Shock Roy Morgan Poll: Labour slump


Roy Morgan tend to have a poor track record with Polling outside election time (their current claim of the Greens being on 12.5% for example seems ludicrous) but RM do pick trends and last nights Roy Morgan Poll will have Labour strategists gasping!

Labour down 6.5% to 38.5%
Green up 1.5% to 12.5%

National up 1% to 29.5%
ACT up 2.5% to 11.5%

Roy seems to over represent Greens while under representing NZ First.

Much to the shock of the woke, the Hate Speech legislation is going down as well as a cold cup of sick and thanks to proxification via social media, all those Woke screaming for the desire to start narking on fellow citizens social media is making those fellow citizens recoil in horror.

Drop a drip of power onto your average Middle Class Identity Politics Spinoff/Stuff subscriber and they mutate into a thousand Tiny Hitler’s, a phalanx of little sisters whose eyes gleam with the same Dogma Cult of Mao’s Cultural Revolution.

What we are seeing is woke fascism.

Under the Hate Speech powers being proposed, the first you will know there is a problem is a knock at the door by Police asking to interview you about what was in your heart when you wrote something on your Facebook page 2 years ago.

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In a cultural landscape of woke micro aggression policing, people will stop fearing minorities are facing hate speech and they will start fearing being accused of hate speech.

I’ve told you a thousand fucking times that we on the Left will be damaged by eroding free speech.

That damage starts now.

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  1. One thing to dwell on is what would this look like if National wasn’t a complete omnishambles.

    • Exactly.
      The next election was Labour’s to lose. They’re trying…

      I wonder how loudly robbo is laughing now, with his “Ho! Ho! Ho!” waste of parliamentary time. They need to get serious, and especially so, Marie Antoinette Robertson.

  2. Hard to say based on just ones poll and a Roy to Morgan at that but…

    Not delivering on your promises was fun to start with when NZ First was the big bad boogie man, then got a little disappointing, then got kinda familiar, then got to the point where you know they are simply not going to deliver on anything that matters. At that point for any government, times up!

    Throw in abysmally thought out hate speech legislation, make it 100 times worse by showing the nation both as Justice Minister and Prime Minister that you have not got a clue how laws are supposed to be drafted, how they are supposed to be coherent before a court ever sees them and then as PM, you get flippant at rightly addressed criticism when you shrug your shoulders as if to say, it’s not my problem.

    Jee zuss wept lady!

    Too many no shows, too much bungling, confidence flagging, and now opinion is solidifying.

  3. Dunno about free speech for the remaining lounge room TV watchers, and abusive online Nat boofheads, but I have sure used my share over many years in political and union activism–though not without being surveilled by odd dudes with cameras and fake plates, and regular menacing and “catch and release” arrests from the cops.

    To me the current free speech in New Zealand argument seems more like bigots wanting to retain their right to be bigots.

    • “…bigots wanting to retain their right to be bigots.”

      While that is a lazy and infantile characterisation, it is also precisely the point of free speech. It’s not about freedom to speak so long as we all agree on what is being said, it’s about people being able to say things that some people find downright offensive. That is what political pluralism is about. Get over it and if you want total unanimity of opinion, go to North Korea or Saudi Arabia.

      • Antoine Forbes-Hamilton: “….it’s about people being able to say things that some people find downright offensive.”

        Exactly. And being able to say those things without censorship or restraint. After all, one person’s bigot is another person’s straight shooter.

        • Theoretical free speech can be rather different than practising it, which some of us have done in public through our adult lives rather than cowering by the BBQ pit, muttering into beer cans with fellow good ol’ boys.

          Say what you like–but be prepared for a reaction is my take on free speech.

    • Sounds like you haven’t got a grasp on exactly whats at stake with the new H8 speech laws

  4. Comes as absolutely no surprise unfortunately. And it isn’t JUST the free speech issue, but that’s a symptom of it. Constantly trying to control the narrative through spin and PR (whether by politicians or ‘officials’ with growing numbers of spin meisters ) when growing numbers are experiencing something different on the ground eventually catches up with them. Establishing a Labour ‘brand’ when trying to get elected through marketing, PR and spin is one thing. Adhering to the principles of that brand once elected is another.
    Labour unfortunately is frittering its large mandate because there’s a growing perception they’re being disingenuous over a number of issues. Health (vaccination rollouts), Housing, Education, Immigration, Labour and Worker Exploitation. There’s constant bullshit happening, and it’s becoming obvious.
    Thank God the gNats are such a mess, and let’s hope they disintegrate.
    In words GR might understand: Labour might have strong fundamentals, however they may be facing headwinds when the messages and spin doesn’t match the reality on the ground going forward. Ultimately it’ll come down to the public’s desire to continue to swallow rhubarb and custard for what we’re told is the greater good and when the alternative is dead rats.

    Some of the Ministers are over-worked, some bloody useless, and some MPs under utilised.

    • OnceWasTim you’re on to it!
      For anyone with eyes and ears that work, it’s obvious that this whole show is fake. Don’t forget she worked in the office of Tony Blair.

    • “Thank God the gNats are such a mess, and let’s hope they disintegrate”

      While they are not at the top of their game, isn’t this proposition largely another product of the “spin meisters” you mention? Every time Labour does or says something dumb, which is very frequently, we hear the paid-off media chorus singing in unison “Look, the Nats are falling to pieces.” Seymour will pick up the pieces regardless, imo.

      • Possibly, although I’d rather rely on what the likes of Chris Finlayson think of them. And of course he’s too diplomatic to let rip with what he really thinks.

        • OnceWasTim: “…the likes of Chris Finlayson think of them.”

          I read Finlayson’s comments on the Todd Muller case. He agreed with Collins’ actions. He’s urged former fellow caucus members to stop with the leaking. And he’s correct: leaking of that sort was exactly what was happening in Labour, after Cunliffe took the leadership, prior to the 2014 election. Remember the ABC club? I surely do.

          I think that there’s some truth to the suggestion that the Natz have fallen victim to media spin. In any event, were they elected, they couldn’t possibly do a worse job than the current lot, who are by a country mile the most inept government I can recall in all of my longish life.

      • “Seymour will pick up the pieces regardless, imo.
        Yes I can see him “dancing with the stars”again. In regards to his policies, other than gun’s guns and more guns, he has nothing.

    • Tim – I laughed last night when I saw the PM earnestly espousing that all the over 65’s should have had some sort of communication about the covid vaccine by now. Of course we should have, but earnest espousals achieve zilch.

      It’s what this government has subjected our children to that I will simply never forgive them for.

      • It’s what this government has subjected our children to that I will simply never forgive them for.


        I got into politics because of child poverty I am now the PM and I am also the minister for child poverty.

        You ask what I have done.


        • yep. Well it’s hard to swallow the failures I know – especially when there’s SO much a government with the mandate it has COULD have done in the 4 or so years they’ve been in office.
          I laugh like hell (like SnowWhite) when I see and hear a lot of things Labour is doing, or I’d be crying. The funniest thing I saw recently was Grant Robertson’s contribution in media – to the effect that thinking of the plebians was the correct thing to do. (Can’t find the link at the mo’ sorry tho’ I’ll post it if/when I find it – although I’m not sure he’s worth the effort yet – I’m sure he’ll cope though even if the next Roy Morgan shows another downward trend).

        • Michael. Right now, today, Stuff is headlining our hospitals being swamped with babies, new born babies, afflicted with the deadly RSV virus outbreak, and in fact, other viruses. These are not the children of the 1%’ers, they are the children of the poor, and the people who leave sick preschoolers in care, to infect or get infected, and bring that infection back to others in their homes, because both parents are out in the paid workforce, and need to be, often working at two or more jobs to keep families afloat. Sometimes one carer comes home when the other departs for work, which is a far from an ideal stable family nest.

          If there are MP’s children or grand children in this situation, then they should stand and say so, but their offspring are the privileged ones with the resources to provide buffers against the slings and arrows which assault the vulnerable people at the bottom, about whose lives most politicians haven’t a clue, nor care. They are expendable, ergo they don’t matter, cheap imports can be brought in to replace them. It’s ruthless, and a terrible trauma to be inflicting upon babies. The doctors say the deadly virus hasn’t peaked yet.

          We used to lead the world in baby care and infant mortality, but now those infants who survive also run the risk of being battered or murdered in world leading numbers – I think New Zealand heads the OECD in abusing and killing our little ones. Mothers are being sent out of hospitals with nasal tubes to feed babies who are unable to feed normally. This is almost unbelievable. Long gone are the days of Truby King, and mother and baby hospitals available to help establish good feeding and optimum child care – no-one cares now.

          I believed Ardern when she said that climate change was her government’s nuclear moment. It sounded good. I was sceptical when she announced an end to child poverty, because child poverty is part of major societal problems which require not just the will to get them sorted, but addressing broad- based systemic issues of which adequate housing is just one, and one which successive governments have been hopeless at addressing. There will have been parents who believed her. Worse, there are small children getting the message that they don’t matter, when they do, every single one of them, and they are being badly let down.

          Any sort of deprivation in early life can scar for life, is totally myopic policy, and a self-evident fact irrelevant to pollies concerned only with getting themselves back up Bowen Street and sitting warm – smiling.

        • Michal and Snow White: “…It’s what this government has subjected our children to that I will simply never forgive them for.”

          Ditto ditto.

      • Well there’s no doubt the vaccine rollout – at least in Capital and Coast’s domain is a complete bloody shambles. Wouldn’t mind hearing Ian Powell’s take on the reasons for it, bit so far all I’ve seen is the DHB and Min of Health’s bean counters shunting blame between each other.
        A year or so ago when the grand plan was being devised, I was told I was in Group 2 (because of age, health and voluntary employment). That morphed somehow into Group 3, and it’s been downhill ever since to the extent I don’t really expect to be vaccinated before sometime in August, if then.
        Funny (not as in haha funny) when you know of a mid 20-something getting vaccinated when their intent as a PR is to immediately decamp permanently to Dubai.
        Not the only instance btw. I’m a close contact of a close contact who’s just been self-isolating for the past 14 days and been privy to DHB and MoH and Healthline communications. I probably should have recorded them. Truly fucking funny – it’s what kept us both ROFLing

  5. It’t not a shock result, it’s entirely predictable when popular labour starts to criminalise people’s thoughts and everyday ideas while subsidising more and more rich polluters and wannabe developers in NZ, while telling everyone else their is no money for nurses wages, social good or what have you. It is the new trickle down approach that wasn’t popular last time.

  6. Sounds like Mordor is in the sleepy hobbit warren. Here’s how the UK is arresting and criminalising people for these crimes before sometimes letting them go, sometimes they have to have a retrial.

    On 13 October 2001, Harry Hammond, an evangelist, was arrested and charged under section 5 of the Public Order Act (1986) because he had displayed to people in Bournemouth a large sign bearing the words “Jesus Gives Peace, Jesus is Alive, Stop Immorality, Stop Homosexuality, Stop Lesbianism, Jesus is Lord”. In April 2002, a magistrate convicted Hammond, fined him £300, and ordered him to pay costs of £395.[15][16][17]

    On 2 September 2006, Stephen Green was arrested in Cardiff for distributing pamphlets which called sexual activity between members of the same sex a sin. On 28 September 2006, the Crown advised Cardiff Magistrates Court that it would not proceed with the prosecution.[18][19]

    On 8 December 2009, Mr Justice Richard Clancy, sitting at Liverpool Magistrates’ Court, acquitted Ben and Sharon Vogelenzang, hoteliers, of charges under the Public Order Act 1986 and under the Crime and Disorder Act 1998. The Vogelensangs were charged after a guest at their hotel, Ericka Tazi, complained that the Vogelenzangs had insulted her after she appeared in a hijab.[20]

    On 4 March 2010, a jury returned a verdict of guilty against Harry Taylor, who was charged under Part 4A of the Public Order Act 1986. Taylor was charged because he left anti-religious cartoons in the prayer-room of Liverpool’s John Lennon Airport on three occasions in 2008. The airport chaplain, who was insulted, offended, and alarmed by the cartoons, called the police.[21][22][23] On 23 April 2010, Judge Charles James of Liverpool Crown Court sentenced Taylor to a six-month term of imprisonment suspended for two years, made him subject to a five-year Anti-Social Behaviour Order (ASBO) (which bans him from carrying religiously offensive material in a public place), ordered him to perform 100 hours of unpaid work, and ordered him to pay £250 costs. Taylor was convicted of similar offences in 2006.[24]

    On 20 April 2010, police arrested Dale McAlpine, a Christian preacher, of Workington in Cumbria, for saying that homosexual conduct was a sin. On 14 May 2010, the Crown decided not to prosecute McAlpine.[25] Later still the police apologised to McAlpine for arresting him at all, and paid him several thousand pounds compensation.[26]

    On 23 April 2018, Scottish YouTuber Mark Meechan of Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire was fined £800 after being found “grossly offensive” for posting a YouTube video that was viewed over 3 million times depicting him training his girlfriend’s pug to respond to the phrase “Sieg Heil” by lifting his paw in a Nazi salute. [27] Tory MP Philip Davies requested a review of freedom of expression in parliament in response to the conviction.[28] Comedians Ricky Gervais and David Baddiel tweeted in support of Meechan.[29][30][31] Tom Walker, Shappi Khorsandi, and Stephen Fry defended Meechan and criticised other comedians for their silence on the issue.[32][33][34] Meechan, who plans to appeal, was sentenced to pay an £800 fine on 23 April 2018.[35][36] A crowd of about 500 people protested the move in London.[37]

    In 2017, 19-year old Croxteth resident Chelsea Russell quoted a line from Snap Dogg’s song “I’m Trippin’” on her Instagram page. The line, which read “Kill a snitch nigga, rob a rich nigga”, was copied from a friend’s page as part of a tribute to Frankie Murphy who was killed in a car accident at age 13.[38][39] Hate crime investigators were alerted to the presence of the slur and charged Russell with “sending a grossly offensive message by means of a public electronic communications network”. Defence lawyer Carole Clarke stated that she received a request from one of the arresting officers that the word “nigga”, the subject of the trial, not be used in court.[40] In April 2018, District Judge Jack McGarva found Russell guilty and delivered a sentence which included a £585 fine, a curfew and an ankle monitoring bracelet.[41] However, Russell’s conviction was overturned by Liverpool Crown Court on 21 February 2019.[42]

    Do middle NZ want police bursting into their houses because they left some church scripture on facebook or Johnny junior sings a popular rap song or protesters start swearing at police? Weird how fraudsters can’t be investigated in NZ due to lack of interest, but little Johnny will be able to, as a big priority.

    Jane Kelsey, Bomber, Leslie Bravery, John Minto and Marie Bradley are all people who may be interrogated or charged under the laws as they may offend someone or make other groups feel fearful with their speeches….

    • Your last para – yes.
      And, Martyn’s been there before, that time under the Nats.
      Then it was the rawshark brigade who were being watched (anyone else have unexplained computer interference during that time?)
      Now, under this govt, it will be… Anyone they want!!!
      It is insane.
      And if anyone has a right to be very very angry at the proposed legislation, it would be your tdb ed who’s been there already.

  7. Are polls really relevant at the moment, nah! especially when we don’t have a very credible main opposition and that main opposition has a has-been as a leader and her party does not appear at present to have anyone capable of leading.

    • Now that Seymour has overtaken Collins as preferred P.M. albeit our existing P.M. is at 55 %, do you think National M.P.’s xmas barbecues will be brought forward?

  8. Are polls really relevant at the moment, nah! especially when we don’t have a very credible main opposition and that main opposition has a has-been as a leader and her party does not appear at present to have anyone capable of leading.

  9. Are polls really relevant at the moment, nah! especially when we don’t have a very credible main opposition and that main opposition has a has-been as a leader and her party does not appear at present to have anyone capable of leading.

  10. As the years roll by, Orwell’s 1984 looks increasingly prophetic. I wonder whether Labour truly realise the danger they’re in here? Probably not, the social media bubbles we all live in now all seem to work heavily against the signalling and electorate pulse measuring that used to go on. In short, if you’re already “woke” you only talk to your fellow wokester.

    What I find a farce with this proposed legislation (and this shows the lack of quality in the Labour caucus) is that Labour thought it was a good idea for the police to define what a thought crime is…how absurdly ridiculous is that?

  11. It would be interesting to know what Labour’s own recent UMR poll shows, I haven’t seen anything mentioned anywhere.

  12. I loath Labour but I loath Labour less than I loath national. National are a conglomerate of pure and unadulterated arse holes. National’s blatant fascism in a frock i.e. capitalist democracy, is showing stains and wear from being fondled by crooked business for generations and as a direct result of that, we’re all only just living in a rare and beautiful country which could be so much more than many can imagine.
    Labour will be being manipulated from the shadows by powerful business entities from both here and abroad.
    peter thiel? Heard of? No? Then you’re not paying fucking attention.
    Labour, without our staunch and direct support, must acquiesce to those powers while trying to do the right thing we, the us. I think Adern and her crew are fundamentally good people. I really do.
    A solution? Since we live in the 21st century it’s no longer fashionable to riot in the streets. A great pity in my opinion. The only way to reign in privateer and powerful, well monied influences over our politics is to deprive the monied of their ( our ) money. And how do we do that, in AO/NZ?
    Well, what/who’s AO/NZ’s primary industry? The Warehouse? No. Auckland’s cafe’s ? No. Wellington’s polite, flouncy LBGTQZ- T+P=WOOPSIE’s? No. ( WOOPSIE? Meaning. Womin Of Orange Politely Supporting Intelligent Elephants. See? It is a thing. Raspberries to you’s doubters. ) Could it be real estate agents? No. Banksters? God no. Accountants? No. Cops? No. Non of those. It’s our farmers. Yes. It is. Unpalatable to the urban ignorant many but it doesn’t change the facts.
    So why the FUCK are our farmers still the dark dirty little secret playthings to the Natzo’s?
    Labour has made ZERO attempt to lure our primary industry reps over to the undeniable protections of we, the urban numbers. Why? That must be the most important question of all, surely? ( damian O’conner…Seriously? He’s the minister in charge of our most vital industry? Really? I mean really? That’s like having a Tele Tubby as chief pilot on the flight deck of a stealth bomber! A paper bag full of mouldy mushrooms could do a better job! )
    Why do the Natzo’s still have our farmers by the balls/Labia? Our primary industry farmers who not only earn our export derived foreign exchange but they also provide us with the foods we must eat daily.
    If farmers suddenly disappeared from the face of the earth we’d be literally eating each other by the end of the week. Our pets would have been barbecued days ago.
    Does any of the above strike you as being odd in any way? I’d welcome opinions?
    Or are you all just like these guys?
    Truly mesmerising yet sobering in many, many ways.
    Sheep are wonderful, intelligent wee beasties and eating them must eventually be seen as abhorrent but my God! Their fluff is wonderful, warm, dry and classy to wear.
    Sheep, once shorn, enjoy being shorn. They don’t necessarily like being tipped upside down by some rude bodice ripper then after a brief periods of strange stranglings and tinglings are flung outside naked without the kissing. But once divested of their winter woolies they run about as happy as can be without cocaine.
    I read a funny story a few years ago about a farmer who had a quite a large flock of Angora goats. He, and his dog, went off to muster them down from the hills to shear but they barely moved when the dog ran up to them. The dog was mystified as to why the goats gave not one fuck??? The dog didn’t know that the goats had just come back from grazing on a huge plot of Dope they found up in the bush. They were all stoned as, man.
    Sheep farmers? To avoid traumatising your animals with the mustering and shearing process feed them a few bales of Pot? ( Now? Doesn’t that seem like a mad idea? Is that a clue as to how fenced in our thinking is? No wonder we’re so easily manipulated and exploited by rich, natzo arse holes. )

  13. Agree Upside Down.
    Government policy left to the Police to interpret because the politicians that want to introduce it cannot?
    Police state here we come.
    Jacinda will now as predicted engage reverse gear.

    • John – “Interpret because the politicians… cannot ? “ No. Interpret because the politicians don’t want to have to. Far easier to evade responsibility by saying it’s a matter for the police, and let the police cop the flak, because the politicians lack the moral fibre and the brains, and they may have other agendas simmering away.

      Legally, and constitutionally, it looks quite an interesting issue and could be challenged as such.

  14. Reminder: Under this proposed law they will not simply mess around by freezing your bank account, they will throw you in jail. Maybe you’ll get bail – how high will they set it?
    WHY? Because someone somewhere decided you were somehow “inciting hatred”, which in itself is a judgement requiring whatever legal case to be built around it, – lawyers would profit. If you cannot afford one, then you cannot afford to speak your mind freely.
    Please, wake up, people.

  15. One of the problems with Labour and Jacinda’s declining popularity is that they seem to think that the media has a handle on reporting… and this has created a climate of whinging business owners who think that the government has to provide them staff in NZ.

    You have to wonder why the government and media don’t question why staff in established restaurants keep leaving……. maybe they are shitty employers, they changed the menu or existing staff had differences of opinions and standards which is why they leave???

    Covid-19 worker shortage: Auckland restaurants Cassia, Sidart, French Cafe, forced to close for two weeks

    Not mentioned the main point is that French Cafe was sold recently , the new owners have bought a high value restaurant brand and now are clearly not able to retain quality staff for that brand and have changed the menu!

    “Because Sidart is similar to The French Cafe, the Sahrawats say they will change Sidart’s focus to Indian food, as it is with Cassia.

    But Sidart will remain more formal. Its menu changes from July 31.

    Sid said while The French Cafe’s operation would keep its usual format, he would also change the menu to reflect his style of cooking.

    “It will be more reflective of the flavours and the ingredients I like to cook with.”

    NZ are tired of these business owners and media stories continually moaning to government because they can’t retain staff. Close one restaurant is the solution, employ a better recruitment consultant, and increase wages are all issues that somehow seem to be lacking in practicality – but instead this type of stupid new article seems close to Jacinda’s heart and she comments on it…

    Labour, why worry about historic torture of kids in NZ or kids in emergency care and housing, leaky apartments, poor engineering and cheating in universities, ransomeware taking down DHB’s, when you can worry about some new owners staffing issues!

    Getting Tired and will continue to get tireder as election comes close! Out of touch!

      • The number of Utu cases was alarming 5 or 6 years ago @saveNZ. Despite various people trying to alert what we knew would be an incoming gummint to it all, there’s actually SFA that’s changed – some things are actually worse.
        But then there’s the giggler in charge who seems to be the teacher’s pet even though the dog keeps eating his homework and there’s not much left of that can that keeps getting licked down the road.

  16. The flaky world we live in means a National coalition after the next election is a possibility.

    We want free speech and an ability to say whatever we like, but we don’t want hate speech and we aren’t happy to have anyone besides ourselves define exactly what hate speech is.

    We don’t want all the land from Hamilton to Wellsford to be covered in houses but we don’t want six storey apartment blocks in Auckland.

    We want the price of houses to go down so everyone who wants one can afford one but we want the house we own to increase in value by millions.

    We want motels to not be used for emergency housing but we want everyone to be housed somewhere. We don’t want any homeless but we want everyone kicked out of motel housing.

    We want the Government to butt out of everything but we want the Government to get in, take control and get things done.

    We want the Government to be decisive, just get in and do things and not piss around with talking but we demand consultation and have nothing done without that.

    We want them to get best advice but we want to bitch about them spending money on consultation.

    etc., etc., etc.

    We may as well give Act and National a go. If we’re as stuffed as we seem to be we deserve the flagellation they would provide. Just imagine, David Seymour, the new darling, could be the next PM.

    • What a thoughtful summation Peter.
      We appear to be a want society but only if it benefits us and not others.

  17. How ironic that this story is one the same TDB eadline page ads John Minto’s story on lack of housing. I wonder if there is a connection?..naaaah can’t possibly be.

  18. Funny thing these polls. Key and his gangsters never dropped in these so called polls until near the end of their third term and the ” Labour ‘vote kept down around 29 % and never moved except down in eight years and they did some unpopular things.
    Now the current Labour sort of government drops like a stone and its not all down to speech.
    These things are fixed and a tool for propaganda.

  19. The minister of health was quoted today as saying he cant get out there and do it himself. After so many misteps and misleading status reports from the health ministry by now as the minister I would be out there doing it myself. Just another mistake that makes Labour look out of touch. Just another nail in the coffin. Its a bit like promising the first stage of light rail would be complete about now and just a week ago forming a group to get the public onside with the idea of light rail. A public that were asking where light rail went? Another nail in the coffin.

  20. Post Script: I’m told that the latest UMR poll is quite damaging to Labour, which is why the main numbers haven’t been published. Instead media have spun the story about Seymore overtaking Collins.

    • You need a reliable source of information, whoever told you that is talking crap. Every media man and his dog got the story right. This is exactly about Seymour overtaking Collins, no matter how YOU spin it.

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