Has there been a period of time in NZ’s recent political history when there was so much seething political action and tensions beneath the skin of the body politic?
As MMP reproduces the failures of the tyranny of the majority by handing the vast majority of votes to two political parties, there are beep bubbles emanating from the political cauldron.
Labour beat National in 2017 by eliminating National’s coalition partners the Māori Party and United Future. National will try the same tactic in 2020 by dragging NZ First and the Greens under 5% redistributing the lions share of the their wasted vote to the largest political party. Currently that’s National and while not winning an outright Parliamentary majority, would get there once wasted vote is redistributed. How will this impact NZ First and the Greens?
NZ First: Shane Jones will get handed the leadership by Winston if Jones can win Northland outright as an electorate MP, if he can do that, NZ First can drop under 5% and still get representation. They will be fending off a challenge from New Conservatives and Yellow Vests.
Greens: The middle class identity politics vehicle that the Greens have morphed into is alienating in its wokeness. A lack of tactical and strategic insight means they are likely to trip over themselves with another self-inflicted blunder before 2020. Once they slid under 5% in the Polls, it will be difficult to not look desperate. Will be facing a challenge from the Blue Greens, TOP and the anti-1080/anti-Vaxxer fanatics.
Sub 5% political embryos:
Blue Greens: National don’t care if Blue Greens get over 5%, it’s there to take enough votes off the Greens so they slip under 5%.
TOP:Their plans for a fully regulated and taxed cannabis market where pundits can see themselves being able to buy some buds from a local dispensary will make the Greens value statement look timid. This alongside the hype of the referendum will push votes towards TOP not the Greens.
New Conservatives: Will try and weaponise the remainder of the Conservatives Party 4% and take it to a culture war level. Being fed by Yellow Vests, Anti-1080s, Anti-vaxxers and Destiny Church.
Yellow Vests: Politically confused. Think the Yellow Vests in France are right wing because Macron is a ‘Socialist’ President. Fearful of change, identity alienated working class voters who are angry with the UN and immigration. Freaked out by Muslims.
Anti-1080, Climate deniers & Anti-Vaxers: InfoWars generation of lost voters with no concept of science. Dangerous as there are no authority figures, will align with any crazy offering them shelter. Ripe pickings for the New Conservatives.
Destiny Church: The Bish would want the New Conservatives to reach out to him and have a powerful Destiny Church identity made number 2 on the Party List.
What’s actually missing?
What’s actually missing is our own Corbyn or Sanders. Labour & the Greens are – despite all the protestations, effectively neoliberal economic agendas.
What is actually missing from the NZ Political spectrum is a new Party that is economically left in a real way with a focuses on free public services, real taxation change and immediate climate change adaptation that doesn’t look to the free market for solutions.
A real reposes to housing and poverty with a view on changing the neoliberal hegemonic structure and put power back into the hands of active Government Departments rather than bureaucratic passive free market managers.
If politics, climate change, social justice, poverty, homelessness and alienation are to be successfully challenged then the neoliberal economic frame work must be challenged. No political party is suggesting that, with means we get a spectrum where the right wing in Britain and Australia are where our Labour Party actually is.
We need a kiwi Corbyn or Sanders who can challenge the economic structure which is causing much of this damage we see.
Let’s see what happens this year from the caldron of politics, at the very least, there will be many voices calling for the MMP threshold to be lowered for a multitude of reasons.