LATEST UMR INTERNAL POLL: Lab: 53% Nat: 29% ACT: 6.2% NZF: 3.9% GRN: 3.2%

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
101
10051

Everyone is waiting for the latest Polls to try and understand the tectonic shift that the pandemic has caused for this election.

The latest UMT Internal Poll backs up a lot of anecdotal evidence that the tectonic shift is real…

Lab: 53%

Nat: 29%

ACT: 6.2%

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NZF: 3.9%

GRN: 3.2%

…Grant Robertson can start promising transformative policy Labour voters would see as transformative like hiking tax on the top 2% of earners because they now believe a majority Government is a possibility and if that comes to pass, they have to actually do something.

National have a toxicity problem with the older National woman voters who have crossed over to Jacinda in that they are put off by Judith’s Crusherness. That’s why you are seeing a desperate reframing of Judith as softer and nicer than her entire time in politics would suggest. It won’t work. Her nickname is Crusher for Christ’s sake. National will be lucky to have 30% this election.

ACT are having a field day with the collapse of National. David Seymour calling state sanctioned public holidays like Matariki and Christmas Day as evidence we live in a fascist state is hilariously insane not only takes voters away from National, but it also gloriously  pushes the middle further and further away from National into Labour’s welcoming arms.

NZF continue to flounder.

Greens are now part of an open war with Labour. Labour Cabinet Minister’s gleefully threw James under an electric bus over his Jedi Academy and with a tax policy like the one Grant just announced, Labour see they could just strip mine the Greens of another couple of points and become a majority. I think the only chance for Green representation this election will be if Chloe wins Auckland Central.

 

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101 COMMENTS

  1. Not the place for this as nothing to do with this article per se but heard on National Radio yesterday that the price farmers are receiving for wool is now so low the cost to shear is more than they can recover from the sale of the wool and they are having to shear simply due to animal welfare considerations.

    Surely govt could subsidize the cost for school uniforms to be made from NZ wool instead of the current crap plastic from China (polymers) which will benefit NZ farmers / local industry / the kids wearing the uniforms / the environment . . also these uniforms could be standarized to bring the cost down as well (I seem to remember being at primary school in the 80’s and I am sure that all schools just wore the same grey uniforms)?

    • Perhaps our government can provide some funding for companies to develop new products using wool. Kiws are good innovators.

    • “Surely govt could subsidize the cost for school uniforms to be made from NZ wool” Some of us remember the 70’s, the massive farmers corporate welfare that reached it’s zenith/nadir in the sheep retention scheme that overnight resulted in a massive increase in NZ sheep numbers as farmers cashed in taxpayer subsidies for their chosen lifestyle while other businesses such as mfg were simply left to fail if they were uncompetitive. The market should be left to decide, it’s been well proven that in the long run nothing good will come from the Govt picking winners & subsidising them.

    • Totally agree that the govt needs to subsidise wool to get local industries going – Not just for school uniforms but to free us from being wrapped in plastic! Also for house insulation, instead of that toxic pink batty crap.

      • Wool insulation is a no brainer…..the industry desperately needs stronger and more forceful lobbyists. But then farming has in recent years been all about ‘cash-cows’ and many country folk who make up the ‘blue’ church congregation. I want to see the MOW reinstated…….lets hope Jacinda’s majority is big enough.

      • Yep – pity the kids if they have to wear uniforms made from crossbred wool!

        A carpet manufacturer has gone back to wool only, I suspect it will happen more (especially as the raw material price is low). Its not necessarily going to turn around the market though as you dont need a lot of wool and it lasts so long

      • Yes. OK, But that’s probably not going to get better prices for the farmers. NZ wool does have a good reputation for quality.

    • @ James Brown…
      ” Surely govt could subsidise the cost for school uniforms to be made from NZ wool …”
      Nope. None of that fucking around.
      I’ve been there and I’ve fucked around as you’re suggesting, no disrespect intended. Asking, begging, trying to reason, trying to meet in the middle, applying common sense. Nope. None of that fucking around worked then and it won’t work now.
      One of the many wonders of weakness is that those whom are weak get exploited. And if the weak also do a vital thing, or manufacture a vital thing, or, as in AO/NZ’s case, grow a vital thing, their exploiters exploit the logical fallacy of convincing themselves, and their victims that, that’s what happens to the weak. So fair game suckers! Now ? Give me that kilo of lovely wool and I’ll make four jerseys out of it and sell each one for $300.00.
      Farmers are weak. Individually, they will kick your arse but collectively they’re almost unimaginably weak.
      Divide then conquer aye boys? A tactic as old as greed itself and the natzo’s are still all over the farmer like flies on shit.
      If you’re told your wool’s only worth fuck all then you’re getting your information from the wrong sources. You’re getting your information from your exploiters. It’s in their best interests that you farmers continue to believe that it is you who must make do and soldier on while your exploiters make good coin from that madness. And I mean really, really, really, really ‘good coin’.
      Shear your sheep and keep your wool on the farm. And just keep it there and wait….
      See that car speeding down your road to your door? See the ashen face of the driver? Smell that smell? That’s your political representation shitting themselves in sheer terror that their free ride meal ticket game is up.
      Keep your rams from their dutiful endeavours so no lamb meat, skins, blood and bone etc.
      Keep your fruits, vegetables and your sundry other wonderful products on the fucking tree.
      Ring up your mates the warfies, the shearers, the truckies, the seasonal help etc and ask ” So? Howreyagoin? How about a wee strike for 12 months then? We’ll cover your costs. ”
      AO/NZ wool’s the very best fibre within the parameters of what it does, which is most things.
      The best thing wool farmers can do is keep the rams in, keep the wool in the sheds and fucking strike until some desperate, freaked out politician see’s the seriousness of the situation and begs farmers to keep farming.
      At that point, I’d stay on strike for one year or until those responsible for the ‘situation’ that our farmers have found themselves manipulated into for generations are dragged out of their BMW’s and Bentley’s to face their accusers and to explain where the fuck our farmer’s money’s gone?
      Remember! ? What ever you do, do not sell your next seasons wool to anyone.
      My suggestion would be to make ‘them’ come to you and then you and they can meet with your trade negotiators and if a proper and modern agreement isn’t reached?
      Stay on strike. ( I bet many of you farmers reading this ( are there any??? ) are currently going “Haw, haw, haw” ? Then there you go? There’s your weakness and you will remain quite fucked and because you’re our primary industry you’ll drag everyone else down with you.
      I have an idea! You know all those massive wool stores in virtually every city in AO/NZ? The ones stuffed to the roof with your sub one dollar a kg wool? Go and get it back? Fuck it. The deal’s off. Give the scum their stipend back and if you like, demonstrate how to use it as a suppository. Fuck them!
      For Christ’s sake! If it’s not worth your while selling your fabulous product then don’t fucking sell it! ! ! !
      That’s exactly the same as a wage or salary earner being told that there’s going to be no pay this year but we expect you to come in and work 60 hrs a week for nothing. There’s NO difference.
      And yet, there’s a difference when it comes to farming. There’s a real and dangerous expectation placed on farmers to keep going no matter what. I say fuck that. That must stop.
      Strike. Strike. Strike. C’mon. You can do it. It’s easy. All you have to do is show that you CAN strike and you won’t need to.
      ( Ooo…a red dot…?

    • I heard the same interview. Factoring in the price of meat for lambs etc, how does it then even out? I’m tending to take the landed classes cries of pain with a grain of salt these days. Does any sheep farmer farm for wool alone? Shearers are workers and they have to be paid enough to live. Shearing is an animal welfare matter, as is veterinary care, immunisation, tagging and tracing – all costs of business.

    • James I also heard this:
      the price farmers are receiving for wool is now so low the cost to shear is more than they can recover from the sale of the wool and they are having to shear simply due to animal welfare considerations.

      I am not sure that I believe it however. A bit like the growerrs who can’t get pickers so are allowed to bring in labour from the Islands and 3rd world countries. If the bloody growers paid a living wage we’d soon see pickers arriving on their doorstep, I have no sympathy for them and they shouldn’t be able to bring in labour that undercuts what Kiwis want and should get.

  3. Well a Greenless Govt. is not something to look forward to imo.

    The Incels & Gun lovers Party-ACT-with extra MPs will represent the fringe conspiracists of the right pretty much unchallenged.

    Plus, leftists better prepare for a major organising and direct action campaign to roll back neo liberalism in all its forms, because a stand alone Labour Govt. will not likely repudiate their Caucus’ Rogernomics DNA without massive working class and community pressure.

  4. That poll/survey is a bit like MMT? I’ll tell you how much I’m gunna borrow from myself and when I’ll pay myself back?

    Again, Act on “6.2%!” Thats a “Yeah Right!”

    • +100 Denny…YUP ….now why is ACT suddenly on 6.2 percent ? ( maybe New Zealanders are pissed off and ACT is netting a protest vote) This deserves more analysis

      • It’s the same result as they got when nats were weak when Clark was pm. They are draining votes off Nat, some from nzf , some from nc and a few from TOP they’ve also got the anti 1080 people. The free speech shtick and gun control has worked well for them. I personally would love it if they got 4.9% and Goldsmith won Epsom but pipe dream

        • Its the Labour party ‘narrative’ theyre pushing to convince their supporters that “they’ve got this one in the bag”.

          Nekminit!

  5. Yes and National has also another toxic problem and that is pissing the over men away from National with their “FETISH FOR TRUCKS” on more roads roads and more roads, that is killing most older folks who try to drive on our substandard roads which are just goat tracks and trucks are taking all the road now so this is a toxic problem.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1912/S00019/ceac-how-to-stop-destructive-loss-of-ocean-oxygen.htm

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2004/S00119/ceac-rail-not-road-for-lowered-air-pollution.htm

    Consider the toxic results by having more trucks or our roads.;
    Now more trucks are ruining our climate too, with spewing out many kg’s of toxic Tyre dust every time a 32 wheeler drives a load to a port and that “micro-plastic particles” comes off every Tyre and is washed off our roads into our water supplies and estuaries and into the sea and winds up washing onto the polar ice caps and that black tyre dust attracts the suns heat and speeds up the melting of the polar ice caps and ends up flooding our roads as the sea level rises.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1912/S00019/ceac-how-to-stop-destructive-loss-of-ocean-oxygen.htm

    End result; – trucks are killing there own futures silly people they are, railing against rail because rail has no tyre pollution as rail freight only travels on steel tracks with steel wheels.

    So as public enemy number one WAKE UP!! – ‘Nick Legett’ of the (RTF) ‘road transport forum’ – you silly man!!!

    Public enemy number one is the trucking industry get back onto rail!!!!.

    • Yet another “gift” from the Nationalists…. !981 was the year we lost our roads to the fleets of badly driven trucks.. The bill for maintenance on the now rapidly crumbling road network, also skyrocketed as a result of vehicles destroying roads that weren’t built for the weight and volume suddenly imposed upon them.. At the same time the nats had started downsizing one of NZ’s, if not the most important source of highly trained tradesmen, in the railway workshops.. In what universe would it be sensible, or remotely rational to allow the same party to continue the process of allowing our country to be trashed at a compounding rate? The negative outcomes that flowed from that little bit of “Payola” is still impacting us today…

      • Thats correct. We motorists are subsidising the heavy trucks. The heavy axel weights of the trucks destroy the roads not the cars. The heavy axel weights destroy the road foundations. Therefore it costs substantially more to construct a highway in order to cater for heavy trucks.

        Cars are more than paying for their use of the right of way provided by roads and their maintenance, administration, etc.

  6. “Grant Robertson can start promising transformative policy” hahahaha good one like their tax policy released this morning you mean? Wake the hell up Bomber. You’re a sycophant to nonsense.

    • ‘Grant Robertson’ and ‘transformative’ are two items that should never be paired in a sentence. Labour has been an abject disappointment this term. I have no hope for the next. Crises aside, they’ve delivered nothing.

  7. That’s is good about the tax policy for those earning over 180k but people on 70k paying 30 cents in the dollar is a bit high as it doesn’t factor in, the increase in the costs of living. Also those with lots of money can avoid paying taxes so how is the government going to get around this problem ?

    • And those on the basic minimum wage can’t afford to pay tax at all. By all means increase the top tax rate but make the first 25K tax free. And have the guts to impose a CGT. Deeply disappointing.

      • I’m in a basic income. Got evicted with 99 days notice because basic maintenance needed doing. Am staring homelessness in the face because of the our-of-control rental market. Can afford the $3-4K bond and rent in advance required to move but may well not be able to afford the subsequent skimming of 70% of my income to maintain rent plus living costs. Considering buying a camper an and becoming homeless. This is the reality of life in New Zealand for New Zealand citizens and residents. If you’re a seasonal worker you can live in shit dormitory conditions, earn your paltry wage and go back home, with some avenue of sympathy in terms of pay-walked stories in the media about your substandard dorms. If you’re stuck here, it’s your own fault and you’ve got no-one to blame but yourself. Why the fuck should Labour have my monthly donation (GST-free)? They can go fuck themselves to hell and die, come to think of it.

  8. It was interesting the tax announcement was not made by Jacinda but the suggestion of an extra holiday was . Is there a good cop bad cop routine going on here.

    • Who cares? Navel gazers and sad people will analyse, criticise and optimise the opportunity to make something of it. And note the colour of her clothes while making certain announcements.

    • An extra holiday, woop-de-doo. That’s going to solve child poverty, adult poverty, generational poverty, inequality, homelessness and all the other pressing problems those of us who have no private health insurance (looking at you ’Chippie’ and Shane reti on rnz health debate tonight) face in life but pay for with our lives. Rnz commentators’ feedback was how they should join in a grand coalition they sound so similar. Sure. Great. Add ACT in the mix and it will be perfect. An ACT/National/Labour coalition. Euthanise the rest of us and put us out of our misery

  9. @Trevor – of course there is. They want to keep the Princess away from any bad news.

    As for the policy – he reckons it’ll raise $500m. Really? If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you.

    Lastly – high earners already contribute over 25% of all income tax yet make up only 3% of earners. Remind me how that’s not already “their fair share”

  10. All the woke keyboard worriers are out in force on the twitter of all places posting their arguments, memes, statistics and graphs as if they have a clue why poll move up or down. Get wrecked fuckers.

  11. That is not a solid tax policy, from a party polling 50% and more. It’s an insult to their voters who need tax reflief.
    I hear it’s supposed to capture 500million in tax take??? Well that’s to be seen, wait until people get creative.
    Sorry Labour, but here’s the tax policy you should have announced (free of charge from right winger with a business head):
    1. No tax for student workers and very low incomes.
    2. Shift the 33% bracket tax from 70K to 90K or even 100K.
    3. 39% kicks in at 150K already.
    4. 50% kicks in at 250 or 300K.
    5. But, here’s the big one: student loaners owe NZ (you and me folks!) 16 billion. So, I say pay 25% of your loan off within one year, or even two 2 years, and we’ll wipe it. Gone! Now you’re free of debt and can spend more in the economy….more GST coming in.
    Imagine the incentives to rid oneself of a lifelong debt! Plus, at 20% recovery…NZ would earn 4 billion within one or two years. Not a miserable 500 million.

    Even you miserable whining left wingers can’t complain about my tax policy.
    But you will.

    • You are sounding nervous Herman.

      I thought Labour was supposed to be polling under 50% this close to the election?

    • NO, we have 80% of the population trying to all pull in one direction while 10% say to them nope, one more public holiday isn’t good enough for you, health and education isn’t good enough for you. It’s just the politics of spite that we will squish, just like the green. And go, Chloe.

    • Sorry Heman, you meed to become a ‘hermit’ as labour will sack your sorry National Party come election time.

    • No your tax policy sounds great! But did you use Steven Joyce to work it out, there’s a hole in there somewhere? Nasty rightwingers my precious!

  12. Labour Party a Winner on Tax.

    Good realistic Tax Policy decisions by Labour… to increase tax on corporates and those earning over $180,000.

    The Green Party Capital Gains Tax will discourage New Zealanders innovation and entrepreneurship and small businesses

    The Green Party Land Tax will put farmers off their farms

    ( and will make NZ ripe for globalisation and takeover by foreigners)

      • by whom…?…overseas owners of NZ property?….dont blame New Zealanders for massive immigration and overseas ownership of scarce NZ houses and pushing prices up!

  13. If the poll is accurate then it’s the best case scenario. I’ll take that all day every day until the day after the election.

  14. If this is not the right time to throw a lifeline to Greens then Labour will sit and wonder where they went wrong and how come they don’t have any friends left in the parliament after 2023.

      • They could throw a lifeline to both of them and be in the box seat in negotiations and thereafter. When they want to swing right (immigration, China, defence) they blame NZF and they can do more on climate change and blame the Greens.

      • Agreed Red Buzzard.

        NZF is a better partner than the errant greens.

        Why did the greens not fight for rail? They seem to be happy with more roads roads and roads silly people, at least NZF want rail.

  15. That poll is a clear message to vote TOP.
    A party with fresh evidence-based transformative ideas and if they don’t make the threshold then 53% of their votes go to Labour (who will be at extreme risk of being lazy, arrogant and insufferable with that kind of majority – 71 seats in the House).

  16. Jacinda is receiving a dividend from the lock-down propaganda.

    The question is: Will that last another month, as all this unravels?

    If she loses just 4%, what will be the result?

    • Andrew I love right wingers like you because I hope your lack of knowledge is equalled inside the National Party Strategy HQ.

      Of course you understand that under MMP, if Labour lost 4% and were 49% on October 17th, the wasted vote and special vote count would round Labour up above 50%.

      In fact Labour can poll as low as 47% on election night and still get rounded up to a majority.

      But as long as National Party strategists are as ignorant of the battlefield as you are, we on the Left are going to be able to throw those MMP curve balls that so enrage the right through their own ignorance of our political system.

      Happy Days.

      • Nat voters in Epsom know how it works – as they did in Ohariu back in the day.
        When Left voters in Epsom understand what to do with their electorate vote in Epsom then we’ll be starting to master MMP.

        • You might need to spell it out for them, local MP vote blue, party vote red. That should get rid of the coat tailing ACT gravy train

  17. Nah not nervous. Just resigned to the facts.
    But you gotta admit, Labour again missed the mark. Hardly transformational. When it could have been so easily.

  18. I find it hard to believe that the most left party in New Zealand after this election could be Labour. Not that I’m saying it couldn’t happen

  19. No no no! The last thing needed here is yet another farmer subsidy. Farmers are making a killing, no pun intended, on lamb and mutton. Have you bought any recently?They can well afford a hit on animal welfare.

  20. A great day for NZ politics! The so-called “Greens” look gonski, and Winnie’s game is finally up. But best of all, Labour are at last acting like a proper Labour Party by promising to tax the wealthy a little more. NZ’s current top tax rate is way lower than the equivalent figures in other western OECD countries – more like an eastern Asian country. Time to change that.

  23. So NZers seem to be as easily influenced by shallow charm and sweet talk as other voters in other countries, where it matters more what the appearance is, than what substance there may or may not be in politics, solutions and real actions.

    The ridiculous tax policy that Grant Robertson announced for Labour shows that the party does not want change, it is only keen on re arranging the deck chairs and wanting to pretend it is doing something.

    What happened to the suggestions or recommendations made by the Tax Working Group, what happened with the same made by the Welfare Working Group, what happened with all the other stuff that Labour had so proudly told people during and after the last election?

    Covid 19 is being used as an excuse to do nothing much else, but keep the virus at bay, while clusters are now followed by numerous sub clusters, making this to become a kind of cluster f***.

    This poll destroys the remnants of faith I have in the general population of NZ Aotearoa.

    What a waste of space most people are.

  24. Let them have a majority then there is no excuses – no blaming the 9 years of neglect, the Winston handbrake etc. With ministers like Davis, Twyford, Mahuta and Sepuloni it will be a gong show regardless.

    It will be entertaining when Grant’s credit card hits its limit and the tax take is half. What then?

  27. And all of the 120 MP’s go “Phew!” We missed that bullet! We wont have to sell our investment properties after all! We go buy more!
    “Nice one Grant!” you can here them say! – MP’s salary; $173k.

  28. Wikipedia say that the UMR is “leaked” to the press… “their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising.” We have no idea of their sample numbers, margin of error or methods. “Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends”.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

    But a real poll taken at the same time, ignored by the media has the Greens at 11%. Roy Morgan.

  29. A big part of why the electorate likes this government is because the Greens pushed for things that made sense at this critical time, even though they were a departure from business as usual. More is needed, and without the greens it hard to see Labor making some of the necessary hard choices, for example, onshore drilling versus survivability. Show the greens some love in October, or K___ y___ a___ goodbye. Younger Kiwis want to know the government is looking out for them and the future, this means aggressively progressive social, economic, and environmental policy.
    An example of the greens being effective is the push to stop any new offshore oils/gas exploration. After the confidence and supply agreement was baked in, this policy position was dead in the water, but Cloe Swarbrick picked it up and ran with it – hard, now it’s the law. Many other examples exist.

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