The most concerning part of the volatility of the Polls has been how utterly manipulated they are by the mainstream media.
National down 3 to 44%
Labour up 13 to 37%
NZ First down 1 to 10%
Greens down 11 to 4.3%
Maori Party up 1 to 2%
These titanic movements are extreme and driven by the mainstream media coverage and narrative structures, which seems terribly bovine of us all.
We can all agree that the polls are biased, but a 11% drop or 13% surge are not margin of error stuff.
Cannibalising the Greens under the threshold is not how one wins an MMP election, but at this stage, Labour could seriously be looking for an old fashioned First Past the Post majority Government if Jacinda mania keeps building.
The most interesting insight is that the don’t knows dropped 7% to 13%.
The Greens need to regroup quick smart and double down on promoting the $180 a week lift in benefits, a Green Card (free public transport travel for students and beneficiaries), climate change reform, legalised cannabis reform and a serious renters rights agenda because the Greens right now need to play to their youth issues to bring them out on election day.
Jacinda’s popularity is stripping bare the truth that the Green vote was inflated by dissatisfied Labour voters. They are going home so the Greens need to go policy wise where Labour can’t.
It’s become a matter of survival.
The lift in the Maori Party vote will concern Labour, and makes the need to beat Tu Uroroa Flavell in Waiariki even more important than ever while defending Tamaki Makaurau.
In a surprise move, MANA should publicly announce they are pulling out of the none aggression pact with the Maori Party and call on MANA voters to back Labour in Waiariki and Tamaki Makurau in return for a deal in Te Tai Tokerau.
In an election that could be razor thin majority, these types of tactics are needed.
TOP are still in the hunt if there is a last minute National collapse and voters desert a sinking National ship. They will have been surprised to see no Green vote go to them. Gareth should have Kennedy Graham on the phone tonight, offer him the second spot position on the list and stand him in Epsom.
The truth however is that National are still holding a commanding 44% and despite the housing crises, mental health meltdown, homelessness explosion, rehashed meaningless policy, counter productive bullshit and draconian welfare state, 44% of NZers still love the National Party.
That is the most deeply concerning truth in this poll.
Labour could hit 40% and could even pull off a majority win if Jacinda wows the nation in the televised debates.
Talking of which…