Latest TVNZ Poll – Winners & Losers

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LABOUR – 49%

NATIONAL – 27%

GREENS – 9% 

ACT – 8%

MAORI PARTY – 2%

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WINNERS:

ACT – The most interesting part of this poll is that ACT didn’t come off the high of election night. They aren’t bleeding any support back to National, that suggests an enormous shockwave on the right that still isn’t being politically digested. Their incredible election night victory isn’t a fluke and it wasn’t a protest vote, that’s ACT base support now.

Māori Party – Managed to build and stay relevant.

Greens – Have picked up more disgruntled Labour Party vote.

Labour – It really does say something right now about the Labour Party that they go backwards in this poll, AND YET would still see a majority Government on these numbers!

LOSERS:

National – Managing to claw back 2% after the worst political result in their entire history makes a dead cat bounce look spectacular. Judith is dead but hasn’t been told by David Farrar yet.

Jacinda’s personal popularity – The gnawing frustration of Covid is making people resentful now and it’s turning on Jacinda.

CONCLUSION:

TVNZ have changed their polling methodology by removing Landline’s altogether from their polls which shows you how quickly technology is shifting to favour the opinions of Gen Xers & Millennials. Boomer political vote is now losing even the methodology of harvesting the opinion, so large do Gen X + Millennial votes now loom.

This changing population dynamic hurts National most.

Barring a catastrophic change of fate, Labour + Greens are on track to form the next Government in 2023, but the action will be taking place on the right where I see ACT cannibalising the National Party vote and by doing so further polarise the political debate.

I think 2026 will be open ideological warfare.

 

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8 COMMENTS

  1. Mostly correct although I can’t see Act as a winner because they failed to move a dime. The big winner here is Labour and the Blairite. Months of stuff ups at the border, pointless lockdowns and no actual policy on big NZ issues and wait for it, they move (ignoring the move towards the Greens) 2% backwards.

    We can safely assume the cult of (little) Aotearoa shows no signs of diminishing coupled with the continued lag of covidmania that is being displayed just as strongly in Australia as State results and polls demonstrate.

  2. Before the raft of Nat supporters tell us the sky is falling in for Labour, it aint. They’re just a tiny bit less shit than National, thats all.

    But Jacinda is going to keep dropping for two reasons;

    1, There will be more lockdowns in Auckland because Auckland remains the gateway for importing the virus and the government does not have the imagination nor can it be bothered mitigating the risk. And Aucklanders are over it!

    2, Despite being gifted a majority government she has decided to squander that rare opportunity by doing nothing rather than addressing some of the biggest challenges facing this country. You have an inkling that this bunch of comfortable middle class career politicians have no idea. You suspect there is no plan. You are beginning to conclude she is all talk, no action. Lightrail anyone? You know, based on her utterances on housing, that she quite simply does not get it

    Yes, tampons in schools is really neat but actually housing in this country is destroying it.
    Yes raising the minimum wage helps but it’s off the back off business and it has a 5 minute effect before housing eats it up.
    Yes Pharmac was once a good idea but its more or less fixed budget has turned into a health hazard. Supplying some of the best mid 20th century medicines it’s strangled budget can afford, when cost cutting isn’t killing people is never the answer and definitely not in 2021. But you can’t see it.

    We vote in government’s to govern, not to go for a ride. Not for those elected to be told by bureaucrats what to think and what to do.

    The solidifying effect in year four of Jacindas leadership is a rather scary prospect. Was Phil Twyford in fact not a one off anomaly but a clone of Labours talent pool?

  3. Spot on XRay. Labour’s popularity is good news and bad news.
    Good News because for all their flaws they are the only alternative to National and ACT.
    Bad news because they are the only alternative to National and ACT

  4. ‘Barring a catastrophic change of fate, Labour + Greens are on track to form the next Government in 2023’

    Have you been paying close attention, Martyn?

    Collapse is upon us (at last, after many false starts and over a decade of propping up the system via money-printing ad fracking etc,) US10YT have surged in recent weeks.

    It’s not just financial-economic collapse, but also environmental collapse:

    ‘Beijing is under attack from the weather as a giant sandstorm engulfs the city. Desertification is inching closer and even the Party can’t prevent such climate onslaughts. It is their worst sandstorm in a decade and flights in and out of the region have had to be abandoned.’

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/109525/us-data-positive-china-posts-big-economic-data-gains-not-all-it-first-seems-beijing-hit

    Over half of the US is in drought, and about one third is in severe drought. And it’s only March!

    https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

    We can talk about the fast-disappearing Arctic ice in August.

  5. Why would National voters be concerned when we are currently being governed by a centre right government? Let’s face it, nothing much will change anyway, just more of the same.

  6. For years Labour telling everyone they cant enact something because their support partners wont tow the line and here they are governing alone and still cant. I used to support Labour but Im sick and tired of their BS now

  7. POST ELECTION

    Left – Labour 50 now 49. Greens 8, now 9. Still 59.

    Right – National 25.6 to 27 and ACT 7.6 to 8. From 33.6 to 35.

    At one level this is an impressive gain by the right 1.4% over 3 months becomes 4.2% over a year and 12.2% over 3 years. 33.6 to 45.8%. Not a win but a good re-posiitioning for 2026.

    At another, all they are doing is picking some stray Conservative flotsom and and Labour and Greens can sail away leaving them dead in the water, off the foils.

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