Major boil over in Māori Politics last night with Māori TVs fascinating new poll of Te Tai Hauāuru which has turned the possible core of the Māori Party on its head.
The Māori Party’s Howie Tamati has over taken Labour’s Adrian Rurawhe by a far larger margin than anyone thought possible, however Te Ururoa Flavell is in trouble with a very strong challenge by Tamati Coffey.
Meanwhile Marama Fox trails in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and their Party vote isn’t getting above 2%.
There are 4 outcomes here and the most possible of those outcomes creates a vast new change inside the Maori Party.
Outcome 1: Flavell wins Waiariki, Howie Tamati wins Te Tai Hauāuru, pushes Marama Fox off the list.
Outcome 2: Flavell wins Waiariki, Howie Tamati loses Te Tai Hauāuru, Marama Fox comes in off the list.
Outcome 3: Flavell loses Waiariki, Howie Tamati loses Te Tai Hauāuru, Marama Fox doesn’t come in off the Party list.
Outcome 4: Flavell loses Waiariki, Howie Tamati wins Te Tai Hauāuru, Marama Fox comes in off the Party list.
I think Outcome 4 is the most possible here.
If Flavell is removed, then the biggest stumbling block of Maori Party working with Labour would be replaced.
Marama Fox wants to work with Labour, it has always been Flavell who has forced the Maori Party into the arms of the National Party, if Flavell loses to Tamati Coffey and Howie Tamati wins in Te Tai Hauāuru, then you will have a Maori Party with Marama Fox and Howie Tamati.
That Maori Party could most certainly work with Jacinda rather than Bill.
This earthquake could realign the Maori Party political philosophy in a significant way that suddenly makes a Labour-Green-Maori Party Government a genuine possibility.
This could undermine Winston’s power of Kingmaker more than any other move in the rubric cube our political landscape is becoming.