TVNZ Poll vs TV3 Poll – what the bloody hell is happening?

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TVNZ Poll
Labour – 42%
National – 44%
Green – 6%
NZ First 5%

TV 3 Poll
Labour -50.8%
National -37.4%
Green – 6.2%
NZ First – 2.8%

The poll results last night are the worst possible outcome for pundits  because no one has any clear idea which one is right – TVNZ uses 50% landline & 50% cell phones and that methodology suggests something very different to TV3s 75% landline/25% online poll.

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I think the flux we are seeing here is an electorate divided.

The simple truth is that National haven’t done a bloody thing to deserve 44% OR 37.4%.

Labour’s hollow Wellbeing Budget sure as Christ doesn’t deserve 42% or 50.8%.

NZ First are a spent political force until its 6 months out from any election so anything they Poll now doesn’t matter.

And no one cares about the Greens.

Anyone trying to make definitive calls on these two polls is missing how culturally divided we are becoming.

22 COMMENTS

  1. opinions are probably in a state of flux. Jacinda has come through as an outstanding ambassador and figurehead; the qualities head of state needs, but now the moment of crisis of security has passed, the budget has returned our thoughts to the actual job of government as a whole. And it’s roll on neoliberalism and austerity .
    No doubt Jacinda wants to make a fairer society but with the finance team she has calling the shots she is not in a position to do so.
    D J S

  2. Pretty well summed up.
    Useless opposition, “aspirational” meaningless government policy with some dumb ideology thrown in for extra division. (Bring on 60 km/hr open road speed limits and see what happens)
    Blinkered tribal left and right thinking their mob is doing great, Working people thinking they are all a bunch of out of touch spankers.
    If there was an option to turf the whole lot and start again I’m sure that poll
    would be interesting reading.

  3. We are going the way of America, where the country is so partisan you seriously get the feeling it would only take a small spark to start another civil war.

  4. One thing I respected about Bolger, he would never comment on opinion polls. Both our current leaders would do well to follow his example.

    • Bugger the polls and the pollsters …”strong criticism international polling companies got after failing to pick up trends in the US and British elections”

      An interesting analysis of present day polling and the last election, where at least one got it right

      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/25/49900/bugger-the-pollsters-not-this-time#

      …”Former Prime Minister Jim Bolger once famously said “Bugger the pollsters” on the eve of the 1993 election and Winston Peters consistently rubbishes the established polls.

      Robertson has some sympathy for Peters. “I think that 10 years ago he had a point, when the polls regularly underestimated NZ First support but voters have no other bellwether to measure politicians against – particularly when they say they are leading an electorate and it turns out they are not. There is no other way to get a view of what the public really think.”…

  5. Various academics used to talk about neo liberal psychology “atomising the working class”–the population being reduced to individual consumers, alone, without collective purpose, motivated by shifting self interest alone.

    There are certainly countless divisions among the precariat and other groups in how they see themselves via the class relationships that still underpin capitalist society.

    The old class relationships remain, no matter how many Ubers and Couriers scurry about, and the Neo Liberal consensus between National and Labour remains. It has to be the political priority of our era to end that consensus.

  6. This is an illustration of a reality becoming unstable. The inconsistency of the two snapshots suggests an instability in the psychic background field, warp storms or eddies in the immaterium possibly portents of an approaching warp/portal storm swarm, mass psychogenic phenomenon, generalized reality collapse. Chaos is inevitable

  7. Is their cunning plan working…?
    In my personal opinion:
    neo liberal criminal michael cullen still stalks labours halls while winnie is a liar, a traitor and and has yet to be arrested criminal and just in today and see below, is he also a pro -israeli extremist paving the way for a zionist colonisation process of AO/NZ? The green party is headed up by a oily corporate minion and the only, and dangerously so, person who could have risen up The Greens and injected some soul and courage into them was thrown under a bus for admitting she had to mislead WINZ to survive when she could have become a legal, tax paying prostitute thanks to maurice williamson and tim barnett. And lets not forget our lovely jacinda. Working for the evil clown blair who, along with the other evil clown bush slaughtered millions of innocent Middle Easterners for their oil baron Over Lords.
    The natzo’s? Where to begin??
    At least we know who, or rather what, they are. They’re so entirely narcissistic and egotistical that it’d be impossible for them to hide anything of a disdainful and loathsome attitude towards their perceived lessors. And that is us.
    Our post neo liberal politicians are united across the house in coming after us. They will have struck deals with scoundrels ( Cheers @Chris Trotter.) and that, is to me, entirely obvious because homelessness, child poverty, destitution, desperation, fear, disease and a sense of hopeless pointlessness are our wages. Those things are their gift to us. And our politicians have DONE NOTHING to reverse that, for the want of a better name,’evil’ trend.
    The Polls are divided and in disarray because THEY have created a climate of confusion, a sense of hopelessness and disparate political thinking.
    A perfect storm for a bloodless coup`, one might argue.

    • re …”winnie is a liar, a traitor and and has yet to be arrested criminal and just in today and see below, is he also a pro -israeli extremist paving the way for a zionist colonisation process of AO/NZ?”

      where are the links you refer to regarding your assertions on Winston Peters?

    • re [The ] “person who could have risen up The Greens and injected some soul and courage into them was thrown under a bus for admitting she had to mislead WINZ to survive when she could have become a legal, tax paying prostitute thanks to maurice williamson and tim barnett”

      …too bad she repulsed and disgusted genuine hard up beneficiaries then!

      …and why didnt she stick to her guns and not resign ?

      …and why did she resign within hours after the John Campbell interview with her outraged relatives?

    • I like tea.
      Did you know? That the rind of the bergamot orange in Earl Grey tea is believed to be very effective at scavenging negative cholesterol? It’s said that it’s as effective as a statin. Imagine? A cup of Earl Grey tea and a few drops of CBD oil? I know? Amazing, right? I’m very much in favour of a nice cup of tea and a wee lie down.
      But of course, we live in an anal retentive, Americlone nightmare of shuffling, be-suited mad bastards getting pissed on our money making up stupid fucking laws for the fission’s up their diddles or Ver Jay-Jay’s.
      One more thing.
      Mopes dying in car crashes? Fucking idiots! The bastards breed and vote. That, should worry us all. Passive aggressive arseholes barely in control of hi-speed, two ton death machines going in the opposite direction past me with barely 2 meters between us at ANY fucking speed worries me greatly.
      Warning! If you tail-gate me? You will see an amazing transformation in this homo sapien. You will see a modest male human return to his roots in the Rift Valley, leap from his tree-car, rip your fucking arms off then shove them both up your arsehole. You should probably take your wrist watch off.
      Now, where was I ? Oh yes. A nice cup of tea.

  8. Of course this country is politically divided, always has been and always will be. Our adversarial system of govt decrees constant shoot outs from tribal bunkers. Chuck in law, privilege, greed, religion, gender, race and you have the cocktail called western civilisation. Every now and then a light appears in the murk to lead us into the sunshine, for example in recent times; Robert Kennedy, Norm Kirk and now Jacinda Ardern.

    Look out mama there’s a white boat coming up the river……………..

  9. I see no problem, Martyn can argue that the Natz have done nothing to deserve their figures, but the same can also be said for the Labour coalition who, aside from sticking the airhead above the parapet to garner votes from the weak minded, easily influenced types, have also done sfa.

    In another column this morning perennial whinger John Minto reveals NZ First’s complicity with apartheid israel – nothing will come of this whinge as Peters will argue successfully in cabinet, that just like every other party, NZ First needs money backers and given the carry on about the bucks they used to take from horse racing and fishing interests, thst spouting apologies for a genocide far distant from Aotearoa, is one of the few viable funding options NZ First has.

    The current government mob are pragmatists – fucking clumsy & uncaring pragmatists, but when the beehive is chocka on all sides with greedily opportunistic careerists what else do you expect?

    Neither poll outta the rapidly dying broadcast vid channels means a goddamn thing.
    TV3 relies too much on landlines so it gets old stick in the mud conservatives as they are the only types still reliant on landlines.

    TVNZ does little better as, speaking as someone who worked in what used to be called ‘market research’ the cheapest option which can be argued is objective, being the path always trodden.
    This means the cell phones accessed will be from a handful of middle aged types foolish enough to allow their actual real cell numbers out there enough to be scraped.

    I doubt I know anyone foolish enough to fit into either category – that is landlines which are not ex-directory or, who put anything other than 021 BULLDUST into the ubiquitous online ‘forms’ which won’t move on to the next stage without a mob #. Those who have, quickly correct their naivety the first time they receive an urgent txt from an arsehole bot at 3.00am.

    These type of scrape surveys are nearly as inaccurate as the push ones where newspapers encourage the right wing talkback radio spruikingtypes to volunteer their POV on issues, and that is also a battle where he who has the most expensive bot takes all.

    People polling is in a state of flux verging on crisis at the moment because no one has devised a method which objectively samples across the entire voting population.

    The 2017 englander general election revealed exactly how far off the wall contemporary polling can get when May’s pre-election poll figures gave her an extra 40 to 50 seats to ran home brexit and destroy Mr Corbyn yet polling on the day – the actual election – had her losing 8 seats IIRC.

    Altho some alterations have been made to sample more cell phone users, the tech aware types, voters whose views are more likely to vary between elections remain mostly inaccessible to the pollsters – not that any of them acknowledge this -especially not to their clients who they attempt to sell on “objective correction algorithms not unlike error correction in a science experiment”.

    It is all bullshit so mostly what they do is run small samples of face to face interviews then extrapolate that on top of their big poll. The problem is that not only is face to face polling incredibly expensive, small sample groups = large inaccuracy.

  10. Its obvious. One poll is correct the other is rogue

    Which one?

    Choose the one that follows the TREND

    but whichever way you look at it, Burning Bridges is about to become a National party agenda item

    Pity. Bridges was the Left’s best secret weapon for 2020

  11. Colmar Brunton are also reporting a big drop in support for legalising the herb (2018 for 46% against 41%, 2019 for 39% against 52%). I’m sure I also read two thirds of NZers were for legalisation, so who knows. Why wouldn’t you legalise? Jess, help me out.

  12. I have spent long enough reading aspects of Statistics to know…

    It sounds like the sample is faulty and the idea of getting the B/S information they do…” if a election was held tomorrow the Govt would look like this..”

    Is so much of a stretch it ranks along side ‘I think God wants me to..

  13. TVNZ, One News, or whatever it’s called .. it’s just a Boomer/National-Party propaganda channel at worst and a rugby news station at best.

    Blah.

  14. Pollsters “talk” to whoever about whatever.

    Talking may be actual, you know ,actual face to face. Nah forget it. WAY TOO EXPENSIVE AND TIME CONSUMING.

    Cellphone users are not very likely to be friendly to random calls about voting (we do not wear cell phones to answer political questions).

    Omitting some teenagers (of whatever age) most of us use cell phones for practical reasons, while otherwise occupied.

    Landline users are probably of a certain demographic.

    Of course there is always facebook and other “social media” that can be relied upon.

    Pollsters are, and always have been irrelevant. Pollsters only cater to media chatterers and politicians.

    Poll respondents lie, it has been known. Check oz exit polls, Shorten won?

    Media would never admit it, it could remove a source of a “breaking news” and HEADLINE.

    Ho hum, no poll, another desperate day in the editorial room.

  15. Yes put the two polls together and use the average of both; – and the right answer is found.

  16. I think regardless of the difference in these polls they both show soimon is extremely unpopular and in my view he will be gone after the next election and Amy Adams and Mark the mercenary will be vying for leadership.

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