TVNZ Poll – Winners & Losers

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Rogue Poll you say Judith? You must be joking.

TDB has been foreshadowing Labour winning a majority, the Greens sinking beneath 5%, NZF sinking beneath 5%, National imploding and ACT getting over 5% and lo and fucking behold, our foresight has come to be reflected in the polls.

I remember last year when the woke activists were screaming to deplatform and censor free speech and I said at the time, ‘you fucking clowns are going to build David Seymour into a God. You fucking clowns’.

ACT on 5% – look at that. The I told you so express is on time.

I remember suggesting the Green Party’s middle class woke pure temple mantra would risk their viability, and wow, look at that. They are just clinging on by their fingernails.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

I remember suggesting that Jacinda’s incredible leadership over the pandemic would cause a seismic shift in political tectonics to the point Labour could win a majority.

FUCK ME – check out that 53% result.

The latest TVNZ Political Poll 50 days out from the election tells a tale of winners and losers.

Labour – 53% – Labour could drop to 47% and because of the wasted vote get rounded up to a majority. They have gone up in this poll and are 60% on TV3s Poll. The electorate respect Jacinda in a way they don’t respect National, this represents a tectonic shift in NZ politics. Matthew Hooton doesn’t dream in colour any longer.

National 32% – Judith stated Bridges had to go if National ever got under 35%. She’s 32% in this poll and 25% on TV3s Poll. People have recoiled in terror from Judith. She has all the charm of a car accident with the empathy of a hungry wolverine in a pre-natal ward. The way she just blew Iain Lees-Galloway’s brains all over the screen of The AM Show without even a flicker of remorse just to change the news focus off her rotten MPs was beautiful to watch close up. Like a venomous snake strike on an infant in slow motion. Couple this with bullshit policy that doesn’t even seem connected to the real time pandemic existence we now live in, and they’re lucky to have 32%. The more voters see of Judith, the more she makes them cry in fear.

Greens – 5% – FFS. These clowns couldn’t get laid wearing banana costumes in a monkey brothel.

ACT – 5% – So if David hadn’t sold his soul to the NZ NRA, he would have gained this momentum all on his own. Now he’s held hostage by guns nuts. At some stage someone is going to have to launch an intervention to rescue him.

NZF – 2% – Na na! Na na na na! Hey Hey Hey! Goodbye!

New Conservatives – 1% – Glorious right wing christian wasted vote! Take more votes off Winston and Judith I say! MORE!

Māori – 1% – With .25% more Party vote plus an electorate – the Māori Party are back.

WINNERS:

Jacinda: After terrorism, volcanism and a pandemic, she makes us all stand taller. She’s earned a second term, come on, just give it to her already. Only the most bitter partisan won’t begrudgingly acknowledge that she has stepped up at moments of crisis like few previous Prime Ministers have. With the pandemic raging overseas who do you trust to stop it, Jacinda or Judith? If your answer is Judith, then you are the Covid virus.

Chloe Swarbrick – On these numbers, Helen White is in off the list and to everyone’s shock and surprise, the 52 page Green Party manifesto didn’t manage to make any impact whatsofuckingever on the electorate. In fact, the Greens dropped a full point. I mean what a smack in the face is that? It’s almost as if the dense 52 page manifesto didn’t manage to have any memorable catchy phrases, but memorable catchy phrases is playing to the cishet  patriarchy so we couldn’t possibly do anything that cheapens any of our 52 page manifesto because it’s ALL SOOOOOOOO important!

Yeah.

So Chloe winning Auckland Central is the only way these jaw droopingly incompetent clowns get back into Parliament now. I’m genuinely aghast at what they think their campaign is this election, it’s so bad.

 

LOSERS:

NZ First: It’s all over rover unless Shane Jones wins Northland. Against a boiled ham like Matt King, that shouldn’t be hard but this is Northland and Shane’s articulateness makes him too cosmopolitan for voters frightened by eclipses and vaccines so Northland is a steep mountain. There are no immigrants for Winston to rave about this election and everyone is just tired of his tricks. Without his Queen maker leverage Winston is as powerless as Jareth at the end of Labyrinth.

Tova O’Brien, Mike Hosking, Barry Soper, Heather du Plessis-Allan, Kate Hawksby, Duncan Garner, Mark Richardson: The rip in their souls, the creases of grief around their eyes, the shiver in their voices – this is what I enjoy most after ANOTHER poll showing Labour can govern alone. Their tears are delicious, let me drink deeply to quench my left wing thirst.

CONCLUSION:

Please little baby Jesus, allow National to slip below 30 so Paul Goldsmith is forced to slay David Seymour to win Epsom and get back into Parliament. Oh the lols that would bring.

Majority Labour Government.

Lots of wasted vote from conspiracy theorists and right wing Christians.

National will be lucky to get 30%.

NZ First is dust in the wind through a desert on a horse with no name.

The Greens are hopelessly lost and Chloe is their saviour.

ACT’s success will make us all wish the woke hadn’t miscalculated so horribly over the free speech debate last year.

 

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38 COMMENTS

  1. National haven’t released their party list yet have they?
    I wonder if this series of “rogue polls” will create some reshuffling and back stabbing so that people on the fringe of defeat can get to safety?
    When under pressure the first National instinct will be self preservation.
    F… the party!
    I want to get elected!

  2. “ACT’s success will make us all wish the woke hadn’t miscalculated so horribly over the free speech debate last year.”

    Yes Martyn; – the press has been making love to this cretin David Seymour so much lately it makes me puck. He is a nasty man behind with a dark space there. We in our family call him “the doctor of death” for those reasons of hidden agendas.

    • I’d love to see how much TV time, for opinions, NZ’s corrupt corporate media have give ‘The Hologram’. They (the corrupt media) have built him up and NOT surprisingly ACT/his-vote has gone up.
      SOS, NZ’s 4th estate and democracy

      • I’d also be interested to see how many right wing voters would return to National if Collins had the balls to lance the boil that is Seymour and ACT?

      • The nerdy little creep is simply benefiting from disenfranchised right wing Natz… I don’t think media attention is doing him any good cos to the general public he’s as appealing as a STD that’s and only curable at the election

  3. National and their trolls will find some good news in the poll.

    1) It’s apparently not as bad as the Newshub “rogue”poll.
    2) Collins is remarkably not seen as vomit inducing as Muller and Bwidges.
    3) For almost 3 years they’ve had no relevant friends to help them into Government.Now they may do as Act becomes almost relevant.
    4) They feel they have time to sell Collins and use Gerry Brownstains “investigation unit” against Labour.

    The reality.

    1) It is as bad as the Newshub poll. The truth is somewhere between both sets of numbers.
    2) The only people supporting Collins as trustworthy etc are hardcore National supporters. They would tick trustworthy for “Charles Manson” if he’d put a “National” sticker over the crucifix on his forehead.
    3) Act will not get to 5% on election day. 3% at best.
    4) Time is not National’s friend here. Chucky can’t keep the smiling affable infomercial going for that long without the mask dropping off and falling in even more big holes. Her toxic desperation and that of Brownstains will turn people cold as will Dirty Politics which is their ONLY toolbox. The confronting reality for Collins of knowing she will have to gift the keys over to Luxon the day after the election after a long awaited one time only short unsuccessful stint as leader will see her implode like a volcano full of toxic festering turds. You know that’s coming.

    The election between the two biggest parties will be decided on the following choices.

    1) Mothers milk.

    or

    2) Snake oil and venom.

    One is trusted and embraced. The other isn’t.

  4. I just wonder how many rightwing voters would return to National if Collins was brave enough to lance the boil that is ACT?

    • It won’t happen unfortunately, at least not before this election. National need ACT as much as ACT need National.

  5. Yessss!! FJK, FJK, Nashnull out! Nashnull out!–oh, they are out!…and lets keep it that way.

    It is certainly nice to see Labour not on “last chance power drive” this election, Roger’s legacy notwithstanding. And there is NO escaping the fact that Roger’n’Ruth’s toxic waste will need to be cleaned up with urgency one way or another post election.

    So–no pleasure to be the one to turn the stereo down a notch as the party peaks–but…the Greens 52 pager is actually mostly very good–Union rights restored, virtual UBI, WINZ/MSD slap down, etc etc. Party vote Green has to be considered by all left voters as a hubris bloated “one Labour to rule them all” will likely see neo liberalism merrily sail on.

    • I agree TM. Their dense 52 page manifesto has so many awesome ideas that TDB has mooted in the past and yet rather than providing a bite sized platform to sell those ideas, the Greens seem to have simply assumed the country will read the whole 52 pages.

      I’m sure that tactic will see them sail over the 5% eh. Any day now the entire country will each take a couple of hours out of their day to sit down and read the entire 52 pages.

      Any. Day. Now.

      Oh look, doesn’t seem to be working.

  6. Bag nashnul all u like, but what has this government really achieved for the poor and the middle, really? The prospect of fundamental change is rarely achieved. Just ask the obama supporters how that worked out..

  7. One of your best articles Bomber! I loved every word (it could also be of course that the outcome represents the fulfillment of my own fantasy dreams in 2014 after an election that made the left look like one of the ten lost tribes of Israel.

    Dreams and fantasies are free: but the hard work to make them reality has never been more satisfying…

  8. Does the mercy rule apply?

    So far Labour hasn’t released any real policy particularly how they are going to pay for all this. At some stage their taxation policy will have to be released, along with their law and order, justice and race relations. The strategy of holding off until the last minute is a good one however these will need to come out fairly soon and usually these aren’t in line with where the middle see these issues.

    That said ATM hard to see the centre right getting any more than 40% combined come election day.

    • AND… National also haven’t released any policy on how they will pay for the covid-19 supp, other than Golfsmith scrimping on funding health. All of which begs the question, why did National scrimp on health and education during their Rockstar years?

  9. Yes I confess as a past Green Party member from Rod Donald and Jeanette Fitzsimons days, I have yet to sit down and review the Green Party manifesto 52 page plan of the future and hope they are supporting regional rail freight and passenger services not only just ‘big city urban rail.’

    • I totally take Martyn’s point about the Greens woefully loose management of just about everything.

      Mr Shaw finally stuck it to Winston, and that is the spirit they need, to increase support over the next month or so.

      Regional rail is indeed mentioned in the Green Policy paper-in stark relief with National and Labour’s Roads, Roads, Roads riff.

      • re : “Mr Shaw finally stuck it to Winston, and that is the spirit they need, to increase support over the next month or so.”

        …yup the Greens work very well with National (…ín fact is a coalition between the Greens and National out of the question?)

        National Party ‘prepared to work with the Greens’ to repeal ‘waka-jumping’ legislation

        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/national-party-prepared-to-work-with-the-greens-to-repeal-waka-jumping-legislation.html

        ‘Winston Peters accuses Greens of ‘misusing Labour’ in scrap over ‘waka-jumping’ repeal’

        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/winston-peters-accuses-greens-of-misusing-labour-in-scrap-over-waka-jumping-repeal.html

        …”Carter has thanked the Greens for supporting his legislation.

        “I’d like to thank the Greens for voting for this legislation. They have reasserted their values as a party that stands up for free speech, and we look forward to working with them further to make sure this Member’s Bill passes,” he said.

        “No credible democracy should ever have given the power to party leaders to dismiss elected Members of Parliament because they don’t agree with the leader.

        “It is an affront to democracy. The public expects elected members to advocate strongly without fear of being punished by their Leaders for expressing different views.”

        ( cough cough; do the Wokie Greens stand for free speech?…)

        …and the Greens have worked closely with National before;

        ‘What the Greens-National deal reveals’

        https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/352880/what-the-greens-national-deal-reveals

        “The Greens and National have done a deal to hand over the Greens’ allocation of questions for Question Time. This is as procedural and inside-the-beltway as it comes, but it opens up the question of the Greens and National working more closely together on substantial issues…

        • The news for you is not great Buzzard–with MMP all sorts of shit is possible–it is a bourgeois Parliament after all in class terms. And lets not forget that there has been a neo liberal consensus for 36 years now between all main parties.

          The level of working class struggle has been generally low since 1991, and that is reflected in what is achieved in terms of legislation that benefits the masses and underclass.

          I have no illusions about the Green Party, but Green bashing at this stage is counterproductive given they have the most progressive policy for workers!–which obviously needs to be in short attention span, bite sized form as Martyn says.

          I am not going to die in a ditch supporting the Greens but am not going to put the slipper into them either–unlike my feelings on ACT, National and NZ First.

          • …yeah well I wouldnt trust the Greens further than I could kick my slipper …they are a pack of middle class brats with fascist tendencies

            …and didnt James Shaw support John Key in wanting to change the NZ flag to RED PEAK ? (talk about a wanker joint project!)

  10. The Greens should lobby the overseas votes they always do well in this area and they aren’t supporting the quarantine charge are they ? another good reason for more votes.
    I personally would like to see the new Maori party, the Greenies and Labour in power. We had 9 years of the the other lot and it was bad for our country unless you were super rich. As for Act its a waste of a vote they will be in the backbench with their gun bullshit lobby lot.

    • wishful thinking there?…the last Maori Party ENABLED John Key Nactional to stay in Parliament for nine years….remember?!

      …and ACT seems to be doing quite well thanks!…maybe even better than the Greens or the Maori Party !

      …thanks to the mishaps/treachery of Wokie Greens trying to stifle free speech in New Zealand

      …and blaming New Zealander legally licensed gun owners for white racism and the act of a solo AUSTRALIAN’s mass murder at a mosque which had been established in Christchurch for a number of years quite peaceably

  11. Winner Creative Writing Category:
    JACINDAFAN – for ‘Chucky’ and ‘Brownstains’ and ‘Bwidges’.
    Well done! Your creative skills know no bounds. We admire you. Not bad for a three year old.

    • Herman Shovel Ready,

      Having another bad and sad day?

      I appreciate your award. It means ever so much to me.

      Funny thing is “I can’t recall” reading your input regarding the incessant derogatory personal abuse directed at Ardern. Three years of slagging her off and referring to her in equine terms. Three years of insulting her intellect and referring to her as an “Airhead”. Not a peep out of you when Ardern’s young daughter was routinely described as a “bastard” by your fellow blue trolls. I appreciate with your ilk it’s justified to fire personal abuse at a female Labour PM and her young daughter but anyone who has the audacity to return serve is a three-year-old. You must be exhausted trying to crawl up to the high moral ground.

  12. I’m either voting for ACT (who are social libertarians) or Labour (who are neo-liberal socialists). A coalition between the two would actually make a reasonably progressive government. Shame that won’t ever happen.

    • Afraid you’re quite misguided if you think Act are libertarian.

      In reality Act masquerade as libertarian but behind the curtain they’re no more than a vehicle of cronyism bought and paid for by and only support small government for its owners profit.

      I guess to his credit, Rimmer did achieve one decent libertarian aligned policy in the end of life choice referendum (which I support). Beyond that he’s just another trougher at the Nats beck and call.

  13. Actually, tactical voting is going to make a difference in this context. Possibly Chloe Swarbrick in Auckland Central, but also David Seymour in Epsom. Yes, Chloe could save her party if they dip below five percent and she can provide them with a pinion seat. However, Seymour is vulnerable to tactical voting in his seat. If Goldsmith is helped over and ACT falls slightly, goodbye ACT. The best scenario would be a Labour majority, the Greens out of danger, ACT and NZF out of Parliament, and National decimated.

    • Martyn is highly energised but lowly informed about the topic. He isn’t letting his lack of understanding stop him though, dammit

  14. That Martyn didn’t identify the main reason for the Green’s decline as Jacinda shows they are a blind spot for him. I guess the opposite of woke is sleepy or dreaming. Could be, if he missed seeing the poverty action and clean energy announcements. https://www.greens.org.nz/media

    If anything, our current small decline reflects people seeing Crusher as a threat, and as Martyn said himself, that won’t last.

  15. For those that cant ‘read’ surveys/polls.

    Another dodgy survey. Why? Because it says Act are on 5%!!
    Colmar Brunton poll (1/3): LAB 53% (+3), NAT 32% (-6), GRN 5% (-1), ACT 5% (+2), NZF 2%, NCO 1%, MAO 1%.

    So the takeaway is that the gap is closing, from a 39 point lead (a week ago) to now a 21 point lead. If we believe this survey is accurate. That means labour are toast 8 weeks out from the election.

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