Interesting column in stuff this weekend asking if the Green could slip under 5%…
After the trauma of 2017, the Green Party know they’re in a battle to make it back into Government at the next election. Co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson tell Thomas Coughlan how they plan to overcome a political hoodoo.
…I’ve voted Green all my adult life but I fear the current focus on alienating Identity Politics and incremental empty gesture virtue signalling climate change policy have set them up to collapse in 2020.
The Greens have gone backwards in terms of Party vote every election since 2011, (11.06% in 2011, 10.7% in 2014 and then 6.3% in 2017), they over poll every election so today’s 6% can easily equate to 4.9% on election day.
The Greens are stalling electorally. I’d suggest their their woke ‘blame-all-white-people-for-terrorism’ coms strategy in the wake of the Christchurch atrocity was a blunder and attempting to reclaim the word cunt unsurprisingly hasn’t borne any mass movement.
When they have attempted to do something meaningful on climate change, the resulting policy has been nothing more than empty gestures and virtue signalling.
The Greens state the fight against climate change is the same as the fight against fascism, but the current Government’s environmental strides are baby steps made by a sleeping infant. The nonsense plastic bag ban, the meaningless carbon neutral by 2050, the pitiful Electric Car policies and the latest nothings to force Farmers to pay for their pollution in the ETS are all greenwash that go no where
If we were to mix the analogy, the Greens would declare that we are going to war with the Nazi’s and here are the vegan sleeping bags they’ve knitted out of hemp for us to fight them with. I mean, great we’ve got some vegan sleeping bags knitted out of hemp, but I think the defeat of the Nazi death machine might require something a tad more lethal than vegan sleeping bags knitted with hemp.
Likewise, climate change won’t be defeated by some vague promise of doing something by the middle of this century.
The NZ Greens have all the offensive capacity of resting moss.
To stay politically relevant, the Greens need to put together a coms strategy that is focused on two things in 2020 – climate change and the cannabis referendum.
They should have had a plan to connect with as many 16 and 17 year olds involved in the kids school strike for climate and focus on them for the 2020 election when many will be able to vote for the first time. This needs to be paired with a strong cannabis referendum promotion and they need to stay on track with just those to guarantee they get back into Parliament.
Unfortunately I don’t think they have the strategic self reflection or discipline to stay on message.
The Green Party has been captured by the cult of woke identity politics and they can’t see how alienating that has become. The new mantra of the woke is inclusion through exclusion, (think the Pride Parade schism this year). The deplatforming culture, the cancellation culture, the outrage olympics micro aggression policing culture, sadly they are all functional elements of the Green Party activist base online in social media.
With the looming debate on hate speech drawing closer, the Green MPs and activists won’t be able to help themselves. Their ‘free speech = white supremacist Nazi’ mentality will manage to alienate and give Jacinda extra party vote instead of going to the Greens.
If this starts playing out and the narrative becomes ‘might the Greens fall under 5%’, it will become self fulfilling. The National Party’s sudden desire to paint the Greens out as extremists with their electric car Feebate criticism suggests National Party strategists will be coming to the same conclusion.
I’d put the chances of the Green getting back in next year at 40%