BREAKING: TV 3 POLL – Labour 56.5%! Majority Government possible!


POW – TV 3 POLL!!!
Labour – 56.5%
National 30.6%
Green 5.5%
NZF 2.7%
ACT 1.8%

As I argued earlier this month, Labour will win a majority Government.

New Zealand has believed in the Prime Minister, they have watched her at 1pm daily while their lives were at risk and they trust her.

Normally most would have seen her in a  30 second sound bite or in a short interview, but day after day they saw her answer questions and provide genuine leadership during a time of crisis and then they compared that to the daily train wreck of Trump.

New Zealanders are thanking their lucky stars Jacinda is in power and are genuinely moved by her. She has steered us through terrorism, volcanism and now the maybe bubonic plague with a leadership style that has actually redefined leadership in a unique way, and we are a better nation for it.

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The extraordinary social media attack on Bridges tone deafness and any journalist who asks a dumb question highlights the sense of shared sacrifice New Zealanders feel they have made and the loyalty that now generates for Ardern

NZers feels like they have fallen over and Jacinda has bent over, given us a hug, promised it will be ok and that she will be there to help them get back onto their feet.

Simon Bridges is yelling, ‘get up you sissy wimp, we’ve got work to do”.

The electorate wants kindness, they don’t want arsehole.

The Greens at 5.5% must go into crisis mode to stop from crashing into the oblivion of the 5% threshold, NZF is in serious danger and National don’t have the spine to knife Simon Bridges.

This is an extraordinary result for Labour and will only grow once Jacinda starts the election as her confidence and polish makes her battle hardened unlike any leader in modern times.

For the first time in MMP history we could have a majority Party win.

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  1. New Zealanders are thanking their lucky stars Jacinda is in power and are genuinely moved by her.

    I feel like she has given us back our sense of identity as a nation, and that we can again stand tall in the world and feel proud of who we are, people of Aotearoa New Zealand. I feel very thankful.

  2. Read the fine print. “A survey was taken …” A survey masquerading as a Poll.

    Its a “First Past the Post” Survey/Poll

    Gweeens are dog tucker as they over-poll at every election

    Dont right off Winston!

    Luxtons warming up the Jet!

  3. Yes;we have no reason to vote for National, as they only had “build more roads” on their vision for appeasing the ‘ROAD TRANSPORT FORUM’ which is controlled by the trucking industry/oil companies /truck building industry who will kill roads/and speed climate change; – so it’s time to go National bye bye..

    At least National shot themselves in the foot following that road transport mob while Labour/NZF and Greens all backed our rail.

    Smart move Labour coalition.

    Silly wrong turn there Simon Bridges.. Ha ha ha ha ha ha.

  4. In some ways, this is something to celebrate.

    i question though, “how will the superfluousness of the Greens help in the bigger picture?”

    • Not much really. People learn the hard way that they just can’t trash talk about winners. Yknow even back when Jacinda was going at it for the Byelection in MtWellington you could tell she was way ahead of her competitors. There was a moment in a panel debate back when Jacinda was just a list MP in 2015 I think Phill Goff had just taken off for the Auckland mayor race and Jacinda was asked a question about how Labour would pay for something but she didn’t really take the bait and answered with government bonds or something it wasn’t perfect but you could just tell that she was going to be Prime Minister even back then she just had a complete game. It’s not until now when the numbers are overwhelmingly in Jacinda’s favour do people now realize okay Jacinda is the real deal but Andrew Little saw something Yknow he made her deputy and eventually Leader of the Labour Party and the caucuse recognized something straight away and now Yknow. Yknow be humble and just work on your own game and don’t worry about what other parties are doing.

  5. I personally think it is all part of a cunning plan. Keep the game running with Simon looking evermore unelectable, then pull the ol’ swifty, and suddenly slip Paula Bennefit in charge a couple of months before the election, then – SHABOOOM! They hit 15%.
    That’s what Baldrick would do.

  6. The big battle is going to be in Northland. Winston Peters being in Parliament has led to dramatically more attention and expectation. Whatever the haters of Peters say, in a sense he has put Northland on the map.

    The thanks and reward he gets? Could be that he and his whole band will be gone. That certainly wouldn’t be a surprise from Northland voters. What tends to be forgotten is that at the last election Peters was only beaten by Matt King by 1390 votes. Not that many have to change.

    On TV3 they said Act, with 1.8%, would have two MPs. NZF is on 2.7%. If Peters can close that gap they could still have a presence in Parliament. s

  7. Great article Martyn.
    Ardern has the measure of any National MP they put up against her.
    They cannot land a punch at all.
    She seems to have a ready and logical answer at all times.

    But also, she is seen a very good representative of NZ while overseas.
    I just cant imagine Bridges being seen overseas in the same light.

    He would be more likely be seen as an embarrassment and a very poor replacement.

  8. 7 of the 9 poverty measures have worsened under her watch, but Ardern says nice things…fuck me, how pathetic today’s left have become. Treating a public servant as a celebrity is not good for democracy. I suppose if Labour get a majority, neoliberalism will be destroyed right Martyn? Same old deluded left. Voting for Labour is no different today from voting National. We all deserve better.

    • Amen.
      Although it’s wrong to blame the electorate I also shake my head at people who are so easily led.
      Same non thinking celeb adoration as kept Key in office.
      Scomo in Aussie has gone from -20% approval to +26% a crisis is a great wave to ride.
      But open your eyes people, the broken things in NZ are not being fixed and economic pain is about to hit.

    • Do you have any links to support your comment –

      “7 of the 9 poverty measures have worsened under her watch, but Ardern says nice things”

  9. Hi Martyn and all Jacinda fans.
    Crack openthe bubbly.
    Start celebrating.
    Absolutely nothing can go wrong from here.
    Congratulations to you all.
    It’s in the bag.

  10. Personally I would say that the Greens holding at 5.5% is a remarkably good effort at a time when they have been almost invisible and Labour running rampant.

  11. ” Simon Bridges is yelling, ‘get up you sissy wimp, we’ve got work to do”. ”
    No, what he’s actually yelling is “Simon Bridges is yelling, ‘get up you sissy wimp, YOU’VE got work to do”.
    If Soimon ever got near running things, his primary concern (like many gNatz) would be feathering his own nest and those of his mates.

    My only hope is that the gNatz don’t dump him and things continue on this trajectory. I won’t have to feel so bad about not voting for Labour come September after a lifetime. I can no longer in all good conscience vote for Labour until they show
    – a greater commitment to alleviating Child poverty and poverty in general
    – a greater commitment to the environment
    – fair and decent immigration policy that treats all immigrants and refugees equitably, with dignity and that doesn’t bullshit to people, change the rules on them midway through the social contract that has been made with them. or allow them to be exploited. (It’ll be policy that is from this point on NZ/Pacific-centric and one that ensures employment rights and tertiary standards are improved – not one that ensures the downward trend). When that happens it’ll benefit everyone
    – a serious commitment to AT LEAST beginning the process of public sector reform – especially in social welfare, education and health. Reform that ensures we don’t ever see things such as state agencies using the likes of T&C spying on people; where an Ombudsman is prevented from carrying out his job, where public servants think they have a divine right to obfuscate and circumvent the OIA or to push back against policies of a democratically elected government they don’t happen to like – regardless of political stripe.
    – a serious commitment to supporting public media and the 4th Estate that gives a plurality of voices a platform to be heard and seen.

    I’m hoping that by September there’ll at least be indications Labour truly does intend being kindly transformational because if ever there was a time, it’s now

  12. Just been talking about the present govt on a more skeptical comment stream .. reflecting social democrat views of them. If they don’t look after the neediest in the next term they can fuck themselves. Moreover, coming and going.

  13. Adern will almost undoubtedly win a 2nd term, but it is unlikely be with more than 50% of the electoral vote since the gloss will have started to wear off by September.
    The only way she will govern alone is if the greens and Winston First both dip under 5%, which would leave Labour with about 60% of the residual vote.
    Getting rid of Bridges isn’t about cowardice, it is about the potential replacement knowing that they can’t possibly win. You saw this when Labour was in opposition for 9 years, nobody wanted control of a party they didn’t believe could win.

  14. Bill English led chiNational to a sub-21% result in the 2002 General Election.

    Obviously, some slow learners have finally woken up to the fact that their trickle down economic policies are a sham. It’s a pity it took a disaster of such proportions, but at least they’ve clicked.

    And the nutty Nats badly exposed their lack of substance by howling that the Govt should somehow fund everything to get through this crisis without it costing anyone a cent! An ‘argument’ so bizarre that not one socially-distanced conversation from Cape Reinga to the Bluff can fathom it.

    The question is – what is the actual core nutty Nat vote? That non-thinking, non-blinking reflex nutty Nat voter.
    In the words of the limbo dancer, “How low can you go?”
    Because that stinking festering heap has further to fall yet.

    • You mean as opposed to the nutty core of Labour, Greens, Winston First or ACT?
      All parties have them. To find out if YOU are one of them, you only need to ask yourself if you have voted anything but Labour in the last 4 elections.

      • Nope. I mean nutty National as in the whole party.
        The appellation comes from the madness of their recent decade long stint at “governing” the country, where they allowed unfettered imigration, rampant house price inflation, oversaw appalling environmental degradation and the transformation of our labour market resulting in low paid precarious jobs being the only significant opportunity for nascent workers.
        Hence, nutty National. And their recent exposure as all bluff and bluster with no policies to effectively address our current problems just reinforces the fact.

  15. I am sceptical of polls in the age of dirty politics. But at the end of the day, a lot of people in NZ enjoyed Covid as a type of enforced holiday with your loved ones, when you were still paid. Something unheard of for workers for a start.

    In addition the air quality has improved, congestion went to zero, beneficiaries got an extra $100 from the winter power payments, people had quality of time to enjoy with loved ones and they were not constantly bringing in more people for flakey courses, tourism and low wage jobs when they shut the border, thus for a brief period of time, neoliberalism could not expand in NZ.

    Whether the polls still look the same when the above goes back to growth, growth, growth of poorer working conditions and competition for everything from housing to jobs to water… who knows.

    This ‘poem’ got millions of views and translated into many languages which shows how universally hated neoliberalism has become.

    • Once the hangover from this lockdown arrives, there are going to be a LOT of people angry with their lot despite the fact that National largely agreed with this approach.
      At that point, the polls will turn ugly for Labour but this is unlikely to happen before the next election.
      However, this pretty much guarantees that Labour will get only 2 terms.

    • They also solved homelessness because without the 4 million tourists and 300,000+ foreign students and temporary residents flooding into NZ with the border closed, there were plenty of hotels left to put the homeless in.


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