National’s Support Collapses Over Collins+Williamson Scandals – Roy Morgan Poll

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Roy-Morgan-Poll-May-2014The Latest Roy Morgan Poll is out indicating National’s support collapsing by 6 points and the Labour-Green bloc up by 5.5 points.

The Roy Morgan poll can be viewed on my LiveNews.co.nz site.

The pollsters state:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large fall in support for National (42.5%, down 6%) now well behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance (45.5%, up 5.5%).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1% (unchanged), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support has improved considerably for the Opposition with the Labour Party up 2.5% to 31%, the Greens up 3% to 14.5%, New Zealand First 6% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (unchanged). Support for the Internet Party is now at a record high 1.5% (up 0.5%), seemingly at the expense of the Conservative Party of NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the potential Labour/Greens alliance would be elected.

This poll suggests National’s brand and credibility has been damaged by the Judith Collins’ Oravida conflict of interest scandal, and, perceptions that National is a government preoccupied with cronyism and sleaze.

National’s month from hell has clearly been made worse by the Maurice Williamson resignation after he was exposed for having contacted Police requesting a review of an investigation into an alleged act of domestic violence – the accused being a wealthy National Party donor and acquaintance of Williamson’s.

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Revelations that National has been running a Cabinet Club (revealed yesterday by the Greens) will likely accentuate National’s demise, leading swing voters to reassess their party loyalties.

The Cabinet Club is ‘an exclusive club run by the National Party, where members pay a large annual subscription to attend meetings that give them guaranteed access to government Ministers.’

Can the National Party brand be repaired? Its support looks likely to fall more before it plateaus, especially considering the Roy Morgan poll was taken between April 21 – May 4 – so it only slightly picked up the reaction of Judith Collins’ victimisation of respected press gallery journalist, Katie Bradford.

In one month, since the Roy Morgan April 17 poll, National has seen its lion’s share of support collapse from what was then said to be National’s (then on 48.5%) biggest lead over Labour/ Greens (then on 40%) since July 2013.

Labour and the Greens have since sustained a turn around of fortunes after being seen as a credible government in waiting bloc.

Labour’s monetary policy has certainly attracted respect among economists, the business fraternity and the centre-left largely for the reasons highlighted in Chris Trotter’s piece titled: The Talented Mr Parker.

Labour needed a circuit-breaker after the damaging press it received in the wake of Shane Jones’ resignation. It certainly got this on the economics front, and also gained acknowledgement for the principled stance asserted by Grant Robertson over the Oravida scandal – and for his detailed and skilful handling of the affair.

If the opposition bloc can maintain this style of credibility it may influence a remaining 6% of uncommitted potential voters to consider a change in government.

It shouldn’t be too hard considering the level of government debt National has racked up since coming into office – up 442% from $10.2b in 2008 to $54b in 2014, with mortgage interest rates on the climb, and the current account deficit set to blow out once again.

Labour has led the charge on this with respect to the economy, regional development, and core social provision areas. The Greens are sticking to their knitting pointing to a progressive environmentally sustainable option. Mana is solidifying its representation and leadership of New Zealand’s low income earners and politically estranged classes, and the Union movement is assuring us it has a plan to roll out a record number of voters come September 20th.

But what the country needs now is the next roll out of solution-based policies.

Labour in particular, on 31.5%, has a way to climb before assuming a respectable mid-30s position. From here it will need to produce a fully costed and progressive alternative budget next week to offset National’s chance of convincing punters its economic governance outweighs its penchant for greasing the hands of its wealthy donors – a practice made more awful considering its want to dish out a large helping of arrogance to the average Kiwi voter, and its lust to put the boot in to those fallen on hard times.

That said however, and acknowledging the challenges, as Labour leader David Cunliffe said some months ago… It’s game on!

126 COMMENTS

  1. Ahhh, the sleepy hobbits are stirring from their slumber…

    I expect four things to happen;

    1. Collins will “resign for health reasons”,

    2. National will release a new bene-bashing policy to attempt more deflection,

    3. Nats will fall to 40% to 42% in the next month or two,

    4. Nats will steal one of Labour’s policies.

    • Yes. I noticed how she slipped in that she’d been sick. I agree. She is very sick. It’s her head, and her brain. Or maybe it’s menopause.
      Now she has planted the seed for a reason to step down (get the boot), whether she just made it up on the spot or not.

      Maybe she can try to get a sickness benefit off WINZ.

      Opinion.

      • “Or maybe it’s menopause”

        Come on, this is Judith Collins we’re talking about. We could throw a thousand different insults at her ideology, her beliefs and her policies…no need for sexism

    • “Nats will fall to 40%…”

      Bear in mind, Frank, that National’s current poll support is almost certainly over-stated. Both National and Right Bloc support were consistently over-stated (month after month) through the 18 months leading up to both the 2008 and 2011 general elections.

      This latest Roy Morgan puts the Left on 48% and the Right on 45% (something more akin to the support-levels we saw in the second half of last year, when the Left were at their apex). So, given that Right support is historically over-stated and Left support slightly under-stated, I’d suggest this latest Roy Morgan means something closer to Left 49%, Right 42%.

      Now, what were John Armstrong and Jane Clifton and Audrey Young and Tracy Watkins saying, again, about the meaningless of Oravida and Crony Capitalism to the average voter ? And how there’s precious little anger at the present government ? And that National’s poll ratings haven’t changed since the last election ? And how it’s enjoying “a second honeymoon” (Armstrong) with the voters ? And how “Life on Planet Key couldn’t be rosier” (Clifton) ?

  2. Oh dear Selwyn, I though you at least were above the left wing spin.

    “…with mortgage interest rates on the climb…”
    Yet still far below the 11% under Labour.

    “and the current account deficit set to blow out once again.”
    Ah, no that’s not what is being predicted at all. The CA deficit is currently half what it was under Labour.

    “Revelations that National has been running a Cabinet Club (revealed yesterday by the Greens) will likely accentuate National’s demise, leading swing voters to reassess their party loyalties.”
    Nope, not now that word is out Labour and Greens do and did exactly the same thing.

    Also, you fail to highlight the simple fact that a National/NZF block is still well ahead of the Labour Greens. Despite all the lies, all the bluster Labour have come up with in recent weeks.

    The tide turned back to national in Parliament today. Key eviscerated Cunliffe and Norman, turning their hypocrisy squarely back on them.

      • And as usual, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue leaves out this salient point in the linked article he refers to;

        However, as interest rates are expected to rise in coming years, higher interest costs on foreign borrowing would likely see the deficit widen in the future.

        Always check Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue’s citations. He is usually to be found less than upfront with whatever story he is presenting.

        • This is just like the climate change debate Frank. All you have is conjecture and spin. Interest rates today are far less than they were when natonal took office. Fact.

          • Doesn’t matter, if the rates are going up during the run up to the election it’s bad for the government. Something I’m sure you know.

            Still I guess when your job is to be a professional troll you wouldn’t be indulging in constructive debate would you?

            • Of course it matters. it goes to the heart of economic competence. In 2008 interest rates were high despite the economy being in recession. That is nothing short of economic incompetence, just like the over 1bn$ deficit (2008/09), and the 10 years of forecast deficits it also bequethed.

      • @IV:

        Key has that destruction of everything in his path built into him. Doesn’t mean he’s right when he picks on others.
        He has abused his position by selling out our country to the Chinese, increasing the amount of children living BELOW the poverty line, and picking on beneficiaries.

        Now the business with the UN coming up in September too. That’s the business when Keys government, in particular Collins, has to inform the UN why ACC claimants cannot get proper access to justice, and why they too are treated as if they are low hanging swamp dwellers.

        Enough is enough. Even the wealthy are overwhelmed with the gross arrogance and ignorance of this government towards our most vulnerable people.

        Soon you will be their only supporter!

        Opinion and belief.

        • That UN report is due out on 22nd September – so it won’t affect the election.
          At a Cabinet Club meeting I talked to someone who has that on authority.

      • I guess that, like Key, IV never learned debating. Good debaters concentrate on matter – poor ones rely exclusively on manner.

        Cunliffe raised the issue of serious corruption in the National cabinet. Key was defensive and evasive. The public will not be persuaded by such nonsense – they require a considered response and candid, detailed explanations. The Key government is on trial here, not answering is as productive as making ad-libs during a criminal prosecution.

        Were it not for the partiality of the speaker Key would have been sent out. This braying chorus of jackasses is supposed to be a government?

        The pathetic decline of NZ on every major indicator since these morons took power is a serious matter, and this government has many questions to answer – being a smartarse may impress adolescents like IV – but a good government would be delighted to answer factually and in great detail.

        • Cunliffe raised nothing serious at all. And until he names his secret donors, he looks more of a turkey every time he stands up.

          • Who are the 21 anonymous “donors” at Antoine’s Restaurant who paid $5000 each totalling $105,000 to have dinner with Key?

            Oh and then Antoine’s by pure coincidence donated $105,000 to National. It all makes so much sense now!

            • Ah, but the difference is that Key has never been sanctimonious about donations, whereas Cunliffe??

        • Factually? You mean like the lies Robertson and Mallard told the day before? Or the fact that Labour and the Greens run their own fundraising schemes?

    • IV, oh boy. Where to start…

      It isn’t left wing spin mate, it is the real world.

      Mortgage interest rates are being used by National to take the disposable spare cash out of the pockets of Kiwi families, so as to cool down inflationary pressures. I have to say, Parker’s plan to direct variable deposits into individuals’ Kiwisaver accounts is clever on an economic front, and political. It asserts common ground between a Labour-led government and NZ First. As does the commitment to address the precarious current account deficit, which despite the GFC and record low interest rates National hasn’t been able to get it down below what Labour achieved in the 2000s during an appreciating domestic economy… All the ingredients are in evidence now for the ca to balloon out again. Let’s hope others of your persuasion wake up to that fact (as the OECD has been cautioning on since June/July last year).

      I don’t expect you to agree with these policies nor this premise, but in the real world these ideas add up to a solution-based game plan. And it is that that resinates with the Kiwi voter.

      By comparison, National has run out of solutions. It appears bereft of new ideas, and preoccupied with chin-rubbing and not knowing what to do with its rogue ministers.

      You rest your argument on a belief that NZ First will destroy itself to save National. But unlike the 1996 experience, NZF and National have little policy in common these days. The closest NZ First is likely to go is the cross-benches. And that leaves National well short.

      As a very well positioned National Party insider said to me tonight, the Roy Morgan Poll didn’t even pick up the free-fall of the last four days. The word inside your tent is there is more ground to be lost before next week’s Budget.

      • Selwyn what I look at is hard facts.

        Today we have an economy with lower interest rates, lower inflation, lower debt, and the same level of employment as what Labour bequethed. This Govt has turned a decade of deficits into a surplus inside 6 years. Those are the facts.

        As to the polls, your comments are hilarious. For months contributors to this site have been bagging the polls as inaccurate, and now you claim them as gospel. The polls will move up and down, as they have done for some time, but what Key showed in Parliament yesterday is that once the parties hit the campaign, Cunliffes’ and Norman’s hypocrisy will be cruelly exposed.

        • I don’t make a habit of repeating myself, but it seems necessary here.

          Economy: improvements are regionally aligned rather than domestically stimulated.

          Lower interest rates: IV go check out a selection of banks and what they have sketched on their blackboards… they are being hiked up and for the reasons I stated in the post.

          Lower inflation, well the National-led Government is using hiking interest rates to take spare cash out of the domestic economy, this, by degrees, causes downward pressure on inflation and, as a consequence of the higher interest rates causing an appreciating accumulation of debt, the current account deficit will widen.

          Lower debt, oh my God you are pushing the spin envelope. The fact is… government debt (trying to pause for breath here)… National has racked this up since coming into office – Government debt is up 442% from $10.2b in 2008 to $54b in 2014.

          The surplus you refer to is an attempt to mask the record level of government debt National has racked up, it will take decades to address that mountain.

          These are the facts.

          As to the polls, the Roy Morgan has been most respected within this fraternity due to its methodology including both landlines and cellphones. And for that reason it is the Roy Morgan Poll that I watch the most for trends.

          And yes, the polls will move up and down, such is the nature of an oscillating public sphere.

          Conclusion: it’s been a month from hell for National, largely due to its brand being tainted by cronyism and sleaze… and add to that an opposition bloc that has been busy thinking through a solution-based policy plan.

          The good people now have options. How they use their vote is what we must respect.

          • Selwyn I had given you some credit for a modicum of economic literacy. It seems that was misplaced.

            Economy
            The current growth is widespread (note the latest growth rates in Otago and the Bay of Plenty) and sustainable. They are being supported by record export receipts and record levels of private sector investment. That is a far cry from the high spending, low growth economy Labour were running in 2008.

            Interest Rates
            Go back and check the interest rates in 2008. You will find they were double digit. Now try explaining how that was possible when the economy was in recession.

            Inflation
            You appear to concede this one.

            Debt
            I assume from your comments that you do not support the rebuild of Christchurch, or supporting the most vulnerable during Labours recession or the GFC?
            I also take it you do not know that NZ’s current account deficit is half what it was under Labour?

            The lefts economic performance was about as poor as their hypocrisy over corruption claims is obvious.

            • ‘A modicum of economic literacy’ sad to say the feeling is mutual.

              Economy: Where I referred to regional, I was referring to Asia Pacific influences, including trade related shifts both multilateral and bilateral – not NZ regional.

              Interest rates: You seem to misunderstand, so I will clarify, I’m not here to defend nor argue the merits or otherwise taken by Labour in the 2000s. I am referring in the post to the economic environment we are emerged within now. If you understand economics, and that’s a big if, you will know there are multiple levers causing interest rates to hike up now… the OCR tool being primary among them.

              I’d just add in general, where comparisons to the then and now are relevant I’m quite comfortable making them. For example, little has been written about the low-Kiwi-dollar regime Cullen facilitated in his first term. The prospect of travelling abroad was daunting as the dollar was so low against the US we almost felt like prisoners in our own country. Cullen argued it would stimulate an export-led recovery – which it did in part. But this element of the early 2000s economics has little comparative value to right now, here, today, apart from theorising that the low dollar then was a precursor to trade surpluses experienced through the span of Labour-led 2000s, and an explanation perhaps that our high dollar patterns now explain why value-added manufacturer exporters are finding it challenging while raw commodity exports are strong.

              But hey, your National minders are comfortable with a consumer-led domestic economy, just hike up GST again and all will be sweet right? Add to that more OCR increases to ease demand and you lot are no more than 21st Century Muldoonists.

              But I digress.

              Inflation: My view is the economic tools used to keep inflation under control should be multiple so as to spread the ‘remedy’ over a broader base of income earners and investors. Relying solely on mortgage holders to ease inflation is ridiculous in the extreme and down-right exploitative. That, Mr IV, will cause a concerning imbalance in the economy and will prove to be politically unsustainable.

              Debt: So you are conceding the record breaking government debt mountain exists now… (Looks up to the sky and whispers ‘there must be a God!’). My view, for what it is worth, is the National-led Government failed when it refused to establish a levy to address the urgency of the Christchurch rebuild. That was an ideological response at a time when the entire country wanted to pitch in and help Cantabrians. Your minders should be held to account for that arrogance. If a levy was put in place, ChCh people would not be suffering the indignities that they are currently enduring. Actually, it is an insult that your kind use ChCh as a pawn to argue your economic incompetencies.

              Current Account Deficit: IV, you must be on the payroll. No one can be so dumbed down on this as you appear. The current account deficit is now no lower than the low point under Labour’s tenure. Labour was amiss at not addressing its root causes back then. At least it is now creating solutions to address it (watch this space). Which is more than I would say for your minders who are bereft of vision, solutions, nor willpower.

              • Economy
                So what? Trade related shifts have to be exploited, and by firms benefitting from supportive Govt. policies, like low interest and inflation, low Govt spending, etc. National have delivered where Labour failed.

                Interest Rates
                You seem to be arguing in circles, so let’s simplify. Interest rates in 2011 were around 11% yet the economy was in recession. They are now just over half that, and the economy is experiencing solid and sustainable growth. I’ll leave you to ponder the incompetence of a Finance Minister who left NZ with a decade of deficits, an economy in recession, and high interest rates.

                Inflation
                The OCR has not caused ‘imbalances’, neither has it been politically unsustainable. The fact is that it is a proven price stabiliser. Labour’s big tool is unproven, has already been exposed as being inequitable to low income earners, and is nothing more than an ‘idea’. A brain fart.

                Debt
                You clearly have lost any grip on reality. The Chrstchurch rebuild has already added around $16bn to the external debt. Your suggestion of sucking yet more disposable income out of the economy during a recession is plain madness.

                Current Account Deficit
                My only response will be to give you the facts, seeing as you clearly live under a mushroom.
                The CA deficit to Dec 2013 was 3.4% of GDP. In 2008, that figure was 8.8%.

                You can talk all you like about ‘vision’, but national’s getting the job done, where Labour failed miserably.

                • Selwyn…on the poll itself, and your musings about inside info from national, Calire Trevett made some interesting observations today about Labours internal polling:

                  “As for Labour, Grant Robertson wanted Cunliffe’s job last September. Last week, things were so fragile he might have been in with a chance. List MPs were doing the numbers as internal polling showed them diving into the low to mid-20s and Cunliffe with stratospherically high negative ratings.

                  One poll was reported to have Labour only five or six points ahead of the Greens. Emerging from the election as effectively a medium-sized party is no way to celebrate Labour’s centenary. The prospect those List MPs could be looking in the Situations Vacant come October was focusing minds.”

                  http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11251362

                  Isn’t a week a long time in politics.

                  • That internal poll you referred to rings a bell.

                    One of National’s insiders txted me on Monday evening seeding the same line that Claire appears to have pasted in her piece.

                    One thing, as far as we can see UMR isn’t matching what is being suggested here. But if it was as is claimed, there is a huge discrepancy to what the Roy Morgan Poll has identified.

                    Also, Grant Robertson is a star leadership contender. I’m not a Labour Party member, but it seems to me that party is fortunate to have two people clearly able to lead it and the country – just as National has its options i.e.; Key, if he was removed or hit by a bus, has his replacement in Joyce.

                    But it is interesting, to say the least, the seeded information Claire pasted into her piece was being pushed by the Judith Collins camp right at the time she was most exposed, her leadership ambitions somewhat in tatters, and appearing to all in sundry as angry as a caged wild cat.

                    Lovely.

                • Oh and let’s not forget employment.

                  The latest labour force participation rate is 69.3%…the highest ever!

                  • Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue continues to present his mis-leading statements as “facts”. They are anything but.

                    Take for example this outrageous statement;

                    .

                    Intrinsicvalue says:
                    May 8, 2014 at 4:48 pm

                    […]

                    Interest Rates
                    You seem to be arguing in circles, so let’s simplify. Interest rates in 2011 were around 11% yet the economy was in recession

                    Interest rates in 2011 were not “around 11%”.

                    You should learn that if you’re going to make up shit, to make it sound plausible. “11%” is nowhere near credible.

                    You really are in La-La Land.

                    • My mistake. Meant to say 2008. Of course they weren’t anywhere near 11% on 2011, National were the Govt.

                  • Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue – You failed (again) to mention that unemployment is still at 6% (http://www.3news.co.nz/Unemployment-rate-remains-at-6-percent/tabid/423/articleID/343142/Default.aspx), and the “high” labour force participation rate is cloudede by the fact that under-employment is rising.

                    When Stats NZ defines “employed” as working one hour (or more) per week, paid or unpaid, the employment figures are now suspect.

                    This is back up by the lower than anticipated tax-take (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/243857/tax-take-down-but-surplus-%27on-track%27), by $743 million. This suggests that there is something fundamentally wrong with the economy.

                    So your glee at just one aspect of the stats is somewhat premature.

                    • Unemployment is at 6% because the migration figures have turned around, particularly the net migration with Australia. Jobs are being created, unemployment will fall, and only the lazy and indolent will be without work.

                    • Intrinsicvalue says:
                      May 12, 2014 at 3:18 pm

                      Unemployment is at 6% because the migration figures have turned around, particularly the net migration with Australia. Jobs are being created, unemployment will fall, and only the lazy and indolent will be without work.

                      Really? Is that the best you can do? Resort to bigotry?

                      Anyways, for someone throwing labels of “lazy and indolent”, you seem to be the one who practically lives on this blogsite. Even Gosman can’t be posting as much as you do.

        • Something that is apparent with our trolls is that they never rise to comments that underscore their role as trolls. Like the Anonymous Act Supporter label or the ratings for their troll skills I was giving a few weeks ago. It takes a great deal of discipline to stay on task like that, which just reinforces my impression that these guys are professional trolls. Even if they’re just self appointed trolls they very clearly understand what they’re doing and know what their job is.

          For the record that job is to waste a lot of time and muddy the waters – this is done by starting debates about pointless side issues and steering people away from the big picture.

          What is the big picture? We’ve had 30 years of evidence that neo-liberalism only benefits the 1% and screws the rest of us.

        • IV – last thing I remember, it was Labour and support parties in government that did exactly that, not National!

    • Intrinsicvalue says:
      May 7, 2014 at 10:22 pm

      Oh dear Selwyn, I though you at least were above the left wing spin.

      “…with mortgage interest rates on the climb…”
      Yet still far below the 11% under Labour.

      And as usual, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue leaves out the salient point that interests rates were higher pre-2008 because growth was higher, and the Reserve Bank had to ratchet up the OCR. As Treasury reported;

      Between 2000 and 2007, the New Zealand economy expanded by an average of 3.5% each year as private consumption and residential investment grew strongly. Annual inflation averaged 2.6%, inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1% to 3% target range, while the current account deficit averaged 5.5% of GDP over this period.

      The New Zealand economy entered recession in early 2008, before the effects of the global financial crisis set in later in the year. A drought over the 2007/08 summer led to lower production of dairy products in the first half of 2008. Domestic activity slowed sharply over 2008 as high fuel and food prices dampened domestic consumption, while high interest rates and falling house prices drove a rapid decline in residential investment.

      “Recent Economic Performance and Outlook”
      http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview/2012/09.htm

      As most people with a modest knowledge of economics understand (take note, Anonymous ACT Troll, Intrinsicvalue), the Reserve Bank Act demands that as the economy grows, so must interest rates to dampen demand, to keep inflation within the 1-3% inflation band.

      Even Dear Leader Key was forced to recently acknowledge the RBNZ’s role in raising interest rates to contain inflation;

      “It’s true we are the only developed country in the world that’s currently raising interest rates, but that’s because we are growing at a faster rate than most other countries around the world and we’ve got a very robust outlook. So while I think there will be some disappointment and frustration from homeowners, on the other side of the coin they can take real confidence that the strong economy will underpin good job opportunities and probably wage growth over time.” – John Key, 13 March 2014

      Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9822918/Mortgage-pain-time-OCR-rises-to-2-75-per-cent

      Of course Anonymous ACT Troll, Intrinsicvalue knows this. But his self-proclaimed (paid?) role is to lie, obfuscate, dissemble, and confuse the reader.

      It’s quite simple though:

      1. Always check his links. Thoroughly.

      Most of the time they do not support his contentions, but he is hoping most people won’t bother to click on them and read the material.

      2. Much of his comments are C&P from previous posts. He simply reposts his bullshit propaganda because his agenda is not to debate/discuss but to undermine and confuse. This includes his tactic of re-posting mis-information that has previously been shown to be false.

      3. When he quotes, without a citation, you can be certain it is fabricated.

      Quite simply, he is not to be trusted.

      This Public Service Announcement was brought to you by the letters, A, C, and T.

      • Interest rates were higher pre 2008 because of excessive Govt spending. Growth in the economy was tanking from early 206 Frank, you know this.

        Interest rates in 2014 are on the rise because of sustainable, private sector led growth. You know this too.

        • More mis-information from you. Annonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue.

          Your comment about “the economy was tanking from early 206 [sic]” is untrue. As Treasury quite clearly stated,

          Between 2000 and 2007, the New Zealand economy expanded by an average of 3.5% each year as private consumption and residential investment grew strongly. Annual inflation averaged 2.6%, inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1% to 3% target range, while the current account deficit averaged 5.5% of GDP over this period.

          “Recent Economic Performance and Outlook”
          http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview/2012/09.htm

          There was a dip in one quarter, as Treasury explained here;

          The New Zealand economy entered recession in early 2008, before the effects of the global financial crisis set in later in the year. A drought over the 2007/08 summer led to lower production of dairy products in the first half of 2008. Domestic activity slowed sharply over 2008 as high fuel and food prices dampened domestic consumption, while high interest rates and falling house prices drove a rapid decline in residential investment.

          “Recent Economic Performance and Outlook”
          http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview/2012/09.htm

          This contradicts and shows up your mis-leading statements.

          And you wonder why I refer to you as a lying troll? Wonder no more.

          • “Your comment about “the economy was tanking from early 206 [sic]” is untrue. ”

            That’s fairly typical Macskasy dishonesty. From early 2006 the quarterly growth rates collapsed, until the country slid into a technical recession. Go to http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/gdp-growth and set the date range. Your lies are so easy to expose Frank.

            • “Between 2000 and 2007, the New Zealand economy expanded by an average of 3.5% each year as private consumption and residential investment grew strongly. Annual inflation averaged 2.6%, inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1% to 3% target range, while the current account deficit averaged 5.5% of GDP over this period.”

              “By an AVERAGE”. This does not contradict my point Frank, and you are dishonest suggesting it does. My claims relate to from 2006, not 2000.

              Cullen had the extraordinary incompetence of being able to spend like a drunken sailor, enjoy favourable terms of trade, yet still strangle growth out of the economy before the GFC. Incredible.

              • Intrinsicvalue says:
                May 8, 2014 at 3:54 pm

                “Between 2000 and 2007, the New Zealand economy expanded by an average of 3.5% each year as private consumption and residential investment grew strongly. Annual inflation averaged 2.6%, inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1% to 3% target range, while the current account deficit averaged 5.5% of GDP over this period.”

                “By an AVERAGE”. This does not contradict my point Frank, and you are dishonest suggesting it does. My claims relate to from 2006, not 2000.

                Oh, I think you’re just demonstrated how you cherry-pick information to suit yourself, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue.

                Why 2006?

                Why not 2005?

                Or 2004?

                I’ll tell you why you lying, manipulative little troll – because it suits you, that’s why.

                Your selective mis-use of data shows how desperate you are to win your weird little obsessive war you’ve got going.

                You truly are fixated on this blogsite.

            • .

              Intrinsicvalue says:
              May 8, 2014 at 3:44 pm

              “Your comment about “the economy was tanking from early 206 [sic]” is untrue. ”

              That’s fairly typical Macskasy dishonesty. From early 2006 the quarterly growth rates collapsed, until the country slid into a technical recession. Go to http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/gdp-growth and set the date range. Your lies are so easy to expose Frank

              Really Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue? The Quarterly growth rates from 2006 “collapsed”?!?!

              Reallllly?

              Let me present the data for you from 2006 to 2008;

              2006 1.7%
              2007 3.6%
              2008 -1.9%

              Or a second set of figures, from the same dates, and same source;

              2006 1.5%
              2007 3.1%
              2008 0.2%

              Hmmmm, now where did I get those stats from?

              Actually… I think it was you! (Anyone seeking entertainment in high an ACT troll makes a fool of him (her?) self can read his post here: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/04/03/inequality-denial/#comment-211807 )

              That’s the trouble with lying right wing trolls – they forget to keep their story(s) straight.

              What a knob.

            • Intrinsicvalue says:
              May 8, 2014 at 3:44 pm

              […]

              That’s fairly typical Macskasy dishonesty. From early 2006 the quarterly growth rates collapsed, until the country slid into a technical recession.

              What?!

              A “recession from early 2006?!

              Intrinsicvalue says:
              May 8, 2014 at 3:59 pm

              […]

              Oh this is fun. A recession is signalled by 4 successive quarters with negative growth.

              Reallllly?! 😮

              Oh dear me, you really can’t get your story (ie; lies) straight, can you, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue?! 😀

              There were no ” 4 successive quarters with negative growth” in 2006.

              According you your own figures, sunshine, GDP growth was as follows;

              2000 2.3%
              2001 3.6%
              2002 4.9%
              Now here’s where it get’s interesting…
              2003 3.9%
              2004 3.5%
              2005 3.2%
              2006 1.7%
              2007 3.6%
              2008 -1.9%

              Or, from the other source you quoted,

              2000 3.6%
              2001 3.1%
              2002 4.4%
              2003 3.3%
              2004 4.8%
              2005 2.3%
              2006 1.5%
              2007 3.1%
              2008 0.2%
              2009 -1.7%
              2010 1.5%
              2011 1.4%

              https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/04/03/inequality-denial/#comment-211807

              Do you see any “recession” “from early 2006”?

              Do you?

              Does anyone?

              And you wonder why I dismiss you as an irrelevent lying, fanatical ACT troll whose self-proclaimed mission here is to lie and re-write recent history?!

              No wonder you’re anonymous.

              I wouldn’t put my name to your shit that you post either.

              • “There were no ” 4 successive quarters with negative growth” in 2006.”

                When did I claim there was? The evidence shows that growth was tanking from 2006 particularly during 2007, before the impacts of the GFC.

                “Quarterly growth rates from 2006 “collapsed”?!?!”

                Yes, and thanks for confirming that by your own stats. Although why you began with ANNUAL rates, goodness only knows.

          • “The New Zealand economy entered recession in early 2008, before the effects of the global financial crisis set in later in the year. A drought over the 2007/08 summer led to lower production of dairy products in the first half of 2008. Domestic activity slowed sharply over 2008 as high fuel and food prices dampened domestic consumption, while high interest rates and falling house prices drove a rapid decline in residential investment.”

            Oh this is fun. A recession is signalled by 4 successive quarters with negative growth. And where is thee any mention of the GFC? Treasury seem to be blaming the Govt’s inability to control internal price pressures for lower demand. I would concur.

            Need another gun, Frank, or another foot?

            • Oh, so now you are disputing Treasury., Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue?!

              Yoou’ve been caught out spreading lies and mis-leading statements, and now you’re blaming others for being found out?!

              Keep going, Anonymous ACT Troll Intrinsicvalue. With every word you print, you condemn yourself.

              No wonder you hide behind anonymity.

              You haven’t the balls to put your name to the garbage you write.

              🙂

              • “Oh, so now you are disputing Treasury., Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue?!”

                No.

                But keep posting your nonsense Frank, I’ll keep putting you in our place.

            • Treasury also said that it had wrongly estimated the level of cyclical tax income from 2006 on, and that the finance minister relied on those estimates and spent more than would have if estimates had been correct.

              A significant strategic feature of Cullen’s regime was paying down debt over tax cuts. National is following a very different strategy.

        • No, they are on the rise because the New Zealand economy growth is based on unstainable boom/bust policies such as reliance on fluctuating dairy prices and the housing boom.
          If you haven’t worked this out by now then I guess you never will.

        • If you think fluctuating dairy prices, the Auckland housing boom and disaster repairs in Christchurch equals sustainable private sector led growth then I suggest you enrol in Economics 101 at the nearest university real quick IV

          • I don’t. That’s a myth spread by the left for consumption by the ignorant. The growth is geographically widespread, and encompasses a wide range of industry groups. And the key difference is that it is not fuelled by run-away Govt spending. Labour can watch and learn.

            • Intrinsicvalue says:
              May 8, 2014 at 3:46 pm

              I don’t. That’s a myth spread by the left for consumption by the ignorant. The growth is geographically widespread, and encompasses a wide range of industry groups. And the key difference is that it is not fuelled by run-away Govt spending. Labour can watch and learn.

              Really?

              “Run away government spending?”

              So, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue, would you care to remind us just what it is that “Labour can watch and learn”?

              Especially when Labour posted nine consecutive budget surpluses during their nine years in office.

              Especially when Labour paid down sovereign debt from around $10.2 billion in 2008 to $54 billion in 2014 (and expected to rise to $60 billion over the next few years, according to Bill English – http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/136481/english-confirms-national-debt-set-to-rise).

              Jesus wept, not only are you an unmitigated liar – but you have the colossal cheek to deride Labour when the Nats have blown out our sovereign debt; wasted billions in pointless tax-cuts; and English has yet to post a single surplus in the five years he’s been Finance Minister!?!?

              Your deliberate, wilfull lying and misrepresenting situations is breath-taking.

              Hardly surprising that you’ve chosen to be anonymous. No one in their right mind would post the rubbish you do and have their name dragged through the mud.

              You really are the stereotypical troll… 😀

              • Yes Frank, Labour spent up large, mostly on election bribes, like interest free student loans and WFF.

                Labour last year in Govt resulted in a deficit of in excess of 1Bn$, and decade of forecast deficits. That was your legacy Frank.

              • “…and English has yet to post a single surplus in the five years he’s been Finance Minister!?!? ”

                A decade of deficits, Frank. Turned around inside 6 years. I know it irks you, but Labour left a deficit in 2008/09 (you conveniently forget that one), and a forecast of a decade more.

        • Intrinsicvalue says:
          May 8, 2014 at 8:54 am

          Interest rates were higher pre 2008 because of excessive Govt spending. Growth in the economy was tanking from early 206 Frank, you know this.

          Interest rates in 2014 are on the rise because of sustainable, private sector led growth. You know this too.

          Oh dear lord!

          Do you really believe your own spin?

          So rising interest rates under Labour was a sign of the “because of excessive Govt spending” – but under National it’s a sign of “growth”?

          How disingenuous!

          How fucken dishonest can you get, you ACT troll?! Jesus wept…

          • “So rising interest rates under Labour was a sign of the “because of excessive Govt spending” – but under National it’s a sign of “growth”? ”

            Yep. Growth had tanked under Labour yet interest rates remained high. How do you explain that one away Frank.?

                • IV, on whose payroll are you? Is it Cam, David or John? You are taking on a full time job commenting here, across the board!

                  A person running a business cannot afford so much time off.

                  • Huh? I’m not sure how long it takes you to type, but I don’t spend that long here each day.

                • Intrinsicvalue says:
                  May 12, 2014 at 3:22 pm

                  You don’t because you can’t.

                  Correct.

                  I can’t.

                  As in; I can’t be arsed with your repetitive lies and mis-information.

                  When right-wingers seek refuge in lying, they have nothing left.

                  You, my ACT Supporting friend, ran out of truth quite a while ago.

                  However, if you ever post something that is truthful, I’ll be the first to acknowledge it.

                  But unlikely.

      • When Frank posts, it is essential to check for the following:

        1. Misquoting of previous posts. I have numerous examples of this, and Frank has become something of an expert at it.
        2. Claims that are so silly you almost overlook disputing them. Again, I have numerous examples, including that there was no unemployment in the Soviet Union, https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/02/08/this-is-what-inequality-looks-like-in-nz-beneficiaries-vs-ceos/#comment-188132, parents who send their children to private schools don;t pay higher fees https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/02/05/how-on-earth-can-key-claim-the-asset-sale-program-is-a-success/#comment-186249, and the classic, that National were responsible for funding decisions around the rescue helicopter.
        3. Outright lies. I documented a pearler here https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/02/08/this-is-what-inequality-looks-like-in-nz-beneficiaries-vs-ceos/#comment-188132 when Frank tried to cover up his claims on the Soviet Union.

        There’s more, but that should be enough of a warning.

        • For those wondering what Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue is rambling about; he presented a piece of writing to attempt to prove that unemployment existed in the former USSR.

          Unfortunately for him, the document was eighty years old.

          He couldn’t find anything else more recent.

          And it was set during the 1930s, when the Soviet Union was gripped by massive famine.

          It wasn’t much “unemployment” that was the problem as approximately 7 million people perishing through starvation.

          Yet again, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue attempts to prove a point using an irrelevant, out-of-date piece of writing (which may or may not have been accurate, anyway).

          This troll is quite fixated.

          • “Unfortunately for him, the document was eighty years old. ”
            That’s right Frank. Historians place the highest value on contemporary evidence. The SU was in existence 80 years ago.
            “And it was set during the 1930s, when the Soviet Union was gripped by massive famine.”
            Irrelevant. Your claim was unequivocal, so no excuses.
            “It wasn’t much “unemployment” that was the problem as approximately 7 million people perishing through starvation.”
            You didn’t say it was the problem, Frank, you said it didn’t exist.
            You stuffed up.

        • Intrinsicvalue says:
          May 8, 2014 at 4:25 pm

          When Frank posts, it is essential to check for the following…

          What’s up, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue – have I touched a raw nerve, outting you as a liar?

          😀

          • Outing? You need evidence to out someone Frank. I’ve asked you numerous times to prove I lied, you’ve failed.

    • If you call the raising of red herrings and a total failure to answer questions put by Labour and the Greens “evisceration” then I suggest a long-overdue visit to Specsavers.

      I watched “Parliamentiary question time” on TV yesterday. The performance of many of the ‘National parliamentarians’ was nothing short of disgraceful. I was also disgusted at the way that the Speaker ruled on several occasions that questions had been answered satisfactorily, when clearly they had not been answered at all.

      And then we had members like Wilkinson asking questions that were clearly being used simply to use up the remaining available time by revisiting pre-budget press-releases that had been adequately covered and discussed by the media days earlier. Their only purpose was to waste time so that other more pertinent questions could not be raised by the opposition.

      But that said, I VERY seldomly watch Parliament on TV so maybe yesterday’s session was pretty much the norm?

  3. “But what the country needs now is the next roll out of solution-based policies”…

    Its all very well rolling out this policy or that but its all piecemeal and not clearly rooted in anything. What we need is a clearly articulated VISION upon which to hang good solution-focused policies. Someone needs to articulate a Martin Luther King-like ‘ I Have a Dream’ vision of what it is we stand for and what we want to see (the good society).

    “Without a vision, the people Perish” Proverbs 29:18 Never more true than now…

  4. Selwyn, this is a good, well-researched blogpost. You’re on the nail – especially with economic references;

    It shouldn’t be too hard considering the level of government debt National has racked up since coming into office – up 442% from $10.2b in 2008 to $54b in 2014, with mortgage interest rates on the climb, and the current account deficit set to blow out once again.

    National’s huge debt was made worse by two unaffordable tax cuts in 2009 and 2010.

    That added billions to our indebtedness.

    Add to that a lack of job creation programmes (the ChCh rebuild delayed) and a drop in tax revenue, and the Nats are exposed as fiscally incompetant.

    When Labour promotes it’s variable savings policy to contain inflation, as opposed to the RBNZ’s OCR – I predict their support will jump. The Nat’s choice will be;

    1. Scaremonger, as Muldoon did in 1975,

    2. Steal Labour’s policy; adapt it; and adopt it.

    And when New Zealanders understand more fully that we are once again an indebted (sovereign debt) nation, after Labour paid nearly all of it of – that will show the Nats to be less the “responsible fiscal managers” than people thought.

    There’s a whole truckload of public perception about to be changed on that issue.

    The response of the Right will be to mislead; misrepresent; and outright lie to the public. (As Anonymous ACT Troll, Intrinsicvalue, is known to do.)

    As you said, Selwyn, it’s Game On!

    • Also what about the trauma and suffering National have caused, by destroying people’s livelihoods, forcing people off unemployment to live under bridges, and their attacks on employment rights.

      What I will most remember when National is turfed out is that they wouldn’t even pay parliamentary cleaners a decent wage.

      It reminds me of Scrooge in A Christmas Tale, but that would be unfair on Scrooge, as unlike with Nat MPs there was hope for redemption for him at the end. 😉

  5. I think we should remember that the last Roy Morgan appeared to be a rogue poll and the most recent results are not too dissimilar to the poll before the rogue.
    Yes National are in turmoil, but we should be waiting for the next two Roy Morgans to see if the turmoil creates a trend.
    It’s fine to keep twisting the knife at the moment, but Labour needs some big policies for when the dust settles in a week or so.
    Welfare and tax are the obvious big issues that Labour has been silent on – core Labour issues too

  6. While perception can be very important to influence polls and potentially the coming general election, relying merely on the presently negative perception of the government and even John Key now, that will not be a safe enough plan to win the election.

    Labour, Greens and others will be best advised, to not start thinking, we are on track, and now have a good chance of winning. Scandals and exposed misconduct or questionable conduct may create momentums, but they never tend to last in people’s minds, so the government will have a come back of sorts after this.

    Hence it is important to present the right set of policies, and we will in the weeks leading up to the election need Labour and Greens to present well thought through, smart, convincing and future focused policies, that will convince enough of the voting public, that they are a competent, trustworthy and sensible alternative.

    So do not celebrate too early, the election will be a close call, and this can only be the start of the game change.

  7. Brilliant. Absolutely great news.

    Long may this trend continue in favour of a Labour/Greens/Mana coalition government in September, or sooner.

    Of course, this latest RM poll result will send Key, Collins et all running to buddy toilet scraper WhaleOil for help!

  8. Although John Key will laugh it off as being just a reaction for a bad week for National, the Nats will be a bit worried by this. Up till now they didn’t think there was any way they could lose and now they are not so sure. National’s real problem here is that they are under attack from three sides – Labour, the Greens and NZ First. If they concentrate on one then the other two get to make mischief. Key thought he had his back covered by ACT, the Conservatives the Maori Party and the MSM. The first two are very nearly dead ducks, the third is unreliable at best and his ministers are doing a good job of wrecking his formerly lovey-dovey relationship with the fourth. Expect the National Party Dirty Tricks Brigade to start dishing out dirt in large quantities very soon.

  9. Mike, I happened to be watching the 5.30 News on Prime TV tonight (not my usual station), and the report on mmigration Minister Michael Woodhouse was compelling viewing. Reporter Barry Soper basically trashed Woodhouses’ reputation.

    I expect the Nats to drop even further in the next Roy Morgan poll (and maybe others as well).

  10. I can’t get over why you engage the paid trolls Frank. Don’t feed the trolls.
    He’s a pain in the @rse that basically just wastes your time engaging with him, when you could be researching and being incisive. Mark Twain said “Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.” He should have said “Never argue with people who are paid by right-wing stupid people to be like themselves….”
    Frank, you are too valuable as a commentator to be wasting your time engaging with someone who is half a braincell brighter than a slater.
    The troll’s time would be better spent devoted to tuning his banjo and perfecting his onanism skillset.
    Your time would be better spent exposing the corruption, deceit, lies and abuse of statistics by the right and their lapdog media.
    Please don’t feed the trolls.

  11. And now for the humour:

    Labour think we have an interest rate crisis.

    Labour think we have an export crisis.
    “New Zealand Exports Growth Break Records; Economy Predicted to Surge Until 2015”
    http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/550349/20140430/new-zealand-exports-china-dairy.htm

    Labour think we have a manufacturing crisis.
    “New Zealand manufacturing activity expanded for a 16th straight month in January, driven by new orders and production, suggesting the relatively strong kiwi dollar hasn’t been enough to dent activity.”
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11201460

    There’s more to come!!

    • “New Zealand manufacturing activity expanded for a 16th”

      Cool story bro…
      Where was it at 16 months ago? Care to show us a graph of manufacturing activity since 2008?

          • I heard and saw the news on radio, television and now online, they all report a substantial shortfall in tax take! So while we get fed the mantra of all is great and we live in a “rockstar economy”, the figures do not match up. Indeed, if the economy was growing and booming as the Nat spin masters like to tell us, we would have growth in tax revenue, but we do NOT!

            So it is a lie, that we have a “booming” economy, it only benefits a few, who do not spend as most, they spend only on expanding their wealth investments and power, not at the supermarket and paying GST. They may buy extra real estate and so, but that is GST exempt, while it expands the portfolios of “investment” and wealth.

            So IV and other slow brainers here, have to go back to economics 101 and learn the damned basics, I am afraid.

            • “I heard and saw the news on radio, television and now online, they all report a substantial shortfall in tax take! ”

              Really? You need to read more widely. And so does David Parker!

              “The Government’s financial statements for the nine months to 31 March show core Crown tax revenue was $2.6 billion or 6.3 per cent higher than at the same time last year, reflecting stronger growth in source deductions, GST and corporate tax.”

              http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1405/S00158/govt-accounts-closer-to-forecast-in-nine-months.htm

              • INTRINSIC “VIRUS” – I was perhaps using flawed wording, what I was meaning to talk about is a shortfall in the sense of tax take not developing as predicted and expected. That does not mean that I questioned that there has been a gradual, slow increase in tax revenue.

                So I hope you get that now! And do not forget, that much of this “growth” is due to the new construction and related activities in the Christchurch rebuild. The rest is mainly due to dairy exports to China, and that is not an achievement by this government, it was Labour that agreed with China on a FTA, and it is farmers doing the exporting, not John Key, or any of his below average quality ministers!

                Judith Collins was more interested in ensuring further access to the Chinese market for her partner’s business, than ensuring access for all exporters.

                This government is at least close to being corrupt, and not delivering much at all, that is apart grand talking and boasting, what others deliver to make them look good!

                • “And do not forget, that much of this “growth” is due to the new construction and related activities in the Christchurch rebuild. The rest is mainly due to dairy exports to China, and that is not an achievement by this government, it was Labour that agreed with China on a FTA, and it is farmers doing the exporting, not John Key, or any of his below average quality ministers!”

                  Fiction. The growth is broad based and goes well beyond just Christchurch and China.

                  • Intrinsicvalue says:
                    May 12, 2014 at 3:25 pm

                    […]

                    Fiction. The growth is broad based and goes well beyond just Christchurch and China.

                    So in your mind, everyone is wrong except you?!

                    Hmmm, that’s quite an ego you have there, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue.

                    You have have your own blog. Maybe call it “Political Creature” or somesuch? 😉

            • Sorry Marc, ‘^ whale oil repost’ is obviously not for you, it’s for intrinsicvalue at 3.48pm.
              For some reason my reply went to the bottom of the comments…maybe TDB is preventing replies to IV because it’s a fucking waste of time?

              • I think a better description would be “intrinsicvirus”, as the incessant posting by some here is like a virus hard or impossible to shake off.

          • Intrinsicvalue says:
            May 9, 2014 at 3:48 pm

            This wrong…

            http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1405/S00162/low-tax-take-high-spending-leaves-books-in-the-red.htm

            According to David Parker “For the fifth month in a row, the Government’s accounts have undershot expectations with expenses $423 million higher than forecast and tax revenue $829 million below forecast.”

            The problem is he MISREAD the data.
            Expenses were actually $423m BELOW forecast.

            Another misleading (aka, lie) from Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue.

            *sighs*

        • “Manufacturing” does according to statistical narrow brain criteria mean, if you slice a loaf of bread, you are a “manufacturer”. If you slice up a log of wood or tree, you are according to statistical criteria “manufacturing”, and if you gut a rabbit, you are “manufacturing”, and so it goes.

          “Manufacturing” must be looked at closely, and what we get is the “gross” and generous interpretation of manufacturing reported on us, which does not mean it is about making camenbert or brie out of milk, it means it mostly covers making crude milk powder or so. Same with raw fish, logs and so much. It was not surprising to me, that a recent 3rd degree program revealed Oravida (the Collins family associated business) have heaps of Kauri swamp logs on storage, and they plan, like the other “smart” guy, to probably slice it into boards, that will “qualify” as table tops or so, thus “manufactured” products.

          That will earn them big here and there, but that is hardly something like building a machine, a motor, creating software or producing real value added food products, which this country could learn heaps from and earn big, from what they do in Europe and East Asia.

          But we do not want such “business” Key says, we want only to deliver milk powder and raw logs, fish and nothing much else, perhaps coal and petroleum. Welcome third world, I suggest.

        • Kim Campbell, chief executive of the Employers and Manufacturers Association (Northern), said,

          “New Zealanders are early adopters of technology – we’ve had to be, to get our labour costs down…”

          http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11245238

          “Labour costs down”?!

          That does not bode well for unemployment which is stuck at 6%, with even higher under-employment. Or getting wages up, if the aim is to “get our labour costs down”.

          There is the poroblem in that one statement.

  12. The country was in recession in 2008, Fatty. Are you sure you want to see that data? My point is simply that Labour wouldn’t know a crisis if one bit them on the arse.

    • Intrinsicvalue says:
      May 9, 2014 at 3:36 pm

      The country was in recession in 2008, Fatty.

      Really?

      In recession?

      Which begs the question why Key proceeded with two unaffordable tax cuts, which were funded by borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars each week.

      That was gross fiscal irresponsibility, and worsened our country’s debt.

      If Labour had borrowed billions to fund a clear election bribe, you’d be screaming hysterically.

      But when your beloved National-ACT party does it, increasing our debt from around $10 billion to $56 billion, you seem content at that?

      Your ideological blindness comes at a heavy price, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue. As is your acceptance of fiscal ineptitude.

      By the way, most (if not all) your “data” is worthless.

      • “Really? In recession?”

        Yep. Four successive quarters. Here’s the GDP data:

        2007
        1.2
        0.8
        0.6
        0.1

        2008
        -0.1
        -1.2
        -0.2
        -0.6
        http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/gdp-growth

        Declining growth through 2007, technical recession by end 2008.

        “Which begs the question why Key proceeded with two unaffordable tax cuts, which were funded by borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars each week. ”

        Well it works like this. In a recession it is fairly standard economic practice to try to stimulate the economy. You either do that by borrowing and the Govt. spending your money for you, or you borrow and let the people spend their own money. National did the latter, with immediate and stunning results.

        2009
        -1.0
        -0.2
        +0.6
        +1.5
        +0.2
        +1.0
        -0.3
        -0.5
        +0.9
        +0.8
        +0.7

        and every quarter thereafter in growth.

        That’a how to manage an economy out of a recession.

        • Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue…

          “Really? In recession?”

          Yep. Four successive quarters. Here’s the GDP data:

          2007
          1.2
          0.8
          0.6
          0.1

          2008
          -0.1
          -1.2
          -0.2
          -0.6

          Yep. Four quarters of recession in 2008.

          Amazing. You seem not to have heard of the Global Financial Crisis? A crisis that started in mid-2007, and was exacerbated by several droughts that impacted on our agricultural sector?

          The New Zealand economy entered recession in early 2008, before the effects of the global financial crisis set in later in the year.

          A drought over the 2007/08 summer led to lower production of dairy products in the first half of 2008.

          Domestic activity slowed sharply over 2008 as high fuel and food prices dampened domestic consumption, while high interest rates and falling house prices drove a rapid decline in residential investment.

          “Recent Economic Performance and Outlook”
          http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview/2012/09.htm

          But you know all this. You’re simply obssessed with spinning a distorted picture of what happened.

          Truly dishonest of you, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue.

          What you’ve left out is that New Zealand was well placed to weather the GFC and recession, as Key himself pointed out,

          “The level of public debt in New Zealand was $8 billion when National came into office in 2008. It’s now $53 billion, and it’s forecast to rise to $72 billion in 2016. Without selling minority shares in five companies, it would rise to $78 billion. Our total investment liabilities, which cover both public and private liabilities, are $150 billion – one of the worst in the world because of the high levels of private debt in New Zealand.”

          http://www.national.org.nz/mixed-ownership.aspx

          “If you go back to 2005, when the previous government were in office, they had a number, you know, a little bit less than ours, but not a lot less, there was a 180,000 children in poverty, I think this shows 240,000 on that measure.

          Back then, New Zealand recorded the biggest surplus in New Zealand’s history…”

          http://tvnz.co.nz/breakfast-news/mind-gap-key-tackles-child-poverty-video-5766147

          “Firstly let me start by saying that New Zealand does not face the balance sheet crisis of 1984, or even of the early 1990s. Far from having dangerously high debt levels, gross debt to GDP is around a modest 25 percent and net debt may well be zero by 2008.”

          “In other words, there is no longer any balance sheet reason to justify an aggressive privatisation programme of the kind associated with the 1980s Labour Government.”

          Friday, 4 March 2005, 11:07 am
          Speech: New Zealand National Party

          http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0503/S00102.htm

          “The level of public debt in New Zealand was $8 billion when National came into office in 2008. It’s now $53 billion, and it’s forecast to rise to $72 billion in 2016.

          Without selling minority shares in five companies, it would rise to $78 billion.

          Our total investment liabilities, which cover both public and private liabilities, are $150 billion – one of the worst in the world because of the high levels of private debt in New Zealand.”

          http://www.national.org.nz/mixed-ownership.aspx

          So really, even John Key is calling you as a liar.

          You are a liar, aren’t you? Off course you are.

          Question is – why do you persist? Are you paid to do this?

          Or, more likely, are you psychologically unhinged?

          Because no one in their right mind keeps re-posting the lies you do, week after week.

          Not when the truth is readily available at a few mouse-clicks.

          The fact is, Anonymous ACT Supporter Intrinsicvalue, you’re doing this as a distraction from National’s own incompetance.

          The same Nationakl government that has;

          * racked up debt,

          * failed to create jobs as Key promised during the 2009 Jobs Summit and 2011 Budget to create 170,000 new jobs (not jobs to replace those lost in the on-going recession)

          * predicated economic growth on the Christchurch rebuild and Auckland property boom,

          * Seen unemployment stalled at 6% – with under-employment rising,

          * given two unaffordable tax cuts that were funded purely by borrowing from offshore,

          * engaged in sleazy corporate deals and corporate welfare,

          * and blamed beneficiaries for being on welfare.

          That is what this is all about. Distraction.

          • “You seem not to have heard of the Global Financial Crisis? A crisis that started in mid-2007, and was exacerbated by several droughts that impacted on our agricultural sector? ”
            NZ’s economic growth was tanking from before ‘id 207’ Frank. Refer to the stats above, and to previously posted data from 2006. The reason was not the GFC or the ‘drought’, it was poor Govt. policies.

            “What you’ve left out is that New Zealand was well placed to weather the GFC and recession, ”
            No, Frank, Labour left NZ with a large internal deficit in 2008/09, and a forecast of a decade of deficits to come. Labour left NZ with a high spending, low growth outlook, which National have turned around.

            National have:

            Turned around an internal deficit to a surplus.
            Presided over record export receipts.
            Created in excess of the 170,000 jobs promised.
            Increased employment participation.
            Used the tax system wisely to return money to it’s rightful home, our pockets.

            There in lies the difference. Labour are incompetent economic managers. They are in the pockets of the unions and special interest groups, which is why they do little other than focus on the stuff that no-one cares about.

            • Intrinsicvalue says:
              May 11, 2014 at 3:22 pm

              “You seem not to have heard of the Global Financial Crisis? A crisis that started in mid-2007, and was exacerbated by several droughts that impacted on our agricultural sector? ”
              NZ’s economic growth was tanking from before ‘id 207′ Frank. Refer to the stats above, and to previously posted data from 2006. The reason was not the GFC or the ‘drought’, it was poor Govt. policies.

              “What you’ve left out is that New Zealand was well placed to weather the GFC and recession, ”
              No, Frank, Labour left NZ with a large internal deficit in 2008/09, and a forecast of a decade of deficits to come. Labour left NZ with a high spending, low growth outlook, which National have turned around.

              Well, Anonymous Act Supporter Intrinsicvalue, your political master, the Rt Hon (*cough*) John Key disagrees with you;

              “The level of public debt in New Zealand was $8 billion when National came into office in 2008. It’s now $53 billion, and it’s forecast to rise to $72 billion in 2016. Without selling minority shares in five companies, it would rise to $78 billion. Our total investment liabilities, which cover both public and private liabilities, are $150 billion – one of the worst in the world because of the high levels of private debt in New Zealand.”

              http://www.national.org.nz/mixed-ownership.aspx

              You are now simply repeating your oft-quoted lies. *yawn*

              Everyone – from the Prime Minister up – knows that Labour paid down most of our sovereign debt and Cullen posted surplus after surplus.

              By contract, National has;

              * increased our debt from $8 billion to an estimated $56 billion,

              * English has never posted a surplus,

              * our economic growth is based on a natural disaster and a housing bubble in Auckland (a looming economic disaster)

              * Unemployment is almost double what we had under Labour,

              and,

              * Labour’s Finance Minister did not have to sign off on a policy that now restricts young couples from buying their first homes. (Something which takes us back to the days of Muldoonism.)

              You can spin your bullshit all you like, but you’re wasting your time. National’s economic policies are not working.

              Anyway, what would you know about economics and fiscal policy? You may own a few houses as a parasitic speculator, but you probably wouldn’t know how the share market operates…?

              • Which part of the statement you credited to John Key contradicts what I posted?

                But as to the record, under National we have lower inflation, lower interest rates, a lower internal deficit, lower debt to GDP, lower household debt, lower crime, etc etc etc than in 2008. Read it and weep.

            • Intrinsicvalue says:
              May 11, 2014 at 3:22 pm

              National have:

              Turned around an internal deficit to a surplus.

              Say whut?!

              English has yet to post a surplus!

              And by Key’s own admission, his useless government has increased out debt from Labour’s $8 billion to currently over $56 billion!

              …”The level of public debt in New Zealand was $8 billion when National came into office in 2008. It’s now $53 billion, and it’s forecast to rise to $72 billion in 2016. Without selling minority shares in five companies, it would rise to $78 billion. Our total investment liabilities, which cover both public and private liabilities, are $150 billion – one of the worst in the world because of the high levels of private debt in New Zealand…”

              http://www.national.org.nz/mixed-ownership.aspx

              So really, you’re telling us more porkies?

              Presided over record export receipts.

              We should bloody hope so! Even the Nats couldn’t screw up a demand from off-shore, as the global economy picks up.

              That would be just too f****n much!

              Created in excess of the 170,000 jobs promised.

              Prove that comment with a citation.

              Because otherwise, it’s just another lie from you.

              Increased employment participation.

              Nah, rubbish.

              Unemployment is still at 6% – almost double what it was in 2007 (3.4%), and under-employment is rising.

              NZ real unemployment steady at 8.5%

              Used the tax system wisely to return money to it’s rightful home, our pockets.

              You mean two tax cuts funded by massive borrowings from offshore that blew out our sovereign debt from $8 billion in 2007/08 to around $56 billion under National?!

              After the first tax-cut;

              Government now borrowing $450 million a week – claim

              After the second tax cut;

              Govt borrowing $380m a week

              That’s quite a trick.

              As usual, you’ve posted nothing but ACT propaganda – and all of it untrue.

              No wonder you don’t put a name to your rubbish.

              • “Say whut?!
                English has yet to post a surplus!”

                National inherited a $1bn + deficit in 2008/09, and a further decade of forecast deficits. They will post a surplus in 2015, some 4 years before Labour would have.

                “”Increased employment participation.”
                Nah, rubbish.”

                Nah, fact. “But the labour force grew by 82,000 over the same period as the participation rate (the employed and those looking for work, as a share of the working age population) climbed to 69.3 per cent – a record high and up from 67.9 per cent a year ago.” http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11251372

  13. I have to agree not to waste to much time on IntinsicNationalTroll .

    Everyone at this site, even Gosman knows IntrinsicTroll is just here to pump out the nats spin and bullshit.

    But back on topic ………….I think the polls underestimate how much the Nats will lose the election by. Here’s just a few things which help get them voted out ….

    Asset sales

    Christchurch

    Surveillance state

    First time home buyers priced out of the market

    Higher education costs

    Cronyism & corruption

    etc etc etc

    Without Key National are nothing ………… they are on very thin ice.

    • Ok, I’ll play your game.

      Here’s what will cost Labour the election:

      Cunliffe is unpopular.
      Cunliffe is untrustworthy.
      Union cronyism.
      Labour are hopeless when it comes to the economy.
      The economy is booming.
      The Greens are toxic.
      Kiwi Power.
      Kiwi Assure.
      Kiwi Build.
      VSR’s and other ideas that are brain farts.

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