As TDB has been pointing out since the beginning of this pandemic, Covid is far larger and more problematic than many of us seem to comprehend right now.
Bloomberg are in no way shape or form card carrying members of the left, they are raw data crunchers for the elites and their research on current vaccine roll outs warn that we won’t get back to ‘normal’ for 7 more years!!!
Bloomberg has built the biggest database of Covid-19 vaccines given around the world and, by their calculations, it will take seven years.
Number-crunchers at the publication say it will take that long to reach leading US doctor Anthony Fauci’s estimate for the herd immunity threshold of 75 per cent of people inoculated globally.
7 years and that is best case scenario to get to 75% global herd immunity.
There is much that go wrong.
Poor vaccine roll outs, insufficient supply of the vaccine and the new mutations out of the UK and South Africa are so contagious that the UKs current lock down regime, which creates a 30% reduction in transmission, will actually see a 30% increase in infections from the new mutation!
The rest of the planet is faring just as poorly and most health systems are now close to capacity and exhaustion.
The euphoria of the vaccination announcement in late 2020 utterly underplayed the lack of public health infrastructure in America, the new mutation’s contagiousness and the fact that a global 75% herd immunity will need to be an annual immunisation event if it is to mean anything.
The economic whiplash hasn’t hit us yet and the full death count hasn’t even begun.
The difference between this pandemic and previous pandemics is that 24 hour air travel can re-infect a country or geographic area over and over again, rather than allow it to slowly die out as previous pandemics have.
What does that mean for us in NZ?
The naked truth is that we don’t have capacity to widen the border safely and if the virus gets through, Labour will be blamed if the track-trace can’t stop us going back into another lockdown.
All that political gratitude to Jacinda for keeping us safe would immediately evaporate if public service incompetence is seen as a conflating factor in any new outbreak.
That all adds up to one thing, the border has little chance of opening before 2024.
That means exploited migrant workers, exploited international students and hyper tourism will be banned from returning which is problematic to NZ because much of our economy is based on those flawed economic models.
This in turn demands a vision from the Government that goes well beyond simply keeping the virus out.
Does Labour have that vision?
No. no they do not.
All the Government’s energy is being spent keeping us safe, there is no plan to rebuild, there is no plan to adapt. This would be a problem if any other political party had a vision, but none of them do, so Jacinda’s position is only threatened by another outbreak combined with an incompetent response.
If you think Covid will be dealt with this year, I don’t think you are paying attention.
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