The one chart by Matthew Hooton you must watch to see Omicron Tsunami

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Hooton came up with a very clever Omicron chart that basis itself on a 33% increase, he’s calling not the ‘Hootonian equation’, I suspect he did this to shit all over the modellers advice so that he could attack the Government’s credibility.

Unfortunately it’s turned out to be excruciatingly precise and we need to keep an eye on it because it’s a terrifying overview of where we might be going with caseloads…

…most of the Omicron outbreak has looked like this, a very slow spotty start and then obscene lift off.

We are enjoying mocking the modellers while screaming for MIQ to open while cheering Charlotte Bellis, but look at where Hooton predicts we will be buy the end of February, 111, 993 cases in a day????

I don’t think we are ready for what comes next.

 

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54 COMMENTS

  1. He’s half correct.

    These are “vegetative growth curves” which show geometric growth at the start. But once infected people start to infect people who have already had it so are immune, the curve tops off and the decline starts.

    As I’ve been saying for the last two years – this thing only truly ends when when we’ve all been infected.

    • So… by extension to that logic, and I’m not meaning to argue the figures here, mainly because I don’t have the brain power, is that the profoundly negative impact that we homo sapians are having generally on our only biosphere will only cease once the last of we homo sapians drops dead.
      Great. Charming. Whoop. Adds a whole new dimension to the concept of instant gratification though doesn’t it?
      Anyone seen a film title ” Children of Men.” ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men

      • Love that film. The images of the collapse of capitalism are very striking.

        The book it is based on also is great (by P D James), and has some significant differences from the movie: e.g. the movie focuses on female infertility, while the book focuses on the drop to zero of males’ sperm count.

        Whatever chart is the best prediction, we are in for a very intense and bumpy Omicron ride.

        Plus, the Italian research should be heeded that shows pandemics/epidemics are most often followed by major social or civil unrest and upheavals.

        https://www.newsweek.com/history-epidemics-pandemic-civil-unrest-reasons-1530055

        “According to the study, there is evidence to demonstrate that epidemics can disrupt civil society in three ways. Firstly, because policies to prevent the spread of disease can conflict with people’s interest; secondly because the epidemic’s impact on mortality and economic welfare can worsen inequality; and finally due to the psychological shock that can lead people to believe irrational narratives regarding the spread of disease, “which may result in social, racial discrimination and even xenophobia.”

      • You’re drawing an excessively long bow.

        We are part of nature, therefore everything we do is, by extension, natural. Meteor impacts and volcanoes are also natural and they have far more impact than us.

      • No C.B , it is the bell curve naturally expected of any viral ‘pandemic’. And mark my words, covid is NOTHING compared to an actual pandemic such as the Spanish flu. Absolutely zilch. Unless you want to argue 550,000,000 deaths by comparison. And while I believe it is a bio weapon [ NZ labs have now detected nano tech in the Pfizer vax…] there are others coming out now and saying it was a wealth transfer mechanism….

        A Manufactured Illusion: Dr David Martin with Reiner Fuellmich
        https://youtu.be/gsDlHprql-g?t=2

        They have found this thing to not be possible in the natural environment but that it was indeed, manufactured. But isn’t it wonderful that even [potentially evil minded man made, bio weapons track down the same path as natural pathogens?, – I can only say we have someone looking out for us…]

        So fear not, we all know the 1970’s idea of cutting world populations and ‘we couldn’t feed them all so they must go’ [ so long as its not me],…a ‘nice, happy clappy smaller and controllable population of serfs and slaves would be nice’ B.S.

        Don’t you remember this, C.B? OFC you do. I quoted myself…

        God’s Gonna Cut You Down
        https://youtu.be/eJlN9jdQFSc?t=3

      • Old news. In fact the vacs didn’t stop infecting others or contracting it again. So much so that now you need a booster shot, and another one , and another one,… and that its been found in Israel that the ICU beds are full of the vaxxed, – NOT the unvaxxed. Except that now we are dealing with omicron,- a far less variant than ever before, and one that is equated with about as much ‘lethality’ as the common cold and tracks exactly the same bell curve path as other viral infections.

        Kind of a shitty vaccine as compared to the polio vaccine, don’t you think? What a pile of crock it all has been. Complete with its myocadiac [ lethal heart attacks] in so many top athletes in the prime of their health…Try the Spanish flu with an estimated 550,000,000 global deaths for a REAL pandemic… if you want to get past political tribalism and then calling covid a ‘pandemic’.

        The jokes on you if you believe that.

        A Manufactured Illusion: Dr David Martin with Reiner Fuellmich
        https://youtu.be/gsDlHprql-g?t=2

        Take another hour and watch this as a challenge to any comfortable settings one might have been lulled into. We’ve all heard and been shouted down by the party political line people, now maybe its time to back up and cast off the blinkers.

        • “… the ICU beds are full of the vaxxed, – NOT the unvaxxed”.

          Well, that makes sense WK. With let’s say 90+% vaxxed there will be “more” vaxxed in ICU. ‘Full of the vaxxed’ is a bit vague. You’ll have to provide the relative numbers to have any credibility on this one.

      • The PCR test is extremely sensitive when at a high CT value, so it picks up tiny amounts of virus in people who have no clinical illness. From what I understand of the immune system, if the infection is dealt with very quickly by the body’s innate immune system as with children and the young , no antibody formation to the particular pathogen is triggered as that secondary system is never invoked. In this situation a second infection, particularly one that is again only discovered by a PCR test on a non symptomatic person is not unlikely, And neither would it matter.
        D J S

    • People who have previously been infected with OG, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon etc, are not immune to Omicron.

      Omicron has infected those previously infected and those new infections have gone on to infect others.

  2. Logic would suggest therefore, with a few exceptions, the luxury of spending 10 days or more self isolating with testing galore as the government wants just in case is utterly pointless and that in itself will do far more harm than good.

    Those exceptions would be aged care facilities. But even then as Australia has found, those areas have run disastrously short of staff.

    Battening down the hatches is futile it would seem.

  3. Who cares? Omicron is a slightly worse version of the colds we have experienced for centuries. 99% of the 111k cases will have a sore throat and a runny nose but will recover in a week. Why we are continuing to torch the economy, creating massive backlogs in other health areas, destroying social cohesion/mental health metrics/educational standards and creating policies that pump money into the arms of asset holders at the expense of the poor. The preoccupation with COVID and the impact that Labour’s choices have had on the NZ public are absolutely shameful.

    • @ average joe. You were up early? Where are you? In response to your opinion. At 6.45 am.
      Bulls eat grass then they do what…? ( I’m trying to swear less. It’s a pain in the fucking arse.)
      ” Torch the economy…? ” That’s not happening at all. Sure, a few tourist opporaters are missing out on the fun but they’re not the economy. Agriculture is. Let’s not forget that.

    • Okay so my doctor/ occasional drinking buddy explained in to me this way.

      The doctor says that you have a mild/moderate viral infection (common cold); me, the patient, says I’m dying I’ve never felt so sick….

      The new version on covid is still a nasty bug, certainly worse than the usual common cold.

  4. Modellers were predicting 50,000 – 80,000 new mild illness cases (aka Omicron) per day by this weekend but the nation only managed a flaccid 100 per day. I think even the coronavirus particles are over it. Modeller Hooton though stands erect and predicts Luxon will be a magnificent leader who will unite New Zealand.

    • Modellers offer a range of figures, best scenario to worse scenario.
      It’s the scientific illiterates that take the extreme and run with it, as you have.

      • “… best scenario to worse scenario …”

        You’re on the money there RC. And an aditional reminder … to capture those different scenarios modellers play with a range of ‘inputs’, or variables. A science, yes, but bit of a moving feast.

        Will put Hooton’s chart up on the wall. We’ll see.

  5. Yes, Omicron will take off, the country will suffer, and Covid will do as it wants. But……MIQ as it is now can no longer function as it is not fit for purpose anymore. WE can not expect the rest of the world to take care of the Citizen this county is happy to throw overboard, which is what we have done so far. The world is not responsible for the well being of overseas Kiwis. And Martyn, i would love for you to write a little post about the well to do that have been using MIQ with no reason. Such as a Labour MP who travelled to the Netherlands during their Omicron Surge. She in my book exemplifies the current mindset of the Labour Caste, me first, and then the deluge. You are barking up the wrong tree. Labour fucked this one up, with their insistence to not add a category for pregnant women, Labour fucked this up by not organising a proper way for people to come back into this country. Labour has become the Goverment of the Hunger Games.

    • What’s so special about someone pregnant compared to everyone else? Someone overseas knowing there was little chance to get back says, “Bugger it,” becomes pregnant and they’re ahead of all dramatic, tortured, disastrous and horrific situations?

      • Seriously? You actually asked this? Maybe because pregnant women are our future? Without them humanity will cease to exist. That’s been the problem with this whole situation – we have prioritised those with very little left to give at the expense of our young.

        I believe it’s plausible to suggest that as the Boomers die off and the electoral balance shifts, those that were young now and have suffered two
        Years of imprisonment only to be handed the bill won’t be so forgiving when they get their hands on the levers of power.

      • Can you tell me what was so special about Lorde, Taika Waititi, DJ’s, and a Labour MP who has the best odds of beating a lottery and going to travel to Netherlands during the hight of their Omicron outbreak”? Thanks. Mind. Lorde was to ‘sing’ at the wedding of the Non Male Labour Leader to their Non Female Partner. Maybe that is important.

        • Wow Sabine, you sound like you need some urgent counselling. You are in desperate need of an urgent Karenectomy.

          If National aren’t paying you enough, I’ve been thinking that you should approach the ACT Party.

          Another doting female, but this time on David Seymour’s left hand side, would do wonders for his street-cred, and yours.

      • ‘pregnancy isn’t an illness don’t treat women as invalids they can still work’…was the cry from feminists in the 70s, now pregnancy is a cause for ‘special pleading’ as a man I have no skin in the game…but it does show how feminism has devolved from strong self reliant women to mere whining from the entitled…juzz sayin.

        • Feminists around the 70’s had to reduce the fear of pregnancy amongst employers so yes downplayed it and women delayed getting pregnant to interact with the employment situation – now after 25 majority start I would think. Old days the family might be complete by 25.

          But the ideal would have been a system encompassing people who could live full lives within. But sorry that cannot be as it is now more slanted to old men with libidos to the moon, and hard-eyed women planning their financial investments from divorce to divorce settlement after a taste of marriage rather than the old-stye approach to marriage, with romance prevailing as in ‘A Taste of Honey’ from The Beatles.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut7RcPjhlNc

      • Applications for emergency allocations relating to pregnancy have been made by women inside NZ requesting that a partner or a family relative be allowed in. Also, emergency allocation applications are not restricted to NZ citizens but also include foreign nationals who have a resident class visa or above. Pregnancy looks like a legal can of worms that MIQ/MBIE has been keen to avoid opening.

  6. Here’s the go – do you want to ride the wave in summer/autumn or autumn/winter. It will happen. If our hospitals collapse where no others did in the OECD or indeed the developing world that speaks for our health system as opposed to the virus.

    Bit by bit, day by day the narrative is failing. Read you history books the same thing happened with the Spanish flu. The elites and the political class pushed and pushed until the unwashed started ignoring.

  7. I,m grateful that thanks to Labour that we are now facing an Omicron threat rather than Delta, and that vaccination is so now so high. While we may all eventually get some form of Covid, my strategy is to try and sidestep Omicron in hope of milder future strains or it dying out thanks to better vaccines. Try to just watch from the sidelines for a bit and see how things play out. No-one knows the long-term effects of Covid yet. It could cause anything from impotency to memory loss to lung cancer a decade or two down the track. The longer one can avoid it the better I reckon. A great opportunity for people to spend less time on consumerism and instead enjoy their time outdoors. Take up some new hobbies and learn something new. Harden yourself up to a bit of fresh air. They’ll be plenty time for shopping and nite-clubbing again in the future. Look at the Spanish flu. A few years the roaring 20,s are kicking off, the jazz age etc.

    • Yeah, not good optics. He’ll get a spanking for that, or not. One wonders whether there is any ‘helen control’ within the govt. It seems all are left to their own devices … apart from Adern, who is the the remaining fort. All will be sacrificed in her defense, such is the power of personality politics.

    • yeah, Chippys veil slipped on that one. One wonders whether he’ll be chastised for that. If there was ‘Helen control’ yes, but it seems the horses are bolting about the place. Poto etc. Circle the wagons around fort Adern and hope that Waitangi weekend will calm the masses.

    • Is their anything more disingenuous and pathetic than a politician who weaponises covid case number projections for political/ideological gain and then tells the public two years later that he didn’t trust the modelling after all. And who today tells the public not to panic over a few cases of Omicron when the rest of the world has woken up and is opening up. I don’t think Chris knows what to believe anymore.

      • they gave up and surrendered to business interests and are trying to find some kind of justification for throwing kiwis under the bus.
        now the hermit kingdom may not have carried on working but ‘open slather’ has known results, they bowed to the dollar but are desperately pretending that wasn’t their sole motivation…typical LINO really.

    • You know what Chris is then, not believing in the disaster models and not toeing the party line? An ANTIVAXXER!

      • Hipkin’s latest is for everyone not to panic because of endemic Omicron cases (not hospitalisations or deaths) and to make sure that the pantry and freezer are full of food. In other words wet your pants and then panic buy, and act like you are on $300k+ public servant salary like he is.

  8. Let the cards fall as they will. Most of the country is vaccinated and people are over media running the fear factor 24/7

  9. This chart seems to fill a gap in the available information on Covid numbers. I want to see the new cases on a column basis with cumulative additions on the side. Not just hear today’s – say 202 – I then want to know yesterday’s and the day before etc. A short explanation about the R factor and the infection days multiplication etc. too.

    Graphs show quickly the trends, a lot of information, new set against historical. But the numbers piled up in a neat column properly labelled is going to tell me just how things are going. The numbers could also be split up into basic Covid19 with another column for confirmed Omicron.

    A rule of thumb of a third additional every day is notional. Let the concerned professionals put out the chart I have suggested, information that’s reliable at a glance. Hoots is inclined to be off the chart all the time but has had a good idea.

  10. Don’t worry – we only have capacity to undertake circa 50,000 tests per day – so we will never be able to reach 111,000 confirmed cases…
    But seriously – case numbers will escalte quickly now. I suspect that numbers will lag behind the Hootonian model for the next few days and catch up again next week due to less tesing taking place over the long weekend.

  11. Give it away Bradbury, neither the ‘ official ‘ modelers or Hootons model are anywhere near accurate. All these arse wipes are doing is quoting wildly inaccurate figures for pure political gain. Take it all with a grain of salt. That these wankers are doing this to spook the NZ public is despicable.

    • wk yes take it all with a grain of salt – because a lot of it is notional, but possible and some is just too wild for responsible publicity! It just adds to the paranoia when huge figures get touted. Don’t you get paranoid wk we need your interesting observations and knowledge to add to the mix in the moshpit!

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