I never believed it would happen – I agree with Heather du-Plessis Allan?!?
She claims that the ‘Honeymoon’ is over for Labour.
She is pointing to the latest TVNZ Poll that shows Labour didn’t receive a ‘Honeymoon bounce’ and that means the ‘Honeymoon’ is over…
The first poll since taking office will likely have been gutting for Labour. The party’s support now sits at 38 per cent, up only 2 per cent from election day. Worse still, the party kicked out of power has gone up, too. National’s now on 46 per cent, up from 44 per cent.
You’d have expected a bigger bump for Labour. You’d have expected voters who didn’t like the idea of change to realise change isn’t that bad.
…Heather is kinda right, here’s however where I disagree with her on two crucial points.
1 – The poll result is actually much worse than Heather understands for the Left.
2 – There was never a bloody Honeymoon for Labour.
Let’s start with number 1.
The TVNZ Poll is much worse for the Left than most pundits seem to have understood. What is crucially different about this TVNZ Poll is its methodology. We on the Left have always argued one of the main problems with the landline opinion polls is that they are biased towards the wealthy middle who can afford landlines while younger, poorer voters predominantly use cell phones and their opinions are skipped and missed.
This poll was the very first one by TVNZ that used 50% landline and 50% cell phones, that methodology SHOULD have expanded the Left vote by a huge margin because it captured far more of those voters who had been ignored by the landline polls, but what happened?
The Left block remained unchanged and National actually went up!
That is bloody concerning for the Left.
But there is a very clear reason why that lift didn’t happen, and that leads us to point 2.
There never was a bloody honeymoon.
If you look at the manner in which the mainstream media allowed National to lie about the fiscal hole that didn’t exist, if you look at the manner the mainstream media ripped Metiria Turei to pieces, if you look at the way National have been given no criticism of the hollowness of the last 9 years, how National managed to hide all those failures over 9 years by a compliant media and how National have managed to be given more media attention since losing than the actual bloody Government you suddenly appreciate how despite a methodology change, the weight of propaganda is overwhelmingly to the right.
There is not one single host, or panelist on any opinion show that openly critiques the right wing paradigm of debate, we are wedded to the free market mantra economically, culturally and socially making any attempt to challenge the status quo as difficult as getting a Trump supporter to read the Guardian.
Our utter lack of ideological difference in the media means the 30 year neoliberal experiment of neoliberalism can never be challenged and its cultural mythology of individual success and failure uber alles stands unquestioned.
What the TVNZ Poll really shows us is just how entrenched those media biases are and how those neoliberal myths have become cultural fact and how media plurality is merely an illusion in NZ.