What does the final Q+A Poll mean and why it should freak out Labour

By   /   December 10, 2017  /   58 Comments

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So no bounce for the new Government and that is pretty grim, why is it so grim? This new Poll was taken using 50-50 cellphone and landline methodology . This is the best ever polling landscape for the Left yet all they’ve done is stay static in the final MMP numbers.

The last Poll for 2017 is out from TVNZ and it is grim.

National – 46%
Labour – 39%
Green – 7%
NZ First – 5%
TOP – 1%
Maori Party – 1%

So no bounce for the new Government and that is pretty grim, why is it so grim? This new Poll was taken using 50-50 cellphone and landline methodology . This is the best ever polling landscape for the Left yet all they’ve done is stay static in the final MMP numbers.

Labour believed they had lost on election night, despite being directly told that the specials would have an impact and to not sound so depressed. They didn’t believe they could win it up util the specials came in and only then did they suddenly get a glimmer of hope.

Even during the negotiations, Labour Party Wellington Mandarins almost screwed up negotiations with NZ First, so Labour wasn’t expecting to actually be the Government until Winston made his announcement meaning the slow sloppy start has been because of a total unpreparedness on Labour’s behalf.

Since then the new Government have stumbled on core issues for their activist base (TPPA & draconian welfare policies) and people are still waiting to see them do something meaningful and not surface level.

Extending paid parental leave for a few more weeks and $50 a week for tertiary students drowning in debt are meaningless bullshit to the large structural problems confronting us.

The new Government must take the time over summer to pause and consider radical responses to their communications and policy agenda process or National will demolish them from Opposition.


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  1. e-clectic says:

    The blue rump is fairly unshakeable, the new government will need time to produce some across the board gains before it sees any movement from blue to red/black/green.
    Noting the drop in NZF numbers, did they just drift back/towards transNational.

  2. let me be frank says:

    “The new Government must take the time over summer to pause and consider radical responses to their communications and policy agenda process or National will demolish them from Opposition”

    or they could just on with doing what they can to repair the country and let the voters decide how they have performed at the next election.

    • Steve King says:

      A problem that they have is that they have painted themselves into a corner with the “no new taxes” policy and the desire to be seen to be “fiscally responsible”. So even if they wanted to go with a bold suite of transformative policies they have already ruled it out. I really want them to succeed, and I think they will get there, but it’s not pretty to watch.

  3. Miles says:

    Yay, payback time. Despite shonky MMP, the electorate at large still wants National. New Zealanders love true democracy, not the cunning and betrayal that Winston showed during and after the neg. process. May this be the first nail in the coffin of the blatantly undemocratic MMP system, which rewards the minority at the expense of the majority. I hope Labour are freaking out, after all, they did not win the popular vote, and they are there in govt due to Winston Peters rather than public endorsement.
    And what a shambles it’s been, and still is. Poetic justice really, for grabbing power at any price.

    • aom says:

      Don’t be a dick Miles! National are not over 50%, 51% consider the country is headed in the right direction and Billy Liar is way behind Ardern.

    • Christine says:

      It’s a bit rich implying that the National Party does, or did, represent true democracy in New Zealand when during their tenure, they addressed the needs of so few, and were socially destructive in so many ways, leaving the coalition government to clear up after them.

      The fact is, the majority of NZ’ers wanted them dumped, and dumped they have been.

    • JO says:

      ‘And what a shambles it’s been, and still is. Poetic justice really, for grabbing power at any price.’

      One poll after these weeks of concentrated, media-assisted moaning, whining and toy-throwing? Your last sentence could equally describe National governments since 2008.

    • J S Bark J S Bark says:

      Oh dear! Poor ickle fing don’t like mean nasty MMP system? Still smarting coz the blue team fucked up?

      Allow me to rub some compassionate salt into your wounds…

      You lost because your shitty team couldn’t get enough votes to hold power. They went all out to win an FPP election when any schoolkid could’ve told them that don’t mean squat in an MMP system.

      Maybe nek time your dinosaur blue team buddies could try harder NOT to alienate so many potential political allies. They really have been the kiss of death to anyone who was an ally of theirs. Learn to play the fucking game tossers.

      A final kilo of salt:

      You find MMP undemocratic? Goody, goody, goody. That increases my enjoyment of our victory over the forces of evil and arseholeness. 🙂

      You lost, you lost, you lost. 😀

      • Andrea says:

        THE quote is: ““Eat that! You lost, we won… It is as simple as that!” (St M. Cullen – long ago 9 August 2000, Hansard.)

        I remember the glee with which he delivered it, too. Epic.

        National – still wriggling like the back end of a centipede when the front end’s been squished. Dead – but the message takes a while to get to the nether bit.

      • Anker says:

        100plus us bark lol

      • Geoff says:

        I’m liking it lol

    • bert says:

      Read all the appalling stories of Nationals dismal failures, not just polls Miles. This is why your support for National was a wasted vote. They lost because their governance of our country was disgusting and because of that, MMP bore through and chucked the corrupt National party out!

    • Michelle says:

      Funny how people like miles have no problem with MMP when it delivers who they want but now call for true democracy miles this country was not founded on true democracy how do you think we got the Maori seats it was racist, discriminative and assimilative policy. So was our land confiscated in the Waikato under the discriminative Rebellious Act. So I don’t think you should talk about true democracy not with our countries track record.

    • Samwise says:

      Since when is 44% a majority, Miles? 56% don’t want the Nets. That’s democracy.

  4. My suspicion is that National-leaning NZFirst voters have simply realigned their support back to National.

    Precisely the same would’ve happened if NZFirst had coalesced with the Nats: Labour-leaning NZFirst voters would’ve shifted their support back to Labour.

    It was kind of inevitable.

    Without doing the math, I suspect National’s “bump” correlates with NZFirst’s drop in the polls. Voter migration.

    • Louis says:

      Labour went up too. Wonder if the National party’s spamming filibustering in the house to obstruct the new government and the media largely being obstructive too has had an impact as well.

    • savenz says:

      NZ First is going downhill because the popular policies which was reducing immigration and saying no to TPPA has been a bit muted since they got into government or have they done a u turn on them? Who knows, but confusing messages from NZ First these days about their key policies.

    • bert says:

      But as stated Frank, National still have no friends.

  5. VeryConcerned says:

    Labour is cuddling up to the extreme end of the left, I guess to try and keep the Green vote low, but it is pushing Labour further away from the centre, and this will make them a one term government. They need NZ First to bring the centre vote across, but NZ First will be gone at the next election if they don’t stick to their election promises.

    Labour got in by the skin of their teeth, and should have realised that they need to reach across to the voters who didn’t vote for them but might be able to be persuaded that Labour might be good for the country. So what does Jacinda do as her first action as PM? Ridiculous virtue signalling over the Manus Island illegal immigrants, upsetting both NZers and the Aussies pointlessly in the process.

    Offering residence and millions of NZ tax payer dollars to migrants who paid people smugglers big money to transport them to Australia (while going past plenty of safe countries)- migrants who have already had millions spent on them by the Aussies- that is electoral suicide. Doing this when NZ is in the grip of a housing crisis and we have social problems that mean that we have one of the worst suicide rates in the world- reckless stupidity. And not a word from Winston during this debacle.

    The left needs to understand that people didn’t vote in a change of government to throw NZ tax money at the rest of the world, and if the left persist in doing things they were not elected to do and were not on their manifesto, they will be lucky to last this term. They were elected to fix the major problems we have here and action their manifesto, and that includes immigration which is not even on their 100 day list in spite of being the reason housing and infrastructure is such a mess.

    And this may be the last chance of those on the left to change the road we are on and save the old NZ which was by and large a caring western democracy, because each year goes by we are giving residence to huge numbers of people who are not from the west, don’t believe in giving handouts people who don’t work, and who are overwhelmingly National voters.

    And don’t call me racist, the polls done of the new NZers voting habits have shown conclusively that they are National voters. By the time the next election rolls around the demographics will be slightly worse for the left as more migrants get residence and old NZers die. If mass immigration into NZ isn’t halted, eventually it is likely that the new NZers will hold the balance of power and they may demand the immigration floodgates are completely opened to Asia and then it is game over, NZ is a majority Asian country and all bets are off as to what the country may be like, it will be uncharted territory. It is time rules around eligibility to vote are brought into line with Australia and the rest of the world, you should need to be a citizen to vote in NZ.

    • …and if the left persist in doing things they were not elected to do and were not on their manifesto

      VC, can you provide some concrete examples of Labour “doing things they were not elected to do and were not on their manifesto”? Because I’m at a loss to think of any.

      Also, when you refer to “the left persist in doing things they were not elected to do” – which party in the coalition are you referring to? There are three.

      • Nitrium Nitrium says:

        I don’t if it’s true, but according to Mike Hosking abolishing the “Three Strikes Rule” wrt prisons wasn’t on their manifesto. Also you can see him giving the Government the middle finger. Pure class.

      • Nitrium Nitrium says:

        In addition to the “Three Strikes Rule” I already posted that got Mike’s knickers in a twist (but I happen to think is good policy), I, like VERYCONCERNED also don’t remember Labour campaigning (or seeing in their manifesto) asylum for the Manus Island illegal immigrants. Frank, can you cite where this was indeed a key part (and it is apparently key, because Jacinda seems to have given it a lot of her attention since the election) of Labour’s campaign/manifesto?

        • Anker says:

          Increasing the refugee quota was nitrium. They didn’t need to specify where the refugees would come from, that is neither here nor there

          • Nitrium Nitrium says:

            It is though, because Labour could reach the new quota in literal seconds with a call to the UN. Why is she so focused on these particular refugees? It really does seem to stem from some sort of (personal?) “agenda” for lack of a better word.

        • Geoff says:

          Manus Island while not a manifesto issue is very much a good conscience issue for Jacinda and she campaigned on doing the right thing.

          I say good on her. I wish the rest of our parliament were as caring and idealistic.

    • Tom Gardner says:

      “So what does Jacinda do as her first action as PM? Ridiculous virtue signalling over the Manus Island illegal immigrants, upsetting both NZers and the Aussies pointlessly in the process.”

      Quite so. Look to your own, Jacinda; we are the ones who voted for you.

    • Louis says:

      I make no apology for saying I dont like what you say Veryconcerned which I think is a load of paranoia rot.

    • savenz says:

      While I’m not against refugees coming to NZ , I think that lefties are in denial about NZ’s massive immigration the third highest in the world in a country that used to have a carefully balanced welfare system and so called high wages.

      NZ did used to be a caring democracy but now I think many locals are tired of always giving and many just take.

      For what every reason National wanted to import people in from countries that had high corruption and were not democratic. That is National’s model place that NZ will become, where everyone scrounges around competing against each other, get rid of all regulation, privatise public services and just have the ‘right’ corporations and individuals running everything to a business model, have beggars in the streets, open pollution everywhere because someone at the top can make a dollar from that.

      I’m not blaming the people coming, why wouldn’t you when our government is giving free citizenship, health care, benefits, schooling, clean non polluted lifestyle, even free water to be piped away and bottled for personal profit. What a generous country! Why wouldn’t they vote for more of that!

      Anyone who disagrees with that is apparently racist. But a few years ago under Helen Clark it was normal immigration policy to have a language test, much more onerous conditions to settle here. Now National seem to have pulled the wool over the lefties eyes too, and the unions now represent and support policy for the low paid workers who are not Kiwi born but bought in to lower wages and conditions.

      Again before neoliberalism, that was frowned on by unions who considered it scab labour and wrong to bring in labour to lower workers bargaining power.

    • J S Bark J S Bark says:

      The good news is that you can easily spot the people you don’t like coz they have some easily identified characteristics. Single fold eyelids, swarthy complexions and most damning of all, vile accents that just speak foreign-ness. And I bet they’re all communists to boot…

      And yes I am being sarcarstic.

      Your post is a very typical right wing scatter gun approach, full of wild and racist accusations and not a skerrick of evidence to support them.

      Maybe you could try broadening your reading and thought processes…

    • Andrea says:

      VERYCONCERNED: do you really think the National Party is centrist? Really?

      The sort of changes this country needs urgently cannot be done in the ‘centre’. That’s where you teeter-totter on a pivot point and do nothing upsetting. Unstable and scary place to be. One little bump and it’s all about trying to stay’balanced’ before you splat!.

      If that was the proper place to be – why are we wiping sludge from our faces and being grateful that nine years of fake balancing has come to its overdue end?

      Off the mouse wheel of ‘confirmity and don’t rock the seesaw’ – and back into life. However it comes – it HAS to be better than standing on the sidelines while the jackboots clonk by.

      (No need to squeak ‘Godwin’s!’ – lots of dictatorial countries outfit the enforcers with jackboots. We were starting to head that way.)

    • Marc says:

      Hey, check the top of this blog, you must have clicked the wrong hyperlink, this is NOT Kiwiblog!

    • Michelle says:

      very concerned I’m very concerned too cause me think too many new foreigners/immigrants voted for the gnats to say thank you for letting me into your country

  6. Sam Sam says:

    Legalise cannabis and I mean reallocate the some $800mln cannabis prohibition money into something useful like (Up To you what useful is) and I swear Maari Paati and top are finished. Ended. Over for them. And increase the P8 maritime patrol replacement from 4 to 6. Then national will learn what it is to lose.

  7. Nitrium Nitrium says:

    I think they are doing alright myself. It’s such early days, I don’t know why people expect so much progress in so little time. They still have literal years to get shit done. And even if they end up doing next to nothing, Jacinda is wonderfully articulate and charismatic, which is a so fucking refreshing after 8 years of The John Key and a year of English Bot (it felt so much longer than that), that somehow will surely make up for it.

  8. savenz says:

    It’s a bad look about TPPA, at least Labour sorta seem to be trying to listen but then they are so welded to neoliberalism they can’t think their ideology could be wrong.

    Not sure why wheeling out 3 local businesses that TPPA may help (while ignoring many that it will make worse aka local IT). NZ farms will soon be owned offshore soon, so giving them tiny bit more dairy access is not doing anything to our local economy.

    I think just in the north shore, Auckland alone someone has amassed 54million in property.

    Wonder why Aucklander’s go meh when the left blame the boomers and god knows who else for the housing crisis who were told to buy a rental to pay for their retirement. Some people have 54 million in property value and growing but their not the problem, apparently. Some greedy teacher with a second property is.

    We have one main political party pretending there is no housing crisis, and the other main political party going out of their way to pander to recent arrivals who have been on a shopping spree with NZ land, assets and citizenship.

    A golden moment of what’s going on is where the Hawkes Bay council are telling off the locals for using too much water, and then it turns out 2 cruise ships filled up in the middle of the water crisis and took it over the edge.

    I don’t watch MSM anymore but I got the impression Labour has been active in taking more refugees, TPPA, appearing in vogue and at international events and the ‘healthy’ homes (what homes should be the question). Since none of those are going to make many people’s lives better in this country it is no surprise their numbers are down. All might be good ideas but as being a priority it’s a bit like ‘let them eat cake’.

    Jacinda’s been active on the world stage but Labour’s golden goose isn’t looking quite so girl next door when concentrating on making NZ look good for investors and tourists. Many of the business in those sectors rely on cheap immigrants and expect the taxpayers and ratepayers to pick up their tab so they can make more profit.

  9. Louis says:

    Its Colmar Brunton for Christs sakes. I wouldnt be freaked out. Top and Maori party are irrelevant. Labour went up 2.1% compared with National 1.4% despite the National party and the media being obstructive against the new government. Act didn’t even seem to feature and 51% is a majority 46% is not. PM Jacinda 37% Winston 5% Sore loser Bill 28% and 51% think the country is headed in the right direction only 26% do not. 23% dont knows.

  10. Pete says:

    “Large structural problems confronting us?”

    The masses don’t care about those as realities of the type of society we have created.
    They only care on a day to day basis when something directly concerns them. And some of those they tolerate when Bill, or Steven or Judith say something like ‘reds under the bed,’ or ‘tax increases.’ The fear factor.

    Needing more taxes to pay for better health and mental health services, for more police and prisons doesn’t cut it.

    In Auckland they can sit on clogged roads thinking how bad everything is, relish the polls and wait for the election so they can vote once again for the chief architects of our sorry state.

    LET ME BE FRANK (above) is more positive than me. “They could just on with doing what they can to repair the country and let the voters decide how they have performed at the next election.”

    This government could repair the country, find the cure for cancer and make certain of world peace and the masses would vote for National. And those like MILES would call ikt a ‘shambles’. It’s more than just a blue rump being unshakeable that E-CLECTIC quotes.

  11. Kat says:

    Its fairly obvious that until such time the coalition “owns” the MSM and the lion-share of positive media narrative Labour will lag behind. On a positive not at least Labour is going up, not down and they are in govt.

    A word to National supporters, the next real poll is the next general election. If thinking that this coalition is going to implode with an early election then dream on if it helps with the grief.

    • Cag says:

      Came back from Auz a week ago and what was the first thing we saw on One News? (sadly brought back an elderly rellie who’s deaf so have to watch ms news, ugh) – “Cracks in the coalition” -re the work for the dole … at minimum wage. Not surprised that National’s still got the bigger number. (have also been really happy with what’s been coming out – especially after being engulfed by Australian politics for 2 week!).

  12. Castro says:

    Roughly 45,000 residency visas are being granted to foreigners every year. There will be another 150,000 plus foreign voters at the next election. Does not bode well for Labour, or No Zealand.

  13. David Stone says:

    The new government is trying to deliver it’s promices to the have nots while pandering to the haves so as not to alienate anyone. They will have to decide who they are running the country for. You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs. Support from the right wing of the electorate is unavailable to them and they should abandon trying to appease it.And make sure of keeping faith with their natural constituents.
    Trying to run with the fox and hunt with the hounds will loose them support from both.
    D J S

    • Kat says:

      What if the reality is NZ electorate is evenly divided down the middle and the coalition just represents the approximate opposite numbers to National. My guess is the coalition is going to have to break new ground and make some friends on the right, just enough to keep a single party like National in opposition for a long time.

  14. Miles says:

    As a new govt, Labour should have received a huge bounce, yet there is barely a whisker of a move. Just proves that MMP is a Mickey Mouse system, when a party with only seven percent support gets to choose the govt (adding insult to injury by choosing the losers).

    Whatever the legalities, natural justice was denied, and so was the majority voice, for the first time ever in our politics. National must be feeling very vindicated by this poll. If NZ First is wiped out at the next election, it will be a National govt, and it looks as though NZ First will be wiped out. Justice will win out in the end, and karma.

    • Kat says:

      So if NZ First, as you say “get wiped out” then who are Nationals coalition partners to make them the govt again?

      • Sonja says:

        They won’t need any partners, as their voter support will just grow from here. The Greens could possibly be gone from Parliament as well. And the start of this government has been shambolic, Ardern is competely out of her depth despite the easy ride she gets from the MSM, Joe Public can see that. She is all about virtue signalling and soundbites, and her Ministers look just as inept. Go National, three years or less, because the CoL are on notice!

        • Sam Sam says:

          The only ones surprised about the 2017 election results are those who weakened there minds by watching polls. Increasingly you and all other conservatives are out of touch with what’s really going on. I kind of pity you in away.

    • bert says:

      Thanks Miles, I just wasted 20 seconds of my life on your post I’ll never get back. Natural justice, say that to the Piker River families and Key’s promise to them.

  15. CLEANGREEN says:

    National own the whole media circus now, and are still singing National praises.

    Labour must now take over RNZ and turn iit into a public affairs service channel!!!!!!!

    Not what National have done to it as another trumpet for them.

    Jacinda; – wake up and take Radio NZ back as your voice not National Party broadcasting service please.

    ‘Lets do this’

  16. Marc says:

    NO surprises here, Labour do not have a solid support base, nothing has changed, add all the workers’ union and student union members together, add the low paid non union members, some of the beneficiaries, and the well meaning, more sharing middle class (part of the whole middle class), and you will never get a majority.

    National have most home and other property owners secured as supporters, especially since the housing price bubble has not burst, and they have the business operators, the contractors and so forth, certainly the farmers, back them.

    That is why I warned those wanting to rush into government.

    Once the shit starts hitting the fan, the MSM and opposition narrative will be repeated like a mantra, it is ALL Labour’s fault.

    The Greens will slowly stabilise around eight percent, perhaps nine to ten, NZ First is always a bit lower after the election, whether in or outside of government, and the rest are not worth mentioning, for now.

    In order to turn the tide, smart talk and policies do not suffice, we do only get a fraction of such anyway. Labour needs to return to mobilising, organising and building up a true MOVEMENT, to solidify a support and voter base, which simply does not exist now.

    Only then can they hope to get voted in again next time.

    39 percent is good going for the few weeks they have had in government, not easy ones. The next year is crucial to push for change, real change, and to push through many policies, and to send clear messages out to the population.

    Late next year, that is when we can make the first useful assessment of where the political journey will go, for Labour, Greens and NZ First, and this government, nobody cares much about polls a week or two out from Christmas.

  17. Louis says:

    “That majority has grown. The average of the three post-government-formation polls has given National 42.4%, 11% behind the three-way government’s total of 53.4%: Labour 39.3%, Greens 8.6% and New Zealand First 5.5%. A Labour-Green-only combination has a clear 5.5% lead over National.”

    “The latest averages represent roughly a 2% swap from National to the government since the election.”

    Poll: Voters broadly say yes to new government

  18. XRAY says:

    FFS, joining the shills on the right with all the doom and gloom is becoming boring.

    Its been a matter of WEEKS since the new government came in and for some reason, some on the left think Rome can be built in a day. Newsflash, it can’t.

    The damage done by National is deep with a lot subtle and hidden and it will take time to get their heads around it let alone turn things around. Today I read a West Auckland bus service provider want out after contract problems. That framework was set up by the idiot Joyce and by the looks of it, it needs to be scrapped and a new model implemented.

    I accept they did not expect to get into power but for Gods sake, give them a chance.

    3 years is a long time and up until September this year, National was sleepwalking to victory, remember?

    The glass is not always, always half empty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  19. Mike the Lefty says:

    But the good news is that Jacinda Adern is continuing to earn praise for her leadership.
    I was working for the Special Olympics last week and on the opening day we were transporting the athletes from the Parliament forecourt to the opening ceremony in Porirua.
    Who should come down to talk to the athletes but Jacinda herself and also Grant Robertson. You should have seen the reaction. They were totally stoked and Jacinda received more than her fair share of hugs that morning. Apparently Jacinda noticed the groups and quite spontaneously decided to spare a few minutes and come down to meet them. What a nice gesture.
    Also I was talking about this with a workmate who has no time for Labour at all and even he admitted he was impressed with how Jacinda connects with people and how she has brightened up NZ politics.
    There we go. It is not all bad news.

  20. Andrewo says:

    You’re 100% correct Martyn

    Normally new governments get a post-election bump in the polls because they’re fresh, shiny and new.

    But not this one.

    There are a couple of reasons I can think of for this:

    Firstly, judging by their behaviours so far, it looks as if Labour was as surprised as the rest of us that they got into government and are now under pressure to deliver on previous policy statements which vary between ‘aspirational’ and complete fantasy.

    Secondly Winston is a traitor to his own voter base. My understanding is that most are to the right of National and voted for NZF to stiffen up National’s fairly ‘wet’ approach to government. Instead he’s jumped in bed with the Left either because he got more baubles that way or because of a bizarre sense of utu against some individuals within National. Either way his polling is now in the toilet and it may result in the final demise of NZF.

  21. Marc says:

    Perhaps it is this, what should freak out Labour, and Jacinda, more so than the polls:


    Jacinda appears to consider China less a threat, than Australians do.


    Maybe in some ways, but with a state that does not trust its own people, and runs a country like George Orwell described in one of his books, we do nevertheless have some reason to be concerned.

  22. kim dandy says:

    Thanks @ Xray – my thoughts exactly.
    Another power at play in this poll is the right-wing owned MSM, who are STILL busy shoveling National into our face, while dissing the new coalition.
    Bring in new public broadcast rules quick smart I say!