One of the things I’ve tried to work on over the last decade is getting Labour+Green Party over 51% without the need of including Winston and NZ First so that a genuinely left wing Government could actually implement the kind of truely progressive policy we desperately need.
It’s a dream that never happened but I still included it as an outside possibility enemy analysis of this years election because there was still a mathematic chance of it happening.
The most recent poll by TV3 suggests that mathematical outside chance is slowly becoming an actual possibility.
Here’s how we could get a Labour-Green-Maori/MANA Government.
The rise of Jacinda has highlighted how very inflated the NZ First and Green support was because Labour had been so weak. The moment Labour had a credible leader, former Labour voters who had migrated to NZ First and the Greens have flooded home back to Jacinda.
I just don’t see that changing so Greens at 6-8%, NZ First at 6-8% and Labour at 40+ are real outcomes.
At those numbers Greens + Labour would be very close at making the majority without NZ First – close, but not close enough – however, Labour + Greens could get a majority if they included Mana and the Maori Party.
With Kelvin Davis on the list, Hone is making a real stand to win back Te Tai Tokerau, if he does that alongside a radical philosophical core change within the Maori Party that could see Flavell lose and Howie Tamati win and bring in Marama Fox, that could be the 3 extra votes that pushes Greens and Labour over the 51%.
In such a case, the smart money would be for Labour to include Greens, NZ First, MANA and the Maori Party into the Government as a Grand Coalition to stand against National and ACT.
If Labour had room to the right and the left politically, they could rule in power for a very long time.
Probably still to early to judge yet Martyn,
The polls are bouncing around far to wildly now, it would be clearer after the next mid month poll results to be sure where we are going.
I heard on the minor party debate last night Hone was attacking labour on many fronts and we believe labour are now far better under Jacinda now.
I agree with this statement you said as a perfect way ton finally defeat national;
“In such a case, the smart money would be for Labour to include Greens, NZ First, MANA and the Maori Party into the Government as a Grand Coalition to stand against National and ACT.”
I like Winston’s new policy of having all government buildings use only NZ woolen Carpets, to firstly provide real heat insulation rather than the dead “nylon” carpeting.
And secondly Winston claimed that wool carpets also will boost sheep farming and provide new jobs for all the closed down carpet mill wrkers and companies!
These are simply more progressive “environmental policies” than anything we saw from Greens so far.
The Green’s do need to accept NZ First as a better fit for “environmental awareness” than some other parties.
Yes there should be a new agreement to have all opposition Parties come to some “grand coalition.”
More minds are better than one!!!!
Over the last 30 year, I have never received a call from any pollster. I live in West Auckland.Having studied statistics at uni level, I am not sure if this art is very accurate if it does not collect proportionate date from all voters both in age, sex, geographical areas and perhaps professions.??
In Utopia it might work. In NZ a government as described above would last one term only. The next lot would reverse all that was achieved. It would be better to have Winston on side!
Yes – a broad coalition that implements incremental change over a longer time period is more likely to result in permanent progressive change that has popular support and is difficult to undo. The aim must be to make National Party governments a fairly rare phenomenon. Otherwise we are permanently tidying up after lengthy periods of their economic, social and environmental vandalism.
Well said AB, Hit the nail there.
There must be a historic number of changes, National have made during their ‘vandalism’ of our political system.
Is anyone keeping score?
Won’t it be awesome if TOP splits the vote and helps the Natzi Party scrape in for a fourth term?
Wouldn’t it be awesome if all the parties based their policies on rigorous examination of evidence like TOP, instead of on bribing the blocks of voters they think are most likely to vote for them in large numbers? I don’t agree with all their policies, but it’s clear to me that having TOP in parliament would weaken the NatACTS, and give them the the position and the resources to hold a Labour-Greens government accountable.
re “One of the things I’ve tried to work on over the last decade is getting Labour+Green Party over 51% without the need of including Winston and NZ First so that a genuinely left wing Government could actually implement the kind of truely progressive policy we desperately need…
…maybe this is why it hasn’t happened
….people should make up their own minds
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/policies
1000% RB.
NZF has good policies for sure it is sad that the MSM does not highlight them but perhaps National don’t want to allow this?
Those on power will never give it up. You can gain semi sovereignty so long as it doesn’t interfere with private capital. So those in power can just send the police back in and shut the game down.
I’m worried. Are you worried?
If we all stand together there are limits to what they can do. Chin up Metiria.
Agree Sam there are always personal rights although like Paula many in the Elite don’t believe inpersonal rights below there own station. They would like to get rid of that law.
The fact is that our society has bought into the misguided belief lower taxes means a greater share for all. That is just plain rubbish. The decline in equality has grown at a rapid rate since neo-liberal idiots like Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson ruled the roost.
Kim Hill of Radio NZ fame conducted an interview with Professor Ian Shirley and it was a cracker…now here was a person who clearly articulated the national decline into the collapse of social humanist policy and the ‘rise and rise’ of blame the individual politics of today. It’s a long interview but it leads to enlightenment, well enlightenment for those who actually wish for enlightenment.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/201857067/ian-shirley-public-policy-pioneer
It’s time for a change, time for a realistic attack on poverty. So the question is how best to attack the dynamic question of poverty? The history of our decline is well recorded and many have described the decline better than I. Metiria made it a public issue and she paid the price and felt the full backlash. She is, without doubt, a REAL hero. Now you can continue the battle against the bias that exists deep within our society.
A Labour / Green / Mana / Maori Party is the way forward.
Good second leaders debate tonight where Jacinda wiped the floor with Bill English.
Jacinda is more inspiring than the first debate and very crisp with her responses even when Paddy asked during the “snap question time” to both if they would work with Winston if he is the kingmaker and she said yes and so did Bill.
She was the clear winner so we are about to change the government in 19 days folks.
Adern was not clear on the cannabis issue however…confused and has done a backdown…
It is an absolute disgrace ( crime against humanity )that this government and doctors ( in the pocket of BIG PHARMA) are feeding the most elderly and those New Zealanders in pain the killer drug Fentanyl…and yet keeping cannabis illegal …and medicinal cannabis financially out of reach and difficult to get for those most vulnerable
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/83570824/princes-death-drug-prescribed-to-new-zealands-elderly
“The drug that killed popstar Prince is being prescribed to New Zealand’s elderly in record numbers, prompting a warning from the Government health watchdog.
The spike in prescriptions of fentanyl – a synthetic opioid 50 times more potent than heroin – is being described as “opioid rain” by alarmed medical professionals.
An investigation has found rates of prescribing have doubled in rest homes in four years, while doctors are dishing out strong opioids to already frail over-80s around 10 times more often than to those under 65. Prescription rates varied wildly between regions…
…cannabis has been used as a medicinal herb by the peoples of the world for centuries ( at least 500 BC if you read Herodotus)
https://www.livescience.com/48337-marijuana-history-how-cannabis-travelled-world.html
“From the sites where prehistoric hunters and gatherers lived, to ancient China and Viking ships, cannabis has been used across the world for ages…
“For the most part, it was widely used for medicine and spiritual purposes,” during pre-modern times, said Warf, a professor of geography at the University of Kansas in Lawrence. For example, the Vikings and medieval Germans used cannabis for relieving pain during childbirth and for toothaches, he said.
“The idea that this is an evil drug is a very recent construction,” and the fact that it is illegal is a “historical anomaly,” Warf said. Marijuana has been legal in many regions of the world for most of its history…
(The truth is that the use of a traditional natural herb by the people is being used by the State as a form of illegitimate control to persecute and criminalise people…it is used as a pretext)
VOTE NZF is you want a referendum to change the cannabis laws
“Adern was not clear on the cannabis issue however…confused and has done a backdown…”
Not true. She has said a clear yes to medical cannabis, but that she isn’t supporting recreational legalization. Whereas Winston’s ‘hold a referendum’ answer shows he’s still confused on the issue and either doesn’t know, or isn’t willing to tell us, what he really supports.
I suspect if the Greens put forward a private members bill the majority of Labour MPs would quietly support it as a conscience vote. The last 9 years shows up that we’ve clearly got a better chance of some movement on drug law reform under a Labour-Greens government than under another 3 years of NatACT government.
‘NZ First are on their own calling for a referendum on decriminalising cannabis ‘
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/83173728/NZ-First-are-on-their-own-calling-for-a-referendum-on-decriminalising-cannabis
‘Why NZ First is the only route to legalising Cannabis and why we will need to start a citizens initiated referendum to get real change’
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/05/07/why-nz-first-is-the-only-route-to-legalising-cannabis-and-why-we-will-need-to-start-a-citizens-initiated-referendum-to-get-real-change/
Actually Ross Bell Executive Head of the Drug Foundation isnt that impressed with the Labour Party on drug policy. He thinks they could do a lot more….listen to the end of this interview
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/201857655/drug-foundation-concerns-about-testing
Oh FFS, redbuzzard.a vote for winston is a vote for god only knows what. We could be stuck with another three years of bill the double dipper and Steven Joyce the lying prick. No thank you.
Be open to Winston or he will go with National.
Yes that sows National are deliberately killing the aged so they are embarking on genocide and possibly to kill off the Winston voters as they are mostly Winston’s supporters.
So also if they die their Government is free from not paying any super to as many elderly.
National think super is wasted on them (they think callously.)
A Labour-NZFirst-Green-Maori Party coalition? I can’t see it. Winston doesn’t play well with others and he definitely doesn’t like to share. I think he’d rather sit on the cross benches than sit with the Greens and the Maori Party. He’s just that kind of petulant little boy.
Winston Peters has made a career out of pandering to white Pakeha xenophobia and racism. To feed his conservative racist Pakeha base Peters has got away with outrageous attacks on Asian and Maori that no European politician could have got away with.
Yes Winston Peters would rather sit on the cross benches, than sit with the Greens and the Maori Party. But that is not the full depth of his hatred of the Left. Mark my words, Winston would rather form a coalition with the National Party and ACT to prop up this Right Wing political bloc even it they less votes than the Left Labour Green bloc.
Because only National and ACT will agree to Winston’s divisive binding referendum to get rid of the Maori Seats.
Peters referendum on removing the Maori seats will feed into the racism and Xenophobia of his core political base.
In the last night leaders debate Jacinda Ardern said she would not have done the Seabed and Foreshore legislation to take away Maori legal right to take court action over the exploitation of the sea bed and foreshore.
Yet, in practice Labour is still warring against the Maori Party, which sprung from the rift created between Maori and the Labour Party resulting from the Seabed and Foreshore dispute.
If Labour want to go some way to heal the rift between Maoridom and the Labour Party, then Jacinda Ardern needs to put a stop Labour’s sectarian war to expel all independent Maori voices from Parliament.
If Jacinda Ardern was sincere in her words, then Jacinda Ardern would stop Labour’s war against the Maori Party and bring the Maori Party back into the Left camp with Labour and the Green Party.
To end this war, Ardern needs to put all her Maori electorate MPs back on the Labour list. And ask Labour supporters in the Maori electorates to vote tactically to get a Labour led government. There is still time.
The choice before Jacinda Ardern is stark, does Jacinda Ardern want to be leader of the opposition or leader of the country.
We will see which way she chooses.
If Ardern chooses not to work with the Maori Party. And instead succeeds in Labour’s state aim to to expel the Maori Party from Parliament. And then falls short by the amount of seats needed that the Maori Party could have brought to a Labour Green Party coalition.
Then on losing the election to a National New Zealand First coalition, Ardern should resign in shame, it would be the decent thing to do.
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