TV 3 POLL Winners & Losers – Labour 50% National 29%

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TV3 have finally put out their poll and it’s enough to put the entire ZB Troll Farm on suicide watch because for what must be the 10th poll in a row, Labour can still win a majority Government.

Labour – 50%

National – 29%

ACT – 6.3%

Green – 6.5%

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

NZF – 1.9%

 

WINNERS:

Jacinda – Labour lose 10% and can STILL govern alone??? National must honestly wonder what the hell they have to do to beat Labour short of opening a portal to another dimension or a nerve agent attack on election day. The electorate are so grateful to Jacinda for saving us from the pandemic that Judith could promise everyone $10 000 each and they won’t take it.

ACT – As National continue to melt down, David Seymour increasingly looks like the real Leader of the Opposition. I think back 18months ago when I warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned and warned the middle class Identity Politic Activists that their woke war on free speech could reignite the ACT Party into a real movement again.

Oh look at that. I was right.

Fucking morons.

GREENS – I’m surprised the Greens are managing to cling on. Could they get over 5% on election day? Maybe. Do those alienating middle class arseholes deserve to get over 5%? No way.

Like, I want to see the Greens returned, but then I balance that against the scream we’ll get from the Wellington Twitteratti if they don’t.

It’s tough eh? Like I want to hear those Wellington Twitteratti scream, but then again I want to have a Party that actually believes in climate change.

What a dilemma. Dave Cormacks tears or a habitable planet.

Simon Bridges: Oh how hard is he laughing now?

 

LOSERS

National: Judith plays to her spiteful, angry, redneck base, but to everyone else with a reading age of 12, she scares the bejesus out of them. National have no one left to recruit and will be lucky to get over 25% on election day. Judith can’t help herself, her malice will pop out and remind everyone that electing a toxic warlord as Prime Minister is the worst possible outcome for our democracy.

NZ First: I’ve been claiming it was over for Winston for 6 months. I’ve seen nothing that changes that position.

CONCLUSION:

Labour majority Government.

National will be lucky to have 25% on election day.

NZ First are doomed.

ACT will pick up the free speech issue Jacinda blundered into last week and keep driving towards double figures.

The Greens might crawl back with 5.1%.

The glorious wasted vote will recycle and help Labour most.

Don’t forget,

  • 17th October 7pm – The Greatest NZ Election Results Show on Earth: Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket, Damien Grant, Martyn Bradbury and guests.

 

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52 COMMENTS

  1. I liked listening to Sean Plunkett on Magic talk because like you bomber, he despises wokeness. But lately he has been boring, spouting off about why he won’t vote for recreational cannabis, and is fast becoming another annoying gas bag like that tired old delusional boomer who is on before him in the morning show. I switch them both off now.

  2. Oh! NO! Not another dodgy survey-poll!!
    Looks like labour are in the shit, again!
    With the greens goneburger, because they always overpoll pre election. Labour will have to form a coalition with Act or National or both!
    Oh dear. Clusterfuck!

        • Oh! No! Martyn! Labour on 47%=59 seats and the gweens are dead in the water cause they’re not polling as they have done for 20 years or more!

          Will the Maori’s come to their rescue?

          Or will they start pumping out the bribes to the beneficiaries and the 20.9% that dont vote?

          3 weeks out = a possible 3% further drop!

          Oh dear!

    • +100 Denny…Ha Ha always enjoy your comments…short and pithy and thought provoking

      ( not one of those dumbie PR types who think repetition is an argument which will convince)

  3. Yes it seems National have self destructed although those like myself who feel Labour is a danger to themselves and everyone else may vote National to keep the red tidal wave honest. One thing though, after the election night celebrations, adulation, and ecstasy, the morning after will see some nervousness in even the most loyal of the red frothy foam, of what lies ahead. ( poor turn of phrase)

    • Maybe let’s not worry about nervousness ahead and just vote for Judith’s mob or Act (so they at least equal the Nats.)

      Okay, what particular brand of nervousness are you looking for?

    • What a load of bull kaka new view the polls have been consistent are you upset cause your nasty lot are gonna be on the outer yet another three years. The polls were also right last election about Winstone being the king maker. But the covid has changed everything and we need to adjust or too many people will die unnecessary like in America that has not been made grate again.

    • The nervous vote has already shifted…from National to ACT, so much so Collins is asking her voters in Epsom to vote for her candidate in Epsom. Happy for Labour to govern alone or with greens without the handicap of NZ First.

      • I agree with your bert the handbrake needs to come of. As for Acts leader Mr see more he needs to worry about his own party and the inexperience they bring. There’s a good job of him that will keep him busy in opposition.

        • Yes ACT are very inexperienced Covid. See more running around makingshit up about our covid response having two failures. Typically shooting from the mouth with no evidence, yet enough malicious people start to believe.

  4. National have lost the plot and their very credibility is now falling apart. Examples;

    Auckland Harbour Bridge lanes unexpectedly out of action last week. Not 5 days later up go the National billboards promising a new harbour crossing. No costings, not considered before then, no idea how the hell this promise can be met, just make it up!

    Failing in the polls and one is safely assuming their own internal polls, boom, tax cuts, something they were not going to do for all the right reasons not a month before now abandoned using borrowed money, worse still, reserve money for Covid. This promise was so hastily made up to literally buy votes their financial whizz kid Paul Goldsmith totally fucked up the calculations. Judith, apparently, couldn’t careless. Goldsmith made to look like a fool by his leader.

    The truly concerning thing is Collins wants to win for no other reason than to satisfy her own bloated ego. That and she despises the woman she referred to often as “My Little Pony”. Solid reasons not to vote National. And more than a few Nat MP’s will now be looking for real estate sales vacancies or whatever soul selling employment their skill sets suit!

      • Keepcalmcarryon,

        Context is everything.

        The 60+% Labour was sitting at previously was never going to hold up. It was more a reflection of a moment in time where Covid was the only show in town and the vast majority of kiwis were grateful for the superb Government response to the virus that kept many families fed and safe. The fact Labour could drop 10% back to a more realistic and sustainable number yet still Govern alone is VERY telling. Add to that the concerted and vested interest campaign National and it’s media supporters have waged to undermine public confidence in the Governments Pandemic handling along with eggspurts on the Virus now hatching out on barn doors and toilet floors, it’s not surprising the numbers have dropped for Labour.

        What is of far greater significance is National’s 29.6%. Yes, that is up from the previous diabolical 25% but that number was also never going to stay that low for National with the size of their usual support base.

        The most relevant aspects to that 29.6% are as follows.

        There is no way National can slide their way back into Government with those numbers. Collins herself stated previously that 35% was the line in the sand to get rid of a National Party leader. She herself is now over 5% under that line. She is also now for the first time talking about refusing to stand down as leader if (when) National lose the election. It is clear that even the delusional Collins is now seeing the writing on the wall. National has come out with a bunch of election bribes that will appeal to those out there lacking the insight required to examine the authenticity and integrity of the bribes who are also in the me me me category. It should also be pointed out that among Collins supporters, there is a perception that she farcically “won” the first leaders debate. The reality is, she repulsed in droves everyone else with her despicable and totally disrespectful conduct. This is obviously as good as it gets for Collins and it’s unlikely it will get this good for her again.

        For the record. Who do you honestly think Collins is addressing when she states she will not stand down as National Party leader when she loses the election? She’s on record as previously saying this is her ONE chance of becoming the PM. Collins is fully aware that Christopher Luxon will be the new National Party leader within days of Collins losing the election next month. Luxon is strongly endorsed by John Key and other senior National Party bean counters. Luxon has been gifted a certain free pass into Parliament which of course is why he stood down as the C.E.O of Air NZ. Collins is the biggest bully in NZ Politics. She’s now via her message is even attempting to bully “anyone” who has the audacity to replace her with Luxon after the election night drubbing that she is certain to receive. Is there anyone Collins won’t attempt to bully?

  5. Flagrant language, Martyn, but it raises questions about your main principles. Let alone your tactical understanding.

    The Greens matter centrally despite their personnel, Labour are a hoax of the moment and National isn’t crackers like Oz and America’s Right.

    You are a great skermisher — don’t devalue the term, Scots borderers kept the English from Edinburgh for many centuries though now it’s a half-hour trip on the highway at midnight.

  6. An appropriate comment on The Standard is about our dear friend Michael:

    “I’ve just seen Audrey Young opining “With less than one week to go until advance voting starts, the poll would see three frontbenchers ousted, Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse and Nicola Willis, and 14 other MPs.” … Maybe Woodhouse can roust up some of hordes anonymous ‘homeless men’ to ride their white chargers to his rescue.”

    I certainly hope he goes down the tubes where weasels usually go.

  7. Meh. The election result was known 3 months ago when Bomber’s Karens decamped from National due to a fear of the second coming of the bubonic plague. What would be interesting is the gender and age breakdowns of these polls.

    • Marc,

      If National voters are fond of Ardern, they have a VERY strange way of showing it.

      Referring to her in equine terms. Ridiculing, mocking, and misrepresenting everything she says and does. Butchering her name more than any other PM or President around the planet has been subjected to. Ridiculing her marital status. Attacking her partner with diabolical allegations that resulted in the unprecedented move of the Police getting involved and totally discrediting the allegations. Abusing and mocking Ardern when her grandmother died three days before the 2017 election day. Mocking and laughing at Ardern when her cat was run over and killed outside her Auckland home. Referring to Ardern’s very young daughter as a bastard. Cheering Collins along to attack and mock Ardern etc etc etc etc etc. If that’s what National Party voters do when they are “fond” of Ardern, I’d hate to see what they do to their absolutely despised enemy they have complete contempt for.

      In my opinion, National Party voters very rarely swing between National and Labour. They either decide not to vote if disillusioned with National, or they vote for ACT, NZF or one of the other 1 or 1.5% type Party’s now battling for relevance.

      • You need to check who you hang out with. I regularly attend National functions but have never heard any of the type of comments you mention and when I look through the blogs these comments come from you more than most about Jacinda.

  8. Was always a likelihood of collateral damage with the Judeath “nuclear option” as leader.
    She’s going to cost quite a few Nats their political careers and as Xray so beautifully points out, the Real Estate agencies will have some potential new agents to choose from soon.

    But even worse is the lasting damage to the Nat Party reputation as a whole. In the eyes of their former supporters, who were quite comfortable akshully with Key’s brand of psychopathy, what Judeath presents is the unabridged, unexpurgated version of Nationals Dirty Politics tactics.
    Weak on costed, visionary policy, but heavy on smears, lies, bribes, scaremongering and sowing division.
    And it’s so unpalatable, it’s driven some to the lunatic ACT party, and their recycled failed Rogernomics.
    ACT ffs – whose grand plan for NZ is to privatise everything and replace Matariki with CEO Appreciation Day.

    The Natz have clearly got a huge war chest, given I can’t seem to avoid Judeaths hideous visage everywhere. But each time I see it, I know its further cementing an unfavourable association in the minds of voters that will ultimately keep some very nasty human beings out of parliament. Politicians in the ranks of National who could otherwise have slid into Parliament and reinvigorated the damaging Key legacy.

    • We are seeing more and more of Judith’s dirty politics as the election gets closer . Her biggest issue however is her finance minister. He will cost National the election. If a financial minister cant do basic summation or win his own electorate why on earth would you vote for him or his party.

      • Finance Minister with a Masters Degree M.A in History no wonder he F***ed up his budgets and costings, he should stick to revising history IMHO.

  9. Always read this reviews of polls with a wry smile. In practise they have little value but its fun for pundits to make wildly speculative guesses based on them.

    I do suspect Labour will get back in but I equally hope they are not able to govern alone.

  10. The “glorious wasted vote” is an antidemocratic crock of shit that has to go. It’s part of the reason why we’re down to two (one?) main parties which is not what a proportional representation voting system is meant to deliver.
    Next term Labour:
    * Lower threshold to 4%
    * Drop the coat-tails provision
    * Provide a preference option for party votes to eliminate the “wasted vote”
    * Set minimum of 0.8% party vote requirement for an electorate vote to stand (to avoid the bullshit Ohariu scenario we had with Peter Dunne)
    http://www.tiny.cc/WastedVotes

  11. If Labour end up needing anyone but Green they are screwed.
    I don’t like the prospect, but a National / ACT / TOP (maybe Greens under Shaw) coalition are as likely an outcome as Labour or Labour/Green
    In terms of the referenda – I think that euthanisia and prohibition will win the day – this would not thrill me, it is just that NZ is so conservative this is the likely outcome. It really aggravates me that those who have never used cannabis are actually able to vote – because being pig ignorant his the epitomy of the No vote. I wish thety would say they don’t support it but would not stop access for those who do.

  12. Repost to understand why NZ voters have fallen out of love with National.

    “How John Key wrecked NZ
    Article from time magazine. 26 April 2019
    HOW KIWI’S PAID BILLIONS FOR AUSTRALIA’S HIGHEST HONOUR.
    Between 2008 and 2016 there was one man who did more for the Australian economy than any other individual in the world.
    He was not an Australian citizen, or American, British or Canadian.
    Because of his actions, literally billions upon billions of dollars were created for Australian business, predominantly the banking industry, and this created a massive tax windfall for the Australian government.
    The man in question was a New Zealander and he was awarded Australia’s highest honour – The Honorary Companion in the Order of Australia, in recognition for the significant impact he had on the Australian economy.
    That man was John Key.
    The order of Australia is very similar to honours issued to New Zealanders.
    There are those that collect them on merit – for services to their country, ex-politicians, sportspeople, business people and the more dubious category, donations.
    In Australia, like New Zealand, many business people are awarded Honours for services to the economy.
    These are usually people who build companies and generate income for the government through taxation, thereby lifting the overall standard of living.
    In Australia businessmen like Sir Roderick Carnegie, Douglas Daft, Hugh Morgan, Frank Packer are just a few who have received honours.
    John Key’s contribution was well understood by Australian Treasury but not unsurprisingly went unnoticed by the NZ media.
    To understand how Key contributed to Australia, first you have to understand what he was up to.
    Like Helen Clark, John Key entered politics to fulfil a personal ambition, indeed a boyhood dream to be Prime Minister. The job title was the motivation, not the welfare of the country, and because of this, the policies implemented during his tenure had one purpose, to keep the National Party popular.
    As Key himself stated, the primary consideration if you want to be popular with the voting public is employment. The public doesn’t understand the economy and many aren’t interested, what people care about is having a job. (and if that job is paid for using debt, who cares. )
    Dick Smith ( from Dick Smith electronics fame ) has written a number of articles about Australian Politicians “cooking the books” by using immigration to fool the public into believing that the economy is strong, (search google) and John Key took the very same playbook off the Aussies to run New Zealand’s economy.
    It involves using debt, mortgage debt, and masses of it.
    It works very simply.
    You open the floodgates to immigrants, this creates massive housing and construction demand. It also creates demand and employment across nearly every other sector of the economy as the new migrants set up home in New Zealand.
    There is a lift in house building and all the necessary trades. This flows through to retail and all the brown and white goods to furnish the new homes. You create demand for car sales, supermarket sales, restaurants, takeaways, hairdressers, mechanics etc. Professionals like lawyers and accountants, even doctors and dentists, everyone gets a boost in sales and employment.
    But as Smith has stated, nearly everything is paid for with debt !!
    The first thing new migrants do when they arrive in New Zealand is set up house, and to do this they head to the bank to get a loan.
    Between 2008-2016, 20 to 30 billion a year was spent on construction activity ( mainly houses but also infrastructure like supermarkets and gas stations) In comparison Tourism revenue is about 15 billion a year.
    Mortgage debt over the same period (mostly borrowed off the Aussie banks) went from 133 billion in 2008 to 247.8 billion in 2016, so even though migrants bring capital with them many have little and debt has been the predominant source of funding.
    Let’s put it another way.
    When Key was elected in 2008 New Zealand’s population was 4.2 million and total mortgage debt was around 133 billion. 8 short years later New Zealand’s population had climbed to 4.7 million and mortgage debt had soared to 247.8 billion.
    So in 8 years we added roughly 500,000 people and nearly doubled mortgage debt! That is truly staggering and no wonder Key was showing up on The Australian Treasury departments radar.
    Why such a huge rise?
    Under Key house construction rose but according to figures from the real estate institute, property values in Auckland went up 91% over the same period, as massive demand from immigrants and property speculators outstripped supply.
    Everyone was talking about prices and lack of supply, but when questioned John Key denied time and time again that there was a housing crisis, he could not stop the immigrant borrowing or the economy and his bubble would crash.
    It didn’t stop there.
    With the inflated values on homes, people started dancing along to their banks to borrow on cars, investment properties, renovations, holidays and other luxuries. Again the Aussies were only too happy to lend money, pushed by shareholders and directors keen to keep profits and bonuses flowing.
    By 2016 when Key resigned, ( knowing the public were becoming aware of carhouses, using motels for homeless and overcrowded schools and hospitals) household debt, (excluding investment property) had climbed to a historic 163 billion dollars!
    Bank profits.
    In 2018 as John Key’s legacy of high house prices, massive mortgages and mass immigration continues, the top four Australian banks, ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac reported combined statutory profits after tax of $5128 million.
    That’s $580,000 every hour!
    So every day Australian owned banks are taking massive amounts of interest payments off Kiwi workers and sending that money to their head offices in Australia.
    $5128 million is almost double the amount of profit the Aussie banks were making pre-John Key.
    It gets worse. ( for us, but not for them )
    New Zealand is littered with Australian owned companies.
    Some of the debt the Aussies are lending us is being sent back to Australia as immigrants set up homes with purchases from companies like Harvey Norman, Bunnings, JBHiFi, Freedom furniture, Target and Country Road etc. The Aussie owned supermarkets are also setting record profits as population growth and debt keep everything going.
    The Australian government couldn’t believe John Key and Bill English.
    Here was a Prime Minister who was underpinning the popularity of his party by using immigrants, borrowing billions of dollars, and at the same time burying his own countrymen under record mortgage debt, while using Australian banks in the main to provide funding.
    On top of that, a lot of the debt was being used to purchase goods off Australian companies sending even more New Zealand dollars offshore.
    It gets worse.
    Because debt can’t be taxed (other than the GST component when it’s spent) the New Zealand government has not been getting the necessary increase in taxation to help fund the massive infrastructure upgrades needed for the (more than)1000 people that have been flooding into NZ every week for the last 10 years. And that is why our hospitals are full, our schools are overcrowded, most councils are in record debt, our roads are underfunded and our welfare system and environment are collapsing.
    New Zealand is closing in on 550 billion dollars of total debt. That’s government, housing, personal, everything.
    (Jacinda Ardern and Winston? made pre-election promises of slowing immigration but the latest figures show she is not. While her intentions seem credible she is struggling to balance her globalisation ideology and is lost dealing with the finance and economics side of her job.)
    Never in our history have we come close to owing so much, and nearly half our current debt was accumulated under John Key.
    The long term impact on our economy, welfare system and the lives of young mortgage holders should not be underestimated. Anyone who has a mortgage or has owed a lot of money will understand its impact on one’s standard of living and know how it takes decades to pay off.
    But on the plus side, the Aussies are happy with us.”

  13. Much like Martyn, (and his blog certainly added to my perception), it is the green wokeness brigade and some of what appears to be their perceived priorities that is a turn off to me.

    I am currently undecided on my vote. I have even comptemplated not voting as I have no full alignment with any party, (not that that is not nearly always the case).

    The 2 established parties are definitely out as both have knowingly contributed to the housing and wealth transfer mess of the last two decades and I have no faith that they will make any meaningful change in the near future.

    I am considering TOP, (yeah, yeah) wasted vote comments will flow. But for me a wasted vote is voting for what has shown time and again to be failure to bring any meaningful change to what has been bleedingly obvious issues for decades in NZ now. I also reason to myself it is better to cast a vote for TOP even if it is considered wasted, than not to vote because of this reason alone. As they said, it was thanks to the 2.4% who voted for them last time that they were able to get funding this time round.

  14. Another Labour majority meaning they can govern alone. That will be a serious mistake having a government with full powers is a dangerous proposition because they are accountable to no one. MMP is seriously flawed and needs some major changes around the 5% target to get into parliament without an electorate seat. Labour despite its excellent response to covid is National lite and i remain to be convinced that the promised ” transformation ” that is a close relation to the ” brighter future ” will materialise. Jacinda is marvellous i get that but it is not enough and we need the Greens progressive approach to really get close to real transformative change. I would expect that the numbers will firm up and that Labour will not be as high as they are now so we need to have the Greens returned where finally they will be in a position to not be ignored but do have some influence which will be important should Labour need the votes for confidence and supply.

    • The Greens are a real Robin Hood party. They take from the rich to give to the poor but try to stop the rich getting their riches back so like all socialist parties the fun stops when other people’s money run out.

      • The rich moan because they have to pay higher taxes.
        What they don’t tell you is that they pay hardly any more tax anyway because they put it all in trusts, property and Cayman Island bank accounts.
        But you already knew that didn’t you Trevor?

  15. Labour down 10% will no doubt excite I’m Right, Herman Shovel Ready and Denny Paoa but in all honesty how many people actually believed that Labour had 60% last time?
    I mean 60%??? That is the sort of figure you would get in polling in former Soviet republics. That is too high a figure to be credible – for any party – in New Zealand and certainly Labour wouldn’t have taken it too seriously.
    That was very likely a rogue poll and this latest result is probably a lot more indicative of the true support for the parties.
    So sorry to rain on your parade National but you really don’t have much to celebrate.

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