The Daily Blog 2014 progressive voter guide – who to vote for to change the Government

62
2

the-daily-blog-305x78

If you want to know how to vote in a way to change this Government,  here is the electorate by electorate guide on how to strategically vote to kick National out of office.

There are two votes. Electorate vote and Party vote.

 

PARTY VOTE GUIDE:

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

These are the only Political Parties who have ruled out propping up National and who also have a realistic chance of getting political representation.

-Labour

-Green

-Internet MANA

All Party votes cast for any of these parties will ensure your vote goes to changing the Government.

 

 

ELECTORATE VOTE GUIDE: Vote for these candidates in your electorate for the best chance of a change in Government. The following candidates have the best chance of winning their electorates if all progressive voters rally behind them. Some candidates will be right wing ones, but in those cases the tactic is to end National’s coalition partners. Some electorates are National Party strongholds and are open for voters to cast their vote where they like. 

Auckland Central – Jacinda Ardern, Labour. Green Party voters who waste their vote on Denise Roche will either hand this electorate to the National Party or they will cast it for Jacinda and oust this Government.

Bay of Plenty – National strong hold. Open vote.

Botany – National strong hold. Open vote.

Christchurch Central – Tony Milne, Labour. This is close enough for Labour to win.

Christchurch East – Poto Williams, Labour.

Clutha-Southland – National strong hold. Open vote. Recommendation – TDB blogger Rachael Goldsmith, Green Party. Just to stick it to the establishment.

Coromandel – National strong hold. Open vote. Recommendation – TDB blogger Catherine Delahunty, Green Party. Just to stick it to the establishment.

Dunedin North – David Clark, Labour.

Dunedin South – Clare Curran, Labour.

East Coast – Moana Mackey, Labour. If Green voters put their electorate vote to Moana, there is a chance with a turn against National for Anne Tolley to be kicked out.

East Coast Bays – Murray McCully, National. I know, I know, I know. We all hate Murray bloody McCully, but don’t you hate Colin Craig even more? If Colin wins this electorate, he brings in a religious book burning squad. No matter how slim that chance, vote Murray McCully.

Epsom – Paul Goldsmith, National. This may be one of the most important strategic votes any progressive has. If ACT win this electorate, their far right agenda gets in, if National win, ACT are killed off as a political force this election. Labour and Green voters have it in their power to do this. Please use that power.

Hamilton East – National strong hold. Open vote.

Hamilton West – Sue Moroney, Labour.

Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta, Labour Party.

Helensville – National strong hold. Open vote.

Hunua – National strong hold. Open vote.

Hutt South – Trevor Mallard, Labour.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti – Te Hāmua Nikora, MANA.

Ilam – National strong hold. Open vote.

Invercargill –  Lesley Soper, Labour.

Kaikoura – National strong hold. Open vote.

Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni, Labour.

Mana – Kris Faafoi, Labour.

Mangere – Sua William Sio, Labour.

Manukau East – Jenny Salesa, Labour.

Manurewa – Louisa Wall, Labour.

Maungakiekie – Carol Beaumont, Labour.

Mt Albert – David Shearer, Labour.

Mt Roskill – Phil Goff, Labour.

Napier – Stuart Nash, Labour.

Nelson – Maryan Street, Labour.

New Lynn – David Cunliffe, Labour.

New Plymouth – Andrew Little, Labour.

Northcote – National strong hold. Open vote.

Northland – National strong hold. Open vote.

North Shore – National strong hold. Open vote.

Ohariu – Virgina Anderson, Labour. Important electorate that would take out another National Party coalition partner.

Otaki – National strong hold. Open vote.

Pakuranga – National strong hold. Open vote.

Palmerston North – Iain Lees-Galloway, Labour.

Papakura – Ok, this is a safe National Party seat, but screw Judith Collins – vote Jerome Mika, Labour.

Port Hills – Ruth Dyson, Labour.

Rangitata – Steven Gibson, Labour.

Rangitῑkei – National strong hold. Open vote.

Rimutaka – Chris Hipkins, Labour.

Rodney – This is a safe seat for National, however Mark Mitchell is going to have a very, very, very bad election. Keep eyes open for this electorate.

Rongotai – Annette King, Labour.

Rotorua – Tamati Coffey, Labour.

Selwyn – National strong hold. Open vote.

Tāmaki – National strong hold. Open vote.

Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare, Labour Party.

Taranaki-King Country – National strong hold. Open vote.

Taupō – National strong hold. Open vote.

Tauranga – National strong hold. Open vote.

Te Atatū – Phil Twyford, labour.

Te Tai Hauāuru – Adrian Rurawhe, labour Party.

Te Tai Tokerau – Hone Harawira, MANA.

Te Tai Tonga – Rino Tirikatene, Labour Party.

Tukituki – National strong hold. Open vote.

Upper Harbour – Hermann Retzlaff, Labour.

Waiariki – Annette Sykes, MANA

Waikato – National strong hold. Open vote.

Waimakariri – Clayton Cosgrove, Labour.

Wairarapa – National strong hold. Open vote.

Waitaki – National strong hold. Open vote.

Wellington Central – Grant Robertson. Labour.

West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor, Labour.

Whanganui – Hamish McDouall, Labour.

Whangarei – National strong hold. Open vote. Recommendation – TDB blogger Kelly Ellis, Labour Party. Just to stick it to the establishment.

Wigram – Megan Woods, Labour Party.

 

 

 

62 COMMENTS

    • Wairarapa is a swinger seat it has been labours and national recently it was Nationals but the mp has retired from politics so its not an open vote the Labour person standing is being doing some great work and was doing before National named their person I believe Labour could win this seat and Ron Marks for New Zealand First is standing as well. I dont live in the seat but I have people that I know that in the seat and so I have got alot background on this seat. Labour can win this seat.

  1. I’d suggest Clutha southland voters vote for the national candidate in the same way they should in Epsom to make sure the act candidate doesn’t sneak through.

    • Gazza

      Yes! There is no point in Epsom voters holding their noses to vote for the bag of flour Nat, if the Southern farmers decide to elect their old mate; Don Nicolson, rather than some young tobacco-stained whippersnapper.

      I appreciate Rachael Goldsmith’s articles on TDB, and her courage in the fight to preserve reproductive choices for Southland woman. But a vote for her might give ACT a backdoor into parliament – it’s got to be Todd Barclay for Clutha-Southland progressive candidate vote!

      • Goldsmith for Clutha-Southland. Barclay is owned by Big Tobacco and will behave like an ACT MP anyway. Plus, he’s pissed quite a few of the farmers off, so I hear.

  2. I’d just like to make the point that Northcote has been Labour in the recent past, is traditionally considered a bellwether seat, and while Jonathan (Big Tobacco) Coleman has a sizeable majority at the moment, he’s also up to his neck in the Dotcom fiasco and might have some serious explaining to do come Sept 15th. Labours Richard Hills is an excellent young man, very well known in the community through his work as a youth health worker and a member of the Kaipatiki Local Board. Expect him to really push Coleman hard if there’s any sort of swing towards Labour.

    • Yes Anne Hartley of Labour held that seat: In office
      1999–2005 Succeeded by Jonathan Coleman …Anne then list 2005–2008.
      I went to the meeting at the Beachhaven Ratepayers Hall last night (8 Sept) the hall was standing room only and boy did we all give Coleman a hard time (as I heard he got last election).
      Richard standing this year is a big plus for Labour and I agree with Nick, I hope you will update your blog, then we can share share share with recommendations for those unsure.
      Labour supporters were very strong and Richard got huge applause for Labour policies.

      The Green polly was fine, but of course they were only after the Party vote.
      ACT polly was mocked, especially by me.
      Education and student debt was a big concern. A teacher raised the issue of violence towards teachers also being an issue, the left agreed that the socio-economics of being poor was having an effect. Coleman said there is no excuse and having teenagers depressed was a rubbish reason, the crowd went angry on him !!!

      So perhaps re-think your suggestion and all vote Labour for Northcote, Labour could regain the seat this time.

  3. As a Green supporter I agree with this. Auck central should definitely be a strategic vote as the Green party only want a party vote. I vote today myself and will vote strategically in line with what Martyn also advises here.

  4. Actually in Clutha-Southland there was a lot of nats not happy with Todd’s selection and might vote for Liz Craig the Labour candidate. If there is ever a chance the left could win the seat it’s this election so all the left should vote for Liz

    • Liz Craig and Rachel Goldsmith need to make a deal as to which of them gets the anti-Dirty Politics vote. If they split it, Big Tobacco wins (along with Dirty Politics).

  5. Otaki could be closer than you expect. Nathan Guy (spit) is not popular in some quarters and Labour’s Rob McCann is running a very good campaign. A few votes from Green and IMP supporters might just make the difference.

    • Yes! I agree this could be a closer run thing than people realise. There are lots of older folks in this electorate that could well be turned right off Guy in the ensuing Dirty Politics scandal. Labour could do well, and more support would be good.

  6. HI Martyn, Interested in the rationale for Nanaia Mahuta in Hauraki-Waikato instead of Mana candidate Angeline Greensill – who came very close to unseating Nanaia a couple of elections back.

    • Nanaia Mahuta probably has enough support to win. But it is possible that Mana getting a lot of electorate seats could create an overhang favouring the left – if Mana doesn’t get many seats allocated from party vote.

  7. Maurice Williamson needs to be taught a lesson. May be all vote for the Labour candidate there (?).

    Same way, Key’s majority needs to be drastically dented. Not sure what is the best option there.

    Any ideas about the above two?

  8. So you’re recommending Mana in IkaroaRawhiti over incumbents Labour? Doesnt that risk splitting the vote and handing it to Maori?

  9. Top idea .A good Labour /Green/National vote for Nationals Paul Goldsmith in Epsom will shut Act out of Epsom and they are unlikely to poll over 5% in the party vote .Remember Keys still has the option to pull Goldsmith ,which makes sense .Why have oneNat MP when you can get 3 or 4 Act MPs in to help gain the balance of power.If I were Key having Goldsmith remain in the race is a potential liability Id be keen to avoid .

  10. @ Gazza . Jesus no . I’m in that electorate and I just couldn’t do it . I’m changing me address to vote Labour / Greens somewhere else .
    Besides , I’ve already told the Nat’ cock here to go fuck himself . It would just seem wrong to now vote for him , no matter the stratagem . Death before Dishonour and all that . Great list MB .

    • CountryBoy, you’ve GOT TO HOLD YOUR NOSE and just be smart about your vote. It’s like letting someone you don’t like through a door before you, because you know there’s a bucket of water sitting on top of it. And if everyone does it, we will win! So how much of a revenge would that be?

  11. Side note on “Open votes” — They are opportunities for messaging, free of tactical constraints.
    They tell parties something about what people want, and affect the amount of support parties can claim for or against policies.
    Only no-confidence votes provide no alternative direction to the status quo.

    You can stick with your preferred party, to best communicate your values.
    But you might also consider looking at the left as a whole to see where a bit of moral support is useful. For example, do you think Labour is better under Cunliffe? Then better numbers will give the party confidence to stick with it. Or perhaps Greens are gaining traction in your electorate and you could help it to the tipping point where “safe” voters might be willing to jump next election.

    Democracy works best when we invest every vote with the most value it can have.

  12. Considering the poverty in Northland, I’m amazed its a National stronghold.

    I wish McGillicudy Serious were still around for protest votes. I liked their main policy, disband parliament.

    • Logically, yes it is amazing Lara. I think it comes down to a combination of farmers plus the fact that those worst off here also unfortunately make up a disproportionately high number of those who are either not enrolled or don’t vote. And that has suited National just fine for years.

      • Another factor is that a substantial portion of the poorer population in the electorate are enrolled in Te Tai Tokerau. They at least get to elect a representative with the wellbeing of the people of Northland at the heart of his politics

      • and poverty in Northland is more concentrated in Maori communities, many of whom will be on the Maori roll not the general.

        so yeah, that leaves the farmers and retired people as a large group here, and they do tend to vote National.

  13. Rangitkei:

    You are right Martyn, it is a national stronghold but if voters in that electorate vote Labour: well you never know. There are a few townships left and a few farmers are starting to wake up to the fact that their children and grandchildren will not be able to afford to buy a farm in the future with Shonkey and his mates selling them all to overseas corporate companies.

    Labour also is fielding a very good candidate so you never know!

    • Rangitikei used to be a kind of rebel electorate that would vote against the trend of the day. It elected Bruce Beetham of Social Credit a few times and gave good support to the Alliance later on. It also went against the trend in 1984 during the Labour landslide by voting National. Labour also came within a whiff of winning it in 1999 and National only held on by special votes. However it has become much more tory over the years and I wouldn’t give much hope to it being any different this year. Sorry if I burst any bubbles, just calling it as I see it.

  14. I wouldn’t worry about Don Nicholson. He came last in the 2011 election. Rachel Goldsmith thoroughly beat him. The local farmers thought it was a hoot that the punk girl greenie Rachel trumped him.

  15. Wairarapa
    Vote Kieran McAnulty Labour
    Yes it is a National stronghold but the Nat candidate is new, previous MP retired, lives out of the area and is losing some support as a result. The Labour candidate is running a very strong campaign and the recent addition of Ron Mark (NZF) in the race could split the National vote.

    • Dead right. Ron Marks as local mayor seems an obvious protest vote for disillusioned Nats so Labour candidate is the one here plus he is trying hard.

    • @Robert Atack:
      This is off-topic (excuse me) but:
      Yes to the banning of 1080!

      We could just let the wild cats and the owls eat the stoats and the rats – that is their food of choice.
      We could grow conservation of the owls rather than dropping 1080 into our native bush.
      We could get DOC to grow more birds and wildlife, rather than killing them with poison pellets.

  16. I have a bold suggestion. In the National Party strongholds why not vote for a Democrats for Social Credit candidate if there is one standing in yours. If you ever look at their policies (hardly anyone ever does) some of them are quite bold, and at the cutting edge. These guys deserve a bit more coverage than they get, but they lack any charismatic front man/woman and are seen as old fuddy duddies. But why not? Could be seen as a protest vote in a electorate where being a Labour or Greens supporter is akin to being a devil’s disciple. If you cast a Labour or Greens vote everyone would hate you, but a vote for DFSC – who would care?

  17. Hey, since Tamaki was featured in the Dirty Politics story, how about a “stick it to them” recommendation for us! You never know…

  18. If the Labour lead coalition is successful, I’d like to see them implement single transferable voting in electorates to make them a more accurate reflection of the whole electorate’s likes (or dislikes). That way we can avoid the spoiler effect (I’m looking at you Green Party). I don’t understand why this doesn’t get any attention in any media here. Surely the days of FPP a well behind us and we can have proportional representation at electorate level as well as Parliamentary level. I’m guessing this sort of electoral shake up would require a majority vote in the house though; something National and its cronies will deal a quick death to given they benefit from having electorates with a dubious “majority”.

  19. Great guide… I was living in Christchurch Central for the 2011 election, and seeing Brendan Burns (L) lose to Wagner (N) by 47 votes was brutal, especially given that 2321 voters went for David Moorhouse (G) (Green Party vote 4456). Make the most of both those votes kids!

  20. Interested in the rationale behind the Tāmaki Makaurau selection. I don’t know much about Peeni Henare, but I know that Marama Davidson of the Greens will make an awesome MP. An engaging and inspirational person, I’ve been lucky enough to talk to her and it is a great experience.

    Is the Labour candidate recommendation perhaps a way of avoiding a split vote situation leading to a Maori Party win? Keen to hear your thoughts Bomber.

    • I think you’re probably right. Davidson, although a great candidate, probably has an outside chance at winning, so best bet on the winning horse to avoid disappointment. She’ll be in parliament on the list anyway. I think the point is to send a message to the Maori Party that their “seat at the table” for the token scraps it got, actually propped up a far-right government. I admire the Maori Party’s idealism and many of their policies, but sometimes you have to draw the line. I guess Hone drew the line and stepped back over it out of principle.

  21. You got Otaki wrong wrong WRONG! It is not a National stronghold and was held by Labour before they set up Darren Hughes for a fall ….Labour has worked there arse off to oust Nathan Guy! Labour intends to win in Otaki and stick it up Guy and his Pig Farming! The community is up in arms!

  22. Suggest that some of the comments are taken on board for a revised list and this post goes up weekly to the 20th (or maybe 19th if that’d break the rules).
    Oops – just seen the link at top right – so it’ll stay there but I think it could do with a few revisions.

  23. Most of these electorates are actually completely irrelevant to the stated aim of ‘changing the government’.

    whether we manage to change the government or not is largely about how many seats each party gets, and for any party that gets over the 5% threshold, only the party vote determines how many seats they get. It’s only in seats where parties that are under the threshold have a chance that the electorate vote will influence their strength in parliament – ie Epsom, East Coast Bays, Te Tai Tokerau, Ohariu and maybe some of the other Maori electorates.

    Having said that, it’s still worth tactical voting to send a message about certain candidates, or try and keep tobacco lobbyists out of parliament, or something like that.

  24. Thank you for the vote of confidence from Marcus and we are not old fuddie duddies, we get kept out of the media because the media and the banks have the same people on their boards and they don’t want anyone finding out the truth about money…because there would be a revolt before breakfast (as Henry Ford said). Stephnie de Ryter is amazing and brilliant but can’t get on TV. They won’t even put Democrats for Social Credit in the polls so no one even knows that we are running. We have been contesting elections for 60 years and have 30 candidates in this years election. If you are a capable thinker, a good orator, and care about this beautiful country of ours, then become a DSC member and consider running for parliament next term. Its much more fun that you would expect.

  25. This post isn’t very obvious on The Daily Blog page, Martyn.

    why don’t you make it a top story in your main column ? Bearded Git on The Standard Open Mike has something similar – not as lengthy.

    But either yours, or his, needs to be a bit more obvious. Please.

  26. Perhaps I’m a bit slow, but what are voters in the district (below) being advised to do when you say ‘open vote’? Are you saying there’s no hope in hell of any Nats in this area being sent packing? Is there no candidate even with an outside chance of winning?

    Bay of Plenty – National strong hold. Open vote.

    • Basically, yes. National support in BoP is too high to touch with tactical voting, even with all opposing votes combined.

      Also there are no specific tactical goals at stake in that electorate.

      But remember that it’s Party Votes that give overall numbers in Parliament, so if it weren’t Todd Muller it would be a list candidate. Silver lining: one less from the upper ranks.

      Labour is clearly the only game in town for progs, so I’d join in holding the line so there’s something for shifts to work with.

  27. Helensville boundary has changed since 2011, annexing areas less Nat friendly. My pick is Laila Harre because she’s had most publicity, and has personally taken the fight directly to Key’s electorate, so random and spontaneous opposition to Key might be expected to coalesce around her.

Comments are closed.