The grim modeling demands acknowledgement.
At 90% vaccination, NZ would suffer 11400 hospitalizations and 1030 deaths.
That’s 90%, a rate seen no where else.
Anything less than 90% and those hospitalizations and death rates jump up by several times that size.
National are currently pushing for 70% – that would see 30 000+ hospitalizations and 3000+ dead.
I simply can’t see the majority of NZ agreeing to those mortality and sickness rates no matter the cost of lockdowns.
Add ACT into the mix and I suspect they actively want the sick to die so that it incentivizes the rest to work harder.
National and ACT do a great job of criticising Labour but to date haven’t put forward a plan that doesn’t require a huge number of deaths and sickness.
Your average angry ACT and National voter believes Delta is inevitable and only see them losing money from pointless lockdowns. They consider Jacinda too weak to allow her own citizens to die for the economy and so ACT & National in representing that venality have to push for a solution that doesn’t alert the middle to their desire for a mass culling of the weak via Covid.
The truth is not even National or ACT can sign off on 3000 dead and 30000 hospitalizations despite their angry supporters desire for a purge.
That’s why the only way National or ACT can win is if Labour fuck up because the Rights solutions are politically too toxic.
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