1: The ongoing Pandemic
The Covid Pandemic looks like it is reaching out of control proportions in America and Europe. We will not be safe until there is a vaccine and the soonest that is possible is 2022. The ongoing need to build broader and more secure border capacity while maintaining stringent track and trace programs will demand the Governments attention above all other things. Keeping us safe has been Labour’s most powerful argument to remain in power, the moment they lose that, they lose the trust of the unforgiving public. International student exploitation, migrant worker exploitation and hyper tourism can not be a solution.
2: 100 day Policy Platform
Labour need to inoculate themselves from criticism on the Left with a mix of symbolic gestures and direct initiatives like lifting welfare and increasing sick days as part of their first 100 day policy programme. If there isn’t enough reform and transformation in those first 100 days, cynicism towards Jacinda’s kindness will be the first casualty.
3: Trump meltdown & possible Chinese aggression
Best case scenario is Trump loses in a landslide, but the worst case scenario is Trump wins a shallow majority on the night, declares victory before the mail in votes are cast and plunges the country into civil turmoil which China exploits by militarily enforcing South China Sea sovereignty. How would NZ respond to an America imploding with a China exploding?
4: Climate Change Summer from hell
We are currently in an accelerated warming spike which will see extreme heat and droughts followed by destructive cyclones which will damage drought wrecked land. The hollowness of being carbon neutral by 2050 will never look so shallow.
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