So we are actively now acknowledging that the war in the Ukraine will be stretching into next year…
Russia-Ukraine war: Russian forces set to be exhausted by January 2023
Russia is a ticking time bomb. And President Vladimir Putin is being wound up. So now the world is waiting for his invasion of Ukraine to explode in his face.
Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia has only enough fuel, ammunition and military equipment to sustain another seven months of all-out effort. Come January, Putin’s forces will be exhausted.
“The active phase should go to the maximum decline by the end of the year,” says Ukraine’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.
In Judo, you have submission holds. Moves where you place the other in intense pain until they tap out.
I fear that is what Putin is doing to the West.
It is clear now that Putin’s real danger is not in the pain he is about to inflict, but the pain he can endure.
I called him invading the Ukraine after the Kazakstan coup attempt which the Russian’s concluded was another Western attempt at hybrid war.
While Kyiv is symbolic, I think the real goal here is Odessa.
Putin is clearly looking to legacy and has planned for a conflict for at least 7 years.
Putin’s mentor Alexander Dugin has argued for the invasion of Ukraine…
Russian intellectual Alexander Dugin is the main architect of the neo-Russian imperialism called Eurasianism. In a series of lectures, articles, and books, Dugin has sought to “rehabilitate fascism in Russia.” He has borrowed from obscure 19th and 20th century political theories, adopted a sympathetic interpretation of Nazism that attempts to separate it from the Holocaust, and sought to thwart what he and many Russians believe is a conspiracy led by the United States to contain Russia. Dugin has called for a “Russian spring” and the domination of Europe through Ukraine.
…those who surround Putin all believe this grand destiny narrative…
Emboldened by perceptions of the West’s terminal decline, no one in this group loses much sleep about the prospect of an open-ended confrontation with America and Europe. In fact, the core members of this group would all be among the main beneficiaries of a deeper schism.
Consider Putin’s war cabinet, which is the locus of most decision-making. It consists of Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Security Council; Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the FSB (the main successor agency of the KGB intelligence service); Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service; and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Their average age is 68 years old and they have a lot in common. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin famously described as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, was the defining episode of their adult lives. Four out of five have a KGB background, with three, including the president himself, coming from the ranks of counterintelligence. It is these hardened men, not polished diplomats like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who run the country’s foreign policy.
In recent years, members of this group have become very vocal. Patrushev and Naryshkin frequently give lengthy interviews articulating their views on global developments and Russia’s international role. According to them, the American-led order is in deep crisis thanks to the failure of Western democracy and internal conflicts spurred by the promotion of tolerance, multiculturalism and respect for the rights of minorities.
…I think the cabal see themselves as part off 1000 year Christian tradition and that this war is for the soul of Russia.
We don’t appreciate the power and importance and motivator Russian Orthodox Christianity plays out in all of this.
In 988AD, Vladimir the Great, whom Putin takes his name from, mass baptised 1000 Russians at the River Nee-Proh in what has become the founding spiritual moment in Orthodox Russian Christianity as the moment Russia became Christian and led to a cultural narrative structure that Moscow is the third Rome and was a homeland for Christianity.
What isn’t widely known is that Putin himself is a very staunch Russian Orthodox Christianand that he has used the Russian Orthodox Church as an enormous control mechanism over the Russian people.
Putin has spent billions rebuilding the Churches smashed down by Communism and uses his relationship with the Church for political advantage. It was the Orthodox Church who first praised Putin for annexing Crimea, a region with much religious importance for the Church.
Recently the Ukrainian branch of the Orthodox Church severed ties with the Russian branchbecause they felt Putin was having too much influence over it.
If Moscow is the third Rome, Kyiv is the second Jerusalem.
Putin sees himself as part of a long line of Christian Defenders of the true faith.
A new angry white Christianity is erupting here with intense violence, and misreading the drivers of Putin means we will fail at stopping him.
If Putin is doing this for God and the soul of Mother Russia, the dead are evidence of faith, not failure!
Next stop will be Bosnia/Herzegovina…
As The World Watches Ukraine, Possibility Of Disintegration Looms In Bosnia
…in 2016 Putin started building a Doomsday bunker.
In 2017 he saw Dr Strangelove for the first time ever with Director Oliver Stone.
Last year he completed his Doomsday Bunker.
I fear Putin wants to use an extreme event of violence to terrify NATO into freezing. I think that event will either be a battlefield Nuke, chemical weapons attack or bio-weapon.
After that event he will get the Ukraine to agree to anything and I think intends to isolate Russia from the West via cultural and Econ omicron sanctions while he spreads chaos around the world as a major destabiliser.
I think Putin sees himself as a champion of the true Christian faith and the Lord of Chaos. Russia wins when global order collapses.
The real economic pain of the sanctions against Russia haven’t hit us yet, but they are coming.
$5 a litre petrol prices and $10 a loaf bread will cause massive damage here in NZ, imagine how it will impact the rest of the world?
The last time wheat prices were this high they caused a bread price destabilisation throughout the Middle East that sparked the Spring Uprising. Indeed the Collectivisation of the Ukrainian wheat harvests in the early 1930s had a knock on effect to the economic down turn that resulted in World War 2.
Putin is willing to take enormous economic pain right now to ultimately derail the global economy by the end of the year.
We want to keep telling ourselves Putin blundered, but if he is sick, if he sees this as part of a greater narrative, then him bullying his military into starting a war he knew would cost them mass loss of life to enable the conditions to start a much larger destabilisation campaign is an open question.
Fear the masochist who can switch into sadism.
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Putin and most of the world expected Ukraine to fold like fresh Swiss cheese. They didn’t – the long game is all Putin has.
Prediction: The Ukraine war lasts until 2024.Trump who doesn’t give 2 fucks a out the American military industrial complex ends it with 1 meeting.
Hey Frankie I have a prediction too.
Putin dies or is already dead end of war.
Trump is a dead man walking given what lies ahead for him.
The first is a valid assumption Bertie, the second wishful thinking. There is going to A LOT of butthurt when Trumpy wins in a landslide in 2024.
if trump runs again, and i mean IF, he will lose the popular vote again, and will barely get the electoral college votes, so hardly a landslide on the cards…
Perpetual war us a far simpler affair when supply lines are short.
It’s all asymmetric. The mistake is assuming Putin is a big bad. Bad he is, big! Putin is not.
Even though Russia holds the largest landmass and after losing the cold war and territory, the Russian economy is a shadow of its former self. Big, Russia is not.
Bad ass? Most definitely.
Prediction the war lasts to 2024, no. The pain at the front is so high that there wont be a Ukrainian army next month. Expect Zhelensky to be ousted by coup.
As for Trump, yes he would end it, but he wont get a chance. After the midterms the Republicans will own both Houses and Biden will find himself defending corruption charges relating to Burisma, whilst Hillary will find herself in court over Russiagate.
Fun times.
What if we are wrong indeed?
Brave question, considering these hysterical times.
Just to counter the establishment boot lickers:
https://www.rt.com/russia/555326-germany-poland-ukraine-biolabs/
https://www.rt.com/russia/555333-ukraine-biolabs-inhumane-experiments/
https://www.rt.com/russia/556207-ukraine-biolabs-neglect-corruption/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10825801/Former-Trump-aide-posts-huge-trove-120-000-Hunter-Biden-emails-abandoned-laptop.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ico=taboola_feed_article&ns_mchannel=rss&ico=taboola_feed
Thank you Gin Hag.
Nice to see some material that we never normally get shown.
Amazing how our obedient readers can be amazingly adept at identifying such outlandish material as “Russian propaganda”, yet they never even allow for a moment the thought that the strange accusations of Novichoc poisonings and Gas Attacks in Syria by the ‘evil’ Russians may possibly be equally flimsy propaganda from sources on ‘our side’
As if 5-eyes or the USA have never been guilty of feeding out false information. I remember believing the original accounts of the Tonkin Gulf Incident.
Once bitten, twice shy.
Gin Hag you forgot the 30 tonnes of plutonium and 40 tonnes of enriched uranium at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as stated by the IAEA . Puts a new light on zelenksy’s comment on obtaining nuclear weapons . Imagine the white ISIS guys (azov ) with nukes .
it’s one thing to have the central component of a nuclear bomb, but it’s a whole different ball game to actually build that bomb… At this point, the only country that would actively assist with that process are the USA, and they are fully aware of what it would mean to be caught out by the Russians… Remember earlier this week when the monster Biden was forced to back away from supplying Ukraine with long range missiles by the Europeans, precisely because it would create an escalation that would inevitably lead to a global nuclear conflict? To think that they would then help a bunch of neo nazis to possess nuclear weapons is a fantasy… Even the warmonger Biden isn’t that crazy, yet..
“$5 a litre petrol prices and $10 a loaf bread will cause massive damage here in NZ, imagine how it will impact the rest of the world?”
I bet the *Deep State hyper riche kiwi-as traitors are reconsidering just how tactically financially expedient it was to turn Canterbury’s wheat growing regions into shitting, pissing cowsploitation factories.
* Deep State hyper riche kiwis. They’re The Boys. They’re the ones who manage this cluster fuck and by manage I mean to take what they can, run it into the ground by over exploiting that resource them make a run for it to NYC, Australia, China or where ever else legitimised criminal activities are lauded as sound business practises. Aye Boys?
Putin dared Nato to come and defend Ukraine with boots on the grounds and Nato did not show up.
This war will end when the Ukrainians understand that Nato will happily watch for the Ukraine to disappear with its women/children on exodus and the men fed into the meat grinder, while Russia will always be a neighbor. At that stage some sane Ukrainian will call for the weapons to be laid down.
All Ukrainians in their right minds already are. Nobody wants to die for the genocidal ambitions of Zelensky and his Azov buddies.
At least one video per day is coming out of Ukrainian units (mostly, of the Territorial Defense militia) justifying their retreat and/or promising to no longer fight under the given awful conditions (no heavy weapons, no clear guidance or direction, no medical support, etc. etc.) The cannon-fodder is getting restless.
The Snowball Effect by Jacob Dreizin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JPRQaD8mJk
It’s a shame the pro-war supporters don’t care as much for their soldiers ( not the nazi’s though ), as I do.
I feel sorry for theses guys ,, Two New AFU Units Mutiny And Air Their Grievances Towards Command (Subtitled) https://www.bitchute.com/video/48tEB3GZze6x/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/XjCwE1wIkhgN/
Ordinary Ukrainian soldiers have and are paying the price of living under the most corrupt regime in Europe. That so many Kiwis support the Zhelensky regime is deeply disturbing. That doesn’t mean supporting Russia instead, it means being principled and supporting peace.
Putin has won already! He’s carved out a chunk of the Ukraine the size of the UK and some.
The Russian economy is going gangbusters with an appreciating Ruble and China and India buying up all Russias oil and gas and excess wheat.
This western narrative from Washington is about the only thing that is going to collapse!
He’s already said, “I will stop when the US and the EU stops funding Ukraine”.
He has won already and the 6000 sanctions against Russia have failed to make a dent in the Russian economy. If anything, it’s helped it consolidate its trade relationships with the BRICS+40 nations.
Let’s hope he forgets about lil ole NZ declaring war on Russia.
Like Osama Bin Laden, Putin knows that the west will over react. Dispite spending trillions on war and now a pandemic western elites now will their populations on to spend even more blood and treasure on yet another theoretical political manoeuvre to somehow protect a world order lead by America.
All I want to do is sit back and chill. Watch all the hard and dangerous western worryers fight the good fight from behind their twitter accounts.
Yep, that pretty much my read on it also.
Great comments & so true? The fact is Russia is winning, they’re won the Western Economic sanction War & are winning the Ground War in Ukraine & are seizing Territory in the Donbass & East & established a Landbridge that will encompass the South with Odessa all the way up to Transmistra! Game over!
I am not sure the Ruble is appreciating because of a strong Russian economy. It’s probably not freely ‘floating’
There is high demand for the Ruble, simple as that.
Putin and his federation are smart. Smarter than the west.
Everybody is smarter than the west! Books will be written
on the colossal cock ups of Biden and Boris. Dumb and Dumber.
Every lie in the book has been used, and then some. Idiots.
2 little snippets for the west’s media to swallow:
Russia has 20,000 T72 and T90 Tanks. Lost under 1000 so far.
Plenty left. Ukraine had 2,500 now 99% destroyed.
Russia have sent less than 15% of it’s Troops to this limited war,
again plenty in backup, not that they will need them.
Ukraine is heavily reinforcing with reservists. Old included.
I would say it’s far from “as simple as that”. It’s not like Russians have the freedom to hold other currencies like they used to because of the capital controls in place. As the inflation rate is heading north in Russia( somewhere around 15% now) you watch.
20,000 tanks, maybe. But most of them are not T72’s or T90’s. The T90 is a relatively recent tank, though based on the T72. Only a few hundred were manufactured. The great majority of the 20,000 tanks are T 64’s that have sat in warehouses for the last 30 years.
So the loss of 1,000 tanks is serious, because they are the modern tanks that Russia has manufactured since the end of the Cold War, now 32 years ago. That number would be less than 3,000.
Actually it is free floating, and according to some Russian economists that is too deflationary. Theyve called for intervention to weaken the rouble.
Easy then Nick, just remove the capital controls.
Nice summation Tane. That so many are hoist on the “evil Putin” petard, allowing it to obscure the simple truth of this matter, is extraordinary. Having not only retained Nato after its raisson d’etre evaporated, but expanded it to include former members of the USSR, the US has deliberately exploited those states’ craving for revenge on Russia, for its role in the privations of their recent history, to manufacture this conflict. In effect old Europe is dragging new Europe back to a future of Fascism.
wot? wot? what the devil are you saying sir? c’mon spit it out? were the TDB military strategy dept wrong…well shiver me timbers and god blast your eyes sirrah….
lol
$5/L petrol prices are a choice.
If we had our own refinery- even now being destroyed by the oil companies, despite the fact that WE, THE PEOPLE paid for it- and oil from Iran and Russia and other civilized countries, we’d be paying reasonable prices right now. Sadly, Ardern will never miss a chance to lick the boots (and worse) of her American and ‘israeli’ bosses.
Even when we had our own refineries our prices were high. That’s the result of neoliberal governments.
Proof… Refining NZ shareholders voted to stop refining and argued for Marsden Point to become an import terminal.
The refining company argued that supply has always relied on imports and will not make NZ any more vulnerable than it always has been.
Having said that, the real reason for your post came in your last paragraph, your character assassination of the P.M.
Privatization isn’t a one way street. Any decent leader will nationalize- by force if necessary- what has been privatized. Happening right now in Mexico with the electric grid.
The Refinery Company decided to import NOT the shareholders.
The refinery has never imported already refined fuel until now.
It was a REFINERY it REFINED crude oil .
The decision to import has been a financial disaster.
Refining margins for the last 20 months have been the highest they have been in over 12 years.
The emissions of the refineries we now import from will be counted as NZ’s emissions.Overseas refineries have higher emissions than Marsden Point.
Our emissions will increase.
Labour has trashed the lives and careers of skilled energy workers to look like they are doing something about climate change.
They aren’t.
Our diesel prices would be 80 cents a litre less right now if we still had a refinery.
We had the only hydrocracker in the Pacific.
The only Refinery in the Pacific capable of refining military grade fuel.
So we have nothing to offer the US navy should they need to engage on our behalf with China in the near future.
So far all the imports since the refinery closed have been unusable.
The amount of heat and the distance traveled thru the tropics turns the fuel to sludge.
All the jet fuel filters on the pipeline are fucked and there are no replacement filters available.
Planes will soon not be able to refuel in Auckland.
Wiri is desperately trying to salvage and reuse fuel filters for the Airport.
The diesel tanks that supply Northland are now empty and are not being refilled as the diesel that has arrived is mostly unusable.
Auckland’s supply will be maintained from other ports.
The import decision has been the monumental fuckup it was predicted to be,look forward to our fuel prices NEVER dropping.
And yes this is on Ardern and her government who did nothing to develop the alternatives for the refinery .
We have no biofuel, Z Energy was given away and we are running out of gas.
This all down to Labour’s dumb decisions on energy.
Labour has no energy policy and is too arrogant to communicate with the energy industry.
So as usual Bert you know fuck all . You are are a tedious ignorant Labour troll with nothing of value to contribute to the TDB>
It’s all part of the “globalist’s agenda”, in forcing people off from fossil fuels and instigating “The Great Reset” (which was once considered a conspiracy theory even after they literally used that exact term at WEF/Davos). When Biden stopped the construction of Keystone pipeline in the US, you could already see what the central planners were doing.
Jacinda is very much part of WEF/Davos (i.e. Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, Soros, Angela Merkel, Tony Blair etc), as it patently obvious with her being part of the WEF “Young Global Leaders” (which also includes the likes of Emmanuel Macron (President of France), Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook), Larry Page (Google), etc) . It’s all connected. Resistance is futile.
https://geopolitics.co/2022/02/22/world-economic-forums-young-global-leaders-revealed/
And Trudeau? He and Jacinda are freinds from the Scheab school training.
And, she was president of the International Socialist Youth organisation?
Yep, linked and goes back a few years.
It’s a pity Jacinda isn’t any sort of socialist, but a neoliberal every bit as bad as Roger Douglas (if not worse).
And don’t forget Clayton Cosgrove! Oh, you already have …
“We the people” sold the refinery in the 80’s. How is that Arden’s fault? Doesn’t most refined product (that we import) come from Asian refineries which can actually include Russia crude and UAE? How is that licking Israeli boots?
Not quite right? I have several times read that the Marsden Point refinery could not handle NZ crude, and was dependent on imports of crude.
Many nations have particularly ‘heavy’ or ‘light’ crude. This isn’t a problem. We could be buying heavy crude from Venezuela, Urals crude from Russia, or Iranian crude and mixing it with the local light crude and refining it here, for nice cheap prices. Instead, because Ardern loves the American empire and hates freedom, we get to pay out the **s for garbage foreign petrol diluted with ethanol.
If the balloon goes up, we will be getting bugger-all ships from anywhere.
If the balloon does not go up, we will go on buying as usual.
In terms of this lasting, the goal is not necessarily Odessa but blockade – using it as leverage to end sanctions on Russia as part of any cease-fire.
Wrong again. Russia is NOT blocking the ports.
Putin’s mind rays FORCED the Ukranian regime to …. mine what they claim are their own harbors … and not anchor the mines properly so now they’re floating around the Black Sea.
Makes sense!
Surprising how often such cock-ups happen when amateurs try to practise warfare, It seems to have happened like that in every war in recent history..
Eastern Orthodoxy is more a mystery religion with good relations with Buddhism and Islam, and with little motivation to proselytize along the lines of Western Christianity, particularly the American protestant varieties.
Putin’s philosophy is multipolarity and Eurasianism.
The clearest statement of any sort of an ideological position is the joint statement released with the Chinese just before the Winter Olympics in February.
As for wheat didn’t we grow a lot of it on the Canterbury Plains – a little inferior to Australian wheat for baking but we had bread a sort that was oretty good. But milk-rash took over and opening up to the world and dodgy dealing with the top guys in the art. So dairy and lots of water and drying up the rivers took precedence over wheat. We used to grow good apricots in a handy micrclimate down south that was flooded when building the dam down there. You can’t eat electricity, and only so much dairy while wheat is a staple. But when Ricardo and Antony Giddens and the Uk Tony Blair make moves we dance along with them. Ricardos words are taken out of context and the lean, mean result is sold to us nitwits at the end of the world. The little boy might cry – the Emperor has no clothes on or that idea won’t work, it has failed before because of this and this; but what does he know. They chased WB Sutch round the bramble bush – it’s all a game to them and we are in junior grade, losers.
Everyone has been wrong about Putin right from the get go of this invasion. Putin doesn’t want to occupy the whole country he wants the east and the black sea coast. When he moved on Kiev that was just a feint and it worked,
Zello is a comedian and an actor and it shows. He is basically a weasel
Clearly getting the Donbas and a land bridge bordering the Sea of Asov is worth the lives of 50,000 Russian soldiers (by end on 2022) plus the strengthening of NATO. I wonder if the Russian people will see it that way by the end of the year.
Boy, you’re a fool. I left out the ‘fucken’.
What a loser bunch of armchair military strategists and amatuer geopolitical experts. I can only say, it makes a change from reading armchair experts on epidemiology.
Say what you like Paul (I obviously qualify) but Shona’s comment stands. Perhaps you would consider reading it.
You cut out my apology for personal abuse. Are you losing every principle like a born again christian? The only hope for the people is truth. Your ‘tyrannical’ powers answer up eventually. Which is quick in these days. If I’m too harsh talk to me on email. I too will put off answering you — despite my absolute of my truth here I don’t much like it ‘up me’.
Hope as ever you are well and having fun in the Big Smoke.
Truth is the only current we can rely on, no matter how it impoverishes us temporarily, so 40 years in NZ’s case. Look to Sanders.
You cut out my apology for personal abuse. Are you losing every principle like a born again christian? The only hope for the people is truth. Your ‘tyrannical’ powers answer up eventually. Which is quick in these days. If I’m too harsh talk to me on email. I too will put off answering you — despite my absolute of my truth here I don’t much like it ‘up me’.
Hope as ever you are well and having fun in the Big Smoke.
Truth is the only current we can rely on, no matter how it impoverishes us temporarily, so 40 years in NZ’s case. Look to Sanders.
When I insulted you I meant to say no KGB agent can take seriously the Orthodox Church, thoroughly implanted with their agents. Just more useful idiotry for a dictator. Or, I disagree with your thesis.