How Labour lose Ikaroa-Rawhiti

By
Martyn Bradbury
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10
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Here is how Labour lose Ikaro-Rawhiti now the Greens have made this a four horse race.

Green
The Daily Blog tip line is running hot as to who the candidate is and if it’s true, it’s a major coup for the Green Party. The candidate must break the perception that the Greens are a white middle class party and while having little chance of winning, the profile will be able to generate a national profile to help facilitate that perception change. Out of Auckland’s 18 electorates the Greens only scored a percentage higher than their national result in 4 of those electorates. If the Greens want to get to 15%, they need a far larger turn out in Auckland from Maori and Pacific Island voters.

Ikaroa-Rawhiti provides that opportunity to connect with that electorate.

The problem for Labour is if the Green candidate selected inadvertently hits Labour in a place electorally that Labour can’t compete with. I’ll leave further examination of that until the official announcement of the Green candidate tomorrow.

MANA
Te Hamua will generate a very different type of campaign. If he can couple his strong roots in Gisborne, with his strong social media presence with an appeal to the youth vote in the urban part of the electorate he has a real possibility of a spill over winner here. As the nephew of Parekura Horomia, Te Hamua will answer if Ikaroa-Rawhiti’s support for Labour was at a Party level or at a personal level.

Maori Party
Na Raihania’s problems are all internal. As a member of the Te Ururoa Flavell faction, he has a Party divided at every level within the electorate with the remainder defecting to MANA. This By-election has every possibility of being the death rattle for the Maori Party.

Labour
And here is where Labour really risk losing the electorate. Firstly Labour are supremely confident the electorate is theirs to win and don’t see any real competition and that hubris could ultimately be their downfall in the candidate selection. Some of the more conservative branches have an issue with Meka Whaitiri as a candidate and the last thing the Labour hierarchy want is a moral issue play out to a national audience and are considering parachuting Shane Taurima in. However it works out there will be discontent and discontent will breed a level of resentment that can be easily bled away to whatever candidate is perceived as having the momentum.

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10 COMMENTS

  4. This must be one of the few occassions where splitting the left vote doesn’t risk a right wing candidate sneaking through and winning the electorate (which is still fought on a FPP basis).

    It now depends on how left Ikaro-Rawhiti wants to go.

    And even if Labour wins, if Mana is a close second, it should send a strong message to the Labour hierarchy that the “middle ground” is fast becoming uninhabitable…

  5. The problem is, nothing will change whoever wins.

    Politics has become a cesspool of corruption and lies, and parliament has degenerated into a macabre theatre where scientifically and financially illiterate fools rant and shout at one another, arguing at the level of 12-year-olds about things they are only vaguely familiar with, always with the best interests of money-lenders and corporations at the fore.

    • You say nothing will change, but things have changed under National. I don’t like Labour but there is a difference between worse and worser. Your choice of who goes into the cesspool makes a slight difference. In Paula Bennett’s case, her getting into power is making life hell of so many people, and it would have been good if she didn’t get in.

      • Then this adage becomes real – do you want your legs cut off at the knees (Labour) or at the hip (National). A lose, lose situation is by definition a lose situation. I agree we can change and your right lets not let these nasty buggers hold any electorate seats.

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