The atrocity in Christchurch will have enormous societal and political reverberations, it has reset the cultural landscape in an enormous way and trying to ascertain how something of this magnitude impacts everything will be a bunch of haphazard guesses.
So here are my haphazard guesses.
Cultural:
I think there are two cultural issues, the first is white supremacy and the second is the act of violence itself. As a white colonial country, white supremacy permeates all parts of our culture, from the broken promise of the Treaty, to taking 137 years to apologise for Parihaka, to Asian NZers facing the highest level of racial abuse week to week, to Pacific Island poverty rates, to Māori incarceration rates, to street violence and harassment against Muslims. While I don’t think domestic bigotry caused this atrocity (because Tarrant’s own manifesto shows his vile strain of white supremacy was Internationally sourced and radicalised), I do think we need cultural reflection on racism as part of the healing.
Domestic bigotry didn’t cause this act of violence, but healing domestic bigotry is going to be needed to get over this act of violence.
We have to be kinder to one another and we have to be more proactive in ensuring everyones agency is respected and enhanced and equal.
That’s a hell of a cultural task to undertake and the level of nuance required for such a debate is utterly lacking in the personal outrage olympics of social media, but cooler, kinder voices must lead this debate if this atrocity is to have some purposeful and meaningful change.
Gun culture will also need to be challenged and no inch given when the new laws banning semi-automatic machine guns comes out. It needs to go further. A gun registry and more scrutiny of gun owners is necessary so the intelligence agencies can keep an eye on them. Owning a gun must be seen as a privilege, not a right, and that privilege comes with a heightened state of awareness of gun owners to the SIS, Police and GCSB. That’s the price of gun ownership from now on.
Societal:
There will be an enormous push for a ratcheting up of state surveillance powers, permanent arming of Police and restrictions on free speech.
We must resist each one of these.
The State had and has enough mass surveillance powers, that’s not the bloody problem, the bloody problem is that the GCSB, SIS & Police have seen gangs, environmentalists, Greenpeace, Green Party, social justice activists, young male Muslims, the MANA Party and earthquake victims as the threat, not white supremacists.
The Police were told on multiple occasions that Tarrant was a threat. Muslims told Government agencies over many years that street violence against them was increasing and this white supremacist plotted an atrocity for two years while crossing the border on multiple trips.
If the state intelligence apparatus had viewed white supremacists as a threat, there is a possibility this horror would have been prevented. I don’t trust the state with the mass surveillance powers they currently have, how about they use those ones properly first before we start granting them more to abuse?
In terms of Police armed permanently, we should resist that. The vast majority of Police just don’t have the training to use firearms in every day situations, so a vast increase in training budget is needed because we must acknowledge the threat paradigm has shifted, BUT we must demand Police without guns returns to normal once we are past the 6 week copycat/retaliation reverberation of a terrorist event like this.
It is our culture to have unarmed Police, and while guns will now have to always be available and Police will need to ratchet up their members shooting skills, we must not lose this peaceful part of who we are by having unarmed Police.
The free speech restrictions are already looming and I while think we desperately need a relook at the definitions of hate speech and how platforms like Facebook and Youtube must be regulated, we should resist knee-jerk calls to create definitions and restrictions that are set by micro aggressions.
The vast majority of us would recoil in disgust at hate speech that called on violence or incited violence and no one thinks it would be appropriate for TVNZ, RNZ, Mediaworks, Fairfax or the Herald to run live uncensored murder on any of their platforms, so why the hell should Facebook and Youtube? I believe there is common ground for civic regulation of speech, but micro aggression themed hate speech would quickly become an onerous deadweight on democracy and counter productively become a source for toxic rebellion.
To allow white supremacists to rob us of our freedom to speak would be an obscenity. Now is the time to challenge their warped views and drag them out into the sunlight, not allow it to stay deep in the wound and turn sceptic.
Political:
This is what I’m doing when I’m not promoting far right UN conspiracy theories
Labour: Jacinda’s remarkable leadership has impressed middle New Zealand, and they will respect her at the polls come what may. Her empathy and compassion and strength have made us a better people. Labour will be the largest political party at the 2020 election.
National: While National had no idea their co-opting of a far right UN conspiracy would lead to James Shaw being punched or align with a mass murdering white supremacist, they still smell bad from the association. The manner in which Judith Collins has come out with more empathy than her entire time in politics shows she has understood how rapidly the political tide has turned. I wouldn’t be surprised to see National start to drop heavily in the polls now, any hope they had of gerrymandering a win by being the biggest Political party while sinking Labour’s coalition parties beneath 5% and taking the Government majority is a pipe dream now. Those National voters in the middle will vote for Jacinda out of respect and those on the right will angrily demand a more culture war politics from a National Party that can’t give them that. Judith won’t move before the election now, she will allow Simon to take the loss and immediately challenge him after he fails at the ballot box.
Greens: Their current desire to connect micro aggressions to macro violence and blame Pakeha for this act of white supremacy violence will probably be huge on Twitter but be the final straw for the more centrist Green voter. Still a good chance they will slip under 5%
NZ First: NZ First will not be able to blow any of their dog whistles any longer and will be reliant on Shane Jones winning Northland to remain in Parliament.
ACT: If Seymour plays the culture war card far harder than National, he has a real chance of pulling in an extra 2 or 3 MPs. Because he was on Dancing with the Stars, he can frame his elevated hard right assertions which would get written off as hate speech in the new climate as under grad ‘just asking questions’ styled smart arseism.
New Conservatives: Their proximity to the UN conspiracy makes them too radioactive and they will need to roll back lots of their messaging which is what makes them attractive to rednecks in the first place. Sub 5% but will pick up angry disaffected voters.
Blue Green: While this political vehicle was supposed to just be a spoiler for the Greens, those National voters liberal enough to vote environmentally will be equally appalled at the UN conspiracy stuff. The Blue Greens will quickly turn into a protest vote for those voters. It won’t give them 5%, but it will hurt National and the wider right wing vote.
TOP: Will benefit from the same above dynamic.
New Political Party? There’s always the chance of a new political party that spins things out of the predictable.
That’s all a snap shot of where we are at barely 2 weeks from this atrocity, and of course all could change in a month, but that’s how I see it right now.
An aside from all of this. I’m happy if the Popo look a bit harder, and closer at the nutters from all parts of the ‘spectrum’. But, with a bit of nous; leave the ‘noisy’ bunch alone, because thats all they are. Head for the redneck havens, the RSA’s, the MC’ clubs (Bikie Gangs,the white ones), the wealthy private clubs where the rich can speak openly about their racism without a sense of been outed or rebuked by anyone. Even the Judiciary! The ole boys club, the “Northern Club!”
Will Andrew Little sign off warrants for investigators & ‘spies’ to go after these types? I doubt it, because the very people involved within the ‘Spy’ service and industry are a major part of the problem.
PS: Mana. Theyre fuck’d! Hooking up with those nutcase Nga Puhi Israeli Anti Semitism fuckwits!
Pretty much everything except breathing air here is already been long ago reduced to being “a privilege, not a right”, including, but not limited to, gun ownership. e.g. Owning a house, renting a house, getting a job, driving a car, getting a passport, getting a good education – not a single one of the things I listed above is a “right” in New Zealand. We seriously need a Constitution that protects unalienable, self-evident bonafide rights.
I think we go one of two ways. We either deminate power done to council level put giving them greater revenue generating powers and more local body council and community boards, or we strengthen central government with an upper house. Or we stick with the status quo.
Stop P trafficking and get the guns off the gangs before you kick law abiding firearms owners more.
Police had a 60 percent inaccuracy rate last time they ran a register.
Now they say they want one again, right after they charged the shooter with murdering someone who was still alive.
How horrifically ironic that gangs were “ protecting” the mosque afterwards, while some of the woke left even wanted responsible gun owners to have their movements tracked. Some gang members have even been allowed gun licenses ffs. Just to spell it out, illegal gun use is overwhelmingly a gang issue not a licensed gun holder issue.
The semi auto ban is widely accepted ( loose policy tidy up from previous governments ineptitude) how about extending the new feeling of brotherhood to all law abiding kiwis who have done no wrong, including those who have the (agreed) privilege to own arms? Licensing checks, when done properly are already quite in depth.
It’s far easier to call for others to lose civil liberties than your own, especially for no good reason.
+100 …good points…those that modify guns to be automatic are usually up to no good and are the real threat
“Stop P trafficking and get the guns off the gangs before you kick law abiding firearms owners more.”
Wasnt the ChCh shooter a “law abiding firearms owner”, until he wasn’t??
You sound like the Police.
“ Everyone is a criminal waiting to happen.” No love thy neighbor from you.
The guy was a foreign national who obtained a firearms license and guns with criminal intent, so no not a law abiding kiwi gun owner.
I notice you didn’t comment on the gangs.
“The guy was a foreign national who obtained a firearms license and guns with criminal intent, so no not a law abiding kiwi gun owner”
KEEPCALMCARRYON (caps cos i copy & pasted) he had a license thus he was a ” law abiding gun owner”. Whatever intent he had was known only to himself, as is with ALL ” law abiding gun owners”. There is no part of a gun licence application which asks whether or not your intent is criminal or not.
By definition every person who gets a gun licence is lwwful. Whay goes on in their mind is unknowable
“I notice you didn’t comment on the gangs”
Because I think its a red herring, IMHO
I’m not trolling you. I generally think your comments are amongst the good ones on this blog. I just happen to disagree with you
It’s cool to disagree. I’d say there are 250 000 people who wouldn’t like you painting this guy as a law abiding gun owner when he clearly was not of good character to hold a license or a kiwi.
The lefts answer to things they don’t understand is to regulate the other guy.
I’ve got genuine misgivings on what a gun register will do, and on police association motives.I suspect we are getting a register either way.
If you were my neighbour (and if it didn’t cause offence) I’d drop you around some venison to try and smooth the waters/buy you off 🙂
“I’d say there are 250 000 people who wouldn’t like you painting this guy as a law abiding gun owner when he clearly was not of good character to hold a license or a kiwi.”
Probably not, KEEPCALMCARRYON, but thats the basis upon which he got his license. Which then begs the question if there are other dodgy characters like him with gun licences and an unknown number of weapons
I’d hate to think that
I do get what you mean about being tarred with the same brush though
“If you were my neighbour (and if it didn’t cause offence) I’d drop you around some venison to try and smooth the waters/buy you off ”
Offence? None taken. As long as I provide the liquid refreshment? I think we’d have some good yarns over
The backyard fence☺
lol…dont want to spoil the new mates’ detente….but what about the 1080?
Well I’m Māori and cops would arrest me for fighting and instead of taking me to lock up they’d just drop me off at home and tell me to sleep it off. Not saying it’s lawful or anything but if we are going to give cops description then it’s on all of us to make statements and accounts and act post hast.
Martyn can you lay off the fucking white bashing for a while? It maybe good for ratings but it’s not helping the healing process.
White people are not solely to blame for all the bad shit in the past or everything thing that’s wrong in our country. It’s more like our own (human) imperfections & weaknesses, over zealous liberalism & fuckin globalisation that’s really at fault for the mess we’re in today.
I thought you’d also learnt a little from this tragedy, but I’m not so sure now.
Also, try to refrain from using the polarising words white supremacy, as it implies that any white patriotic NZer who may hold nationalistic views is an extremist or terrorist. White extremist or terrorist should suffice.
I don’t see you calling black power, who’ve been poncing around NZ mosques with their black power gang patches, black supremacists. If you want an in your face sign of racism in this country then the black power patch sure fits the bill.
Johnnybg, like WTF yanked your chain?
“Martyn can you lay off the fucking white bashing for a while? It maybe good for ratings but it’s not helping the healing process.
White people are not solely to blame for all the bad shit in the past or everything thing that’s wrong in our country”
Newsflah sunshine, colonisation, theft of land dispossession of culture, were all a product of colonisation. And that fucking colonisation was perpetrated by your precious WHITE race. Even the Black Power gang you invoked was a reaction of the dominabt white culture
Truth fucken hurts eh, Jbg??
“white supremacy, as it implies that any white patriotic NZer who may hold nationalistic views is an extremist or terrorist. White extremist or terrorist should suffice.”
BULLSHIT!! Are you for real?? Trying to sanitise white supremacy by portraying the killer as a terrorist??
Screw that. Your type are only too fucking happy to portray ISIS or Al Qaeda terrorists as MUSLIM extremists. The media and the alt.right continually use that phrase and you complain when we call Tarrant by what he is, a white supremacist??
His manifesto even referred to being “replaced”, FFS!! And slandered Turkey, to purify Europe. What the fuck would you call that??
You alt.righties can scream and cry your tears all you like. Boo hoo hoo You’ll get no fucking sympathy from the rest of NZ
Piss off, Martyn called it 100%
[Mjolnir, please rein in your over use of expletives. Thank you. – Scarletmod]
Point taken Scarletmod
+100 JOHNNYBG…good points…I also am sick of the “white (male) bashing”…and the Greens and their identity politics and guilt tripping
…in fact I have seriously been considering retiring from this site…and I certainly wont be giving the Greens any more donations
Hey R.B. I gave up commenting on here a while ago but the recent events inspired me to get back into it If nothing else it’s cathartic & therapeutic. There are some good people on here with some solid views & great ideas, hang in there comrade.
What about the time factor? People will forget how bad this was and sink back into their uncaring ways. The old National voters won’t give a rats arse about all this. I predict 40% plus as usual come 2020. Sorry Martin I agree 100 with your wish list but reality is something else. I am usually wrong and hope so again.
“I believe there is common ground for civic regulation of speech, but micro aggression themed hate speech would quickly become an onerous deadweight on democracy and counter productively become a source for toxic rebellion.”
Thing is Martyn, what is “micro” for you and me might not be so trivial for a person of colour. Defining hate speech through the prism of the dominant majority could end up a very porous law
However Stuff’s decision to remove hate & exrremist speech is a good start
Its time to clean up behavoour that we wouldnt accept in face to face real life
No idea what micro aggression means, I’m not that up with echo chamber terminology, but the anger fueled hate you send my way seems pretty macro to me. Maybe it’s time to purge TDB of angry hate peddlers as well. No worries, I’m sure the powers that be are already keeping tabs on the usual suspects like yourself.
One other concern should be: How will we defend this land, once climate chaos will lead to massive global changes, affecting billions of people economically and socially?
How will we deal with tens of thousands or more of climate refugees, who may one day indeed make it to our shores in whatever kinds of vessels, over treacherous seas?
How will we deal with a potential threat by other states and their armies, navies and airforces, when they feel pressed to conquer new fertile lands they do not have, to feed their population, as climate change may have devastated their economy so they cannot feed their people?
If you think that those potential ‘invaders’ that may actually become quite a reality within decades, can simply be fought off or managed by nice words to them, by embracing them like trees hugged by tree lovers, or by leaving it to an under funded NZ army, navy and virtually non existent airforce to deal with, then you live in fantasy land.
Banning the possession of certain weapons may stop some potential criminals or mass murderers commit atrocities, but it will also leave our population unarmed, totally dependent on military and police for their defence.
I feel this discussion must be had also, despite of the horror of Christchurch. If people are trained to use weapons responsible, and only for legally accepted, sensible purposes, then they can be trusted to have such arms.
My thoughts exactly. The new gun control measures are another short term thinking knee jerk reaction to the massacre. If they go ahead with a gun hand in amnesty then the weapons collected should not be destroyed. They should be given to the army, put under lock & key & earmarked for distribution if threats of a future invasion ever become a reality.
+100…and it is the sawn off shotguns and modified guns to becoming automatic that are the biggest concern …because they are usually done by criminals and as a means to criminal activity…and those in possession are often also not license holders
“The new gun control measures are another short term thinking knee jerk reaction to the massacre. ”
So how many more massacres and mass dhootings have to take place, Johnnybg, before a suitable response isn’t a “kneejerk reaction”??
Whats an acceptable body count?
Ban the damn things
End of
Disagree that National party supporters will switch to Labour for moral reasons. Their vote is purely based on selfish greed and what the party can offer them in the form of tax cuts, tax avoidance etc (along with the necessary welfare, education,and health cuts to fund it). That is the bottom line for National party voters-pure and simple! And they know that the party will deliver on this
A classic column Martyn. Simple as that.
Jacinda’s approach has sent ripples around the world whichever way you look at it. If re-elected the Neo Lib state sector tops and all the rest of it have to be dealt with as the political priority.
The Media is complicit in creating islamophobia.
How much attention is given to coverage of Muslim Terrorists compared to ‘white supremacists’.
Where is the humanising coverage of Muslim victims (I mean generally, not this specific situation)
Where is the coverage explaining WHY there are so many people on the move around the planet.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/20/muslim-terror-attacks-press-coverage-study
And it goes deeper than that…our media indifference to shooting of Muslims by Israel..all the more ironic given a number of the ChCh victims were Palestinian.
“And it goes deeper than that…our media indifference to shooting of Muslims by Israel..all the more ironic given a number of the ChCh victims were Palestinian.”
HYPOCRISY galore, I note, in the MSM, same within our supposed ‘caring’ government.
They still have warm ties with Israel (stuff the Palestinians back home), they still trade with Saudi Arabia (stuff that dissenting journalist that suddenly vanished into thin air, or perhaps acid liquid in or near the Saudi embassy or consulate in Istanbul).
We get ample reporting about warm fussies that Jacinda gave the odd relative of victims, of fearful and shocked members of the Muslim community, but when it comes to real actions on other important matters, it is all just like ‘business as usual’.
Where for instance is this government’s comment on Donald Trumps recent announcement to the effect, that the US supports Israel taking full control and ownership of the occupied Golan Heights???
good points SIOBHAN and MARC
Its, the ECONOMY, stupid, the ECONOMY, that will in the end decide the coming election(s). This saga will soon vanish into history, and NZers, rich and poor, will focus again on the day to day challenges and interests they have.
Globally the economy is slowing, that is slowing in growth.
We still live in an almost totally fossil fuel powered economy that is hell bent on growth, yes without growth, the panic buttons get pressed, releasing loud sirens, which will be send out also by relay by the MSM.
People worry about their jobs, about their incomes, about their assets, about this and that, so as horrific the Christchurch attacks were, they will fade into history.
The NZ people, born and immigrated, they vote with their pockets, what is in them, or not, and what they want in their pockets, decades of neoliberal indoctrination have ensured this is the standard behaviour of the bulk of the population.
All else is of a lower priority.
Most will not be concerned with white supremacist fringe groups, although the terror attacks have heightened sensitivities in some. I note, most people carry on as per usual, go to work, earn their money, plan careers, study, save, spend and drink and eat and be merry at times at least.
There were hundreds to thousands at some events, all good, but the majority stayed home, went about things as per usual, and did not sacrifice much time and effort in memorial and sympathy expressions.
So let us get back to discuss also the pressing issues of our time, thanks, the courts will deal with this matter now, besides of what police and SIS and GCSB will do, some certainly to further curtail our rights to free expression and so forth.
I note with concern that some former critics of GCSB and SIS now even call for more power to be given to them, while they have proved again and again, they are not able to detect and prevent certain hideous actions.
The same happened in the US, in Europe and so, and still, there were attacks, bomb blasts, assassinations and the likes.
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