The situation in Ukraine continues to develop as predicted, the Russians are still active along a front roughly 280km long. Arcing from Kharkov in the north, south east through Izyum, to Rubizhne, Kreminna and Popasna in the east, then down to Horlivka in the south. Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian positions and making probing advances and attacks along this arc but are reported to be concentrating their ground attacks in the following areas:
- South of Izyum, where the Russians claim to be approximately 15km south of the town advancing M03 highway; and to have also advanced approximately 30km toward Barvinkove. Both options for an advance to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk discussed in an earlier article. (Converting international support into action and what the Russians are looking at doing next). Based on assessments of Russian strength it is likely that these advances are probes by small forces, perhaps 2-3 battalion tactical groups on each axis. Both looking for a weakness in the Ukrainian defences. If successfully blocked on one axis then the next echelon of Russian units will advance on the other.
- Further east, the Russians are reported to have pushed south approximately 30km towards Lyman, a rail junction and town of about 20,000 people. Between Lyman and Izyum there are also reports of other similar advances, that appear to be either; lone battalion tactical groups or small groups of battalion tactical groups advancing on separate axis’s and supporting each other across a wide front. The long distances being covered and the narrow frontages indicate that these operations are likely to be probing activities.
- Pushing west from Luhansk the Russians are likely to be holding new ground around the towns of Rubizhne, Kreminna and Popasna. The advances here are over smaller distances and holding these areas establishes a firm base for a push against Severodonetsk, a city of about 100,000 people, it is also an important industrial town with rail connectivity and useful bridges. Severodonetsk, is on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River opposite Lysychansk another city with a population of about 100,000.
The Russians are probing on a wide front particularly south from Izyum and further east towards Lyman. The areas that Russian ground forces are committing ground forces too rather than just artillery are relatively small. This is not surprising because the Russians have limited resources and are likely to use them carefully to probe and test the Ukrainian defences before committing a larger force.
However, the push west to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne, Kreminna and Popasna appears to be more carefully staged and coordinated. Here the Russians are advancing methodically and carefully over short distances, not over extending themselves. If they can take Severodonetsk, then they can attack Lysychansk on the other side of the Siverskyi Donets River. Lysychansk, is tactically significant because if captured, it provides a firm base to either push east towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk or south towards Horlivka.
A small Ukrainian offensive, pushing east from Kharkov and Chuhuiv advancing approximately 30km east into Russian held territory has been reported. This offensive is probably aiming to cut the supply line between Belgorod and Izyum.
Based on conventional military logic, Russian operations in the north-east are likely to start concentrating on one axis of advance soon, either the advance south from Izyum towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk or west from Luhansk towards Severodonsteck and Lysychansk. This is required because the Russian lack manpower and simply do not have resources to maintain powerful forces on both axis’s. The Russians will need to start concentrating their forces on one or other axis or they risk defeat in detail (i.e. that the Ukrainians use their full strength to defeat half the Russian force on one axis then turn and use their full force on the other half).
An advance from the east can be supported from the relative safety of Luhansk. An advance from Izyum is possible, but entails the risk of the supply line from Belgorod that runs through recently captured and therefore more hostile territory. This factor leads to the prediction that Russia plans to commit to an advance from the east.
Further south, in Mariupol it seems that despite their public statements the Russians are keen to ‘dig out’ the last defenders isolated in the Azovstal Steel Works. Starving this group out rather than assaulting the area makes more sense tactically. The small remaining group of defenders should be easily contained and unable to have any further impact on the local battle and attacking this area with its reinforced concrete bunkers, underground rooms and tunnels is simply a waste of limited Russian infantry soldiers. Unless, the Russians need too.
In recent days reports of disharmony and low morale amongst Russian soldiers near Mariupol are surfacing. Further, there currently unsubstantiated reports of Chechen mercenaries executing Russian soldiers because units are refusing to fight and credible sources report that Russian forces are not reducing near Mariupol. This may mean that the Ukrainian defenders are in better shape than we thought, or that local Russian forces are in worse shape and are unable to securely contain the defenders. It could mean both. If that is the case then we may see fighting in Mariupol continue longer than expected.
Since, the last article Russian generals and politicians have made statements confirming a strategic intent to build a coastal corridor to Tranistria. This concept was discussed previously when Russian forces were fighting near Mykolaiv and directly threatening Odessa. Access to warm water ports has always been an objective of Russian leaders. Strategically, Tsarist Russia, Soviet Russia and Putin’s Russia have all worked hard to ensure that Russia has year-round access to the sea. So confirmation that Russian planers are thinking in these terms should not be a surprise and is why the fighting around Kherson is so important.
At this time the Ukrainians and Russians are trading blows between Mykolaiv and Kherson. This area is relatively flat and Ukrainian forces are reported to be relatively strong and mobile in this area. Ukraine’s 5th Armoured Brigade, initially held back to defend Odessa is reported to be in the area. Although, a reserve unit it has now had two months of preparation and brings about 100 tanks crewed by fresh soldiers into the battle, so it seems unlikely that the Russians will win here unless there is a significant change in operational strategy and Russian objectives in the north-east sacrificed.
And this is the key dilemma that the Russians face, they simply do not have the combat power required to do everything. This situation is not going change. Before the war, the Russian economy was only slightly larger than Australia’s and since the start of the war it has been strangled by allied sanctions. Ukraine on the other hand has almost unlimited resources with their NATO allies prepared to underwrite almost any expenditure. Time is not on Russia’s side.
Yesterday, Russia attacked 56 targets across Ukraine with bomber aircraft and missiles. This is an attempt to bluff Ukraine and NATO into believing that Russia can prevent supplies from the west reaching frontline forces by using long-range weapons. History demonstrates that this is not likely to be successful. During the Vietnam War, America tried to use airpower to disrupt North Vietnamese supply lines and dropped a greater tonnage of bombs on Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia than were dropped on Germany during the whole of World War Two. America was unsuccessful and Russia with vastly less resources will be too.
In summary, Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia is getting weaker, this means that Russians need to accept the tactical situation and reduce their operational objectives quickly so they can win in a limited number of areas before the Ukrainians get too strong. My advice would be to ‘dig in’ in the north-east and hold the gains that have been made then switch main effort to threatening Odessa. Taking Odessa at this time is probably beyond Russia’s capability but by prioritising this area they may be able to build a force strong enough to take Mykolaiv and to realistically threaten Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. This move would require the Ukrainians to switch forces between fronts, moving reserves from the east to counter the threat to not only to Odessa but also to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
Tactically it is important to keep Ukrainian forces moving because at a strategic level it is likely that the Ukrainians will be planning an offensive on or near the 9th of May. It would be sensible for the Russians to be dug-in, prepared and concentrated in key areas ready to receive that offensive rather than continuing to be dispersed and relatively weak across a wide front.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Russia can protest at the supply of weapons to Ukraine all day long but they were more than happy to do the same and more during the Vietnam War (proxy war).
“The Soviet Union supplied North Vietnam with medical supplies, arms, tanks, planes, helicopters, artillery, anti-aircraft missiles and other military equipment. Soviet crews fired Soviet-made surface-to-air missiles at U.S. F-4 Phantoms, which were shot down over Thanh Hóa in 1965. Over a dozen Soviet soldiers lost their lives in this conflict. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russian Federation officials acknowledged that the Soviet Union had stationed up to 3,000 troops in Vietnam during the war.[229]
Some Russian sources give more specific numbers: Between 1953 and 1991, the hardware donated by the Soviet Union included 2,000 tanks, 1,700 APCs, 7,000 artillery guns, over 5,000 anti-aircraft guns, 158 surface-to-air missile launchers, and 120 helicopters. During the war, the Soviets sent North Vietnam annual arms shipments worth $450 million.[230][37]: 364–71 From July 1965 to the end of 1974, fighting in Vietnam was observed by some 6,500 officers and generals, as well as more than 4,500 soldiers and sergeants of the Soviet Armed Forces. In addition, Soviet military schools and academies began training Vietnamese soldiers—in all more than 10,000 military personnel.[231]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War#Soviet_Union
James – you might note that we were on the wrong side in the Vietnam war.. I thought you had studied some history.
I have and while that may be the case those supplying the Ukrainians with weapons (to defend their country from invasion) sure as shit not on the wrong side this time.
So you accept we were on the wrong side in Vietnam, even though that completely invalidates your argument?
We are also on the wrong side in Ukraine. Im thankful we didnt send arms, but any help is futile at best, and could help to create a bloody insurgency at worst, which is the aim of the US arms lobby, NATO and the EU.
I dont know where the writer of this blog is getting their information, perhaps the US State Department?
Everthing Im hearing says Russia is comprehensively achieving its objectives in Ukraine.
And as far as being on the right side of history, are you not aware that the US overthrew the government in Ukraine in 2014 and instigated a civil war against the Russian speaking east of the country which has continued ever since? This despite the Minsk agreement which both Russia and Ukraine were party to and which Ukraine has not adhered to, continuing to attack this eastern region. Ukraine and its western partners have steadfastly refused to negotiate towards peace in Ukraine or guarantee Ukraine will not join NATO which would be a major security threat to Russia. Finally, Russia’s patience ran out.
My understanding is that Russian forces are not targetting civilian areas or civilian infrastructure.
The video evidence is that civilians in the east feel they have been liberated by the Russians, not attacked.
Ukraine is a fascist regime, where speaking Russian is outlawed.
I support the independence of Russian speaking areas of Ukraine, and that the rest of Ukraine become a neutral state, not allied to NATO. I dont dont think these are unusual demands in the part of Russia.
Jeff my argument was that it is hypocritical for Russia to bemoan the West for supplying Ukraine weapons when they have been more than happy to do the same and more in the past – and my admitting that the Vietnam War was an ‘unjust war’ to my mind in no way invalidates this point.
I don’t think that was the point of Jame’s post. Rather it was to show that the supplier of weapons to a combatant party of a conflict does not mean the supplier is also a combatant.
The US did not think the USSR was a a combatant simply because they were a supplier of weapons to North Vietnam. As you note, Russia’s own history will be informing them that the NATO nations (and NZ) are not combatant parties, and therefore cannot be attacked.
It is also why Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statements about the risk of WW3 make no sense. The only way WW3 could start is if Russia directly attacks a NATO country. Or a NATO country directly attacks Russia. And neither NATO or Russia are not going to do that. Even if they did, I reckon things would be quickly de-escalated, at least so far as WW3 was concerned.
Thank you Wayne and yes you are correct re the point that I was trying to make (and I am sure In Vino must have know this but chose to ignore it).
I know that in times of war (and peace) all parties are prone to cheat as hard as possible.
Are you both sure that the Ukraine is a totally ‘sovereign’ country, and that there was no foreign backing for that 2014 coup d’état?
Absolute certainty is a wonderful thing, isn’t it?
So you accept we were on the wrong side in Vietnam, even though that completely invalidates your argument?
We are also on the wrong side in Ukraine. Im thankful we didnt send arms, but any help is futile at best, and could help to create a bloody insurgency at worst, which is the aim of the US arms lobby, NATO and the EU.
I dont know where the writer of this blog is getting their information, perhaps the US State Department?
Everthing Im hearing says Russia is comprehensively achieving its objectives in Ukraine.
And as far as being on the right side of history, are you not aware that the US overthrew the government in Ukraine in 2014 and instigated a civil war against the Russian speaking east of the country which has continued ever since? This despite the Minsk agreement which both Russia and Ukraine were party to and which Ukraine has not adhered to, continuing to attack this eastern region. Ukraine and its western partners have steadfastly refused to negotiate towards peace in Ukraine or guarantee Ukraine will not join NATO which would be a major security threat to Russia. Finally, Russia’s patience ran out.
My understanding is that Russian forces are not targetting civilian areas or civilian infrastructure.
The video evidence is that civilians in the east feel they have been liberated by the Russians, not attacked.
Ukraine is a fascist regime, where speaking Russian is outlawed.
I support the independence of Russian speaking areas of Ukraine, and that the rest of Ukraine become a neutral state, not allied to NATO. I dont dont think these are unusual demands in the part of Russia.
still smarting because the little men and women in black pyjamas won james?
and before you start with if the military had been let off the leash ‘we coulda been a contender’ what excesses short of nukes were the US military denied?
Your comments are just flat out infantile and I can’t bothered.
it was actually a reply to jamie lags in moderation are increasingly resulting in posts being put in random points in threads
That is indeed a bad problem with this website. I always put in the name of the person I am replying to, but one is often gambling with fate in hoping that there will not be multiple other messages coming up before mine, interrupting and destroying the flow of the thread.
“In summary, Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia is getting weaker,”
Nope. Russia moving slowly and carefully as suits them. They are in total control.
Ukraine has lost this war. Zelenski needs to call Putin and cease fighting to save his military and civilians.
NATO/US need to accept they can’t change the outcome.
Scott Ritter Interview: THE WAR – UKRAINE and RUSSIA ( THE TRUTH )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjpM7JrmMNc
All you people ever have is Scott Ritter . .
China will be watching the ever-evolving vulnerability of Russia with great interest.
The US/NATO have complete control with the propaganda. You have to dig deep to find the truth. Very limited sources but Scott Ritter is good.
I look forward to the end of this war just to see what all you morons are going to say.
Russia will probably only accept unconditional surrender, Ukraine and their US masters have no answer to Russian might. They will surrender, or die. Simple as that.
What would happen if Putin let his citizens see the carnage, murder, war crimes, destruction and death of their fellow Russian/Ukraine by Russian, Chechens, Syrians, Ethiopians mercenaries. There would be a revolution by the people like what happened to Roman President Ceausescu or even an assassination. A rather cowardly and gutless war by a super power Russia over a largely defenseless nation.
From what I can see, it appears that the vast majority of Russians do not agree with you. Do you have some way of educating them?
meet Jacob Dreizin https://youtu.be/WSogX3qyidk?list=TLPQMjcwNDIwMjLcVHkcE2PxDQ&t=622
https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/04/10/losses-of-the-belligerent-sides/
https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/04/26/the-prophecy-has-been-realized/
“As I have said many times since the very first days of the war, if the U.S. and its hegemonic bloc do not back down and try to cut a deal, THE UKRAINE WILL BE TOTALLY DESTROYED.
At least one-third of it will go to Russia, and the rest will become another Afghanistan, albeit one with a number of severely under-maintained and overstressed nuclear power plants.
Several million more refugees will hit Europe at the worst possible time. “…
“American news sources have placed all Ukrainian Nazis into the Azov regiment.
The reality is, the Nazis are all over the place.
Yes, the National Guard is the Ukrainian SS.
https://i0.wp.com/thedreizinreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/freakshow.jpg?w=715&ssl=1
https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/04/24/russias-plan-a-and-plan-b-explained/
You really do come across as someone who should be in a padded room somewhere (remember to check for Nazi’s under the bed though before you close the door).
I was cunning. I bought a bed base that has no space underneath for anybody.
🙂
All serious informed commentators are assessing that Ukraine now has an excellent chance of defeating Russia. Based on their knowledge of Ukrainian and Russia battle strengths, including tactics and weaponry. especially now NATO nations are supplying heavy weapons.
Defeating Russia probably does not mean removing the Russian Army from the Donbas. That will be extremely difficult given the many years of Russia and the separatists preparing their defensive positions.
However, it does mean defeating any Russian assaults. That may well include the southern land bridge, which has only been occupied by the Russians for a relatively short time. Assuming the Russian assaults from the Donbas is defeated, then the focus will shift to the the southern land corridor Ukraine will want to win it back. If they did so, that would a decisive defeat of the Russian Army. This would meet Secretary Austin’s definition of fundamentally degrading Russian military power.
Austin has deep military experience (he was a 4 star General) and in no way could he be described as a military adventurer. He and his advisors must have done a deep assessment of Russia’s military capability. He is clear that the Russian Army can be defeated, at least in terms of removing them from the land bridge. That is clearly his assessment.
I, for one, would not blithely dismiss his view as no more than political bluster.
” All serious informed commentators ”
But who decides whom is serious and informed ?
All too often credence is given to useful idiots who support the ruling juntas narrative while credentialed experts languish in minor media e.g bellingcat vs Ted Postal , one an internet “investigator” the other a Phd physicist and experienced weapons expert . Guess who is the most quoted by the MSM ?
Moreover supposed experts with a record of failed predictions ( think neo-cons ) are retained and published in the MSM while others who have been proven correct are ignored by MSM . Think WMD ‘s and Scott Ritter .
Speaking of Mr Ritter I listened to his analysis of the Bucha massacre where he presented contemporaneous public evidence from Ukrainian sources which made for a convincing argument of Ukrainian guilt while stating at the end of the video to not trust him , doubt everything he said , and examine for ones self the validity of his claims .
I compared this to Paul Buchanans podcast on the same subject wherein Russian guilt was assumed , stated motives for their “crimes” was speculative and frankly ridiculous and overall found the entire podcast laden with an unprofessional bias
devoid of rational analysis . And I think you’d agree that he is seen as a All serious informed commentator by many in the NZ intelligence / defence industry no ? After all he taught at Auckland university which implies expertise (God help NZ ) .
Guess which argument I found compelling ?
Hi Ivan
Gidday Boris. Times running out.
The trouble is that if Zelenski does that he has been promised to be hung by the neck until dead from a tree in the amain street of Kiev. Zelenski is no more in charge of Ukraine than Joe Biden is in charge of the US. Did you see him being shooed away from some people he was talking to by a large rabbit, and accepting the control.
The way Trump was treated by media and officials while he was president massively damaged the institution of the President of the United States of America, but the overt management of the senile incumbent is making a complete mockery of it.
D J S
The ruble is up!
Just one small point.
I don’t think Russia would use a full battalion tactical group (BTG) for a probing advance. A BTG is about 1,000 soldiers with around 30 to 40 armoured vehicles, including up to 20 tanks. Russia does not have so many BTG’s to risk them so readily. To put it into perspective, using say 6 BTG (3 on each prong) for probing advances will be using nearly 10% of the total armoured fighting strength of the Russian Army in Ukraine.
More likely the probing advances are by company sized groups. Two such groups would be half a BTG.
Makes sense Wayne. I suspect Russian forces en masse will drive towards Odessa.
Around the Kharkov Izium areas the best Ukrainian units have no logistical support, no resupply, no mobility, no aircover. Why would Russia do anything but let them wither?
I think that Western concepts of war are outmoded. Russia is doing microsurgery with new missiles. They are not perfect but they are learning faster than Western commentators.
Well, the Russian Army could try to take Odessa, but in my view they would be defeated.
The Ukrainians know full well the importance of Odessa and have put in place a comprehensive defence in depth.
The newly supplied heavy weapons (155 mm artillery with smart munitions, a substantial number of tanks, drones, long range air defence, the Mig 29’s held by East European states) will be enough to break any Russian advance. The Ukrainians will have full knowledge of Russian deployments and communications supplied from NATO’s very sophisticated systems.
Of course the Russians will also know all of this, so may be reluctant to chance such an attack. It would require at least three divisions, two in assault, one in reserve. That is one third of the Russian Army in Ukraine. The risk the Russians face is the comprehensive destruction of three divisions. That would be greater than the losses around Kyiv, and could mean total Russian casualties during the war up to near 50,000.
That number of casualties is comparable to all US losses in the Vietnam war from 1964 to 1972, except that it would have happened in three months. Russia’s total population is only 50% of the US population of the 1960’s. It would bee seen by Putin’s colleagues and the Russian people as a catastrophic loss.
Thanks for the blog – most interesting.
Thoughts:
It seems the Ukrainians have seen this coming for years so it’s likely the defenders in Mariupol are very well stocked in those bunkers so will be almost impossible to dislodge. Meanwhile they tie up troops by just being there. Rather like a ‘fleet in being’.
The longer the Russians delay, the more time the West has to deliver fancy new weapons and train the soldiers to use them. Things such as the M982 Excalibur guided artillery shell, when used in conjunction with spy drones, could be devastating.
I expect the US will soon be mounting drone attacks along the Black Sea and claiming it done by Ukrainians because how could the Russians prove otherwise? If they’re not already…
I think that the world has accepted that the Ukraine is the Finnish Winter War Mk 2 and are just waiting to see how far the advance can be stopped until the inevitable ceasefire comes. Ukraine will cede territory and logically this is the only way it can end without an influx of foreign troops on the Ukrainian side.
Unfortunately that while this is an entirely logical view, it leaves Ukraine impoverished (Having lost around 90% of its gas reserves to Russia and all of the Donbas mining region as well as mega destruction of infrastructure) and ripe for future Russian incursion.
Russia will attempt to gobble a large part of the lower mid western flank of the Ukraine and try for and hold all the southern territory up to the Dnipro? river. So the only question is how far will they actually get.
Really sad, especially for the people of Mariupol who fought so hard for their city. Despite international support, NATO will allow the can to be kicked further down the road.
All the NATO wardogs supplying arms to Ukraine, or trying to, are supporting a NAZI dominated regime.
That is a fact. Keeping this war going is fueling these monsters. The US will sink to any level to try and undermine Russia. Waste of time. Supporting US/NATO is supporting Nazis. Hope you all are happy about that.
and the germans are sending gephard light armoured tracked AA systems..will the ukrainians be trained in these weapons on german soil or will german ‘advisors’ go with the vehicles to the ukraine….because you can mark my words on this the russians will not react to well to germans on their doorstep…AGAIN.
plus more mundanely handing a massive propaganda boost for putin at home…the GPW is still very much a thing in the russian psyche.
‘Because you can mark my words on this the russians will not react to well to germans on their doorstep…AGAIN.”
I imagine you are referring gagarin to the German (led) invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 which of course followed closely after the USSR had itself already invaded Poland + Finland + Estonia + Latvia + Lithuania . . also the USSR would have been unlikely to have prevailed in WW2 had the West not also been involved in regards to German forces having to be committed to other fronts at the same time and the massive supply of weapons etc to the USSR by (prepare yourself for this one Putin Apologists) – the West.
and the german annexation of the ukraine in ww1…they keep on coming back
and the position of the GPW in the russian psyche is separate from history…that’s why it’s part of the psyche…..like oh lets say Gallipoli.
I don’t normally engage with wheraboos so I will recommend a youtube by a geezer called TIK, no friend of the soviets but at least he knows some history.
read my posts again and indicate the ‘apologist for putin’ pieces descriptions of the geopolitics yup, critisism of western propaganda and censorship yes…good words about vlad..nope…or if you can prove different feel free to cut paste and cite thread…g’wan darezya.
So no comment re the Soviet invasion of Poland + Finland + Estonia + Latvia + Lithuania garagrin but only the (later) invasion by Germany in 41 and the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk?
Similarly nothing but silence re the massive supply of weapons etc to the USSR by the USA & Britain without which the Red Army would have been unlikely to have prevailed in WW2 (or your GPW) . . or is that just an inconvenient truth re your criticism of the West now similarly supplying weapons etc to Ukraine?
“In total, the U.S. deliveries to the USSR through Lend-Lease amounted to $11 billion in materials: over 400,000 jeeps and trucks; 12,000 armored vehicles (including 7,000 tanks, about 1,386[57] of which were M3 Lees and 4,102 M4 Shermans);[58] 11,400 aircraft (4,719 of which were Bell P-39 Airacobras)[59] and 1.75 million tons of food.[60]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease#US_deliveries_to_the_Soviet_Union
Re your lame g’wan darezya’ challenge yes maybe you are right (in that you haven’t expressly stated that you are ‘pro-Putin’ but are instead just rabidly anti-West and ‘pro-Russia’) but to be honest (my) life is busy enough without having to troll through all your earlier comments to prove otherwise just because you have ‘dared me’.
Also your constant digs about my ‘not knowing any history’ . . I think it is clear that is not entirely accurate and simply and attempt to dismiss anything that you disagree with.
Gagarin – It is clear that you care about Russia deeply and don’t you think that both you and the other like-minded Russophiles would be better served instead of trying to justify the invasion of Ukraine to instead look at how Russia can turn around it’s current demographic collapse and being such a shithole that it leads the world in male suicide?
https://www.ft.com/content/8c576a9c-ba65-4fb1-967a-fc4fa5457c62
https://www.fairplanet.org/editors-pick/russian-men-on-the-top-place-of-committed-suicides/
Mr Morgan
Responding to Your balanced presentations sensibly devoid of passion (which is beat kept for the boudoir):
The trouble with Elections, is invariably they encourage utterances from some who want to be a political leader, to say pretty dumb things.
Boris Johnson and President Biden are classics- too many examples to bother reciting here but both, in my view, seek to deflect poor polling back home by promoting chaos in another country.
In the case of America, this model has also, long been adopted to ensure jobs back home within the Military Industrial Complex.
Australian Defence Minister Dutton’s recent, “Prepare for war with China and Russia”, also fits into this category – in my assessment. Afterall, its looking to be a close election in Oz.
Perhaps if Aussie had paid more attention to Solomon Islands? Too late now.
Like them or loath them, China is too big to ignore as a critical component in the Globalization (invented by America) of economic production and also as a consumer of raw materials from abroad.
New Zealand depends on China for dairy and timber exports. There is no alternative for either export. New Zealand depends on Chinese students and tourists. Period.
I’m no fan of New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, but I must congratulate her on her recent – sane statement apropos China, that New Zealand seeks to find a middle or neutral ground balancing our trade dependence while opposing perceived wrongs of the Chinese government.
Two years ago, Fortescue’s Mining Magnate Andrew Forrest made a valiant effort to save the Aussie coal industry trade with China – earning rebuke from politicians who, assured of their monthly salary irrespective of the success of trade relations, cashed in on paranoia and the xenophobic.
When it comes economic survival, in most parliaments there is a massive difference between commercial acuity of an industrialist or commercial magnate or even a farmer sweating out days in the fields of production, and a politician.
Like it or not, China is well on its way to replacing the Dying Empire of America who will join Britain and France and Germany and Italy and Spain and Portugal – in the embers of Empire builders who’ve had their day.
As for Mr Dutton’s war on Russia rant, at a time when politicians on one side of the Russian Ukraine affair herald the strength of the European economy and the will of the politicians to defeat an undefeatable adversary, the side of the story Western media don’t run is the chronic plight of Europe’s dependence on Russian oil/gas and massive damage sanctions are doing in their own countries.
Germany industrialists are not happy with sanctions. Nor are the farmers in France. Argentina has said sanctions won’t stop the war and India and China put their people and their economies, ahead of America’s quest for world hegemony via sanctions
For they who get their daily data from other than BBC and American influenced NZ mainstream, a case can be made that President Putin clearly had been gearing up for this Ukraine affair for some years – probably since Ukraine failed to honour the Minsk accord ceasefire after Russia re-took Crimea, and perpetually shelled civilians in the Don bas region.
In-spite of the best efforts of Western media to portray Russia on the brink of collapse, sanctions over time have compelled Russia to become self-sufficient – totally. From hypersonic gliders to more grain than their bread ovens can bake.
As always in politics: Be careful for what you wish.
The reality for Europe is, the imminence of economic chaos far exceeds problems in Russia- which enjoys trade and no sanctions with the two most populace countries on the planet: India and China.
The big question for Australia remains: Is the former policeman Peter Dutton concerned about his government’s polling and playing to the China xenophobia and anti-Russian sentiment or does he seriously believe that Australia has a hope in Hades of taking on China and Russia in a military clash?
PS Bye the way. The turban imposed on the head of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, during his recent visit to India to facilitate trade and urge distance with Russia, was the traditional head gear worn by “Traders” – who are one level above “Untouchables”. Perhaps a hidden message?
Great post, Ross!
I was going to summarise the situation but then I realised it’s to chaotic. It’s nice to read people who knows what they’re talking about because there’s a bunch of people who talk defence but don’t actually know what they’re talking about. So if we share the content then perhaps people won’t really know what we are talking about.
So I just wanted to comment a bit about moral realism.
I really shouldn’t be going deep because I’m drinking and IV got a lot of work on.
But as I understand the philosophy of it all is muder is wrong and you ought not torture babies and good and bad with different ways of cashing those out but those are the claims that there are different ways of axing out goodness and badness. Promiscuity ECT. Those are what I mean by acting out moral claims.
So I guess the first part of realising the moral claims of this or that bad actor is when we say Putin bad or erupoean well being is dependent on cheap Russian resources people should know and I think they do know that these claims have truth value.
These truth values can be denied by expressing propositions or expressing a different belief but there really is only one version of reality but at the same time these aren’t just expressions of emotions. Instead these alternative meanings can be expressed as true or false.
Secondly non of the claims or counter claims can be uniformly false. So for example something like torturing puppies is wrong but hey, we put more stock into our own moral values before something else.
So any of our subjective mental states can not be attributed to feelings or desires, attitudes or what ever even though they can not be uniformly correct or wrong.
So even if we all thought that kicking cats on Wednesdays is a good thing then we would all be mistaken.
I guess to rephrase your question and answer, Ross, “perhaps a hidden message?”
Is perhaps a mistake and I’m not trying to be critical of your statement it’s that the truth value will be dependent on what pleasure we might get from it.
So it stands to reason that some of us will know the moral truth of geopolitics, my only reason for making this comment is that we don’t won’t any scepticism because atleast some of us can recognise the truth in what you’ve said.
I think I agree but after a reread under the clear sighted perspicacity induced by liquor i will probably agree or disagree according to the amount of liquor I consume . Cheers !
I don’t want no violence but I’m ready to go.
By now, it should be abundantly obvious that Russian forces hold the initiative everywhere and are inflicting disproportionate losses on Ukrainian soldiers.
This has to stop. NATO are looking to come in from the west. All that can come from any continuation is more death and destruction for Ukraine. Time for this to be halted.