The big news this week is not Russia’s claim to be using laser weapons in Ukraine. Instead, it is the surrender of the last defenders of the Azovstal Steel Plant in Mariupol. Surrender of this force is politically and militarily significant, the defence of Azovstal is a thorn in the Putin’s side. While fighting continued in Mariupol, it was difficult for Putin claim victory in the important city and with criticism at home growing after recent military mistakes he needs a ‘win’. The surrender of the last, brave defenders of the steel works is a victory.
Politically Putin, is likely under significant pressure; indicated by his unwillingness to escalate the war effort on Victory Day, the recent explosion of criticism in the Russian blogosphere and most importantly retired Russian colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok’s statements on state television that made international headlines. Khodaryonok is brave, using his platform on a popular news show to tell the truth. He told Russians that they are losing the war, that Russian soldiers are unprofessional and poorly motivated, that the world is rallied against Russia and finally that Russia needs to look for a way out. In short, he did what retired senior officers sometimes need to do, he told the truth.
Militarily, the surrender at the Azovstal Steel Works will free some Russian troops to be deployed elsewhere in the campaign. Most estimates claim that there are 11-12 battalion tactical groups deployed in Mariupol, however this does not mean that this force will be immediately available. The soldiers in Mariupol will be tired and battered from a hard fight. Digging tough defenders out of an underground labyrinth is hard work.
Where these soldiers go will be interesting. Russia’s main effort appears to have switched from attacking Kramatorsk and Sloviansk via Izyum to attacking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the east. Although, Ukraine’s offensive in the north near Kharkov shows signs of slowing down as it reaches the border in the north and the Severskyi-Donets River in the east, it has probably caused the Russians to stop their attack from Izyum on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Russia committed a large force to this area, estimates claim that there are 39-40 battalion tactical groups between Izyum in the south and Belogrod in the north, or about a third of Russia’s total strength in Ukraine.
The Russian campaign is now threatened significantly, with a third of its force ‘fixed’ in position between Belgorod and Izyum so Russia has less combat power available elsewhere in the battle. This creates a dilemma for the Russian command, in that they must choose between using the soldiers released from Mariupol to either:
- Reinforce the advance on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. An operation that if successful will result in the largest encirclement of Ukrainian territory.
- Reinforce the advance on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the east. A more limited operation, with a better chance of success.
- Develop a new attack. Use the forces to either push west from Kherson towards Odessa or north toward Zaporizhzia or to start a strong attack from the south against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Most commentators are predicting that any forces released from Mariupol will be used to support the attack on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Ukraine’s northern offensive’s impact is likely to be significant, forcing the Russians to reassess their strategic objectives and reduce them again.
The impacts may be even more significant because in the south there is interesting activity happening. In recent weeks, two towns north of Mariupol have changed hands and are now in Ukrainian control. Vuhledar, a small coal mining town and Volodymyrivka another small town nearby, both are small and sit on the Kashlagach River. From Voldomyrivka, the southernmost of these towns it is about 16km to a town called Volnovakha.
Volnovakha was a small town, the site of significant battles during World War Two and was destroyed in the recent Russian invasion. However, it is still an important road and rail junction sitting on the H20 motorway, 50km directly north of Mariupol. The strategic significance of Mariupol is well understood, if this area is controlled by Russia, it creates a corridor or land bridge between Donbas, Crimea and Kherson. If Ukraine holds the area, then Donbas is ‘cut-off’ from Crimea and Kherson.
So it is strategically interesting that a Ukrainian offensive is ‘fixing’ a third of Russia’s combat power in the north while a stalwart defence of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is drawing in a large part of Russia’s remaining combat power. Students of military history will remember how Stalingrad’s defence was used to commit, then attrit German forces before a large counter attack. The capture of two villages heading towards Volnovakha may be an indicator of future Ukrainian plans. However, don’t expect anything too soon, if I was on the Ukrainian staff I would be watching and waiting letting the Russians drift north and commit to battle around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk before moving on Volnovakha, capturing that town then using the H20 as a main supply route for an offensive against Mariupol.
Strategically, Putin’s other recent victory is Turkey breaking step with the remainder of NATO over admission of Finland and Sweden. Putin’s aggression against Ukraine convinced both Nordic nations to ask for NATO membership. Admission of Sweden and Finland brings considerable military power to the alliance, both countries having large, well-equipped and highly professional militaries. Unfortunately, admission to the NATO alliance requires unanimous support from existing members and Turkey is refusing to support their admission.
This is a dangerous situation, so far Putin’s war has not escalated either beyond Ukraine’s borders or to using nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. NATO’s unity and resolve are likely to be significant factors in deterring escalation. Putin, knows that any escalation leading to war with a united NATO is suicide, deterrence is working. However, deterrence is predicated on NATO’s unity so if there is a split Putin has room to manoeuvre.
So what is Turkey’s plan? Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has stated that Turkey does not support Sweden and Finland joining NATO claiming the countries are protecting Kurdish terrorists. However, in these circumstance it is not what is being said that is important but what is not being said. Although Turkey is a NATO member, it has a long history of feeling like an ‘outsider’ in the Western European alliance. A situation exacerbated by the West’s response to the Syrian Civil War and its support for Kurdish separatist movements in the north of Turkey. Both Finland and Sweden condemned Turkish attacks on the Kurds, provide sanctuary for refugees from the conflict and in 2019 embargoed weapons exports to Turkey.
The most likely reason for the Turkey’s statements is not exclusion of Sweden and Finland but rather using the applications to highlight these issues and force recognition of them by other members. We can be sure that NATO diplomats are currently working hard to try and broker a solution and that Turkish diplomats are working equally hard to get every possible concession out of their Western partners. Perhaps greater recognition of Turkey’s Kurdish separatist movement as a terrorist organisation or access to advanced weapons.
However, we should not overlook the possibility that Turkey has other more long-term goals. It has a long history of working closely with Russia in Syria and shares mutual areas of interest. Although Turkey is a NATO member being seen as ‘reasonable’ by Russia is potentially in Turkey’s long-term interests. Turkey’s control of the Bosporus, mandated by the Montreux Accord has been exercised with absolute fairness throughout the conflict demonstrating Turkish integrity. Looking towards the future; and managing the peace when this war is over, it may be politically sensible for Turkey to be perceived as fair and reasonable by Russia.
The issue with Turkey’s position though is that it may signal a weakness in the NATO alliance, one that can be exploited. A long and protracted fight over Sweden and Finland’s admission into NATO may contribute to making it harder for members to stay focussed on the larger strategic objectives; winning the war and then managing NATO’s long-term relationship with Russia after the war. Any division within NATO can be exploited and weakens the clear message of unity and resolve that is required to deter aggression. It is important that NATO resolves this issue as quickly as possible.
Finally, what about Russia’s lasers? This statement is interesting only because it demonstrates Putin’s desperation. History shows plenty of examples of corrupt regimes in their last days sabre-rattling about high tech ‘wonder weapons’, Putin is desperate to maintain the illusion of threatening military power that he spent decades creating. Unfortunately, this illusion is crumbling fast because of the pathetic performance of the Russian military.
In summary, we are going to see interesting developments in the next few weeks. It is highly likely that the Turkish veto of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership will be quickly mediated, probably by a ‘behind closed doors’ American ‘pay off’. Strategically, a united NATO is vital. Tactically, expect to see Russian forces drift north towards Severodonetsk and Lysychansk as they are rested after the battle for Mariupol. Russia’s main effort is likely now just the capture of these cities. It is likely that soon there will lots of politicking in Kherson, Crimea and Donbas for independence or more likely for Russian annexation. It is vital that Ukraine recapture as much territory as possible before this happens because annexation brings Russia’s ‘nuclear card onto the table’. However, a Ukrainian offensive in the south may already be being planned.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
“Perhaps greater recognition of Turkey’s Kurdish separatist movement as a terrorist organisation or access to advanced weapons.”
Turkey’s economy is in a dire situation with the Lira collapsing (fall of 44% in 2021 and 17% in 2022 so far). It is a net importer, the biggest component being oil and natural gas which have risen around 30-50% since 2021. Energy purchases must be made in Euros or USD and foreign currency reserves are dwindling. So Turkey has the double whammy of rising prices in USD terms while foreign currency is more expensive in Lira term.
This has a knock on effect to the rest of the economy and population with CPI is forecast to rise 68% in 2022 (in part due to 105.9% rise in transportation costs and 89.1% rise in food).
“It is highly likely that the Turkish veto of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership will be quickly mediated, probably by a ‘behind closed doors’ American ‘pay off’.”
It would be a surprise if Turkey jeopardised and energy supplies from Russia without trying to parlay it’s NATO veto into major financial and economic guarantees from the US and EU.
These commentaries would be even better if they included a map with the towns, areas of interest and troop movements/objectives clearly shown.
There is an excellent Ukrainian you tuber that has daily updates with war maps and pretty unbiased opinions on what is going on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OLJE-8zgzE
Agreed it was useful seeing a map.
Though I’m not sure he unbiased. I think he’s 100% pro Ukrainian.
If you go to Southfront.org there’s an excellent Indian who does map analysis, very unbiased.
Seems to me that the front from Kharkov to the Donetsk is slowly crumbling, the Russians are very deliberately enclosing pockets of Ukrainian troops. Very soon Zhelensky will be forced to admit the loss of the army in the East.
Any leader who respected the lifes of his people would sue for peace, I suspect that the Russians are beyond that point and will reconfigure the map. Given that a large chunk of the Azov people are now removed what chance of the military taking power in Kiev?
Hi Ivan
what’s up ted no actual counter arguments?
Ted, doesnt matter if you are biased one way or other, facts cant be denied because they don’t fit your wishes. For the record I see this war as a cesspool of illegitimate regimes having a go. Theres no angels, least of all Zhelensky.
You are such a tragic,do some research on Southfront could there be a more Russia supporting sight.I imagine these guys sitting behind their computer screen just taking the piss and knowing there is a group of dumb f…. gobbling this up.
What sort of raving is this Nick J? Your Russian biases are showing. Kharkov instead of Kharkiv?
So you want me to call Russian place names in Galician. What by the way is Ukrainian?
The US has waged a full scale Proxy & Economic Sanction War in Ukraine to destroy & Regime change Russia? And it’s failing! The only thing the West are winning in Ukraine is the fake propaganda War of misinformation & gaslighting! Biden’s Ukraine project is failing apart spectacularly & has backfired on the US, the UK & the EU. What the West has discovered, to its absolute horror, is that Russia is a irreplaceable Energy & Commodity Superpower! Biden is destroying not only the Economy of his own Country but that of the EU, but the biggest catastrophe is that Biden has destroyed trust in the USD Financial system & ushered in a New World Order based on Energy & Commodities rather than fake, fiat green paper USD banknotes? A Titanic shift is taking place with a clear division taking place with the Worlds most populous Nations like Russia, China, Africa, India & Latin America who are fed up with America’s bullying Rules based order & they are combining to set up their own alternative World Order, based on fairness not American violence & threats & their splitting from the West! The West only consists of America, Europe, Japan, Sth Korea, Canada, NZ & Australia & these Nations are being left behind & left out of the new, emerging World order! How’s NZ going to fare during this change? We are on a Russian list of unfriendly Nations & we better not antagonise China like Australia is foolishly doing because China can put us on their unfriendly Country list & destroy our Trade with them, in a instant, if they consider us a US stooge? Thats why NZ must remain neutral & not pick sides during these momentous times of change?
The US has waged a full scale Proxy & Economic Sanction War in Ukraine to destroy & Regime change Russia? And it’s failing! The only thing the West are winning in Ukraine is the fake propaganda War of misinformation & gaslighting! Biden’s Ukraine project is failing apart spectacularly & has backfired on the US, the UK & the EU. What the West has discovered, to its absolute horror, is that Russia is a irreplaceable Energy & Commodity Superpower! Biden is destroying not only the Economy of his own Country but that of the EU, but the biggest catastrophe is that Biden has destroyed trust in the USD Financial system & ushered in a New World Order based on Energy & Commodities rather than fake, fiat green paper USD banknotes? A Titanic shift is taking place with a clear division taking place with the Worlds most populous Nations like Russia, China, Africa, India & Latin America who are fed up with America’s bullying Rules based order & they are combining to set up their own alternative World Order, based on fairness not American violence & threats & their splitting from the West! The West only consists of America, Europe, Japan, Sth Korea, Canada, NZ & Australia & these Nations are being left behind & left out of the new, emerging World order! How’s NZ going to fare during this change? We are on a Russian list of unfriendly Nations & we better not antagonise China like Australia is foolishly doing because China can put us on their unfriendly Country list & destroy our Trade with them, in a instant, if they consider us a US stooge? Thats why NZ must remain neutral & not pick sides during these momentous times of change?
Yes all interesting points but I dont see Ukrainian soldiers invading Russia and bombing schools and theatres. Raping civilians. Targeting non-military targets. They’re not threatening nuclear war if they don’t get their way.
Why anyone can even support the Russian side here I have no idea, except to say you’re maybe Russian yourself or paid by them.
Stan – you haven’t been told (by our biased new media) about what has been going on in the Ukraine over the past 8 or more years. Just because you haven’t been informed doesn’t mean things haven’t been happening. Now you think that the Russians have started something new??
Ukraine will end up a Landlocked rump to the West, confined to Kiev & Lyiv. Half the Country will be lost to Russia after Russia wins!
Based on the last three months there is almost no chance of the Russian Army taking Odessa. In contrast the Izyum salient with 10 BTG is at real risk of being fully encircled by Ukraine forces.
The major event for the next three months is most likely a Ukrainian offensive against the land bridge between Crimea and Donbas. Irrespective of who wins, there would likely be peace negotiations after the outcome of that battle, with the advantage obviously lying with whoever wins.
Having said all that, it is worth recalling the Korean War lasted three years, with two of those years being a stalemate at the 38th parallel. I do think the negotiations will ultimately be more productive than simply being a ceasefire as was the case in Korea. They will actually be a settlement.
Its going to be very instructive to see what plays out, my bets are upon a crushing Russian victory. I will be first to admit it if it goes otherwise, question is will you and the other pro Ukrainian types do the same?
I will also admit that I was wrong if this all washes up as a crushing Russian victory.
Hi Ivan
why howdy there chuck
I think Ted should research some rather unsavoury Epsteinish allegations made against Heath.
I think Ted should research some rather unsavoury Epsteinish allegations made against Heath.