Why Key can’t punish Judith Collins till after the election and the new factional war inside National


The mainstream NZ political punditry are still not understanding what is happening inside National. So intent are they are on reinforcing their ‘Labour is riven by factional infighting’ narrative they are completely ignoring what is erupting within the National Party.

Judith Collins bizarre attack on Katie Bradford is far more Machiavellian than is being acknowledged and it shows how weak and vulnerable Key will be to Collins all the way up to the election.

What many in the mainstream media political punditry have utterly missed is how Collins had all her next generation acolytes denied candidacies for National Party seats. In one case, head office reset the selection process to deny Judith her choice. That’s a vast sea change in power dynamics once the Oravida scandal became public.

Maurice Williamson’s dismissal for a corrupt call to heavy the cops for a donor however means Key can’t sack Collins. Losing one Minister before an election is a mistake, two becomes unforgivable.

Judith knows she will be demoted if Key wins, but she also knows she will be best placed to take the leadership off Key if National loses. Attacking Katie Bradford plays wonderfully with the hard reactionary rump of the National Party because of who Katie’s mother is, Judith is going to spend the next 4 months grandstanding and committing all sorts of Crusher-esque crimes against decency and taste.

Selwyn Manning has brilliantly named the factions within National on RadioLive as follows, the Whaleoil-Collins faction, the Matthew Hooton-Bridges faction and the Joyce-Kiwiblog faction.

You will note Slater has been writing constant smear attacks on Bridges and the Twitter war that exploded between Jordan Williams and Matthew Hooton last night has to be read to be believed.

National Party strategists don’t believe the hype of the flawed landline opinion polls the mainstream media breathlessly use, they understand how truly difficult a 3rd term win will be and that tension has triggered fault lines within National.

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  1. On the money Martyn. Slater is in the pay of Collins and possibly Paula Bennett, too. His hitjobs on Bridges are embarrassingly transparent and, particularly for Slater, poorly executed. As is his laughable defence of the increasingly indefensible Collins.

  2. Not looking quite so rosy for the Nats now, is it? Their smug arrogance has been taken down a notch and they are now faced with the reality that they might actually have to get off their rounded asses and do some work to win this election. Interesting how John Key was defending the integrity of parliamentary journalists following Judith Collins’ latest brainfade. He said that by and large they do a good job. What he meant (but he didn’t say) was that by and large they are National Party sycophants and it must be very painful for him to watch Collins putting this symbiotic relationship in jeopardy with her “up yours” attitude. Journalist do not like their colleagues being hassled. John Key’s leadership qualities are in serious question here: when the pressure is on he baulks. This is a government falling to pieces as we watch. I will be watching the resumption of Parliament tomorrow with interest.

    • “This is a government falling to pieces as we watch. ”

      Huh? Where do you dream this stuff up?

      This is the most popular Govt, with the most popular PM in recent history. This is also the Govt that has come the closest to ruling on it’s own under MMP.

      And your comments about journo’s are just plain ignorant. A bit like all the right wing bloggers who complain the media are all biased in favour of the left.


      • Key is an almost manufactured media kit set PM, comes complete with the legend of the kid living in a state house who got filthy rich (he drops this into conversations from time to time), been an everyday guy, as far as multi millionaires goes, by mispronouncing words, planking, gangnam style dancing and appears light-hearted.

        What has been ignored by the same creators of this legend who think we all lap up this shit is that his ways of doing “business” in the shadows and his questionable explanations for doing so are being mimicked by his increasingly arrogant MP’s, only they are starting to get into trouble doing it.

        His government contains a control freak entourage that micromanage everything in the media to ensure the bad news is spun into something it isn’t and the good news is at the forefront along with plenty of sideshow diversions when things get sticky. Living under Keys rule has become one of constantly questioning what is real and what isn’t and what to believe, it has redefined the term “Gaslighting”!

        The worst of all this is we have a country that is only superficially moving ahead. In fact without flogging off our assets (Nationals coup d’etat financial policy, God help us) we would still be in deficit for the 6th year running and we may even be that now.

        All the friendly non questioning media he and his well-connected colleagues have cultivated over the last 5 and a half years, up until late anyway, have ignored the fact we are a very risky one trick pony of an economy, horribly indebted in more ways than one with a number of time bombs just below the surface and no real answers for the future.

    • “[Key] said that by and large [the media] do a good job.”

      Didn’t he just take a swipe at them a few months ago? I forget the comment, unfortunately. I just remember he was annoyed about some bad press and decided to blame them instead of his own (or his party’s) actions.

  3. “National Party strategists don’t believe the hype of the flawed landline opinion polls ”

    You mean like the Roy Morgan poll?

    And have you seen the RM today?

    “New Zealand real unemployment falls 0.5% to 8% (lowest since 2008) and NZ under-employment down 1% to 10.3%”

    The only thing that will stop national bolting this next election is voter apathy and complacency.

    • As Hughes put it – I’ve known rivers ancient as the world and older than the flow of human blood in human veins – this one is called de Nile.

    • The only thing that will stop national bolting this next election is voter apathy and complacency.
      My understanding is it’s the reverse that is true – motivating South Auckland to vote is the big ask – when they turn out transNational will take a hit – voter apathy is a loser for Labour.

    • The only thing that will stop national bolting this next election is voter apathy and complacency
      You mean, the only thing that will keep National in…….

    • Intrinsicvalue says:
      May 5, 2014 at 12:07 pm

      “National Party strategists don’t believe the hype of the flawed landline opinion polls ”

      You mean like the Roy Morgan poll?

      And have you seen the RM today?

      “New Zealand real unemployment falls 0.5% to 8% (lowest since 2008) and NZ under-employment down 1% to 10.3%”

      So you admit that unemployment is at 8%?!

      And that prior to 2008, it was lower still?

      My word, you are learning, eh, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsincvalue?

  4. With not a lot of assistance from them, the Opposition parties can sit back and watch the Key led National government implode on itself, though deceit, lies, infighting, corruption, cover ups etc, causing its own demise.

    Kiwi voters are on to it. This is going to be the easiest election for Labour/Greens/Mana and possibly NZ First to win and form a coalition.

    • I completely agree with your first paragraph but I don’t think Kiwi voters are that on to it, otherwise the 5 years of malaise we have endured under National would be showing up in the polls by now. There really are still people who think because John Key is a millionaire he must know what he doing. Its bloody sad!

  5. You do know that Roy Morgan poll cellphones now which have been tracking the same as other polls?

    • I don’t know the figures but I suspect more employed people would own a cellphone than those who are unemployed and struggling to put food on the table.

      • Yogi that may seem the case, but that is NOT what Martyn and his cohorts argue. They argue that the polls are not accurate because poor people don’t have landlines, ONLY cellphones. It’s bollocks.

        • IV,
          I would guess that if they can’t afford a cheap cellphone there’s no way they could afford the more expensive option of a land line, which is what you claim “Martyn and his cohorts argue”.
          Am I dazed and confused or is your point a lead balloon?

  6. Can someone tell me where the Maurice WIlliamson story originated? Was it Police informing media?
    Or was it National knee-capping MW to distance itself from “gay rainbow over Pakuranga”?

  7. I don’t follow all this political party crap much, but it seems to me that National will be able to blunder its way to a win in the coming election because no matter what they do they will be seen and performing one way or the other. The sad thing is that Kiwis are going to wait for the great whiteish band of Labour to suddenly come up with something and save us all.
    I don’t think that is going to happen. Labour have strangely got nothing to offer. They are not going to appear (excep on the Ballet Paper) the best way for Labour to cause National to lose will be if Labour completely disband and withdraw from the scene and FAST.
    Then we can vote for all sorts of NZFirst, Internet, Greens, Maori, Act, Mana, Christians and Liquorice Allsorts and National will be lucky to hold thirty seats, and then we may get close to have a Government that represents the PEOPLE.

  8. Re the media turning against the govt – given the Herald got raided by the police and still supports the govt, I don’t hold out much hope there.

  9. Judith Collins took an axe and gave herself forty whacks,
    When she saw what she had done she gave John Key forty one.
    Pansy Wong is long gone whilst Judith Collins carrys on.

    Key should be the one with the axe.

  10. quote:

    “National’s ‘Cabinet Club’ is cash-for-access

    The Green Party has today revealed details about the ‘Cabinet Club’, an exclusive club run by the National Party, where members pay a large annual subscription to attend meetings that give them guaranteed access to government Ministers.

    “This National Party has put our democracy up for sale,” said Green Party Co-leader Dr Russel Norman.

    “Once again, we’re seeing breaches in the thin line between money and political influence in the National Party.

    “While many of the details of the Cabinet Club are secret, documents suggest that Ministers are speaking at these meetings in their ministerial capacity on their portfolio areas.

    “It’s not ok for the governing political party to provide access to Ministers of the Crown in return for donations to the party.

    “In a democracy, access to Ministers shouldn’t depend on how much money you donate to the governing party.

    “It’s exactly because of instances like this, and recent behaviour of Ministers like Judith Collins, that we have proposed a ministerial disclosure regime to improve the transparency and accountability of government.

    “Ministers are in positions of significant power and influence. It’s important that the public get to know who is gaining access to Ministers.

    “Every time the Green Party has proposed better rules around lobbying and access, the National Party has rejected it. It’s easy to see why they don’t want additional scrutiny.” end quote

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