Labour – 47%
National – 32%
ACT – 8%
Greens – 6%
NZF – 2%
TOP – 2%
New Conservatives – 1%
Advance – 1%
13% don’t knows still make this an open issue, but with almost half a million early voters, Judith is running out of room to convince people to vote National.
ACT vote is holding up and that will concern National, and the Left must back the Greens to ensure they limp home over the threshold.
The wasted vote will help push Labour up.
It will be a Labour-Green Government with the possibility of the Māori Party causing an overhang of they win more electorate seats than Party vote.
ACT are an enemy for 2023.
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Yes indeed, fear not Kemosabe ! Labour and the Greens will form a coalition govt this election! And I believe party voting Green will ensure that coalition. It will be expected that there will be swings and roundabouts leading up to the election regards polls, but all in all it is a Labour Green coalition shaping up just nicely.
And this will be Nationals turn in the wilderness…
Marty Robbins – “Dusty Winds”
https://youtu.be/uicy9wFuNvU?t=45
Bugger the polls I am still voting NZF
….and someone I know who used to vote Green will be voting ACT…over the freedom of speech issue
What ever happens the masks have to come off
hahaha priceless
….and two others I know who have voted Labour all their lives are voting NZF and NZF … and NZF and NZF….go figure
Act 8%!! Hahaha! Seriously!
Yeah, not all that surprising Judith isn’t convincing many to vote National – she has a sort of anti-charisma, but then again, I thought the same of The John Key and everyone seemed to love it. Anyway, as a fan of democracy, I like having a strong opposition, so will still probably vote ACT at this point. If Labour is in danger of losing, I’ll switch to Labour because any Government with Judith at the helm is the stuff of nightmares.
RNZ propaganda saying Labour NEED the Greens. No name of the presstitute that wrote that B.S to be held responsible for it.
Yes RNZ is very biased and needs a complete overhaul…there is never anything good on NZF or Winston Peters either….but generally there is a complete blackout on NZF policies…they run like a pack…who knows who the puppet master is ?
…as for USA politics the RNZ ( especially Morning Report) reportage is hackneyed, secondhand, biased and pro the corrupt Democrat Party
….also absolutely nothing on JUlian Assange….you would think he never existed
…is this corruption of the State media? NZers are being poorly served imo
(there are some exceptions…JIm Mora on Sundays for example )
Colmar Brunton are not a reliable poll. I’m sure National tanked more than -1, and I think Labour is stronger than 47. Also, if 23% really think Collins is fit to be PM according to their poll, then things are more fucked up than ever. I prefer the Reid research poll from Newshub, they are more accurate.
Yes you are absolutely correct. Colmar Brunton, the most neutral and most commercially oriented polling company is way off! In reality, National tanked by at least 25% to under 10% and Labour is probably on 75%….if not 80%.
Truth is, the conservative voters don’t declare themselves until they can quietly vote. That’s because it’s just not cool to say you are conservative, and if they do so, they get horribly slaughtered in the most vicious way by woke lefties on woke media platforms. Here they come…
Paulinator,
My bias aside, I’m 100% with you. I don’t accept for a second that 23% of New Zealanders have the despicable and totally untrustworthy Collins as the preferred Prime Minister. If that’s correct then Billy TK would be on 25%. It’s that ridiculous and that unbelievable. That leaves only two possible scenarios. The people being polled are no reflection whatsoever of the NZ population….or 25% (1 million people) of Kiwis are raving fucking lunatics who would have happily followed Rev Jim Jones to Guyana in 1978.
Ardern is swamped by big numbers of mostly adoring and appreciative supporters all over NZ every day of the campaign trail. Unprecedent scenes.
Collins on the other hand has to stage the scene with some of her own people just so it appears the street is not in level 4 lockdown. That coming only days after her farcical and 100% contrived praying in a church. Collins has been repeatedly exposed for the outdated, unscrupulous, diabolical and divisive person she is and that’s even without our alleged media addressing an entire chapter of the book Dirty Politics with Cameron Slater and her significant connection to Chinese business with all that entails.
It’s my contention and a reasonable one that if the 23% rating of Collins is incorrect, then the other numbers are also incorrect. I have Labour at 52% and National at 27%. I only poll National that high as we know many National supporters would still vote National even if their leader was Billy TK.
I would very happily wager my 1.8 million dollar family home on the fact Labour will Govern alone. National are in for an unprecedented drubbing. Collins will have absolutely no say whatsoever in being arseholed out as National Party leader which will occur within 48 hours of the election night result.
What needs to happen in future is these polls need a total revamp to drag back some relevance and credibility. The farcical TV debates also require a complete change of format and the removal of the absurd status quo of vested interest media commentators farcically declaring Collins the debate winner when even Blind Freddy could see that was not the case.
If my confident election outcome result is incorrect, I will come back to this site on Sunday 18th October and admit I was wrong and then never post on this blog again.
Jacindafan
I totally agree with your numbers and your theories, I am also thinking that way.
However, I also like Herman’s assertion that National is at 10% and Labour is at 80% and that the poll is neutral. LOL.
You’re becoming more intolerant as this election gets close to a mutilated end. We live in a democracy not a socialist republic and labelling us on the right as all ‘deplorables’ because we don’t subscribe to your obsession with the PM isn’t an educated argument.
My challenge to you is to convince me that stripping away the emotion, personality, celebrity and covid19 what policies is the PM and Labour actually standing for that will improve the life of everyday NZers at this election.
Rather than insult me, convince me
Frank the Tank,
As I get older, I become less tolerant of certain things. At the top of that list is bullshit. You’ve never been abusive but you are passive / aggressive and that’s not a personality type that I’m especially fond of.
I’ve said multiple times on this blog that despite being a fan / supporter / admirer of Ardern, that is not unconditional support. I’m light years away from being obsessed with her. When you throw that fluff at me, I immediately put you in a category worthy of contempt only. Ardern is not a celebrity to me and I’ve never been a hero worshipper. Her personality on the other hand is a different ballgame. I find her to be extremely intelligent, a great communicator, thoughtful, trustworthy, kind, inclusive and respectful toward all others even those mocking her. If you are unable to see or value those blatantly obvious attributes, it’s utterly pointless trying to educate or convince you. The reason you can’t see and value them is either a direct result of your own limitations and or bias. To many, Ardern represents the enemy and that fact alone prevents them from ever seeing and valuing her for her long list of positive personal attributes. As a rule, I dislike all politicians and trust them about as much as I would a $2 Shop Rolex Watch and do so for good reason. That is not the case with Ardern.
During the previous Governments turn at bat, I became increasingly disillusioned with the direction they were taking NZ. I was seeing the impact of it more every day as were many others. That was not the country I wanted to leave behind for my kids and grandkids. Any Government that promotes a “them and us” and values money over it’s people will never end well. This is where the importance of personality types was up in lights. People like Judith Collins ran vicious vendetta and smear campaigns against her enemies using the reprehensible Camera Slater as her wingman. This was known about across all levels of the National Party Government and was condoned because it suited their needs. Even then PM John Key had strong links to Slater.
When confronted with the carnage they were creating, Key and others either flatly denied it, showed complete indifference to the growing number of kiwis being disadvantaged by their policies or they just didn’t recall. The only things they cared about were money, power and creating the farcical illusion of a rock star economy by any means.
Our beautiful country desperately needed a completely different personality type to lead the way. An intelligent, young, vibrant, progressive, caring person who knew the importance of being inclusive and honest. A person who would do all they could to achieve their ambitious goals and own any errors made along the way. Ardern is that person.
The Ardern Government has made errors as that’s what human beings do. Not all humans own them but Ardern sure has. That is not something most Kiwis have ever seen before from bean counting politicians / PM’s.
I don’t believe Andrew Little was a good party leader. Ardern was dropped in the deep end very late in the piece. Her “to do” list was enormous. It’s been hindered by her taking over as leader so late with all that entails, some overly ambitious targets, a frustrating handbrake in the form of Winston Peters and a series of time consuming epic tragedies.
That aside and despite the significance of the above factors, there has still been a long list of superb achievements and progress. You’ll see things that have improved the life of Kiwis in huge numbers. Ardern herself is the first to tell you there is still much to do.
https://www.labour.org.nz/progress-list
That Labour lead will evaporate on election day to around the 36% they got at the 2017 election. Fake chardonnay socialists are telling pollsters what they think they want to hear due to the social stigma of openly supporting National or ACT. ACT numbers are more accurate given the courage of conviction it takes to admit to support ACT. I hope that National and ACT have the numbers to form a Government after Oct 17. You have to ask the question: If Labour is so popular, why is Winston First so unpopular?
re…”why is Winston First so unpopular?”….because of Guyon Espiner?( tongue in cheek)
….how do you know Winston First is so unpopular?….because of the polls?…because of what you read on this Blog?
Went to the movies tonight, wasn’t a comedy and I needed a good belly laugh after it. Thank you for that!
36% that’s a drop of 11% in a week lol that’d be a historic drop, even internationally and if the colmar says they are on 47% they are probably on 49%
Na.
Most likely labour holds the center and gets 45-49% of the vote and because of the wasted vote which could very well include the Greens.
It’s all over but the crying. A labour majority or labour minority with a supply and confidence from the greens with them getting a few ministerial roles outside cabinet and a policy concession or two but my money’s still on a labour majority.
I still can’t see the Maori party gaining a seat but it wouldn’t be a bad thing if they did.
Like all the fake Chardonnay socialist swarming Jacinda while Judith hires rent a crowd…. Labour are going to romp home.
fredonas,
Self medicating is resulting in you making absurd and demented statements. Dial back the meds and contact your GP without delay.
Good luck.
Go! Social Credit!
ha ha…well that is an option someone I know is taking
The way I see it, and I’m a Nat voter. Labour 45 National 35 don’t know the rest and don’t care. I’m realistic and not disappointed. But I ask the same question as I always do. Now what. Pretty much fuck all. Martyn knows that, most of you know that to, so are you all happy or what. You don’t like Judith. Fair enough. But you know she will implement something even if you hate it. Jacinda , well she doesn’t like upsetting people and she enjoys her popularity. Her Government has won on COVID but everybody is expecting a future. Good luck because I’m not seeing where it’s coming from going on the results of the last three years.
WTF we have National just below 30! and Labour at 49
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDfAdHBtK_Q
The Who ? – Won’t Get Fooled Again, 1978
I have several friends voting Green for the first time this election as like me they think they deserve to be in parliament. I also have a number of National supporters as friends who cannot vote for Judith. I think intentions given to pollsters may differ from actual voting this time around more than ever.
Voted Labour all my life and am a current member and intend to vote Green this time….. but when I get to the booth I cannot guarantee my Labour loyalty won’t win on the day.
It is a common thread. Happens with a lot of Republicans as well who tell the polls the hate Trump and would never vote for him however come the ballot box they hold their nose and vote red. I suspect national will be 33-35%; Act 6-7% on actual election day (just a guess nothing more)
Note sure about the Greens – conventional wisdom has them limping over the line this time to be ‘Winstoned’ next term. Labour will be judged on their actual performance in the next electoral cycle and even the most arden Labour member will be silently worried about that. The next 3 years will be a test for the cult of personality.
Interestingly Bomber calls Act the 2023 enemy. Not sure re that one – this would require Act to strip off its social liberal hide and be more broadchurch. The right in NZ has become fractionalised post Key and the single biggest advantage for the left is they haven’t generally. I can only see that dynamic getting more entrenched over the next electoral term and the christian right belligerently so. The Luxon turd will be polished over the next couple of years – not sure a bald marketing executive will enamour the masses like Key though.
Good time to be a Labour supporter if they can actually achieve something this term (big if)
Even National Party cheerleader and Collins admirer Duncan Garner has thrown in the white towel.
VERY telling.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/national-is-not-the-party-it-once-was-theyre-rookies/ar-BB19PSix
“One week and one day out from the election, and it’s been one helluva defining week for both the major parties.
Jacinda Ardern and Labour – underwhelmingly safe, non-transformational, the incumbents.
The Nats – all over the shop, rent a crowd, grumpy, losing, lashing out.
And if anything screamed out that National missed John Key, Bill English, Stephen Joyce, Paula Bennett, Chris Finlayson, Nicky Kaye, and hell even Simon Bridges – well, I guess he’s still there – but this was the week that highlighted it.
They are not the experienced lot they once were.
Now they are the rookies, green if you like.
It looks like they have no plan.
It looks like they don’t even know which event or cafe or shop to turn up to. One cafe was expecting Collins this week, so they made giant cheese rolls in advance. She never showed but went elsewhere to eat a cheese roll, and that’s Collins, her own woman.
She’s not going to change and suddenly do something or be warm because some minder told her so.
It’s called pressure and it has been all on show this week.
For National they look like a train with the wobbles, which has come off the track. Not a freight train out of control because that would indicate they had some speed or momentum to start with.
Collins was never a hugely popular caucus figure because of her very nature and personality, and right now you are seeing even some of her caucus leave her to her own devices, isolated and struggling.
She needs to steel herself and reset for the last week to at least come home strong and save some of her MPs losing their jobs.
Whether she cares about that aim anymore is anyone’s guess.”
I tuned out when he claimed they are missing Paula Bennett. Like poor Dave Shearer it’s pretty hard to win when some of your own team are trying to tackle you from behind.
That has been the most disappointing thing from a right-leaning voter – every time it’s one step forward, it’s 2 steps back.
Frank the Tank,
Disappointing for right leaning voters but hilarious entertainment for everyone else. It’s also the epitome of karma for all involved in National.
Simon Bridges must be splitting his sides. No wonder he’s smiling like a Cheshire cat. Likely the only National Party MP who’s happy with where they’re at. I read a piece today suggesting Bridges will get another bite of the cheery after Collins is sent packing in about 10 days but I can’t see it. Christopher Luxon will be the next cab off the ranks for the Latrine Rodents. Unfortunately for National, his type of leader has had it’s time but he is at least a far better option than Collins. In saying that Frank, you or a blind three legged hamster would be a better option than Collins.
Lol. As much as there’s always the golden rule that being in power trumps opposition always I can’t but help to think this is an election to lose.
There is no plan and without a plan the issues we have at present will only get worse. More so thanks to a Zimbabwe-like approach from the RBNZ we will have a K-shaped recession that will drive home the structural issues with the NZ economy. We laugh somewhat at Southern European states and the economic mess they are in however our trajectory mirrors where they are at present. Don’t worry where they are projected to be – our fiscal position in 2023 looks like Greece 2019.
The only light at the end of the tunnel is the Clark/Key South Asian immigration ponzi scheme. This just masks our issues in nominal as opposed to per capita growth. Keen? Grant sure will when the pressure goes on in 18 months time.
This has to be the luckiest year of David Seymour’s life. He must feel like he’s won the political jackpot, with the combo of NZ First fading out and the Nats disintegrating, it’s raining right -wingers all over him.
There is the outside chance that John Tamihere could be the next ‘Decider’.
That would be interesting.
While Winston was the brakes on change, John would be more of a turbo-booster for change.
Bring it 🙂
Seems the National supporters are desperate! From Kiwiblog
“JohnnyOverton
I heard on the grapevine that a group of NZ patriots have put Martyn Bradbury, Ardern’s greatest fan, on their hitlist. Apparently he’s gone to ground & his daily blog racket is now being churned out by loyal devotees. He’s probably informed the cops, but I’m sure they wouldn’t be too worried if he disappeared from the chessboard.”
Overton has a serious personality disorder. He is an online stalker and has made multiple threats here on tdb, all without rhyme or reason. I am not slagging him off, this really happened. He reappears like a recurring bad odour, usually around every full moon. (Johnny, if you read this, please, do yourself a favour and seek professional help. Your life will then begin to get so much better.)
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