Has there been a period of time in NZ’s recent political history when there was so much seething political action and tensions beneath the skin of the body politic?
As MMP reproduces the failures of the tyranny of the majority by handing the vast majority of votes to two political parties, there are beep bubbles emanating from the political cauldron.
Threshold Parties:
Labour beat National in 2017 by eliminating National’s coalition partners the Māori Party and United Future. National will try the same tactic in 2020 by dragging NZ First and the Greens under 5% redistributing the lions share of the their wasted vote to the largest political party. Currently that’s National and while not winning an outright Parliamentary majority, would get there once wasted vote is redistributed. How will this impact NZ First and the Greens?
NZ First: Shane Jones will get handed the leadership by Winston if Jones can win Northland outright as an electorate MP, if he can do that, NZ First can drop under 5% and still get representation. They will be fending off a challenge from New Conservatives and Yellow Vests.
Greens: The middle class identity politics vehicle that the Greens have morphed into is alienating in its wokeness. A lack of tactical and strategic insight means they are likely to trip over themselves with another self-inflicted blunder before 2020. Once they slid under 5% in the Polls, it will be difficult to not look desperate. Will be facing a challenge from the Blue Greens, TOP and the anti-1080/anti-Vaxxer fanatics.
Sub 5% political embryos:
Blue Greens: National don’t care if Blue Greens get over 5%, it’s there to take enough votes off the Greens so they slip under 5%.
TOP:Their plans for a fully regulated and taxed cannabis market where pundits can see themselves being able to buy some buds from a local dispensary will make the Greens value statement look timid. This alongside the hype of the referendum will push votes towards TOP not the Greens.
New Conservatives: Will try and weaponise the remainder of the Conservatives Party 4% and take it to a culture war level. Being fed by Yellow Vests, Anti-1080s, Anti-vaxxers and Destiny Church.
Pressure points:
Yellow Vests: Politically confused. Think the Yellow Vests in France are right wing because Macron is a ‘Socialist’ President. Fearful of change, identity alienated working class voters who are angry with the UN and immigration. Freaked out by Muslims.
Anti-1080, Climate deniers & Anti-Vaxers: InfoWars generation of lost voters with no concept of science. Dangerous as there are no authority figures, will align with any crazy offering them shelter. Ripe pickings for the New Conservatives.
Destiny Church: The Bish would want the New Conservatives to reach out to him and have a powerful Destiny Church identity made number 2 on the Party List.
What’s actually missing?
What’s actually missing is our own Corbyn or Sanders. Labour & the Greens are – despite all the protestations, effectively neoliberal economic agendas.
What is actually missing from the NZ Political spectrum is a new Party that is economically left in a real way with a focuses on free public services, real taxation change and immediate climate change adaptation that doesn’t look to the free market for solutions.
A real reposes to housing and poverty with a view on changing the neoliberal hegemonic structure and put power back into the hands of active Government Departments rather than bureaucratic passive free market managers.
If politics, climate change, social justice, poverty, homelessness and alienation are to be successfully challenged then the neoliberal economic frame work must be challenged. No political party is suggesting that, with means we get a spectrum where the right wing in Britain and Australia are where our Labour Party actually is.
We need a kiwi Corbyn or Sanders who can challenge the economic structure which is causing much of this damage we see.
Let’s see what happens this year from the caldron of politics, at the very least, there will be many voices calling for the MMP threshold to be lowered for a multitude of reasons.
Alt-right and CTRL left join to form the party of bad decisions. Labour and National fail the youth. South Islanders again wonder why they don’t just succeed and the ubernites spit in every ones faces.
Now combine this with all of the global forces and events that are going to be occurring and trying to predict what is going to become of political parties who fail constantly.
Bryan Gould.
The “wasted votes” debacle needs to be dealt with, pronto. It is anti-democratic and bizarre that we accept it as OK.
You vote for party A but if it fails to meet the threshold your vote gets redistributed to parties that do meet the threshold i.e. your vote is determined by other people.
When voting party vote you should be able to vote preferentially so that if your first choice(s) don’t make the threshold then the choice that first meets the threshold is where your vote gets allocated.
Hi,
We launched a new political party today called the NZ Constitution Party.
The aim of the NZ Constitution Party is:
• to form a Party led government bridled to the will of the People
• to reform, define and strengthen New Zealand’s constitutional monarchy with a codified written constitution that restores New Zealand’s jurisprudence to its historical foundations and that expands and contracts the Executive to its’ constitutional boundaries
• to promote good political values to secure the well being of the People
• to preserves the independence of the People by freeing the country of perpetual debt
• to adopt a written and flexible constitution that has been framed with the consent of the People
I know that most of our democratic and political problems stems from not having a written constitution. I also know that this Party can address the problems you raised in your article entitled “The cauldron that is NZ politics right now” and under the heading “What’s actually missing?”
I would like an opportunity to comments to your article if you are willing.
Sincerely,
Roma H. Warren (LLM/Hons)
Party Founder & President
Of course there is also the “Breakaway” movement. We’re all about establishing the autonomous Kingdom of Ayvangard & preparing the way for the creation of a sustainable & resilient Aotearoan or Zealandian Confederacy.
I’d be happy to work with the NZ Constitution Party on developing a constitutional framework for this post-globalisation confederacy. The Prophet of Zealandia.
“We need a kiwi Corbyn or Sanders who can challenge the economic structure which is causing much of this damage we see.”
As much as I agree 99% with you, Martyn, the remaining 1% of me would worry that the comfortable landed middle class would freak out and vote en masse for the Tories to protect their paper wealth.
Any rolling back of neoliberalism has to be done slowly and quietly. Otherwise we spook the “horses” (voters) and end up with a panicked gallop from the red/green paddock out into the blue paddock.
That is a rapidly shrinking vote you’re worrying about. Besides those horses have always been spooked, this has always been the Natz dog whistle. Isn’t there more value in mobilizing and huge number of inactive voters with radical policy?
What is missing?
There needs to be a nod to the global wave of nationalism. The old left are past their sell-by date and the woke left are quickly generating a backlash against their idiocy.
The question remains – who will take advantage of this? National are well placed to do so. One orewa-like speech from Bridges and they’re in government but I doubt any of them has the balls to do it.
One orewa like speech be beggared he talks craps most of the time and mumbles mostly he will need to do more than that to get in
Are you cooking some Meth, Martin? We won’t go there as the truth is a terrible companion, nor should we harbour thoughts of the Natz winning the next one. God how awfull.
There goes that meth again. It’s infested everything it shouldn’t.
I watched television news last night and was confronted with horror. Simon was literally shouting at the camera, his hearing aid had obviously malfunctioned, and the autocue words were being vomited by him with a snarl. His poor sub-host Wendy was so alarmed by his screaming that she had embedded her claws into the studio desk. Or maybe she was hanging on to the 6pm autocue reader job for grim life…
The article being reported on was the National Party retreat. Cutting to video of the retreat we were shown what appeared to be a psychiatric rest home, leaderless patients with their sunken staring eyes wondering around aimlessly. The last images shown were of Julie Bishop, dressed in clown makeup, brought in for fun Thursday occupational therapy (a moonlighting gig). She was banging a tambourine to the patients and chanting, hoping to bring them around to reality. Hopefully preaching principles of compassion, empathy, logic, truth and process to the patients, who drooled and rocked back and forth. Julie could have told them anything in their state; it probably wasn’t virtues and principles. Wendy back in the studio ended the report by stating that there was no awakening at the event, the members were too far gone, the disease too advanced.
In breaking news, a naked lawyer named “Simon” has been seen jumping from a window and fleeing the National Party retreat. He is described as white and Maori, left while right, and discrete but fucking useless. Police have urged the public to avoid this man as his policies are dangerous and his party is a desperate loner.
Thanks Jody i needed a giggle.
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