NEW POLL: One News Colmar Brunton Poll has Labour cannibalise Greens beneath threshold

By   /   August 17, 2017  /   71 Comments

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The most concerning part of the volatility of the Polls has been how utterly manipulated they are by the mainstream media.

The most concerning part of the volatility of the Polls has been how utterly manipulated they are by the mainstream media.

Tonights One News Colmar Brunton Poll has Labour cannibalise Greens beneath threshold.

National down 3 to 44%

Labour up 13 to 37%

NZ First down 1 to 10%

Greens down 11 to 4.3%

Maori Party up 1 to 2%

TOP 2% 

These titanic movements are extreme and driven by the mainstream media coverage and narrative structures, which seems terribly bovine of us all.

We can all agree that the polls are biased, but a 11% drop or 13% surge are not margin of error stuff.

Cannibalising the Greens under the threshold is not how one wins an MMP election, but at this stage, Labour could seriously be looking for an old fashioned First Past the Post  majority Government if Jacinda mania keeps building.

The most interesting insight is that the don’t knows dropped 7% to 13%.

The Greens need to regroup  quick smart and double down on promoting the $180 a week lift in benefits, a Green Card (free public transport travel for students and beneficiaries), climate change reform, legalised cannabis reform and a serious renters rights agenda because the Greens right now need to play to their youth issues to bring them out on election day.

Jacinda’s popularity is stripping bare the truth that the Green vote was inflated by dissatisfied Labour voters. They are going home so the Greens need to go policy wise where Labour can’t.

It’s become a matter of survival.

The lift in the Maori Party vote will concern Labour, and makes the need to beat Tu Uroroa Flavell in Waiariki even more important than ever while defending Tamaki Makaurau.

In a surprise move, MANA should publicly announce they are pulling out of the none aggression pact with the Maori Party and call on MANA voters to back Labour in Waiariki and Tamaki Makurau in return for a deal in Te Tai Tokerau.

In an election that could be razor thin majority, these types of tactics are needed.

TOP are still in the hunt if there is a last minute National collapse and voters desert a sinking National ship. They will have been surprised to see no Green vote go to them. Gareth should have Kennedy Graham on the phone tonight, offer him the second spot position on the list and stand him in Epsom.

The truth however is that National are still holding a commanding 44% and despite the housing crises, mental health meltdown, homelessness explosion, rehashed meaningless policy, counter productive bullshit and draconian welfare state, 44% of NZers still love the National Party.

That is the most deeply concerning truth in this poll.

Labour could hit 40% and could even pull off a majority win if Jacinda wows the nation in the televised debates.

Talking of which…

 

 

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71 Comments

  1. CLEANGREEN says:

    Yes so did some leave NZ First and return to Labour also?
    Looks like that Martyn.

    The greens are in deep trouble now, as Labour did loose heavily to Green Party earlier to scare Andrew Little to step aside, so Labour will not be so friendly to any gift to save Greens now since they were burnt once already.

    Inn looks very likely to be a labour/NZ First alliance now.

    Or it will be a National cup of tea with James Shaw as he seeks tor try to get national to offer Greens a seat somewhere?

    • Win says:

      The TVNZ poll is a load of bullocks. They are hardly honest about much of their reporting. So why should we believe a poll they put out? If we think NZ news media are inscrutable, then we need to think again. And if we watch and believe mainstream media then more fool us.

      The Greens were whipped when they strayed from their focus on environmental issues and started supporting the poor and disposed. If they want their numbers back they need to focus on Green issues. Not because the issues of the poor don’t require extreme focus, but because that extreme focus is not supported by the powerful. The string pullers. Those who decide who will gain power in our country. And those decision makers are definitely not the NZ voters.

      Anyone wonder how much info the spy agencies had on Metiria when she was on a benefit? Brown, left leaning, intelligent and resourceful. Surely she would have been a target?

      • Louis says:

        Agree completely with the following “The TVNZ poll is a load of bullocks. They are hardly honest about much of their reporting. So why should we believe a poll they put out? If we think NZ news media are inscrutable, then we need to think again. And if we watch and believe mainstream media then more fool us.”

      • Cemetery Jones says:

        The poll is not conducted or analysed by TVNZ. All field work, analysis, and reporting comes to them from Colmar-Brunton, whose reputation would be in tatters if they tried anything like that. TVNZ just read out the results on their bulletins and if there are any further insights in the report which show newsworthy underlying trends, then this stuff gets folded into other stories. That’s pretty much how the polling works for all the major news organizations. And given that polling for TVNZ is probably one of Colmar Brunton’s smallest and least lucrative market research accounts, they would stand to lose millions in business if they were caught out fiddling results.

        I understand the result may be frustrating, but keep your head on your shoulders, my dude. Like I think your analysis of what has gone wrong for the Green party is spot on, except to add that I think it’s a case of a slightly devious strategy blowing up in their face. They wanted to try and crush Labour from the left flank while they were weak, and took a major gamble which backfired horrifically.

      • Nicke says:

        These polls are just knee-jerks to the events of the moment.

        The risk, as ever, is people trying to read entrails with only one or two polls to go on.

        “Smart money” people can run after what appears to be trends.

        15% becomes 4%, becomes maybe 8% or 9%.

        It is hard to imagine people were really deciding to re-allocate their votes so lightly. They wete just voting on the latest news report. It takes a bit more to fix a vote.

        Some wanted to say “welcome” to Jacinda, others were upset Metiria had resigned. Some were reacting to the Green’s disarray.

        We need a more mature attitude to polling information and a better understanding of how and why people respond as they do, and maybe a whole lot more data, or a whole lot less.

        • HC says:

          Dare I say it, we are poorly served by our pollsters, they just savour the moment, bad or good for whatever party, they do not care, they are simply gathering info on what the sordid MSM spread to the fowls, who gobble it up like truthful fodder, and then reflect the incessant brain washing, nothing more or less.

          We had days of bashing of the Greens, of Metiria Turei being hung and dried, and the media played a massive role in this, they created the momentum for the poll result, and then they sell it as if it is good and golden truth.

          As for the Greens, they have been the very basic ‘green’ people in this foresaken place, they dared not even ban fully plastic bags, afraid of consumerists and their willing merchant contributors, to sell such crap.

          They only wanted to achieve swimming or wadable rivers, for goodness sake, they hardly went full steam, so scared of consumerist, urban voters, who just want the feel good ‘green’ event.

          So now they got ‘punished’, by whom? The SUV driving professional feel good urbanites that live in Mt Eden, Remuera, and Epsom? Or were they rather destroyed by the media momentum, who wants nothing more than keep the current lot in government?

          Business wants business, and green business is not good enough to them, they want to carry on as usual, and only pick up the ‘green label’, to appear they care, that is what is behind this, the media is as usual subservient and does all to create the poll results that they and their funders want.

          So go out, and party vote Greens, no matter how poor their policy, it pays to keep them alive and get them over five percent, if possible over ten percent, they are the very basic, naked fig leaf ‘green’ party we have, all else is a complete betrayal to anything that concerns us who care about the planet, the future and our offspring.

    • Louis says:

      Nah none of that and I bet the Greens are over the threshold on election night too. Kelvin said this morning if they get to form a govt and the Greens are there, they will still get the first phone call and I believe that they will.

      • Michelle says:

        Don’t they poll 60% land lines & 40% online and who is more likely to have a landline nowadays and who are less likely to have access to the online polling. These are some of the groups parties need to target. They need to get out on the streets and knock on the doors look people in the eye talk to them ask them there concerns. No ones knocked on my door yet and I live in a middle class type neighborhood. But God help any tory that knocks on my door I’m waiting for them I will tell them they forgot to put horns on Bills head (on their campaign posters)

        • Louis says:

          Lol horns on Bills head, love to be a fly on the wall to see their reaction!! As you have aptly pointed out, the polling methodology is indeed flawed. Labour and the Greens are doing that much needed footwork alright.

        • mary_a says:

          @ Michelle … like you I also live in a middle class suburb (thankfully not for long though … moving to a very tranquil part the south island very soon). The candidate here is Paula Bennett … whose smarmy face I see alongside that other Tory git English, on billboards everywhere, when I venture out! Real in your face stuff!

          No one has come door knocking yet. But should a Tory bluebottle dare set foot across the driveway boundary promoting the Bennett woman, they will feel the very sharp sting of my tongue! Should that not be enough to see them off the property, I have a pitchfork handy in the garage!

    • Me says:

      I didn’t even think of that possibility. What would be worse? A Labour/NZ First alliance or National /Green?

      I think either would have to be better than what we have now.

  2. Fred H says:

    That’s 44% of voters that vote and have chosen a party or haven’t thought beyond what MSM is telling them until closer to Sept 23rd, so NZ isn’t completely lost down some aspirational vortex

    • Jono says:

      But remember National always polls 5 points higher than the electiom result. So that puts them at 39%…

      • Louis says:

        yes agree Jono, bet its abit lower than 39% on the night hence the panicked shrill from National’s shill Mike Hoskings.

  3. patricia bremner says:

    Martyn, Colmar Brunton always favour National.

    This probably the bottom for the greens.

    The two seats which matter are Dunne’s and Flavell’s. No Nat support.

    I see there 250 000 young voters to enrol yet. That could be a surprise.

    Greens and Labour need to chase the ethnic vote more. Indian,Phillipino, etc.

    There is only 2/3 points in it. This is tight.

  4. Takere says:

    Just for the Record. Greens. I told you so in March/April! – Handed over the keys to the car to the kids? And they crashed the car! Good fuck’n job! Another plus is that theres no Act party!

  5. justanothervoter says:

    NZ gave 150,000 immigrants residence in the last few years. Over the last 10 years we have given 500,000 immigrants residence. Overwhelmingly those immigrants were Chinese and Indian. Chinese vote almost exclusively National, and the Indians have now moved to National en masse as National’s property and open border immigration policies work in their favour. We are one of the only western countries that allow people who have residency, but not citizenship, the vote. It is total madness and it will be the end of us as a nation.

    • Michal says:

      Absolutely, the Nats bring in the rich Asian voteand that is what most of the immigrants are.

      That wealthy tosser who gave the Nats money and has residency but will never live here should NEVER EVER GET A VOTE, THIS IS SO WRONG.

  6. Castro says:

    A very sizeable chunk of the 44% of “No Zealanders” who love AND VOTE FOR the Transnational Capital Party are in actual fact foreigners (permanent residents), Martyn.

  7. Antony Cotton says:

    Labour are better of with NZ First Greens are to Left and who wants them around cabinet table yes Labour Government but not with Greens the nasty people. Vote Labour.

    • Tony Stevens says:

      NZ First doesn’t want to change government. Winston Peters is nothing but a mercenary. Greens need to be in parliament is Jacinda is to be our next PM.

    • Michal says:

      How are they the nasty people, they are the only party that did not gang up on Hone Harawira, and he should be in paraliament, we need outspoken stroppy people who are genuinely working with the poor. Do tell me someone in Labour who is seriously working with the poor!

    • Louis says:

      That’s silly Antony, the Greens are not nasty people at all and they will be great in govt and Im a Lab supporter saying that too.

      • Michelle says:

        I agree with Louis we need a good mixture in our parliament but the polls process would favor the gnats if we look at how they poll.
        ( the process)
        I think the Greens lost a lot of there conservative pakeha vote in this recent poll. Too many of this group are kinder to the environment than they are to people and they are selfish and they believe everything our mainstream media say stupid old fools.

    • Doug says:

      Troll. Ignore.

  8. esoteric pineapples says:

    If the Greens didn’t make it back into Parliament, that would mean it is made up entirely of parties from the centre to far right. It would also mean that there was not one party that would put the environment first. New Zealand needs the Greens to be in Parliament.

  9. fatty says:

    I’ll be happy to waste my party vote on the Greens, just as I did last time with Mana.
    No regrets.
    A Labour + NZ First government does very little for me.

    • esoteric pineapples says:

      “Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” – United States President John Quincy Adams

    • J S Bark J S Bark says:

      Hey Fatty, that’s exactly what I did and what I will do.

      I don’t care if I live in a right wing paradise…

      …gotta vote LEFT!

    • bert says:

      And a National lead Government has done very little for thousands!

  10. Peter mckeefry says:

    Quite simply I never expected this. The greens have caused irreparable damage. I believe they will get over the line on election night probably just over 5%. But then the question remains will winston go into a government with the greens? Unlikely. I think we will see the greens claw back a little of their support but at the expense of Labour. NAtional support seems entrenched at these levels. Come Election Day winston will go with National I believe because he will not want anything to do with the greens.

  11. Kat says:

    People are coming home, home to Labour. Jacinda is the best thing since Norm Kirk. I am old enough to remember those halcyon days of the Ohu schemes, anti apartheid and anti nuclear protests. The Greens are just the Values party 40 years down the track. The Values party was necessary after Kirk died and Values philosophy morphed into Green after Douglas and Co put Labour on the rocks.

    Its gone full circle since those days and Jacinda Ardern has the making to be a four term Labour PM. She has the natural insights of a great leader. If I were of her generation I would be excited, I am old but I am already celebrating. If I am wrong I promise to drown in single malt.

    • patricia bremner says:

      I’m with you KAT. I see the swell in Waiariki for Tamati Coffey.

      I saw the way people react to Jacinda, including MPs at meetings.

      Her parliament closing speech is on facebook. It is bloody brilliant.

      • Louis says:

        Tamati Coffey is great

      • Michal says:

        Yes but her maiden speech was brilliant, and what has she actually done inbetween, and why did she work for the war criminal Blair.

        • Louis says:

          Wouldn’t hold working in the UK cabinet office against her and until Labour’s elected into office, she is untested, as was John key and others before becoming PMs. Until then its just assumptions.

    • RosieLee says:

      Spot on.

    • Michelle says:

      Yes Kat I was a teenager when he died (big Norman Kirk) and I will never forget that day we all cried and blue collar workers were given time of work to go home and watch the service which was televised.
      Oh! to have leaders like him he genuinely cared about all NZers.
      Unlike Sir john who said after being knighted ‘people can see a person heart when they are on TV’ if that is that case how could they see his when he didn’t and still doesn’t have one.

  12. esoteric pineapples says:

    One other thought – there’s a limit to how much more of the Green vote Labour could get given it is already at four percent. Which means Labour is going to have to find votes from other parties if it wants to get any closer to National.

  13. WILD KATIPO says:

    Wow !

    This build up to the election is getting to be ‘edge of your seat’ stuff ! So much rests on getting this despicable National govt out.

    When Andrew Little was still leader , I had decided to bolster the Labour base as they were lagging. The change of leadership to Jacinda Adern has altered that position in an incredibly positive way.

    So my party vote now goes to the Greens. I believe politics IS a war. And particularly this one for the public of NZ. We just cannot sustain anymore of the abuse from National. I am encouraging my 21 year old son and his 19 year old girlfriend to vote either Labour or Greens,… and both are heading down to vote…. for the Left.

    Hehehee… and I hardly had a say in it . 🙂

    We need to be getting to these young people to take this seriously because what govt we elect in now will affect them for a long , long time. And the way I see it , Labour and the Greens are two sides of the same Left coin with pros and cons on both sides.

    Yet they are mutually supportive.

    But like an army also ,… we need to reinforce the areas that need strengthening and provide no weak points. We still need the Greens to ram home the new Labour led government in September.

    And I reckon we are gonna do it!

  14. Francesca says:

    I’ll certainly be party voting Green.
    If inequality is the most important issue to voters(according to the pollsters)then the Green party has the most to offer

  15. Andrea says:

    “Cannibalising the Greens under the threshold”

    Pardon?????

    Polls are taken of people. You know, voters.

    If those who were polled said they preferred another party, not the Greens, for whatever reasons, that’s their choice.

    The MSM presents the material. People check in with their beliefs and prejudices and decide, for now, that the Greens perhaps need the frighteners put on them. Nemesis trotting after Hubris.

    Look – I’m pretty far left. And I object to pork barrel policies. $180 lift in benefits. Joke. Big fat unfunny joke. Why? Because everything else will ratchet up so the sorry amount is, as usual, far less than is needed for people to participate in mainstream living. Is that basic fact of Kiwi life, that the vultures will be waiting, known far and wide since public servants used to get their belated and small pay increases, completely forgotten? Fix it before anyone else dangles false hope of a chance to escape penury.

    Cannibalise? Ha! Be like eating meringue. Tough coat and vacant within.

  16. mosa says:

    The MSM has taken the opportunity to destroy any possibility of a Labour-Green government after the votes have been counted in what has been an orchestrated campaign against the party.

    All we can hope for now is Labour taking votes away from the National party , that is the only way the government will change and it is highly likely that we will have Jacinda- Winston combination on that basis.

    If anyone can it will be Ms Adern.

    Hardly a changed government that you and a lot of us here have been talking about Bomber.

    I am gutted that the Greens may struggle for relevance to be part of a progressive change with Greens at the heart of that government unless they can break through if the polls are to be believed and Jacinda invites them in…. but that could be problematic on the numbers.

    It is on a knife edge and i have been getting numerous pleading emails from James Shaw and the party asking for forgiveness and needing more money.

    It is bloody tragic.

  17. darth smith says:

    as labour voter i didn’t want to destroy the green party i was hoping for a labour green government but Jacinda is the best chance to make dam sure these arseholes in nact get sent packing finger crossed Greg removes dunne and Willie Jackson can oust the tory huggers the moari party

  18. mosa says:

    Relief in sight we hope as the curtain falls on the 51st parliament and the scourge of John Key, English and their colleagues for the last three years and their use of the legislature to pass bad law.

    Fingers crossed for an administration change.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1708/S00346/a-busy-and-productive-year-in-the-house.htm

  19. Kieran Kelly says:

    According to this poll around 72% (more than 2 out of 3) of Green supporters have left them over Turei, Adern, leadership and/or media bollocks. That would be an extraordinary drop without any real precedent in politics. There is little room to see how anyone could have decided to vote Green to spite the media and to reward one of the few acts of integrity.
    There is also little room for anyone to feel that Adern is too much of a slick “centrist” in the Tony Blair vein. The poll implies that these things are unthinkable, yet I have seen lots of evidence that some people are thinking these things. Why don’t they show up?
    I think this poll stretches credulity. Green supporters are not going to be deserting at that rate – not for the reasons given. It is statistically ludicrous.
    Twitter is not the same thing as real life, but at the same time it is an actual constituency that is significant in itself and crosses over with larger groups. This is particularly true of Green supporters, who are the biggest party in twitter terms. It is somewhat of an indication of the nature of Green voters – they are not passive victims of mainstream media – another reason to doubt their sudden departure, It has also been very clear that Tweeps have been very steadfast in supporting Greens. Search by hashtag or term and you will see the comments and likes that indicate a broad support for the Greens and Turei and Shaw. People are spontaneously expressing coherent sentiments and interpretations which are not part of MSM discourse, but are rational and/or moral reasons to give support to the Greens.
    The Green Party has nearly 28,000 twitter followers. If you think that many might not be supporters but merely following developments, consider that the governing party, National, has half as many followers and an infinite supply of people mocking them (read the comments on their posts).
    The Greens twitter following is nearly 1% of the number of registered voters. Obviously they are not the exactly the same as a random sample of Green supporters, but they don’t live on a different planet. What we have seen on twitter and in comments on the sort of websites that Green supporters are most likely to frequent is a lot of expressions of steadfast support. There are even avatar icons for “I stand with Metiria”. Turei clearly struck a chord with some people in her admission and it is hard to see why they and many more would all turn against the party subsequently.
    What would the logic be to the average Green voter to jump ship now? They know that under MMP a vote for Greens is a vote for an Adern-led government, why would they suddenly not want their erstwhile favourite party to be well-represented. The Greens have been around for a while now. They are extremely credible as a minor party that is the only such that is not reliant on a single personage as leader. What on Earth does anyone think would have to go through the minds of over 70% of them to change their minds at this point? It makes no sense whatsoever.
    We are left with a simple choice. We either accept that the poll is not only rigged but rigged outrageously, or we accept that all prior experience, a lot of circumstantial evidence, and the most basic reasoning regarding motive mean nothing. If the former we have to accept that our upright and robustly honest salt-of-the-middle-earth corruption-free 100% Pure Kiwi pollsters are no such thing. On the other hand, though we can’t properly quantify anecdotes and circumstantial evidence (and there can be flaws in reasoning) any change so statistically vast could not happen without the reasons and reasoning being very obvious and the results foreseen. You do not get 72% of a party’s support fleeing in such a short space of time. Nor does the explanation of inflation by disaffected Labour supporters hold, because a) Adern is arguably right of Little; b) Green support over time has been quite steady and it is difficult to see why those who supported them in previous years would have switched affil to Labour in order to be then driven back to Greens by poor Lab performance but then do some sort of yoyo manoeuvre back to Lab due to Adern. Human lifespans are longer than 3 years and we do not collectively shift allegiance that rapidly or stupidly.
    Statistically, although Greens are a smaller party, this is in a different league altogether than, say, the “unxepected” shift in the last UK election, although that does give you an indication of how much you can trust the pollsters. (A neglected fact of that election was that Labour won the roughly the same number of total votes as the Tories, whose slim majority came through FPP vagaries, not the popularity that the pollsters insisted they had). In proportion the Green drop is simply incomprehensible. It is literally unbelievable.
    It is common for political commentators to adopt a default stance of unthinking intellectual conservatism – a false application of Occam’s razor that presumes that no corruption can enter our pristine system because then you would have some form of Conspiracy Theory. There are two basic reasons for this. One is that it gives a facile sense of maturity and credibility to mediocre commentators. The other is that plainly everyone with a public profile is flak-whipped. The habit of not walking into an ambush has become internalised in each and the result is a gravitational pull into the circumscribed realm of establishment discourse – respectable establishment discourse. It is time to say “fuck that! I’ve got eyes and ears! Stop pissing on me and telling me it is raining.”
    That poll is crap. Pure crap. End of.

  20. Pat O'Dea says:

    “Build the wall” (to keep an independent Maori voice out of parliament)

    At ten percent. New Zealand First are the king makers. Winston Peters can choose to put either Labour, or National on the Treasury Benches.

    Playing to his redneck base, Peters wants a referendum on the Maori Seats. Labour says they won’t have a bar of it. The Maori Party, (obviously), also won’t have a bar of it.

    The National Party, stance on agreeing to hold a referendum on the Maori Seats?

    National is keeping their options open.

    If National can rule with NZ First, National may decide to dump the Maori Party, and give Peters his divisive referendum.

    This decision will be made easier for National, If the Labour Party is successful in their campaign to take all the Maori seats. This would remove the Maori Party from parliament, which will help National by removing the burden of their dilemma of having to betray their long time partner to go with NZ First, (and their divisive racist referendum)

    That Labour is investing resources and energy on a self destructive sectarian campaign to remove any independent Maori voice from parliament, defies belief.

    If successful this idiotic infighting will eliminate any chance of Labour increasing the size of the Left bloc and hand power to a powerful National, New Zealand First, bloc.

    This new conservative grouping could possibly be powerful and stable enough to rule for the next two elections.

  21. John Stroh says:

    Martyn, can we have your thoughts on how to vote strategically to help ensure there is a change of Government with National on the Opposition benches for as long as possible. Seats like Selwyn where there is historically a twenty thousand vote lead by National would be a good example to start with.

    • Nicke says:

      These polls are just knee-jerks to the events of the moment.

      The risk, as ever, is people trying to read entrails with only one or two polls to go on.

      “Smart money” people can run after what appears to be trends.

      15% becomes 4%, becomes maybe 8% or 9%.

      It is hard to imagine people were really deciding to re-allocate their votes so lightly. They wete just voting on the latest news report. It takes a bit more to fix a vote.

      Some wanted to say “welcome” to Jacinda, others were upset Metiria had resigned. Some were reacting to the Green’s disarray.

      We need a more mature attitude to polling information and a better understanding of how and why people respond as they do, and maybe a whole lot more data, or a whole lot less.

    • Nicke says:

      Strategic voting is not a big deal, except to keep the Greens in Parliament, in the unlikely event this is a thing, or to eliminate “sports” like ACT or Peter Dunne.

      Maori seats are slightly more subject to strategic voting, if you feel so inclined, but, truth to tell, and with a mind to what overall outcome you want, the system tries to allow you just to vote your own heart and mind.

      Strategic voting still feels just a little “icky”.

    • Gosman says:

      You think non National party candidates could win in Selwyn???

  22. Quicksilver says:

    Media sure have them horses frightened.
    The horses love some faces on their telly, but not others.
    Horses can’t read, so printed policies are simply eaten whilst watching the rugby.

    Think I’m exhibiting early signs of poll fatigue.

  23. Historian Pete says:

    Metirea made a ghastly mistake by bringing up her ancient transgressions. Lesson hopefully learned. And blaming the news media is a waste of time. She would have been okay if only the piranha news media had not attacked? Hullo! That’s what Piranhas do! However, if you cast your minds back to the Corban result in the U.K. election,you will notice the large discrepancy between the poll results and the actual result.Funnily enough this always seems to be at the expense of left parties. So, don’t trust the polls. And lets not panic. The left has a secret weapon called Bill English. When he comes up against Jacinda in the election debates the sheer stupidity of the man will be exposed to the gawking populace. Jacinda will expound a vision of a progressive N.Z, while Bill will look like he just fell out of a turnip paddock. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself . Onwards and upwards!!

    • Louis says:

      I would say that a lot more people will vote in this Sept election, as a direct consequence of Metiria and her stance against poverty and a broken welfare system, that ordinarily wouldnt have voted at all. imo the media often complicit in National’s dirty politics, have a lot to answer for.

  24. Louis says:

    hey for all those pessimists out there saying its all over for a LabGreen govt, its not over, there’s some weeks to go, the election proper hasn’t officially begun yet and a lot can change between now and Sept 23rd. msm want to demoralize as a low voter turnout favours National. kelvin said this morning, Greens will still get the first phone call if given an opportunity to form a govt, the real focus should be on National’s continued downward trend.

  25. Louis says:

    See on twitter Hooton tweeting that David Farrar is not releasing Curia’s internal poll rating for National and poll of polls is making a note that they are not getting Curia’s polling either. Obviously its not looking good for the Nats.

  26. J S Bark J S Bark says:

    Yeah, yeah…

    1- Just ‘coz TV1 says, don’t make it so. Did they report the truth about Operation Burnham, or Kim Dotcom, or the Pike River miners?

    2- Just ‘coz Jacinda is a little cutie-pie with a devastating smile and an “Abteilung achtung!” approach to her cabinet, doesn’t mean she’s gonna undo thirty years of neo-liberal doctrine. Look at her history of behaviour, her cabinet, and what she has or hasn’t said about anything.

    3- Do your research and use your frontal lobe and stop mimicking bloody sheep…

  27. nakiboy says:

    The Greens are dead in the water without a single idea of what to do, and with no clear policy to re-start their campaign. The only option for the left is to vote Labour. Labour must be strong enough to lessen any demands that Peters may be considering as part of a coalition deal.

  28. Not a Robot says:

    I am coming to the conclusion that Labour may well win, but not for the reasons most people suspect;

    Under Neo-Liberalism, both Parties are essentially the same. They are referred to as “Left” or “Right”, but they are really “Centrist”, because they are all singing from the same hymn sheet, of austerity, profits before people, growth, globalism etc.

    If there are any differences between them, they are mostly insignificant; one of them might tweak immigration slightly up or down more than the other, one of them might allow the housing market to move in one direction or the other for longer, but the differences never touch on the core principles of Neo-Liberalism. Both Parties agree that their fundamental purpose is to serve the cause of Neo-Liberalism, and the benefactors of Neo-Liberalism, the wealthy.

    Since both Parties are fundamentally the same, we the People are voting mostly based on style and media presentation, and if you think about it, this is more true now than it has ever been. John Key was the Teflon Don, the Darling Boy of the NZ media. Jacinda Ardern is uncannily, at least for now, the female, Labour doppelganger of John Key – John Key said as much the other day, when he “gave the nod” to Labour’s change, and signaled to the Right that it will all be ok.

    While upsets are always possible in elections, where you have a Two-Party electoral system effectively functioning as a One-Party State, you will always see indicators of the power-sharing agreements they have been done. The media signals the bargain, and is paid to deliver the result. Nothing is ever fated, and the People may still upset the apple cart, but under our system, things tend to go rather smoothly. The “contest” is mostly theatre.

    What is the current agreement in Ruling Class circles?

    By every appearance, including the strange lack of fight coming from National, it’s Labour’s turn. It looks like the fix is in, and unless Labour self-destructs, National will take a dive, right on cue.

    The idea that the Ruling Class might willingly accept a Labour government headed by JA may seem outrageous to many on the Left, but think about it; the Nats have run their course, and JA can certainly be trusted by the Ruling Class to deliver most if not all of what they need. What they need most is stability and direct access to a government as committed to Neo-Liberalism as they are. The Neo-Liberal ship will sail on, just under a different flag. Nothing has fundamentally changed.

    As I have said previously, Labour will be an incrementalism party, not a Revolutionary Party. NZ Labour, and JA in particular are direct descendants of Tony Blair and UK Neo-Labour, not Jeremy Corbyn. Under NZ Labour, as we have already basically been told, there is no Magic Money Tree, at least not where the poor are concerned. The Magic Money Tree is reserved exclusively for the rich. NZ Labour will govern “For the Few, Not the Many”.

    Again, as I said previously, this will be a disaster for the Left. If Labour is allowed to rule, it can only mean that the Ruling Class foresees a period of significant social unrest and a major economic downturn. Under those conditions, they will need Labour to keep the Poor and Working Class quiet, and keep the Left under control.

    The Left is always under the delusion that they can deal with Labour, and that they owe solidarity to a Labour government. In return for not causing too much trouble, we will be encouraged with the occasional doggie treat, but we will never be allowed near the trough. It will take another 8 or 9 years for the Left to finally succumb to despair over Labour’s appalling spinelessness on social and economic justice, by which time the Right will be allowed back in, and the Left will have another chew toy to play with. So on it goes, forever, because we on the Left seem to have no memory where Labour’s past betrayals are concerned. Like faithful mutts, we keep deluding ourselves that our master loves us, even though he beats us and starves us regularly.

    This cycle of abuse must end. It can only end when we finally leave our abusers and seek safety in some other place. But that is not likely to happen any time soon. We have lost the power to even dream of a world beyond the political fences that keep us captive.

    For now, just be aware; if Labour wins, it will not be cause for celebration. Expect troubled times ahead for New Zealand, and many crushing disappointments for the Left.

    • patricia bremner says:

      I don’t agree that Labour is a pale Left imitation of National!!!

      Jacinda is NOT a copy of John. FFS!!!!
      JK couldn’t speak decently, his mumbles were awful, AXSHUALLY.

      Further, Jacinda and team aim to review taxes and plan to have the top 10% and multinationals pay their way for a change. Not hide in trusts.

      She has not ruled out capital gains tax, and believes in fairness.

      Jacinda has kept Andrew Little by her side, let it be known she is her own person, and dealt with problems well.

      To compare Labour to this current sad lot of National users and tossers is laughable.

      John keey praised Jacinda to share her limelight, as nobody cared about his hollow gongs and titles … he’s Mr. 2% now people are awake.

      Roll on the 23rd “Let’s do this!!!”

  29. Dave says:

    “utterly manipulated they are by the mainstream media”You sound just like Donald Trump.

    • Louis says:

      Martyn is right though and he doesn’t sound like that.

    • Hey! No need to get nasty!! Calling anyone a ‘Donald Trump’ is a low-blow!!

      • Sam Sam says:

        I think every one wants to underestimate The Greens like some sort of cult fantasy.

        Gower Power does it all the time assuming that he is some sort of father of the nation. Like Judy Baily was the Mother of the Nation. I’m actually looking forward to the election results to see if Gower Power and the likes have learnt from Brexit, and Trump.

        Let the game continue.

  30. Neil says:

    An old fashioned First Past the Post  majority for Labour be a major upset, would be such a blind side play that would leave the likes of Gower & Hoskings etc., totally speachless. If it did happen chances are we would no doubt see responses like the accusations that the Russians interferred in the USA election

  31. Jonathan Roe says:

    Why has today’s Roy Morgan poll gone unreported, especially since it was more accurate then the OneNews poll last election. It calls mobile and landline. But it has the Greens on 9%, a far rosier picture than what the gleeful toss pots at OneNews tried to paint us yesterday.

    Nat – 42.5
    Lab – 32.5
    NZ First – 11.5
    Greens – 9
    TOP – 2
    Maori – 1.5
    the rest not worth mentioning.

  32. Mike the Lefty says:

    Martyn is right, the polls are totally manipulated by the media, but there is nothing surprising about it because that is basically their purpose.
    Humans are social creatures, they like to know what their fellow humans are doing, saying and what they believe in.
    There is an instinctive human reaction to follow the leader, follow the pack and to imitate them. There is also an instinctive human reaction to follow a winner, or at least someone you perceive to be a winner.
    That is what modern political polls are now – designed to create a trend and there is the unwritten promise that by following the majority “you’ll be right jack”
    That was never the original purpose of political polling. Political polling began because it was commissioned by political parties to find out what they were doing right and wrong and take appropriate action. Polls have been twisted and manipulated over time to become bigger and more important than they should be and they are now more for public entertainment than anything else.
    In one way that is good, anything that focuses people on issues has some merit but in other ways it is destructive. Polls have become an end unto themselves and media personalities have turned polls into intelligentsia numbers games far exceeding their snapshot values.
    It all reflects a terrible trend towards elections being turned into circuses staged entirely for entertainment purposes, not informational purposes as they should be.
    And the shallowness of the MSM nowadays suggests that this is not going to change in the near future.