BOOM – all the attacks on Labour have come to nothing!
As I have argued, Kiwi’s trust what Jacinda has done, they know that Covid is dangerous, they can see the impact overseas and they want MIQ tightly restricted. They might not like it, they might feel she slipped up in places, but they are voting for her regardless.
The Caucus were shown internal UMR polling during the January retreat that had them on 38%, after the month from media hell, to gain and be up to 44.3% is an enormous boost.
There are of course Winners + Losers
WINNERS:
Jacinda + Labour: Despite the most intense attacks via the media in her entire political life where the public were told she was WORSE than the Taliban, Labour have climbed to 44.3%. Despite what feral protestors say, Covid is still viewed by the majority of kiwis as a national emergency they have no interest in seeing here. While she continues to keep us safe, the majority will rally to her.
Chris Luxon: He’s done it! Christian Lex Luther has won over the conservatives who have flirted with ACT. His CEO respectability is still enough of a lure to attract social climbers, however as I’ve argued previously, 32% is his ceiling and unless he finds another gear, he’ll get smashed by Jacinda.
Greens: They have finally found a strategy that works. Don’t say anything and people will forget they are as alienating as Donal Trump at a feminist folk festival.
LOSERS:
ACT: David forgot why people had flocked to ACT in the first place, they championed Right Wing Values, by engaging with policy no one really cares about, he’s lost the angry white male vote he had built in Auckland. Wait for the Free Speech fight this year for ACT’s fortunes to reverse.
Climate Change: With Labour able to hold onto an astounding lead because of their Covid handling, the climate can go fuck itself.
Beneficiaries and the working poor: With Labour able to hold onto an astounding lead because of their Covid handling, Beneficiaries and the working poor can go fuck themselves.
Renters: With Labour able to hold onto an astounding lead because of their Covid handling, renters can go fuck themselves.
CONCLUSION:
Once again, Labour’s Covid response will save them from doing anything meaningful on a vast range of domestic issues they have done sweet fuck all on. Frightened voters rally to the flag and their fear of Covid has not waned. If Omicron is as bad as the Hootonian Theorem suggests, Labour could win another outright majority.
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I feel the polls at this time conclusively prove how utterly irrelevant they really are with one exception.
The Greens have been invisible. All they’ve done is cash in on the “Green” name without actually doing anything. Their leadership is a complete turn off yet they go up in the polls.
People are more disillusioned with Labour and the PM since they came to power in 2017….yet they go up in the polls.
Snooker ball head goes up in the polls despite doing SFA apart from hiding his true self while throwing fluff at the Government.
Seemoreseeless has dropped in the polls despite doing the same soundbites he always does.
Conclusion. The poll is best ignored by everyone except Seemoreseeless. The Smurf Party lost a % of their following to ACT under the despicable Chucky and many of those folk are now predictably returning to their slime covered home base.
Apart from that, you’d get a more realistic guide at this time by looking into tea leaves ….. from the outside of the teabag.
Never has there been a more desert like landscape for politics.
Vote Labour to worsen the already catastrophic housing market and ensure that inequality, mental health, health in general and infrastructure continue their decline.
Vote National for all of the above with the exception of improving highways and unaffordable tax cuts.
Vote ACT for all of the above and it’s every man for himself.
Vote green for all of the above and a leader beam focus on pronoun annunciation.
The rest, not a dog show.
Sad but true, XRAY. What coloured dogshit do you prefer?
Election 2023 boils down to whether you think the lesser evil is this government’s jiggery-wokery (which is undermining most of our institutions), or ACT’s freemarket fundamentalism. The Nats pitch under Luxon seems to be a more competent, more business-friendly version of LINO’s prog neoliberalism.
The Lamestream media and left wing pundits need to calm down – it’s 1 poll that bucked the trend of the last 4 polls so unless this is sustained there is no real trend here.
No point having a victory lap 15 months from an election as $3 a litre and 15% grocery expenses filter through the economy. Poor man’s Gordon Brown’s sins have still got to be paid within the current electoral cycle.
So Frank are you saying it’s ok to do a victory lap based on the last four polls before this one despite 15 months to go
Probably closer to 20 months out from election day 2023 than 15…..contributing even more to the complete irrelevance of these polls.
No.
One poll in 7. It’s a rogue.
RR polls are wildcard type polls until closer to an election and then they become more accurate.
Inspite of all the vitriol and propaganda stories from Granny (Jacinda worse than the Taliban) closed borders is what the majority of Kiwis want and anti vaxxer’s can protest all they like, but only a minority agree with them.
More people, choose life. Less people choose Natz caught selling MP seats to the more valued nationalities for $100k and ACT who took up the NZ First and Natz voters who want old fashioned pre Key Globalism, Natz. Now Natz might be spinning a new message, ACT first to decline.
1.5% increase is ‘soaring” for Labour?
What is a 4.4% increase for National then? The sky is the limit? lol
more saturday night football reporting of politics…..
if recent years have told us one thing…polls, surveys and focus groups are all bollocks…
people lie to survey takers,,, people lie about caring about poverty then vote nat, people lie about supporting act because they don’t want to be called idiots – then duly vote act.
political polling these days is as much use as water divining (hell that’s probably more use) all it provides is blather for the chattering classes on a slow news day.
It’s just not the same without Tova.
I ascribe the poll change to the opening the borders announcement rather than Omicron. Luxon also picked up because of his open the border now nonsense. Greens improvement totally nonsensical and ACT plummeting due to the shift of protest voters who now see they can resume their overseas holidays.
Butth*les, one and all. 3 parties of self interest and another of intersectionalist would be martyrs. Sigh.
weird poll. Why would the Greens shoot up like that (bad pun) as they have done nothing new.
LOSERS:
Us.
As long as our democracy is one of neoliberal capitalism we’re all losing while they get richer and fatter.
Thus fuck them all.
” weird poll. Why would the Greens shoot up like that ”
Backs up what I suspect is a fixed poll. The Greens don’t deliver any of their actual policy thanks to the LINO majority and what influence they have is all vacuum with no suck.
Roy Morgan has again polled Nat/ACT
as well ahead of Lab/green, so there appears to be a a fair bit of variability between polls.
“ In New Zealand: New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon boosts support for National to 35%; now ahead of Labour on 33”
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8892-nz-national-voting-intention-january-2022-202202072332