I dislike The Nation on TV3 and don’t often watch it.
If I want right wing opinion masquerading as current affairs I can tune into ZB or read the NZ Herald.
The elite opinions of wealthy broadcasters with a passing interest in politics are as insightful as a Ponsonby Road shopping catalogue.
This morning Shane Jones bulldozed his way through an appalling interview with Lisa Owen where she displayed the exact smug contempt that Jones and NZ First are going to play up into a political tsunami this election.
Jones was brilliant and put on the kind of performance that rings every bell of a constituency that doesn’t believe its being heard.
Matthew Hooton keeps braying to anyone who will listen that NZ First are going to have a huge win this year, and he’s right, they are, but he always follows that up with the claim Labour are going to be the casualty of this gain.
I think he’s utterly wrong there.
Winston’s success in Northland and Jones candidacy in Whangarei speaks to something else entirely.
The dichotomy of National is that they speak small business morality yet pass policy for big business, monopolies and corporations. National voters are sick of the double standard while they see their own interests ignored.
The rupture between the provinces and Auckland isn’t just economic, it’s cultural.
Look at the careful wording Jones has used to date. Mentioning politically correct and talking openly about speaking to issues that make people feel uncomfortable is the full on cultural confrontation that the provinces are demanding.
The very snide elite opinion on display interviewing Jones on The Panel is the exact thing the provinces are rebelling against, but the seeds of that discontent is with National voters, not Labour ones.
Labour with Jacinda are aiming at the urban centres where the type of bloke folksy routine Jones spins is an anathema, but it is National Party voters who are most hungry for change.
They don’t see National progressing their concerns, they don’t see their infrastructure invested in, they don’t see their interests progressed, just big business mates of the Government.
Look at the recent stuff poll looking at voter attitudes. While not scientific because people selected to participate, it did have almost 40 000 participate. The most interesting part of that poll was just how frustrated male National voters are with the Party.
This frustration feels no home with Labour or the Greens as they represent the very cultural elitism that alienates these voters. To these voters the Greens and Labour can’t decide if they are Arthur or Martha and if they could decide would spend the next 12 months arguing over pronoun use.
In Shane Jones and Winston Peters this simmering resentment deep within the North Island provinces against lazy slack National MPs who have time served their existence through to double chinned backbench impotency is ready to rupture.
I think what we are seeing is a new provincial party in the form of NZ First and a Labour Party that effectively becomes an Urban City Party.
A change of Government is now a real possibility. I think NZ First will leap frog to the 3rd largest party at the downfall of National and the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with Green Party supply and confidence for Cabinet Positions.
Shane Jones is NZs truest Donald Trump and Muddle Nu Zilind will lap the Jonesy up like a prodigal son returned from making it big in Sydney. Low horizons on a flat earth.
Stuart Nash will be weeping into his pillow.
Winston Peters could well be the next Prime Minister.