2 new polls highlight the problem for National & ACT

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Claire Trevett doesn’t get out much so she’s screaming with joy at the latest Taxpayers‘ Union Poll and the internal Talbot Poll that shows Labour at 39% and 41% respectively.

She predicts the end of Jacinda.

Yawn.

As TDB pointed out last week when the Roy Morgan Poll said the same thing…

New Roy Morgan Poll is out and despite 3 months in de facto house arrest, Labour + Greens hold onto the majority…

LABOUR – 39.5%
GREENS – 10.5%

NATIONAL – 26%
ACT – 16%

…this is a remarkable achievement for Labour & Jacinda’s leadership. The past 3 months have been the worst in terms of conditions for voters and while moving to level 3 has alleviated that, it will also see a surge in hospitalizations but they will be manageable.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

If this is the floor of Labour’s support and Jacinda can give the country the Christmas they are begging for, all of the criticisms from the Right and the woke will dissipate and Jacinda will romp home in 2023.

The problem for the Right is that National are not benefiting enough and ACT are cannabilizing that vote.

Those who are angry with Jacinda over Covid on the Left are going to the Greens but the majority of the center is staying.

The danger for ACT & National is that all they’ve had for the past 18months is the hope Covid spreads or that Jacinda  gets stuck in a never ending lockdown, that she is on the verge of breaking through all this means ACT & National’s criticism becomes as vapid as the antiVaxxers.

If Labour’s 90% vaccination rate plan works, the bitterness of being locked down for 4 months will dissipate.

 

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20 COMMENTS

  1. If I did not listen to the radio watch TV NEWS or read a paper or daily blog then living in Chch I would not know there was a covid problem . Apart from the constant reminder of the mask I can shop go out see friends and plan a road trip for next year.
    When covid does get out of Auckland and possibly causing death in other corners of NZ it will be interesting to see where the blame will fall and if it effects Labour’s popularity. It is a long while to go before the next election .

  2. The gweens. Really? Their numbers are always too conveniently enough to get labour across the line. Fool me once…but five consecutive polls??

    I’m calling bs!

  3. Let us suppose that Labour get in again. There are two scenarios.
    1. Labour decides: the voters have shown their loyalty let us respond with adventurous social change. Taxes levied on wealth. Public works that employ people in building safe, comfortable, affordable homes. A proper free public health system. Wages and working conditions that lift people out of poverty. A Social Welfare system that allows people to maintain their dignity and respect.
    Recapture the dream of a nation where degrading poverty has been removed and colonialism is finally dead.
    2. Labour decides: Fuck doing anything we do not have to. Voters know we are the lesser of evils. We are not good but the alternatives( national and ACT) are unthinkable.
    Just keep the settings on cruise and tinker with some stuff like allowing a canine to call itself feline if it identifies as a cat. Might be cynical but it keeps working for us.
    How can we persuade the Labour Party to be Socialist again?

  4. I’m not so sure – I think Labour have effectively lost Auckland and I don’t think they’ll be able to get it back.

    We are going to open up next month, that’s coming and with it an increase in death and the exposure of Labour’s stunning inability to actually deliver anything substantial in health care (how many more ICU beds was it Mr Little?).

    It is a real conundrum as Judith certainly isn’t the answer and it certainly isn’t the pack of clowns making a mockery of things in Wellington right now.

  5. Labour is living off the greens 10.5%. On performance the greens should be on 5 max. disaffected labour voters are voting green. It’s not a fab result for Jacinda. But an undeserved windfall for the greens. With 13.5 % between National and labour. Mmm Covid better not fuck too many more labour people off.

  6. Kick it in the guts, Trev, she’ll be right! Labour will be back no worries. But what we all need to be focusing on is neo liberalism and any party that insists on it. We were never consulted or asked about it, they just dumped it on us and lied about it to boot. That’s the REAL problem with this country.

    • What has happened to NZF have they expired, I don’t see much hope of Winnie raising the NZF Party above the 5% threshold, people ara a bit sick of his dog whistling politics IMO.

      • They are on the rise going up every poll so far from 1% to 4.2% Some disaffected Nats and Labs would rather NZFirst than ACT. Also I think Social Credit on comeback trail too.

  7. The PM has the summer of discontent to contend with where Auckland wants to get out and the rest of the country want us locked away in covid hell. Endless ‘freedom’ protests and Auckland unable to get out of traffic light red. In traffic light red there is no super 12 rugby, sporting events, concerts and otherwise events over 100 shitkicked.

    And this is ignoring the building hyperinflation building. No point in giving the plebs 20 bucks more if a tank of gas increases by 30……

  8. Data out today shows 29 of 33 covid deaths were NOT caused by covid. One was shot dead in a murder on Friday, 28 others died of other reasons, heart disease etc.

    Covid has killed only FOUR people in New Zealand. 7,000 will die – what complete crap.

  9. Just looks like the pattern shown in history: a study by a couple of Italian academics looked at past plagues.
    https://www.knowledge.unibocconi.eu/notizia.php?idArt=22146

    They found that civil unrest very often results in civil unrest: “while the epidemic lasts the status quo and incumbent governments tend to consolidate, but warn that a sharp increase in social instability in the aftermath of the epidemic should be expected.”

    They put the unrest down to 3 causes:

    1. “the policy measures tend to conflict with the interest of people”

    2. “it may exacerbate inequality”

    3. “the psychological shock can induce irrational narratives on the causes and the spread of the disease”

    So, the rise in unrest in NZ is fairly predictable, plus add in the tendency of social media to inflame some of the narratives.

  10. Unfortunately over the next few months, many people will die or get long covid and most of them will be the anti lockdowners, anti vaxxers, and also against the present govt. Looking back when the next election happens, will this group still be as staunch in their anti-govt rhetoric, and if the vax have faired well, will Queen Jacinda ride back into town while national is still harping on about building MIQ facilities which would have turned out to be white elephants and the anti vaxx group will appear even more insignificant/ foolish

  11. Why would anyone take notice of a Curia poll especially one commissioned by the so-called ‘taxpayers union? seriously?
    When a Curia surveyor rang me once I berated them for working for such a disingenuous outfit. They hung up and never rang back.

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