I dislike The Nation on TV3 and don’t often watch it.
If I want right wing opinion masquerading as current affairs I can tune into ZB or read the NZ Herald.
The elite opinions of wealthy broadcasters with a passing interest in politics are as insightful as a Ponsonby Road shopping catalogue.
This morning Shane Jones bulldozed his way through an appalling interview with Lisa Owen where she displayed the exact smug contempt that Jones and NZ First are going to play up into a political tsunami this election.
Jones was brilliant and put on the kind of performance that rings every bell of a constituency that doesn’t believe its being heard.
Matthew Hooton keeps braying to anyone who will listen that NZ First are going to have a huge win this year, and he’s right, they are, but he always follows that up with the claim Labour are going to be the casualty of this gain.
I think he’s utterly wrong there.
Winston’s success in Northland and Jones candidacy in Whangarei speaks to something else entirely.
The dichotomy of National is that they speak small business morality yet pass policy for big business, monopolies and corporations. National voters are sick of the double standard while they see their own interests ignored.
The rupture between the provinces and Auckland isn’t just economic, it’s cultural.
Look at the careful wording Jones has used to date. Mentioning politically correct and talking openly about speaking to issues that make people feel uncomfortable is the full on cultural confrontation that the provinces are demanding.
The very snide elite opinion on display interviewing Jones on The Panel is the exact thing the provinces are rebelling against, but the seeds of that discontent is with National voters, not Labour ones.
Labour with Jacinda are aiming at the urban centres where the type of bloke folksy routine Jones spins is an anathema, but it is National Party voters who are most hungry for change.
They don’t see National progressing their concerns, they don’t see their infrastructure invested in, they don’t see their interests progressed, just big business mates of the Government.
Look at the recent stuff poll looking at voter attitudes. While not scientific because people selected to participate, it did have almost 40 000 participate. The most interesting part of that poll was just how frustrated male National voters are with the Party.
This frustration feels no home with Labour or the Greens as they represent the very cultural elitism that alienates these voters. To these voters the Greens and Labour can’t decide if they are Arthur or Martha and if they could decide would spend the next 12 months arguing over pronoun use.
In Shane Jones and Winston Peters this simmering resentment deep within the North Island provinces against lazy slack National MPs who have time served their existence through to double chinned backbench impotency is ready to rupture.
I think what we are seeing is a new provincial party in the form of NZ First and a Labour Party that effectively becomes an Urban City Party.
A change of Government is now a real possibility. I think NZ First will leap frog to the 3rd largest party at the downfall of National and the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with Green Party supply and confidence for Cabinet Positions.
Shane Jones is NZs truest Donald Trump and Muddle Nu Zilind will lap the Jonesy up like a prodigal son returned from making it big in Sydney. Low horizons on a flat earth.
Stuart Nash will be weeping into his pillow.
Winston Peters could well be the next Prime Minister.
Yep , when they asked people on the street in Whangarei who they’d vote for , the answers coming back were mainly ” anyone but National ”.
One small tip for Shane Jones…lose the cap pronto.
I know. He came across as a detestable person already. Now doubley so. Who is advising him?
That may be so, but we learned with Donald Trump that a motivated voter will overlook obvious weaknesses when the strengths are equally obvious.
Jones’ style of verbose prison-eloquence is off-putting to many, as is his obvious vanity, but they are not his audience.
Meanwhile, his message of rural and provincial renaissance actually IS part of the Green-Labour playbook. Or it SHOULD be.
I listened with some dismay to Andrew Little inventing policy, it seemed. on the hoof to the ZB Southland-based rural show.
It was not an aggressive interview and Andrew was attempting to explain Labour’s water policy. he started by asserting that bottled water would attract a premium payment. So far so good. Most Kiwis would applaud such a move. But then he attempted to tie it to some principled water-charge policy which, it seemed, would not tax drinking water – even for live stock – but would tax irrigation water, or something. The interviewer, as Little flailed somewhat, trying to tell the difference between commercial use of drinking and irrigation water, kindly let him off the hook by moving on with the interview.
Is it too much to simply say: we’ll make sure bottlers pay appropriately and that a fairer system will be negotiated with interested parties over water rights after the election. Either that or develop a coherent plan before giving an interview.
Water is a potential big winning subject for the Left. Not like this.
Further to that, is it time that REAL resources be allocated to the Opposition (even a National Opposition) to work on alternative public policy? (It would help the development of principled and effective policy hard to achieve with the mix of amateur and pro bono consideration that oppositions have to rely on at present).
Electoral support is a partisan matter, but opposition is a public service necessary to hold ANY government to account.
“Jones’ style of verbose prison-eloquence is off-putting to many, as is his obvious vanity, but they are not his audience.”
Ah, that’s what he reminds me of, I could never quite place it. I used to get a lot of jailbirds on parole coming through the kitchens I worked at, lots of them dudes who’d been total system-products: borstal to gang to prison to gang etc. They all had this eerily identical way of speaking. It’s like they were trying to sound like some kind of parody of a learned gentleman of old.
That’s 100% what Jones’ act sounds like to me.
But not as sickening as John Key who had support and grooming from Hill & Knowlton, international corporate criminals.
I think most farmers now realize National is a waste of space and the only party that is promoting export led growth and regional economic development is NZF.
100% Jack.
And I think that’s the power behind his oratory , – a combination of blunt , dry humorous scorn for those who feel always compelled to walk on eggs over every issue and over analyse, – and the same blunt delivery that does not pontificate and resort to the use of flowery words to deliver a message. In other words,… the farmer boy all grown up. And whether we like it or not – we still have a strong rural tradition in New Zealand.
…
Which is very interesting because Labour typically had its roots in the urban working class, – and the original Reform party of William Massey’s infamous ‘ Massey’s Cossack’s ‘ ( which went on to form a coalition with the United party then become the National party ) – had its roots in the rural sector. It is almost like we as a country ,… are going full circle after 100 years.
And yet the difference today being , is that primarily these two political camps are increasingly finding themselves uniting against a common foe : neo liberalism.
And here we see the tactical strength of Peters and those who voted for Jones in NZ First ,…they realize this rural National bloc dissatisfaction , and they realize Jones is the man along with Peters to give a voice to that dissatisfaction. There is no way in the world a trendy lefty from the Ponsonby art circles would ever reach these people.
I firmly believe there WILL BE a change of govt. However , I think the Greens will be more than just supply and confidence, – I think they will win valuable concessions no matter what. The destruction of our waterways under National is cause for grief not only from urban activists but rural community’s as well.Many rural community’s rely on a healthy outdoors for many activity’s – tourism for one being a big employer for example…
I see a powerful grouping of political party’s that combined , – hit all the high notes on all the vital areas affecting New Zealand, – from out of control immigration , polluted environments, to workers wages and conditions and the destructive negative influences of unchecked free market trade deals and their impacts on the quality of life of New Zealanders. There is so much common interests between them to provide a dynamic and creative positive outcome and future.
I do not know if Winston Peters will be the next Prime Minister , maybe he will , – but one thing we can be sure of , – is that NZ Firsts voting in of Shane Jones will ensure that iconic Kiwi farmers barking yell of ” Get in BEHIND !!!” will be firmly directed towards both the National party and Act.
I noted Shane Jones softening his position on the Greens. I suspect a similar process is happening in Winston himself. I think the Greens will either be full support or will try to maintain their voting independence with a couple of environment-oriented positions outside cabinet, while making up part of an extra-formal steering committee involving the two Governmental Parties, themselves and people like the Maori Party and Peter Dunne if he is still in Parliament.
This is not to lose power. We have often seem that smaller parties lose identity tied too tightly within a coalition. The mission of the Greens demands that they maintain a large dollop of independence. It would be their preferred position to keep some distance, in my view, however supportive they may be of many of the new government’s policies, many of which may originate from the Greens themselves.
The thing is, what will we get with a vote for NZ First?
A National-led government or a Labour-led government?
We don’t know.
That’s Winston’s decision.
Really? Why don’t we accept that from other political parties? Because it’s a dumb move. In effect, we are giving Winston our vote to use as he decides. The decision for a National-led or Labour-led government is taken from us and given to him.
Nah, screw that. I want to keep that choice myself.
You maybe suprised you might get NZF led Government
Doubtful, Jack.
The most that NZ First ever achieved was 13.35% in 1996. They was the hey-day of NZ First’s popularity.
ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_1996
I agree, Otto, No one is going to take my voting decision away from me. All those who seem to be mad keen on Jones would be shocked at the comments that are showing up on my Facebook page. Not one supports Jones and they are all vitriolic.
Disagree. Peters has always propped up the biggest party, which will obviously be National (there really is no doubt about this). Since I don’t want to prop up National by voting NZ First and won’t vote for a party with Greg O’Connor anywhere near it let alone in it, I doubt I’ll bother voting at all this year.
Nitrium, before you decide to surrender your voting right, read this from ‘Rebecca’; https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/06/30/update-family-of-five-including-six-month-old-baby-accommodation-crisis/#comment-388615
Hers is the vision of a brutish society that will become reality if we all give in.
Frank, I’m ultra-socialist (obvious, given I read just about all the content on this site), although that doesn’t always come across since I do enjoy playing the devil’s advocate on occasion (you have to be able to justify your views imo beyond mere personal ideology).
But none of the current parties are particularly compelling for me this election cycle. Internet Mana was a no-brainer for me in the last election, but (infamously) less than nothing came from it. IF I bother going out to vote, I’ll probably deface the ballot with a giant cock and balls. Sure it means nothing will change due to my vote but I’m in a rural (i.e. National) electorate anyway.
It is the responsibility of all committed voters to make their own compromises and vote, if you will, the least damaging.
When I first voted as am 18 year old I was thinking of not voting, thinking I could have no impact. But then someone made a comment that changed my mind.
They said that I was not unique. That probably twenty other people in my electorate probably felt just like I did.
And if I chose to vote, so would they.
I have voted with my twenty phantom fellow-travellers ever since. Even now when every single vote actually does count, even in electorates where people of your mind are thin on the ground.
So your call would be to give a party vote to Mana.
I am sure that would be appreciated by Mana and many others who mourn the loss of voice by abstainers who really can support a party offered in opposition to this neo liberal. resource / environment / social fabric destroying cabal.
Do your stuff while there is a chance to.
It’s your call NZF or don’t vote and have another 3 years of National ?
Exactly, it makes no difference. Voting NZF will just serve to prop up National, something utterly abhorrent to me. If we get another 3 years of National, I want my hands to be “clean”.
Winston never said he was going with National. If he did, I prefer NZ first than the Maori, Act, United Future party. He’ll keep them in check. We can’t go on with National holding the reigns… Winston also said he would talk to the party that got most of the votes but if they couldn’t make an agreement, then he wouldn’t go with them. There are other sides to the dice. I use to vote National, I can’t stand them either.. but Winston has not let me down since 2011. He deserves to be Prime Minister and Shane is right, there will be a more progressive party in power come Sept.
How would he “keep them in check”?
Considering NZ First would be the junior coalition partner, any attempt to “keep them in check” could be viewed by the electorate as the “tail wagging the dog”. Remember what happened in 1998/99 when Winston Peters attempted to keep Jenny Shipley “in check”? It tore NZ First in half and very nearly destroyed the party. Peters himself nearly lost his seat in Tauranga, retaining it by a hair-thin 63 votes in 1999.
ref: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_1999/e9/html/e9_partVI.html
The Greens don’t have a Shane Jones or a Greg O’Conner. But since you’re considering benching your vote completely, why not vote for a party taking a punt at the 5% threshold? TOP don’t have a Shane Jones or a Greg O’Conner either.
Or you could vote for a party that won’t reach the threshold which is the same thing.
Parties build numbers by starting and presenting ideas.
If a vote should only be cast for a potential winner then building a change would not happen.
Voting for policies and principles beat voting for false promises and con men.
@ NITRIUM
I agree entirely. In my view, winston peters’s double dirty. He sells himself as this and that but he’s just a dirty little politician/lawyer rat-fucker. A crafty Machiavellian confederate scripted to maintain the Status Quo by the equally dirty fuckers from the 1980’s zone of darkness including but not exclusively roger douglas, derick quigly, jenny shipely, ruth richardson the BNZ and its sundry crooked customers back in the day. Those cheap, narcissistic crooks now living the high life on the blood sweat and tears of their target market. Ordinary folk going about their business of trying to be happy and enjoying their good fortune by being alive on a rich, beautiful few islands miles away from nut jobs with small dick issues and big gun fetishes. Those scum bags, the ones winny’s running red herring for spotted an opportunity and ripped us all off.
He’s even shadier than ACT. A nasty, splinter groupie. A deep state liar who spins his webs of doubt and makes up points by leaning over and whispering sweet little nothings into the hearing aids of the politely bent Baby Boomers who’re about to stuff the retirements homes of tomorrow. Nice little property portfolio and fuck the homeless, isn’t that right folks?
I think it’s Johnny Cash time.
https://youtu.be/eJlN9jdQFSc
So, nitrium, your going to roll over and surrender? Ok, the rest of us will take up the slack. Shit is hard enough with this government, a bit extra because you decided not to do your bit is fine. We’ll cope.
By the way, don’t vote, you’ll excuse us if we ignore you.
Yep, I agree NZ First should be hoovering up disgruntled Nat votes in the provinces who are too conservative to want to go to Labour.
If NZ First, Labour and Greens collaborate then they could win by a landslide – just like Northland.
The John Key club has effectively hijacked the National party brand to an asset selling, privatisation and immigration party, far away from the hard working farmer roots. Like Tony Blair and Donald Trump it will take a long time for some voters to forgive the betrayal now it is clear what the National party been up to.
National can’t blame Labour any more after nearly a decade of decay. The National party are starting to resemble the whiners, good for nothing lazy, lying folks who are completely out of touch and their lies about Pike River and everything else is coming back to haunt them.
If NZ First play their cards right they could take out the National party. Lets face it, probably the proud ‘old nat’ types within the party are feeling pretty frustrated too with the hijack of the National party brand, by Key.
Nice, I draw the same comparison with Douglas hijacking the Labour party, the results which have evolved to what we are going through now and the deep distrust of Labour by a large number of the populace today.
National & ACT are State Asset Strippers and a reflection of the myrtle rust fungal pathogen which is currently spreading around the country under these wet damp conditions.
Yes all true that Martyn,
I love your probing the political argy bargy of this circus we call Parliament.
This sentence is closer to the truth “To these voters the Greens and Labour can’t decide if they are Arthur or Martha”
I am stuck in this rut and really see winston as the only straight talking leader of the pack now, as he resonates up & over the rest of the din at parliament now with all others using “double speak”.
Most folks connect with Winston’s logical straight talk.
NZ First has the best rail policy of any party and most important a common sense policy on providing balanced funding for infrastructure of all our provinces at the same time.
Nactional have clearly lost the plot as they sink all the funds from the taxpayer into “holiday highways” and Auckland roading infrastructure along with the “golden triangle” Hamilton, Rotorua, Tauranga, and starve the rest of the North island who are the export driver of the island but the rail and roads are just absolute crap now.
For instance napier has a single lane road now called the HB Expressway”which now carries over 2300 trucks every 24 hours!!!!!!
While at the same time Government are starving regional rail and Kiwirail are winding down all regional rail freight services now and have already closed the Gisborne section of the east coast rail, and our HBRC are being forced to ask the locals for money to operate a log stuttle from wairoa starting after the election and government have not offered any assistance to our region at all while we saw them quickly help out the south Island two sections of damaged rail the kaikoura and midland line but left us without any help for over five years now since a heavy storm damaged the 1km of the gisborne end of the east coast line!!!!
So we are in dire straights with residents suffering from sickness and lack of sleep from truck mania they have to sleep with a radio at their are to drown out the constant noise of trucks 24/7 now and the air pollution is horrendous with black toxic tyre dust coating all the properties along the Napier length of this crappy truck gridlocked road.
Napier is a sick place now, so folks will revolt in this election for sure as the rest of North Island that are missing out on similar funding for transport upgrades.
Winston knows of our plight and has been here assuring the communities of HB/Gisborne that his Government will save our rail and he will win big here and you can take that to the bank now.
People are so sick and tired of being abused by Nactional here and will have a big backlash to the way they arrogantly turned their backs on our regions.
Good post Martyn.
Don’t forget John Key’s Cycleway also a major infrastructural development during his reign over Nu Zillands Sleepy Hobbits.
Another fact is ACT will cease to exist after the September Election.
Don’t forget John Key’s Cycleway also a major infrastructural development during his reign over Nu Zillands Sleepy Hobbits.
Another fact is ACT will cease to exist after the September Election.
If he gets to decide Winston will go with which ever major party will allow him with the most of NZF’s policies, and the most influence in government, just as before. Shane Jones will be at least as ambivalent and pragmatic.
Lots of early chicken counting going on here.
D J S
I agree with you David Stone. We shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch with NZF involvement. I see no reason to get excited about Shane Jones. Quite the opposite in fact.
hopefully peter is dunne for in ohariu belmont and that waste of space is removed from distorting parliament aka the epsom style rort.
Indeed . A complete clearing out of all these odious hangers on is needed.
Peter Dunne and his ‘ family values’.
Yeah.
Right.
… while he supports the National party’s war on the workers and their family’s.
Year , … after year , … after year.
What a complete and total hypocritical scumbag.
Anyone for some synthetic cannabis ?
Dunne is there because of Labour / Green stupidity in splitting the vote..
So, there goes any chance NZ First will take climate change with Jones in the mix very likely, going by his track record. And, it’ll make them more appealing to National.
Simply it’s high time for a routing of the nasty NATZ in september folks.
NZ cannot survive with yet another three years of selling everything that is not sold that was built up by the older generations.
We will have simply nothing left for our future generations otherwise.
I don’t know anyone who has a good word to say about Oinky Jones. My prediction is that he will cause such division in that seat that National will hold it. Winston stuffed up big time.
DON’T COUNT YOUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH MR O’SHEA!!!
REMEMBER HOW TOXIC SHONKEY WAS PULLING PONY TAILS AND ALL THE PANAMA CORRUPTION AND LIES????
KIWIS FORGIVE EASILY DON’T THEY NOW?
Winston won’t care. He will run with the hounds and hunt for what ever he pleases.
His roots are National and with Key gone its likely he will head home.
Long since given up trying to predict how the dimwitted electorate of this country will vote. Ignorant. Apathetic. Gullible.
If the morons of NZ’s heartland and leafy suburbs thought Key was so worthy for so long, then who can truly predict how they’ll regard this shyster?
But what I do know is this.
There is only one way to vote to change this government for certain.
Not voting, or voting for NZF, or ANY of it’s other enablers, simply will not cut it.
One interesting aspect of this is how the MMP revolution impacted on political parties.
First Past the Post was geared for a two-party system. Anything else (with some exceptions) was a “wasted vote”.
With MMP, voters now had real choice (to a limit imposed by the 5% threshold).
But so did party activists. They were no longer tied to the Two Big Parties. They could splinter off and form their own parties. Which happened with NZ First, the Greens, Newlabour Party (NLP), ACT, Maori Party, and a few others.
This happened predominantly with left-oriented parties, which saw Labour fragment into it’s environmental faction (the Greens); clothcap worker’s party (the NLP), and maori nationalists (Mana Motuhake and later on the Maori Party).
For National, this fragmentation happened, but to a much, much lesser degree; NZ First, Right of Centre Party, Christian Heritage, and a couple of small players such as the short-lived Liberal Party.
So for National, the fragmentation into it’s constituent factions has been stalled because the Right have had no reason to splinter off. For the Right, the core philosophies of small government, low taxation, privatisation, and hyper-individualism was met by National.
But as National has embraced globalisation, which hurts local businesses and frightens many of it’s supporters, that support has waned.
The name “National” might as well be replaced with Global NZ Inc.
Disaffected National supporters can complete the fragmentation of National into it’s constituent factions much like Australia has it’s urban Liberal Party and rural National Party.
Here in New Zealand the fragmentation could well see an urban National Party and a regions-based NZ First.
Under Peters, that might see a slowing downing (but not a full-scale reversal) of the neo-liberal globalisation trend.
But – and here’s the sticking point – a Shane Jones-led NZ First would be entirely different, as Jones has always been a Globalist.
Whatever happens, under MMP voters are not wedded to one or either of a Two Party choice. Like consumers at Pak N Save, they can “shop around” for a choice of beans to purchase. As Northland demonstrated, voters can easily move from “Brand National” to an alternative.
It’s as easy as ticking one or two boxes.
Pretty nice post , there , Frank.
… ” Here in New Zealand the fragmentation could well see an urban National Party and a regions-based NZ First.
Under Peters, that might see a slowing downing (but not a full-scale reversal) of the neo-liberal globalisation trend. ” …
Another factor to possibly bear in mind was that Peters was in National when there was a general consensus between both Labour and National of the Keynesian economic model. Which went hand in hand generally with our former Social Democracy .
Whereas, after Roger Douglas ‘s 1984 neo liberal reforms ,.. Peters came into conflict with the new generation of neo liberals in National ( and of course, Labour ) …
And though criticized for forming a coalition with National , ( Bolger ) – he has also formed a govt with Labour ( Clark ) . And to be very honest … there wasn’t really a lot of choice out there . The smaller break away groups had limited influence if they were not in direct coalition with the incumbents. Usually supply and confidence .
However ,…
… ” But – and here’s the sticking point – a Shane Jones-led NZ First would be entirely different, as Jones has always been a Globalist. ” …
I think this is part of the source of many peoples angst among other things… and it is a concern . I recall a few statements in the past Jones made that made me sit up and think… ” I don’t really like the sounds of that… sounds like a Douglas thing to say ”…
And that’s about the only thing that bothers me about the guy.
Indeed, Katipo.
If Shane Jones is as anti-globalist as Peters professes to be, I’ve yet to see/hear any evidence of it.
Judging by Jones’ record, he would appear to be better suited in National, sitting beside Tim Groser negotiating the TPPA. That would be his kaupapa (if I understand the term correctly).
I think Winston has educated and he now realizes the proposed TPPA was just one big con in favour of the multinationals, talking to people I know in Kerikeri & Whangarei they were quite positive about Shane Jones, obviously he will get some support from te tangata whenua who are on the General Roll in Whangarei.
Definitely pro getting rail going to North Port.
You could be right because according to Shane:
“UP and DOWN the north, people are chanting SHANE! SHANE! WHY DID YOU LEAVE?”
SHANE SHANE hold the ladder steady.
Hosana in the Highest
Agree entirely Bomber except for one serious oversight by all.The Greens are desperate, I mean really desperate to be in Government. I can see them putting the Nat’s back in if they dont get their way in the talks post election!
Highly doubtful he will go with National especially after Jenny Shipley nearly destroyed NZF after the first MMP Election.
I don’t think NZF will discount the Greens, all parties need to work together to sort out the mess the country is currently in, I would be quite happy with a Labour/NZF/Greens Coalition, some very good people in all those parties.
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