Waatea News Column: Latest Roy Morgan Poll another glimmer of hope for Maori Party


This weeks Roy Morgan Poll is another unprecedented blow to the National Party and is proof positive Labour has made impressive inroads to the previously solid National voting bloc.

Roy Morgan have Labour at an astounding 56.5% and National plummeting to 26.5%.

The Poll covered two days of Muller’s coup and follows two previous polls with TV3 & TVNZ that showed the same trends.

Jacinda’s leadership throughout the lockdown has been watched by National voters who may have only ever seen her previously in news soundbites or short interviews. At a time when they felt most vulnerable, they watched Jacinda 1pm week daily give them a sense of real leadership and with that gratitude comes political loyalty.

Hence the enormous boost to Labour.

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But the Poll also provides a real glimmer of hope for the Māori Party. In the Roy Morgan Poll they gained 1.5%, if the Māori Party win an electorate, which is a possibility in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makaurau, they would pull in another MP off the Party list.

The Māori Party continue to fly under the mainstream media radar and could be the surprise winner on election night.

As for the National Party, there will be some real questions over what Todd Muller is actually going to do to win those voters back, especially with the hard right vote moving to ACT.

National could end up winning a historically low vote in September.


First published on Waatea News.


  1. Yes labour have been seen to have ‘eaten their own’ finally in election year it seems.

    100 days is a long time till the election for any political party Martyn.

  2. The UMR poll just released today has Labour still well ahead of National on 54 per cent, while NZ First was on 5 per cent and the Green Party on 4 per cent.

    UMR Poll. Released today 5/6/20

    NZ Herald
    No Mullermania yet for Todd Muller in first poll since leadership change
    5 Jun, 2020 12:46pm
    3 minutes to read

    Todd Muller says PM Ardern should make a Captain’s Call and move the country to level 1. Video / Parliament TV

    By: Claire Trevett
    Senior Politics Writer, NZ Herald
    claire.trevett@nzherald.co.nz @CTrevettNZH
    A poll taken by UMR the week after Todd Muller took over as National Party leader has shown no immediate change to the National Party’s fortunes while Muller has debuted at 13 per cent as preferred Prime Minister.
    The poll results had National on 30 per cent – just one per cent higher than the 29 per cent it scored on the last such UMR poll under Simon Bridges’ leadership at the end of April.
    The poll has Labour still well ahead of National on 54 per cent, while NZ First was on 5 per cent and the Green Party on 4 per cent.
    UMR is the polling company used by the Labour Party, but this poll was one of a regular series taken for its corporate clients rather than Labour.
    Muller has come at higher levels as preferred Prime Minister than Bridges’ had been on when he was rolled – Muller was at 13 per cent.
    That was the same as Bridges’ highest ever score in the UMR poll last November – but Bridges had dropped to 7 per cent by April as voters reacted to his response to the Covid-19 crisis.
    Ardern was miles ahead and has 65 per cent support as Prime Minister.
    However, Muller is still relatively unknown and many voters are likely still making up their minds about him.
    The poll of 1211 voters was taken from May 26 to June 1 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 per cent.
    It started on Muller’s Tuesday of Troubles: the day on which Muller and deputy Nikki Kaye ran into trouble over the dearth of Māori in high-ranked positions in the reshuffle, and confusion over whether MP Paul Goldsmith was Māori.

    The National Party leadership will have been hoping for a quick bounce in the polls for Muller, although his initial good start was de-railed by those blunders in his first week.
    They will be disappointed at the result and hoping that it simply reflected the instability that surrounded the fractious leadership change.
    Muller has spent the last week pushing for the Government to move to level 1 more quickly, and pointing to the differences of opinion on Covid-19 issues between the PM and NZ First leader Winston Peters. He has claimed it is a sign of a “dysfunctional government”.
    The poll results are similar to other polls taken before the leadership change: the Newshub Reid Research poll had National on 30.6 per cent and the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll a week later put National at 29 per cent.
    The Colmar Brunton poll was done while the leadership contest was rolling out – a factor which will have impacted further on the result.
    It is understood National’s caucus is yet to be shown any of the National Party’s own internal polling by Curia since the leadership change. Two sets of polling will have been delivered since Muller took over on May 22.
    National was polling in the mid 40s in February, before Covid-19 hit the country.
    Former leader Simon Bridges had previously dismissed the UMR polls because of the link with the Labour Party.

  3. If there is one thing this poll shows and I mean ONE thing, Muller comes across better than Bridges did, that’s all! Now, that isn’t actually to hard to achieve, but his party rising by only 1 % shows that those polled still don’t believe the message.

    • But,… what message was there ever from the Nats and Muller?

      That just because they like to be seen wearing suits and ties they are better managers of the economy? Look what happened under the corrupt John Key , – creating destructive class divisions and leaving our infrastructure in tatters! Whoever was responsible for creating that bogus image in the first place anyways?

      The self entitled born to rule outfit?

      Well they can take a very long hike and jump into a lake.

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