Here’s the 6 months out from the election analysis, here’s the run down 5 months out and here’s the state of play 4 months out from the 2017 election.
4 months out from a General Election and the list of issues that our political class and corporate media are avoiding is just extraordinary…
- Mass incarceration rates and a racist prison system only creating more damaged individuals.
- Suicide rates that are out of control and may be 3 times higher than officials claim
- A toxic culture inside WINZ, CYFS and MoD that denigrates and destroys beneficiaries
- Catastrophic climate change and how we will adapt to that
- An unemployment and under employment rate far higher than officials admit
- A speculative property bubble that can’t be tamed
- Polluted rivers destroyed by dairy farming
- Egregious under investment in infrastructure
…it’s almost as if the Middle Classes who are property investors don’t care as long as they can get another 5% in untaxed capital gain and those desperately just trying to get by don’t have the time or energy to engage while the mainstream media simply regurgitate the latests CCTV Dairy violence without ever questioning how over zealous social policy is fuelling that violence.
Political Party Challenges:
NATIONAL – current poll of polls 43%
National’s ability to lie straight to the nation and ensure the media carry those lies unchallenged has reminded everyone who wants a change of Government just how hard it will be in September.
Here are 10 truths about the budget…
- The tax package is heavily skewed towards high-income Kiwis.
- The bottom half of income earners get 20% of the value of the cuts. The top 10% also get 20% of the money.
- The poorest 800,000 get nothing.
- 500,000 low income working Kiwis get $1 a week net.
- Health gets a real terms cut of $200m
- Education gets a real terms cut of $80m
- It does nothing for housing.
- The extra $2b for infrastructure is only paying for cost blow-outs, not new projects
- Accommodation Supplement increase is a con job
- Cuts home insulation program when we know 1600 NZers die from the cold each year, that’s a death sentence for some of our most vulnerable.
…but how did the mainstream media sell the budget? According to them it was a left wing family friendly budget and Labour were in disarray because the budget was so good.
Unbelievable horse shit, but it has helped National stem some of the momentum that was flowing away from them.
The problem for National is that the budget does nothing to fix the damage 9 years of underfunding for tax cuts has created. National may have temporarily fooled the public into thinking their budget was left wing and family friendly but the rotten fruit of National’s 9 year harvest is still going to dominate the election.
The self serving manner National have given a knighthood to John Key may hurt them, but all they need to do is keep lying and rely on the mainstream media to parrot those lies.
National strategists will be worried that they are polling this low going into the election because National traditionally over poll by 5-6 points in the months leading up to the election. That could mean an election night result in the high 30s or low 40s.
LABOUR – current poll of polls 29.5%
Labour have faced an aggressive mainstream media campaign to paint them in disarray this month. Bullshit stories on coups, 72nd ranked candidate complaints and refusing to give Patrick Gower a free punch to the face were all apparently more important than Gerry Brownlee directly contradicting NZs position on Israel, Alfred Ngaro threatening community groups and a budget that did nothing to address the problems National have left the country with.
Beneath that media white noise however has been an incredibly strong door knocking and phone calling election campaign that has already kicked off in Auckland and is showing incredibly high support for Labour.
Despite Matthew Hooton’s claims of a Labour vote collapse, internal polling has never been higher and if Labour can continue the success they are getting in Auckland for the next 4 months, they have the real potential of being the next Government.
There is policy to be rolled out that will cause real interest amongst New Zealanders.
GREENS – current poll of polls 13%
The Green Party transformation into a cosmopolitan middle class movement that has left its radical environmental heritage behind to appeal to Remuera soccer mums and the aspiration of middle class millennials who can’t get into the property market has been completed with the new Party List.
Hilariously the hopelessly middle class Heather du Plessis-Allan thinks the Green Party line up is proof positive of how ‘diverse’ the Greens have become. When Heather says ‘diverse’ she unconsciously means middle class.
By promoting young middle class women high on the list, the Greens have provided themselves with their only chance to appeal directly to the middle class aspirations of the under 30s electorate who are the largest group of untapped voters.
This shift to being a middle class party does have problems, the polls are biased towards the middle classes and the Greens high polling may be a reflection of that bias rather than real populist support.
Consider Red Peak and the belief on social media by the Greens that it was hugely popular and would be our new flag. After all the twitter hype, it didn’t even manage to get to the 9% in the end.
That kinda sums up the Greens.
The gains by being a non-radical middle class party are real though, it means they get more donations than the Labour Party, but extra donations doesn’t conquer political incompetence.
The problem for the Greens will be in competently handling the election campaign and the post election negotiations. For the last 3 years the Greens have shown a serious staffing failure and inability to comprehend what their next move will be. The decision to vote for the budget was one such cock up.
The challenge for the Greens this election will be to avoid getting beaten by NZ First and how they will manage to reign in their supporters on social media once their activists learn to count and realise Labour + Green won’t = 51%.
Bets are now on for which one of their candidates says something very angry about Winston Peters on social media once he starts tuning up the anti-immigration rhetoric in the campaign.
NZ FIRST – current poll of polls 10.5%
He’s like a hungry fox who knows the hen house is unlocked.
The grin, the sly eyes, the huge turn outs he’s getting whenever he speaks, Winston is going to damage National in the provinces and has the real opportunity of leap frogging the Greens as the 3rd largest party.
Winston will have an eye to legacy, and Labour could offer him that by allowing the Super fund to invest in a massive infrastructure rebuild.
The danger of NZ First however is from the cavalcade of political circus freaks Winston will bring in with him.
Winston doesn’t have the control over NZ First caucus he once did, Tracey Martin being replaced by Ron Mark as Deputy Leader showed that, so bringing in Shane Jones will be a defensive move by Winston to reassert dominance.
Understanding the next Government after September will require understanding the erratic factions within NZ First.
MAORI PARTY – current poll of polling 1%
Made no cut through in the media this month, looks like they are stalling. They are likely to win an electorate but are not gaining enough media attention to pull in the Party vote for a second MP. The Fox and the Shark better start running and swimming or they will be fighting to just gain what they have now. Once Winston announces he won’t work with any Government that includes the Maori Party, they are in trouble.
UNITED FUTURE – current polling 0%
Fearing the end of his political career, Peter Dunne is now trying to claim he is a champion for cannabis reform despite making Helen Kelly a criminal for the final months of her life. His meaningless reform agenda however does nothing and if there is a God, he’ll get dumped this election.
ACT – current polling 1.5%
Seymour still has a good chance of bringing in another ACT MP off the list if he remains the only voice hammering the anti-immigration rhetoric of Winston.
TOP – current polling .4%
Have had an amazing month with their cannabis reform legislation. They are more radical than the Greens on this issue now and have a more radical agenda for climate change. Stands a decent chance of getting 3% mostly from disillusioned National voters.
MANA – current polling .2%
The press releases are becoming more and more fiery and are constantly highlighting Labour Party hypocrisy. The battle for Te Tai Tokerau is going to be hard, but Hone still has a shot.
The biggest indicator for a genuine desire for change came earlier this year from two Horizon Polls.
The first is how there is a change of sentiment amongst the 2014 and 2017 electorate…
…in the 2014 election, 56% wanted a National led Government, this time 54% want a Labour led Government. That’s a clear signal for change. The second interesting thing is that 77% of NZ First voters want a Labour led Government…
…if NZ First does hold the balance of power, their own members overwhelmingly want Labour to lead the Government. The caveat to that is NZ First are about to drag in a large number of National voters this time around.
My conclusion 4 months out is the same I had last month, I think the 2017 election will be close and won on the margins, but if there is a change of Government, the most likely outcome will be a Labour-NZ First minority Government with the Greens in supply and confidence for a couple of Ministry positions.
Second likeliest outcome is National with NZ First coalition Government
Outside chance Labour+Green+Maori Party + MANA = 51%
And… zero mention of the unsustainable, neo-colonial levels of immigration that are exacerbating the above problems out of sight…
What’s with the oxygen given to TOP? Are you hoping to split the vote and gift National another term in power?
Split the vote … no, I’m voting for TOP because they have the best policies and competent members. Did you see the bunch of would-bee MP’s (from the main stream parties) on The Nation this week … what a sad bunch of talent that lot was. No, not splitting the vote – using the vote!
I like TOP, though I’m watching the polls up to the very last minute. Same thing, good policies though I found the constitutional reform to be a bit filler-ish.
A pity Jeremy Corbyn and his team haven’t figured out yet that taxing property rather than wages is the best way to go after the ruling class. It also puts a spoke in the wheel of the capital flight argument which gets raised against progressive income tax platforms too.
Re the ignored issues:
* Mass incarceration rates and a racist prison system only creating more damaged individuals:
This affects only a few thousand people, who are locked out of sight of voters, and with MSM continuing to report on dramatised crime events and instilling fear into the public’s minds, few voters would care about what goes on in our prisons, that is a sad truth.
* Suicide rates that are out of control and may be 3 times higher than officials claim:
Again, this affects only a few hundred people, well a few thousand with relatives and friends affected, and as sad and shocking the situation in NZ is, again, most voters have other things on their minds, have other pressing concerns that are more imminent, so few will go voting on this topic and issue.
* A toxic culture inside WINZ, CYFS and MoD that denigrates and destroys beneficiaries:
Now, officially, less than 290,000 persons receive a main benefit, the MSM has sold us the story that they are “all” getting more somehow, that is through the BS investment approach, in support, they got $25 per household a year ago, now get more through an Accommodation Supplement, although it does not come until April 2017 and will lead to reduction in temporary additional support that many on benefits also get. With supposedly high employment, many jobs advertised, supposedly “low” unemployment, and the usual bias being fed by MSM and government, most voters will question whether anything is wrong with WINZ, and whether the odd story about suffering is genuine and representative of the general clientele. The bulk of voters do not give a shit about beneficiaries, they want more into their pockets, and vote accordingly.
* Catastrophic climate change and how we will adapt to that:
Climate change is REAL, but is tricky as an issue, it comes very gradually, is hard to detect, and most voters have very subjective perception and judgment, so while some are concerned, many will do nothing, do not consider it a priority for themselves to feel overly concerned with, and vote accordingly. Personal aspirations in a consumerist, neoliberal, competitive and selfish society are ‘priority’, so they look for more income, more into their pockets and the ability to afford stuff, including of course housing, cars and what else they expect. Sadly it is given fuck all attention by the MSM, except when freak weather hits, and so most are under informed and will not vote with this on their minds.
* An unemployment and under employment rate far higher than officials admit:
As mentioned above, re WINZ and so, the bulk of voters are employed, have become accustomed to neoliberal, capitalist competitive job market conditions, some know nothing else, and while there is job insecurity in many low paid jobs, the ones that are employed there do not vote in same numbers as the middle class that have more secure jobs. Again, those not getting jobs are often judge as lazy, incompetent, dumb and what else comes to mind, and hence, with the conditioning of past decades, too few will take this as seriously as they should. This will not be a vote changer and election issue at the top, I fear.
* A speculative property bubble that can’t be tamed:
That is absolutely true, but as most live and work day to day, like running in a hamster wheel, they see no further than the tip of their noses and live to get to the weekend, which is for a bit of time off, leisure, diy-ing, shopping and sports. Those that have homes are not unhappy about its value, but may gripe about the higher rates (new valuations are in progress here in Auckland). But rates are still manageable for most, and the market is now slowing or stable, at a very high, unaffordable price level. The only ones really concerned are those who wish to enter or climb the property market ladder, and who cannot afford even a deposit. Some have resigned, especially many of the youngest generation, that they will stay longer with mum and dad and be renting for the rest of their lives. But much distraction keeps them away from thinking seriously for the long term. As construction is high and expanding, and as the MSM only report now and then, and in bits on the real size of the problem, the voters will in insufficient high numbers make this the issue it deserves to be. Nevertheless, this is where Labour can really make some headway, by making more aware of the size of the problem.
* Polluted rivers destroyed by dairy farming:
Most voters in Kiwiland live in cities, large and small, and few ever see dirty rivers with their own eyes, unless they head out on week-ends and during annual holidays. It is again a serious issue and topic, but a bit away from most voter’s home, as the water from the tap is ok in the vast majority voters’ homes. Dairy is one big earner, still now, and growing again, sadly too many are mindful of the hand that feeds them, without realising other potential and alternatives, so it remains to be seen, whether people vote with this being a priority for them personally. It will concern some, but only 10 to 13 percent vote Green, are thus primarily environmentally concerned.
* Egregious under investment in infrastructure:
Another real issue, that is getting worse by the day. This is a topic and issue most can relate to, as it affects them daily, when traveling to and from work, when heading to the malls and so for shopping and other things. The real issue is now credit limitations, that is for Auckland City, the Council, and even developers, as the banks cannot simply hand out money under the present rule set, risking they over over leveraged, so this will constrain development capability, same as labour and materials shortages, which will all drive costs to the sky. The City Rail Link will explode in costs, wait and see, it will be massive, and other projects also. The high immigration continues unabated, and acerbates the problem. We are in real crisis territory here, as we have ever more pressure and demand, and not the money and resources and speed of time to catch up. It grows gradually, and I fear for this election the crisis will not be severe enough for those idiot Nat voters to see they have been led into a mess.
Some of the issues and challenges NZ Inc faces are related to the last one above, and another one or two, and they are aggravated by high immigration. Certainly in Auckland that must be a major issue for voters that can vote, as we are reaching a situation where we are bursting at the seams and have no way of coping with it. Why is immigration not listed. The MSM does report on it from time to time, but with biased reporters, news readers and the general dumbing down, we get no honest answers and solutions, and voters are not told the whole truth. So only Winston seems to have the guts to address this issue head on, which will give him and NZ First a nice increase in support and votes.
100% Mike, great effort.
Substantially on the button, I think
It will be NZ First who decides who gets to govern but I cannot imagine Ron Mark going with any coalition that includes the Greens. He’s just so the opposite of them.
luckily it will be Winston not Ron Mark making the decision
Good review of the current situation Martyn.
With English meeting Tillerson the Oil baron later this week there now may be some sparks here.
Tillerson is tied up with the oil discovery using the earthquake producing ship “Amazon Warrior” that destroyed Kaikoura as it was operating there when the earthquake stuck and fled since.
But now “Amazon Warrior” is off Gisborne/HB and has also caused several earthquakes since and the local anti oil Iwi mob are now demonstrating against it’s presence and the tribes are preparing to leave to go to UN to claim against this ship called “Amazon Warrior”
destroying the shores and moana of the east coast, so plenty of fires are being lit around this rotten Government now.
Matter of time mate, so they say “A day in politics is a very long time.”
So Cleangreen….. you are saying that the Amazon Warrior caused the Kaikoura Earthquake? What about the Christchurch quake in 2011 on the same faultline? Was the Amazon Warrior allegedly off Akaroa in 2011?
Are you smoking what Peter Dunne is trying to legalise? Is that where the Cleangreen pen-name comes from?
Is this another Chemtrails-caused-the-grassy-knoll conspiracy? Are you another moon-landing denier – should I call you Colin Cleangreen? Do you also believe the Killuminati site that says that the twin towers collapse was a controlled demolition and that the crashed plane could not have fitted the hole in the side of the Pentagon?
Hmmm. I think you might need to re-consider the Amazon Warrior hypothesis CG – maybe the Amazon Warrior is causing sea level rises and global warming too?
You sound as deluded and flaky as See-More.
Bit quiet CG?
Too busy watching http://www.neonnettle.com/features/653-us-army-whistleblower-i-have-proof-a-missile-hit-the-pentagon-on-9-11
???
Fundamentalist debunkers who blindly disbelieve in everything but the official narratives, are just as unhelpful as the fundamentalist contrarians who believe in everything but the official narratives. Trust no one. The truth is out there. In a lot of cases it’s on the web, where both flaky conspiracies *and* official narrative can often be debunked.
Classic example is the pro-1080 claim that NZ uses the vast majority of the world’s 1080 because it only affects mammals. Forest and Bird still have a modified version of this claim on their website:
” It is used sparingly in these countries because of the need to protect their native mammals.”
http://www.forestandbird.org.nz/saving-our-environment/native-plants-and-animals-/protecting-native-forests-1080/1080-frequently-ask
As the rest of that same page now implicitly admits, this claim was horseshit. 1080 works by interrupting the Krebs cycle in animal cells, and affects any creature that breathes air. Yet for years anti-1080 campaigners were dismissed as “conspiracy theorists” for pointing out that 1080 kills native wildlife as well as introduced mammals.
Deluded and flaky ? Fuck off. Fuck right off wanker. Take your insipid Right Wing taunts and shove them up your arse.
@ CLEAN GREEN is a person with a huge heart and a creative thinker too. He / She doesn’t deserve a fuck like you sniping at his/her heels.
Twin Towers? Fuck yes, they were flattened by scum hidden within the USA war industry.
Who then shot JFK smartarse?
You should try a toke? You might learn something about yourself. I know teetotelers. They’re more boring, ignorant, judgemental and miserable than a church full of Presbytarians of which, no doubt , you’re a regular at worship weekends for the invisible flying bearded ding dong that God clearly is.
I so agree with this analysis!
“Fearing the end of his political career, Peter Dunne is now trying to claim he is a champion for cannabis reform despite making Helen Kelly a criminal for the final months of her life. His meaningless reform agenda however does nothing and if there is a God, he’ll get dumped this election.”
imo..Phony Peter Dunne has inflicting so much pain on the elderly by his immoral denial of medicinal cannabis and he has shortened the lives of many elderly New Zealanders and others by leaving them to the mercy of dangerous prescribed fatal opioids, he does not deserve to be re-elected!…I hope the policeman Greg O’Connor beats him severely!
…as for the Greens they look so goddamned cheesy…they look like a bunch of school prats out for a party…who would want to vote for them?…politics is supposed to be a serious business…climate change is also no cause for celebration…lol
Gareth Morgan looks the real deal….but will a vote for him get over the line and be counted?…same with Mana…but here is to hoping Hone gets the Te Tai Tokerau seat this time without the dirty politics by his adversaries
Andrew Little has had no effect on Labour’s polls…he is blowing hard but to no effect…. Labour should have stuck with David Cunliffe and the middle aged Labour women for gravitas – Annette King and Nanaia Mahuta and Sue Moroney … these women are serious professional committed politicians with much experience…they are no snowflakes…but they have been demoted, cast aside and lost to the Labour Party and its voters…
NAct is very aptly described by Martyn Bradbury…
We live in a very safe rural seat, held by National.
However, in conversations I have had, it seems the mood is to give this current Govt a bloody nose.
There are a couple of other Parties that rural protest votes could move to, like NZ First and TOP or even Labour.
And the farming communities usually do ok under Labour.
Latest polls have the Nats at 49% so I think not
I’d love to see NZF or TOP peel off a Nat seat or two.
Ashburton must be feeling the burn right now, what with their water situation? Spots like that might not go for Labour, but they’d probably dig someone like Peters or Morgan.
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