – Hannah Hallelujah” (God’s infinity polling +/- 3):
      Hannah Tamaki 52%; the Four Horsemen of the Umbrellas 12% each.

      • Oh your polls are bulldust Polly!

        Your first poll adds up to 110%. Even given a +/- 3 people swing, you can’t have 110% in a poll – polls don’t work like that!

        And the second poll result, the Kantar poll http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/5/406289 said this:

        “Less than 3 years later, Vision New Zealand recently polled 1.2% in the August 2022, Kantar TV1 Political Poll.

        “While I was a little surprised that we polled, I am not shocked because we have been visible since the last election as we stood from day 1 against the Mandates.

        You can’t jump from 1.2% to 52% in 12 days?

        I suppose you’re going to say that because mandates are going, that VFF and FARQ and FNZ got rid of mandates and that’s why they are jumping in the polls.

        Your polls are poppycock Polly

        • I don’t think that you’re right, Im right.

          I haven’t ever watched Polly’s Counterspin polls – and only ever saw a 3.2 second soundbite about Counterspin on One News on the day of Alp’s and Spierer’s arrest – that was 3.2 seconds longer than enough for me. That 3.2 second soundbite was way more than enough of their, and your right-wing tripe, I’m right.

          But, Im right, should give Polly the benefit of the doubt, that he/she/they obviously has, and has seen their figures. I know it’s hard to write down facts and figures if you have got recording facility for TV programmes.

          I’ve given up on taking any store in any biased, or partisan polls, which are flawed, and Polly’s poll is just as valid as Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll: August 2022.https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/taxpayers_union_curia_poll_august_2022

          If you’re going to call one poll “bulldust” Im right then you undermine all. And that’s OK by me Im right, even though you’re almost always, still wrong.

          What century are you from Im right? Who use the word ‘bulldust’?

        • I see they’ve got Trump on their list too bert? Even if Trump got citizenship here, I don’t think he can stand in elections in NZ in 2023? There could be some wrangling to have this happen, after all Todd Muller was a MAGA-fan.

          I just did a quick tally up and they’ve got 110% in their poll – FFS. Typical right-wingers, can’t add. It’s a bullshit, imaginary poll bert, some right-winger doing a bit of “I’ve been thinking!”, or the other thing ending in ‘-ing’. Polling!

  14. Nearly 40 years ago ;if not more, those that wished to enact the most right wing economic policies recognised that the most likely political vehicles for getting the policies they wanted put in place were the traditional left wing political parties. Labour in the UK and here and in Aus , and the democrats in the US. Since the era of rogernomics these parties have consistently outrighted the traditional conservative parties without most of their faithful left/socialist / unionised labour supporters ever recognising or being prepared to admit how they have been had. They are still being taken for a ride. Muldoon’s national was ever so much more socialist, left than any subsequent labour administration has been or will ever be.
    D J S

  15. BOB THE LAST…no LINO has treated her ‘followers’ of the middle class well, covid payouts, no CGT etc etc it’s the people who actually need a ‘labour party’ she’s spit on.

  16. BJ King, is he though? A kiwi? He comes across as an uneducated pommy toff import bot to me. He seems to know sfa about kiwi history and swa about anything actually. Jmo

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